Padres Considered the Favorites to Land James Shields

[stevenash]

Never can figure out why historically bad franchises overpay for marginal players instead of developing their own. I like Houston's approach of signing players early in their career long term for much less money.

I like what Houston is doing too, Shields is hardly elite, but a marignal pitcher is harsh too.

[stevenash]

Ignoring his rookie year, look at the GS column, and the innings pitched column.
Shileds has made every start, since 2007.
That's huge to an entire staff, it saves bullpen arms.
That's valuable.

Nobody is calling him elite, he doesn't walk many, his strike out rate is very nice.
WH/IP and ERA is OK, not Hall of Fame, but nobody is calling him that.
He's very valuable to a staff as middle of the rotation starter.
Offer him 2 years mid to upper 20 million for the two years, third year option.

Year	Tm	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	BB9	SO9	SO/W
2006	TBD	6	8	4.84	21	21	1	0	124.2	141	69	67	18	38	104	1.436	2.7	7.5	2.74
2007	TBD	12	8	3.85	31	31	1	0	215	202	98	92	28	36	184	1.107	1.5	7.7	5.11
2008	TBR	14	8	3.56	33	33	3	2	215	208	94	85	24	40	160	1.153	1.7	6.7	4
2009	TBR	11	12	4.14	33	33	0	0	219.2	239	113	101	29	52	167	1.325	2.1	6.8	3.21
2010	TBR	13	15	5.18	34	33	0	0	203.1	246	128	117	34	51	187	1.461	2.3	8.3	3.67
2011 ★	TBR	16	12	2.82	33	33	11	4	249.1	195	83	78	26	65	225	1.043	2.3	8.1	3.46
2012	TBR	15	10	3.52	33	33	3	2	227.2	208	103	89	25	58	223	1.168	2.3	8.8	3.84
2013	KCR	13	9	3.15	34	34	2	0	228.2	215	82	80	20	68	196	1.238	2.7	7.7	2.88
2014	KCR	14	8	3.21	34	34	1	1	227	224	95	81	23	44	180	1.181	1.7	7.1	4.09
9 Yrs		114	90	3.72	286	285	22	9	1910.1	1878	865	790	227	452	1626	1.22	2.1	7.7	3.6

[daneblazer]

He eats up innings and is rarely on the DL. Guys like that are gold because you don't have to burn up your bullpen or call up some schlub from the minors to start 5-6 games

[Cross]

Big game James likes California apparently.

[stevenash]

^
Yeah, he didn't hate KC, but didn't like the midwest that much either.
Hey, he could have pitched better in the postseason, however, he did what he was paid to do in KC, get them to the World Series, he made that team relevant again.

[BarkingToad]

I like what Houston is doing too, Shields is hardly elite, but a marignal pitcher is harsh too.

That's true, while he's a bit better than marginal, he's not worth the high price tag. Giving one player who plays every 5 days what probably averages out to $1.5 million per win is too much. Money could be better spent if they were smart.

[stevenash]

Update:

Looks like it's going to happen tommorow.


Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports that "it would be a big upset" if James Shields doesn't sign with the Padres.
Passan adds that "multiple general managers who have inquired on Shields believe he ends up in San Diego." The Cubs have been seen as a potential dark horse to swoop in and land the righty, but Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com says they're "still a long shot." Shields is expected to make a decision on Sunday or Monday, and all signs are pointing to him picking the Padres. Those in the industry have speculated to Passan that Shields is likely to get a four-year deal in the $72-75 million range. Feb 8 - 12:38 PM

[Big Bear]

Big game James likes California apparently.

him and Dan Haren both.

Both are major stoner/ surfer types

[stevenash]

2015 pecota projection

only team that could possibly test them in the West is the Rockies and only if Tulo and Cargo stay healthy.

Nobody likes Bears Rockies

West		Updated	W	L	RS	RA	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	FRAA
0	Los Angeles Dodgers	Hitters: Jan 11 Pitchers: Jan 28	97	65	708	564	.253	.315	.400	.269	5.2
1	San Francisco Giants	Hitters: Jan 21 Pitchers: Jan 26	84	78	639	613	.254	.310	.372	.259	-9.0
0	San Diego Padres	Hitters: Jan 21 Pitchers: Jan 20	83	79	624	606	.241	.301	.385	.262	1.1
2	Arizona D-backs	Hitters: Feb 3 Pitchers: Jan 20	74	88	637	704	.248	.297	.400	.254	10.8
2	Colorado Rockies	Hitters: Jan 21 Pitchers: Feb 3	72	90	751	855	.269	.319	.434	.258	-1.5

[Mr KLC]

The Padres’ offer to Shields four years and between $72-80MM, tweets FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi.

[d2bets]

Cali teams are at a pretty big disadvantage given California's high income tax rate on high earners.

[lakerboy]

Big game failure

[Terrapin Station]

A front four of Tyson Ross with Ian Kennedy, Andrew Cashner, and Shields makes SD's starting four a top five rotation.

Agree. I'm expecting, and looking forward, to a lot from the Padres this season.

[LT Profits]

Done Deal pending physical.

According to Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish, the Padres have signed James Shields to a four-year deal.

The writing has been on the wall for several days, and now the contract is only pending a physical. Cotillo says the total guaranteed value of the four-year agreement will be in the $72-78 million range, and there's also an option for 2019. It's another big offseason splash for the Padres, who have been incredibly active under new general manager A.J. Preller. Shields, 33, should have a great amount of fantasy value in pitcher-friendly San Diego.

[stevenash]

vs. RHP

1. Next to players name denotes starter at that position

vs. RHP

C	1. Derek Norris	0.244
1B	1. Yonder Alonso	0.245
2B	1. Jedd Gyorko	0.228
SS	1. Alexi Amarista	0.252
3B	1. Will Middlebrooks	0.198
LF	1. Justin Upton	0.266
CF	1. Wil Myers	0.235
RF	1. Matt Kemp	0.295

[daneblazer]

Something overlooked is that they may have one of the worst defenses in the league

[Big Bear]

Nobody likes Bears Rockies

West		Updated	W	L	RS	RA	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	FRAA
0	Los Angeles Dodgers	Hitters: Jan 11 Pitchers: Jan 28	97	65	708	564	.253	.315	.400	.269	5.2
1	San Francisco Giants	Hitters: Jan 21 Pitchers: Jan 26	84	78	639	613	.254	.310	.372	.259	-9.0
0	San Diego Padres	Hitters: Jan 21 Pitchers: Jan 20	83	79	624	606	.241	.301	.385	.262	1.1
2	Arizona D-backs	Hitters: Feb 3 Pitchers: Jan 20	74	88	637	704	.248	.297	.400	.254	10.8
2	Colorado Rockies	Hitters: Jan 21 Pitchers: Feb 3	72	90	751	855	.269	.319	.434	.258	-1.5

man i wish they had a prop for Giants to finish in 3rd place or worse.

There is no possible way the Giants will win 84 games with that anemic offense.

[Big Bear]

Something overlooked is that they may have one of the worst defenses in the league

that and the Padres have the worst shortstop / second base combo in the league by a country mile. Both offensively and defensively.

[stevenash]

There is no possible way the Giants will win 84 games with that anemic offense.

Posey is the best hitting catcher in the league.
Belt has power to burn.
Panik proved he can hit in his rookie year.
Pence is an amazing stickman.
McGhee hits for average, no power to speak of.

C 1. Buster Posey 2. Andrew Susac 3. Hector Sanchez 1B 1. Brandon Belt 2. Travis Ishikawa 3. Adam Duvall 2B 1. Joe Panik SS 1. Brandon Crawford 2. Matt Duffy 3. Ehire Adrianza 3B 1. Casey McGehee 2. Joaquin Arias LF 1. Norichika Aoki 2. Travis Ishikawa 3. John Bowker CF 1. Angel Pagan 2. Gregor Blanco 3. Gary Brown RF 1. Hunter Pence 2. Juan Perez

[Big Bear]

Belt and Posey are the only 2 good hitters IMO.

Pagan is decent too if he can stay on the field and yeah I will give you Pence is scrappy.

The rest of the team is a bunch of misfits who would likely not find another MLB team that they could start on. The Giants are content with last seasons success and are " Not really making an effort to go for it" this season IMO.

[daneblazer]

Belt is one of the most over rated players in the league. He has a hole in his swing and can't stay healthy. I don't get the gushing love for him every year

[stevenash]

^
Don't love Belt,good glove for 1B, tons of hit or miss power is what I am saying.

[Cross]

California dreaming, good place to be.

[stevenash]

that and the Padres have the worst shortstop / second base combo in the league by a country mile. Both offensively and defensively.

Gyorko has plenty of upside, has 20 home run potential, needs patience.
I like the kid.

Amarista, Pads need to upgrade at SS

[daneblazer]

California dreaming, good place to be.

Yea really...how good is the baseball in California now? Every team has a shot

[stevenash]

Yea really...how good is the baseball in California now? Every team has a shot

Nasher going to be up to 1:30 am four nights a week now with MLBtv on.

[mlb]

How bad is Arizona going to be wow.

[Big Bear]

How bad is Arizona going to be wow.

what makes u say that?

might not be a bad rotation

1. Patrick Corbin
2. Archie Bradley
3. Daniel Hudson
4. Jermey Hellickson
5. Trevor Cahill

[d2bets]

what makes u say that?

might not be a bad rotation

1. Patrick Corbin
2. Archie Bradley
3. Daniel Hudson
4. Jermey Hellickson
5. Trevor Cahill

That looks like probably the worst rotation in the NL.

[Big Bear]

That looks like probably the worst rotation in the NL.

Patrick Corbin is a beast though. Atleast admit that.

People forget he on the team bc he didn't play last year but the season before he started out like 16-3 if i remember correctly

[MexicanStallion]

At least that didn't drag out any longer. A few relievers available to sign and the major free agents will be signed.

[d2bets]

Patrick Corbin is a beast though. Atleast admit that.

People forget he on the team bc he didn't play last year but the season before he started out like 16-3 if i remember correctly

He's not a beast and not an ace. He's 20-16. Had a good run to start 2013, but then fell apart. He might be a decent #3. Their rotation is not impressive.

[stevenash]

^
At best, that rotation is barely ordinary.

[Big Bear]

Kemp and Myers will both hit under .250 with less than 20 HR's.

That ball park is a hitters worst nightmare

[stevenash]

Kemp and Myers will both hit under .250 with less than 20 HR's.

That ball park is a hitters worst nightmare

Fenway is more of a nightmare.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor