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Might have to make a new thread in here titled “Our Summer without baseball”Comment -
Arizona economy going to get crushed this spring.Comment -
10:14 pm: Nicholson-Smith hears that the union has discussed the possibility of lowering its demand on the pre-arb bonus pool to $70MM this season, followed by $5MM raises annually. That’d still be a rather significant gap above the league’s proposed flat $40MM mark, although it’d be down $10MM — the same amount of MLB’s most recent move — from its last offer.
10:10 pm: Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet report (Twitter links) that some players are “encouraged” by the league’s movement on core economics. However, the union has expressed concern about the possibility of an international draft, which would inherently involve those players no longer getting a choice of their first employer. That’s been of particular concern to some Latin American players, according to Sportsnet.
Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reports that the union will soon send back a counteroffer, with multiple reports indicating tonight’s discussions could carry over into the early morning hours. Nicholson-Smith describes the international draft/qualifying offer as the biggest obstacle, hearing that the sides are “close” on the numbers for things like the CBT and pre-arb bonus pool (Twitter links).
9:35 pm: Sawchik adds that the “gap has closed” today, but he cautions there are “still issues to work through.” Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe tweets that some on the players’ side don’t believe a deal is close to being finalized. The union is still reviewing the terms of the league’s offer.
9:17 pm: MLB’s proposal contained a 12-team postseason field, reports Travis Sawchik of the Score (on Twitter). The union was only amenable to a 14-team playoff that would’ve introduced the “ghost win” for division winners, according to Sawchik, an idea that proved a non-starter for the league.
8:44 pm: Drellich and Ken Rosenthal report that the league has proposed a bonus pool that would hold flat at $40MM each season throughout the terms of the CBA. That’d involve a $1.33MM annual payment from each of the league’s 30 teams, which would be counted against every club’s luxury tax calculations. The Athletic also reports the year-over-year breakdown the league is offering on both the base tax threshold and the league minimum salary (annual CBT and minimums, respectively):
2022: $230MM, $700K
2023: $232MM, $715K
2024: $236MM, $730K
2025: $240MM, $750K
2026: $242MM, $770K
Additionally, Drellich and Rosenthal report a pair of the important conditions the league has attached to its most recent proposal (Twitter links). Most notably, MLB is hoping to introduce a fourth level of penalization to the luxury tax thresholds. Under the last CBA, there was a base tax threshold (set at $210MM in 2021) followed by levels of surcharge taxes for clubs that a) exceeded the tax by between $20MM and $40MM and for b) clubs that exceeded the tax by more than $40MM, with clubs greater penalties for reaching each tier. The league’s latest proposal would add a third surcharge level for teams that go more than $60MM above the base tax marker (with presumably even more penalties) in an obvious effort to curtail teams from blowing by the thresholds, as the Dodgers did last year and as many believe the Mets are prepared to do in 2022.
Additionally, MLB is tying the introduction of an international draft to the elimination of the qualifying offer. Removing draft pick compensation for signing free agents has been a goal of the union’s throughout the process. Drellich hears that MLB is also pursuing expedited authority for all rules changes, which would only be made over an offseason.
The Athletic reports a few more minor provisions of the league’s last offer. MLB is willing to make the first six picks of the domestic amateur draft determined by lottery — it had previously been at five — with limits on how many consecutive seasons a club could be eligible based on market size. The league’s proposal would also include a limit on the number of times a player can be optioned to the minors within a season (five), would grant a full year of service time to the top two finishers in Rookie of the Year voting and would award teams additional draft picks for carrying high-performing players on their Opening Day rosters.
7:57 pm: Yesterday, Major League Baseball set tonight as its latest deadline for a new collective bargaining agreement to preserve a 162-game schedule. The league and Players Association have been meeting throughout the day. The tenor and specifics of those conversations has been kept relatively quiet, although some details have begun to trickle out.
Most notably, Evan Drellich and Andy McCullough of the Athletic report (on Twitter) that the league has offered a small bump on the competitive balance tax. The league is now offering to set the base CBT threshold at $230MM in 2022 and would see that figure rise to $242MM by the end of a five-year CBA. That’s up $2MM in Year One and $4MM by 2026 relative to the league’s offer yesterday. Whether the union has moved on the tax today isn’t clear; previously, the MLBPA had sought a $238MM figure for the upcoming season that would rise as high as $263MM by the end of the CBA term.
That would appear to be a minor move in the players’ favor on the surface, although Drellich cautions the rest of the league’s offer is unclear. Yesterday’s proposal of a $228MM base tax marker was said to come with “major strings attached,” and The Athletic reports today that MLB’s offer contains “other issues players are concerned with.”
Without knowing the full terms of the league’s offer, it’s impossible to hypothesize whether the sides are making progress towards any sort of agreement. In addition to the CBT, prominent topics of discussion include the expanded playoff field, the extent of a bonus pool to award excellent pre-arbitration players, and the league’s desire to institute a draft for international amateurs. MLB has also pushed to expedite the process by which it could implement on-field rules changes.
The union agreed last week to give the league authority to more quickly implement a few specific changes — namely a restriction on defensive shifts, larger bases and a pitch clock. However, MLB is seeking broad autonomy to unilaterally implement any on-field rules alteration within 45 days of informing the union. Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports tweeted this afternoon that expedited window was among the conditions attached to the league’s willingness to move the luxury tax upwards (although it’s unlikely to be the only tradeoff).
Dorsey also adds that the league may be targeting some form of “penalty for excessive spending.” What form that would take isn’t clear, although the union adamantly pushed back against the league’s push earlier in negotiations for stricter penalties for teams that exceeded the luxury tax. MLB agreed to take those off the table, but it’s possible the league is hoping to reintroduce something to that effect in exchange for an increase in the thresholds themselves.
Regarding the bonus pool, there was an immediate $50MM gap at last check. MLB had offered to allocate $30MM annually to that system throughout the term of an agreement. The union sought $80MM for that pool in 2022 and wanted that figure to rise by a few million dollars each year thereafter. Dorsey hears the league could be willing to go to $50MM on the bonus pool but is tying that to the union signing off on a 14-team postseason. The MLBPA has expressed amenability to a 14-team playoff but would prefer a 12-team system, and it’s not clear MLB moving from $30MM to $50MM on the bonus pool would be a sufficient enough incentive in the union’s eyes.
The parties continue to discuss these issues in an attempt to close the gap tonight. The league has already canceled the first two series of the regular season. It indicated those games could be made up in the event of an agreement today, but MLB has suggested another week’s worth of games would be scrapped if the parties don’t come to terms in the coming hours.Comment -
So no deal today. Now it sounds like it's the players faultComment -
Let's see what Cross has to say about these last few comments
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From Rosenthal this morning.
Good to hear the latest deadline included another lifeline, and that the baseball owners and players will talk again Thursday morning. As ridiculous as their dispute is, it would reach a new level of embarrassment if the season was compromised by the inability of the parties to figure out what to do with the international draft and direct draft-pick compensation, two issues most fans probably never imagined could take down the sport.
Yet, here we are, the parties forever trapped in their bubbles, seemingly unable to recognize they’re about to drive the game to the abyss. I will repeat, one last time: Not a single game should be lost, especially not over matters that initially appeared to be secondary concerns. And while the owners are mostly to blame for initiating the lockout and pulling one stunt after another in negotiations, the union had a chance Wednesday to accelerate the endgame. Instead, it chose to continue the fight.
All those core economic issues that have caused such handwringing throughout the 99-day owners’ lockout — they’re practically agreed upon. The parties are within range on the luxury-tax thresholds, on the pre-arbitration bonus pool, on the minimum salaries. Now all the negotiators must do is find a way to satisfy the league’s desire for an international draft and the union’s desire to eliminate the qualifying-offer system, but heaven forbid the parties accomplish that easily. Most Latino members vehemently oppose a draft, putting the union in a difficult — but not unmanageable — position.
Both the league and union have insisted, “Our poor relationship has no bearing on this. This is simply a negotiation.” Yet, the distrust between the parties continues to color these talks. In fact, it is the defining aspect of these talks. If the parties can’t salvage the season quickly, they will deserve every bit of wrath they get from angry fans and disgusted members of Congress who are threatening the sport’s antitrust exemption.
The league had to spring one more trap door as this pitiful drama appeared to be reaching a merciful conclusion, making a trade of direct-draft pick compensation for an international draft a must even though it has known for some time that the union firmly opposed the draft. And the union, faced with yet another last-minute bull rush from MLB, found it easier to complain about the league’s tactics than navigate a way out.
How could the union have not anticipated the international draft would become a major issue? Why didn’t the union signal its opposition to the draft as loudly as the league signaled it would not move on age-based free agency, eligibility for salary arbitration and revenue sharing? Did the union simply expect the league to drop its intense desire to introduce a new entry system for international amateurs, seeking both reform and, as always, greater cost control?
The negotiating process gets more aggravating by the minute, but for all the momentum that was lost Wednesday, an escape is still possible. The union, after rejecting the league’s three options for an international draft, extended the talks by proposing to eliminate direct draft-pick compensation in the 2022-23 offseason, then bring it back the following winter along with the current international system if no agreement on a draft could be reached by Nov. 15, 2022.
The written form of that proposal arrived after the league’s 6 p.m. ET “deadline” Wednesday, so commissioner Rob Manfred went ahead and announced the cancellation of games until April 14 — four series worth, and counting. Of course, the union had made a counter-offer that included proposals on the issues earlier in the day, but enough with this absurd play-by-play and endless finger-pointing. When children keep whining, parents just want them to stop.
The league is not yet ruling out a 162-game season, but the parties will need to act quickly to achieve such an outcome. Get an agreement, either making changes or none, on the international amateur system and direct draft-pick compensation — the condition the league has set for hammering out the rest of the deal. Resolve the final thresholds, pre-arbitration bonus pool amounts and minimum salaries. Then figure out spring training, the revised schedule, free agency, salary arbitration … and, uh, play ball!
Some on the players’ side believe the union should have accepted one of the league’s three offers on the international draft Wednesday and finished the deal. The second-guessing only will grow louder if games are indeed lost and players lose a combined $20.5 million per day in salaries, as well as service time. Money and service will become more difficult to recover the longer the season is delayed, and the remaining players eligible for free agency and arbitration also could be hurt in the likely event the owners seek to exact compensation for lost revenues.
The union might argue that players always incur such risks when they fight for the rights of those who will follow them. It also might argue that the owners, too, are playing a dangerous game. Most teams will owe rebates to their local television partners after roughly a month of missed games. The damage to the sport from an extended lockout will be significant, if not irreparable. With everything going on nationally and in Ukraine, fans are growing especially impatient, and increasingly annoyed.
Even in the narrower perspective of the sport’s labor history, the length and intensity of this dispute is difficult to accept. The players struck in 1972 when the owners threatened their pensions, in 1981 when the owners demanded compensation for free agents who signed with other clubs, in 1994 when the owners wanted a salary cap. If a battle over luxury-tax thresholds was a poor justification for missing games, the international draft/direct draft-pick question would seem even less of a reason.
The problem, for union head Tony Clark and chief negotiator Bruce Meyer, is political. Just as commissioner Rob Manfred must strike a delicate balance between large- and small-market owners, the union must represent the interests of both domestic and foreign players. Latinos made up nearly 25 percent of Opening Day rosters last season, and the percentage of union members on 40-man rosters is thought to be even greater.
The previous international system included a hard cap for each team’s bonuses, but most Latino players prefer that way of signing players to a draft that would eliminate any market system and choice of teams for international amateurs. The league says a draft would result in more money for those players and help clean up corruption in the market. But the union’s resistance to an international draft/direct draft-pick compensation tradeoff dates to the last labor negotiations, in 2016.
Still, Clark and Meyer were not completely without choices. The union could have agreed to the league’s offer to eliminate direct draft-pick compensation, but with the understanding the players would agree to the international draft by Nov. 15 or allow the league to reopen the deal after 2024. If the players had accepted, they would have effectively called the league’s presumed bluff, daring the owners to lock them out over an international draft at a time when business again should be booming. But the union did not want to grant the owners the unilateral right to opt-out and potentially shorten a five-year deal to three years.
Another option the union could have pursued was allowing direct draft-pick compensation to continue until an agreement on an international draft could be reached. But the qualifying-offer system, while generally affecting only top free agents, costs the players between $50 million and $100 million annually, according to industry sources. The union does not want to yield on the issue any longer.
Every explanation by the union carries a certain logic, except when viewed in the bigger picture. The qualifying offer being tied to the international draft is the reason the union might miss at least two weeks of games? The dividing line that might leave players in a far worse position overall?
Yes, the owners are up to their usual tricks, trying to divide players. No, the players should not accept a deal they believe is unfair. But it’s the job of Clark and Meyer to weigh potential gain against potential pain, to persuade the players of the course that is in their best overall interest. If the international draft is such a problem, if the qualifying offer must be eliminated, find a workaround. And fast.Comment -
No time to read that now nasher, I'll come back later in the day.Comment -
To think, we could of had exhibition games in Arizona by nowComment -
Baseball is back Bitches!!!Comment -
Today’s collective bargaining agreement officially introduced the designated hitter to the National League, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. That’s certainly not a surprise, as the universal DH had been one of the earlier principles for MLB and the Players Association to settle.
The union has sought a universal DH for quite some time, with more possibility for aging or defensively-limited players to have regular roles. AL teams have increasingly used the position as a quasi-rest day for regular players rather than committing to a true full-time DH, but six players (Nelson Cruz, Shohei Ohtani, J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Franmil Reyes and Yordan Álvarez) tallied at least 400 plate appearances in the role last season.
Cruz, in particular, could be the most immediate beneficiary of the universal DH’s implementation. He’s a free agent but is unlikely to see much, if any, time in the field next year. The universal DH opens up the opportunity for NL teams that may have otherwise been wary to bid on Cruz. Other bat-first free agents like Eddie Rosario and Jorge Soler could also see their respective leaguewide demand propped up a bit.
The league, meanwhile, embraced the universal DH as a means of aiding offense. The sport’s ever-increasing strikeout rate has drawn plenty of consternation. The leaguewide strikeout percentage ticked upwards every year between 2005 and 2020, setting an all-time record each season. Last year finally marked a stop to the record-breaking streak, as the strikeout rate marginally slipped from 23.4% to 23.2%. That’s perhaps a bit encouraging, but last year’s number still checked in almost seven percentage points above 2005’s 16.4% mark.
Pitchers aren’t the only culprit for the decrease in balls in play, but they’ve had real issues making contact. Last year, pitcher-hitters fanned at a 44.2% clip. Overall, they hit .110/.150/.142 across 4,830 plate appearances. That’s ghastly production, even by the historically low standards at the position. Their five highest all-time strikeout rates have come in the last five years of pitcher hitting. Four of the five lowest pitcher-hitters’ wRC+ (which compares their overall offensive output to that season’s league average marks) have come since 2017. However one wants to explain that trend — improved leaguewide velocities, specialization that leads to less practice for pitcher hitting, etc. — pitchers were putting up less of a fight at the plate than ever before.
The development figures to receive varying reception from fans of Senior Circuit teams (although many likely considered it an inevitability some time ago). Aside from its implementation as a pandemic protocol in the shortened 2020 season, the NL has never had the position. Most MLBTR readers, however, seem to favor its introduction. In a December poll, 62% of respondents expressed support for an NL DH; 26% were against the possibility, while 12% were generally apathetic.
The universal DH is the only official on-field rules change for 2022, but two recent pandemic protocols did not survive the CBA. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports (on Twitter) that the nine-inning doubleheader returns, as do standard rules for extra innings. The “ghost runner” provision has been scrapped.
The seven-inning doubleheaders and the extra-innings runner proved divisive provisions among baseball fans in their two years in place. They’d been implemented as part of the COVID-19 protocols, with both provisions designed to lessen player workloads during seasons that could be massively impacted by virus-related postponements. Those concerns aren’t expected to be as prominent in 2022, and it seems neither party was motivated enough to agree to implement them permanently. The league may look to reinstitute those rules at some point down the line, but they won’t be in effect for the upcoming season at the very least.
As part of the CBA, a rules committee will be created in 2023, Feinsand tweets. That committee — a group of four active players, six league appointees and an MLB umpire — will have the authority to implement an on-rules change within 45 days of recommending it to the MLBPA. Previously, the league had to wait one year between asking the union’s approval on a rules change and having the right to implement it in the event the MLBPA refused a bilateral agreement.
MLB technically no longer has sole authority to implement those changes, though its appointees will outnumber the player reps on the rules committee. That probably gives the league de facto control over rules, and it’s expected the league will try to implement three in particular — the implementation of a pitch clock, limits on defensive shifting, and larger bases — for the 2023 campaign. Feinsand suggests the automatic strike zone could also be a topic of discussion at that point, although that’ll become clearer next offseason.Comment -
Yeah, me too.
I'm glass half full guy and I was giving up hope.
Now instead of reading about mind numbing business minutia I can concentrate on real baseball matters.
Such as who is Freddie Freeman going to sign with?Comment -
We should see a lot of action on the hot stove this next week
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I love the Athletic. Give me your recommended writers on there, Nasher.Comment -
Thank God they're getting rid of the ghost runner in extra innings and bringing back 9 inning double headers. I didn't like those things as a gambler. Maybe some people liked the shortened double headers but I didn't really like it when I was betting on baseball. So much so that I tended to avoid betting on double header games because they were only 7 innings.Comment -
MLB and the Players Association agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement this afternoon, in time to preserve a 162-game regular season. The work stoppage dragged on long enough to deal a pretty significant blow to Spring Training, though, which will be shorter in 2022 than it is in a typical year.
With only four weeks until Opening Day, there’s some concern about the early-season workload players will have to assume. One possible solution would be to expand the active rosters a bit early in the season, and it seems that’s on the table. Joel Sherman of the New York Post noted this afternoon that while expanding rosters wasn’t part of the CBA, the parties could circle back to that possibility. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets that some in the industry expect an enlarged active roster early in the regular season.
That move wouldn’t be without precedent. Rosters were bumped to 28 players for the entirety of the shortened 2020 season. That followed a three-week exhibition “Summer Camp” and also came with greater concerns about teams losing players to COVID-19. Still, it suggests the league and union aren’t opposed to adding a little more depth to teams’ rosters if they’re concerned about the shortened ramp-up.
Complicating matters further is the return on the limit of the number of pitchers teams may carry. Over the 2019-20 offseason, MLB passed a rule that capped teams to 13 pitchers at any given time. Under pandemic protocols, that rule was suspended in both 2020 and 2021. However, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported last May that MLB was planning to reinstitute the 13-pitcher limit this season. That seems to have come to fruition, as Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak acknowledged it was in place when speaking with reporters this evening (via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).
Were active rosters to expand for the season’s first few weeks, that limit on pitchers would probably be relaxed. Whenever teams are faced with a permanent cap of 13 hurlers, though, there figure to be greater challenges for managers in handling their staffs. The CBA also limits teams to optioning players to the minor leagues more than five times in a season, so management won’t be as simple as shuttling fresh arms on and off the roster daily. That could compel teams to lean more heavily on their starting pitchers than they have in recent years (particularly with the introduction of the universal DH removing the need to pinch-hit for pitchers depending on the game situation).Comment -
Odalis Perez died yesterday falling off a ladder.
SadComment -
No trades or free agent signings that I have seen yet...Comment
