Around the League
Oscar Taveras, OF, Stl - The Cardinals sent super-prospect Oscar Taveras down to the minor leagues today. This development shouldn't really surprise anyone. Taveras is knocking the rust off from a major ankle injury, and St. Louis, at least for the moment, is fairly crowded in the outfield . Taveras should find his way to the majors at the first sign of injury trouble or if the Peter Bourjos/Jon Jay experiment in centerfield does not pan out. There really isn't much about this kid not to like. He has limited his strike outs to the 10-11% range in his time at Double and Triple-A which is fantastic. He could use some work on his plate patience, but he has Vlad Guerrero knack for not walking but never really striking out. It's a pretty accurate and fantastic comparison. Taveras flashes plus power, and really the only question left is when will he get the call? The Cards don't need to rush him, which means re-draft owners need to be hesitant about pulling the trigger on draft day. Keeper and dynasty formats should be all over this kid.
Yonder Alonso, 1B, SD- The question that fantasy owners and Padres' fans have to ask themselves, will Yonder Alonso ever hit for enough power to be worth a roster spot? The Padres first baseman had done a solid job of controlling the strike zone during his first couple of seasons with the team. In 2013, Alonso managed a terrific 12.5% K Rate while accumulating a fair 8.5% BB Rate. Alonso doesn't hurt a team with his free swinging ways. He also doesn't help the team with any power from the corner. His ISO of .087 is ridiculously poor, and sadly, it isn't so far off his .120 ISO from 2012 to be seen as outside a reasonable range. Alonso's Batted Ball rates show average trends across the board with the exception of a 6% HR/FB rate. This will be Alonso's age 27 season, and I, frankly, just don't see enough in his power profile to believe that he will ever be even a reasonable power hitter. He won't hurt your average, but he won't help anywhere else so it makes sense to leave him on the wire for players that offer more than just empty average.
Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC- There are few things more fun than when a young player that you are heavily invested in finally starts to perform. Eric Hosmer was that young player for me last fantasy season. After a 2011 where he flashed unbelievable upside, Hosmer fell off a table in 2012 as his power disappeared. In 2013, he bounced back to form, and now the question is: will he finally take the next step? As with most of my recommendations, especially with younger players, I want to preach patience. Hosmer had a very nice second half, but there are still red flags on the large sample size that was his 2013 season. Hosmer's average bounced back to a fantastic .302, but his BABIP was a high .335. There is reason to believe the BABIP will regress and with it his average will fall. While I don't see it as being a fantastically large drop-off, I don't think you can count on Hosmer for .300 in 2014. The bigger issue is that Hosmer still isn't putting the ball in the air enough to be an elite fantasy power contributor. A ground ball rate of 50+% each of the last two years and a Fly Ball rate of less than 25% in 2013 does not promote a massive power outbreak. Even with solid HR/FB rates of 11-13% in each of his Major League seasons, Hosmer just isn't putting the ball in the air enough for those rates to translate into meaningful home run totals. Unless and until we see less of the ball on the ground, Hosmer will remain a solid, if unspectacular fantasy option.
Michael Pineda, SP, NYY- The Yankees have been using words like encouraged and hopeful when discussing the re-emergence of once promising starter Michael Pineda. Fantasy owners will remember Pineda from his ridiculous coming out party with the Mariners in the first half of 2011 where it appeared as if he would form a long term tandem with Felix Hernandez a top the M's rotation. We all know how the rest of the story goes: a so-so second half, a trade to the Yankees for former top prospect Jesus Montero (who may be slowly eating his way out of baseball, but I digress) and a torn labrum, which cost him all of 2012 and kept him in a rehab posture in 2013. Yesterday, Pineda struck out 5 in 2.2 innings and is starting to seem like the pitcher of old. Fantasy owners need to be on the look-out here. Pineda wasn't just good when he was healthy, he was elite. His 24.9% K Rate in 2011 was supported by all of his minor league data. His 7.9% BB Rate was actually a little high when looking at his prior years totals, but even if that's who he is, it isn't bad enough to truly cause concern. During a brief stint at Triple-A last season before the team shut him down, Pineda was at 27.1% K Rate and 6.3% BB Rate. Listen, we all know you can't predict or even understand shoulder injuries. They have cost us some of the best and brightest the game has had to offer and the risk with Pineda's health is palpable, but the upside here is massive. When he is right, he is dialing a fastball in the mid-90's and one of the most filthy sliders in the business. This is top-30 potential stuff going anywhere from Round 25 to undrafted in standard ten-twelve team mixed leagues right now. There is absolutely no reason he shouldn't be on your roster at that cost.
Martin Perez, SP, Tex- The Texas Rangers' pitching staff has been a walking M.A.S.H. unit this off-season. As the team tries to piece together the staff behind Yu Darvish, left hander Martin Perez is one of the few sure fire options for the team. Perez did an admirable job in is 20 starts in 2013, but fantasy owners shouldn't reach for Perez in 2014. The lefties biggest issue for fantasy purposes is he just hasn't been a strikeout pitcher in almost 2 years. His 15.9% K Rate is supported by his performance since being called to Triple-A in 2011. He managed a 3.62 ERA in 2013 by keeping the ball on the ground (48+% in each of the last two seasons), but with a FIP of 4.23 and a xFIP of 4.04 there is at least some regression that might be expected in 2014. I like Perez as a rotational guy and a match-up play, but I don't think you can consistently roster him unless his strikeout number start to creep back up towards the levels of his performance in the lower minors.
Josh Johnson, SP, SD- Last season was an interesting, and sadly, familiar, season for Josh Johnson. Johnson managed to flash his plus strike out potential with a 21.6% K Rate, which we had come to associate with the big right hander. Sadly, injury once again shortened Johnson's season to only 81 innings pitched, and a ridiculously high 18.5% HR/FB rate murdered his ERA. Obviously, a larger sample may have provided room for that rate to regress and his ERA to get closer in line with is FIP of 4.62 and xFIP of 3.58. More than anything, Johnson will benefit from moving from hitter friendly Toronto to pitcher friendly San Diego in 2014. Lots of those home runs will fall short in Southern California, and if Johnson can manage to stay healthy and keep his K Rate in the low 20's, I look for him to be a very valuable member of fantasy rotations. He is routinely going later than he should given his strike out potential, new home ball park and pedigree. There is risk here with his health, but for where he is going, I love his value.
Archie Bradley, SP, ARI- Few names are hotter this spring than Archie Bradley. The top pitching prospect for the D'Backs has been all over everyone's radar for sleeper potential especially given the back issues suffered by recently signed Bronson Arroyo. I love Bradley's potential as a big strike out arm. He absolutely dominated Double-A batters with a 23.5% K Rate, but I think we all need to take a step back and be calm. First, Arizona seems committed, rightly so, to the idea that Bradley needs more seasoning. The fact that he was walking 11.7% of Double-A batters supports the fact that he probably shouldn't be grinding it out against major league lineups just quite yet. His stuff is undeniable, but he has exactly 21 starts above A Ball. If the D'Backs decide to pull a Jose Fernandez with Bradley and have him break camp, he should be owned in all leagues. If not, I would suspect we won't see him before June barring major injury. It will allow Arizona to control his arbitration clock more to their liking and provide the player with some much need playing time against Triple-A hitters. Re-draft owners shouldn't be taking him until you have five solid arms in your stable. Keeper and dynasty formats should go nuts because the talent is absolutely top tier.
Howie Kendrick, 2B, LAA- If you like singles, then man you must love you some Howie Kendrick. Kendrick has consistently been a solid if unspectacular option at second base, and there is little reason to doubt he will be similar this season. Kendrick doesn't provide power, and in 2013, he didn't provide the double digit steals he had offered to owners for the previous four seasons. What he does provide is BABIP induced Batting Average. His BABIP is consistently in the .330-.340 range which keeps his average in the close to but rarely eclipsing .300. It's all he really offers though. He doesn't really score or drive in runs traditionally, he doesn't hit for power and we just discussed his lack of speed as he has aged. If you are looking for a late round middle infielder who won't kill you, but isn't going to really help you in anything but one category, ladies and gentlemen, I present to you Howie Kendrick.
Oscar Taveras, OF, Stl - The Cardinals sent super-prospect Oscar Taveras down to the minor leagues today. This development shouldn't really surprise anyone. Taveras is knocking the rust off from a major ankle injury, and St. Louis, at least for the moment, is fairly crowded in the outfield . Taveras should find his way to the majors at the first sign of injury trouble or if the Peter Bourjos/Jon Jay experiment in centerfield does not pan out. There really isn't much about this kid not to like. He has limited his strike outs to the 10-11% range in his time at Double and Triple-A which is fantastic. He could use some work on his plate patience, but he has Vlad Guerrero knack for not walking but never really striking out. It's a pretty accurate and fantastic comparison. Taveras flashes plus power, and really the only question left is when will he get the call? The Cards don't need to rush him, which means re-draft owners need to be hesitant about pulling the trigger on draft day. Keeper and dynasty formats should be all over this kid.Yonder Alonso, 1B, SD- The question that fantasy owners and Padres' fans have to ask themselves, will Yonder Alonso ever hit for enough power to be worth a roster spot? The Padres first baseman had done a solid job of controlling the strike zone during his first couple of seasons with the team. In 2013, Alonso managed a terrific 12.5% K Rate while accumulating a fair 8.5% BB Rate. Alonso doesn't hurt a team with his free swinging ways. He also doesn't help the team with any power from the corner. His ISO of .087 is ridiculously poor, and sadly, it isn't so far off his .120 ISO from 2012 to be seen as outside a reasonable range. Alonso's Batted Ball rates show average trends across the board with the exception of a 6% HR/FB rate. This will be Alonso's age 27 season, and I, frankly, just don't see enough in his power profile to believe that he will ever be even a reasonable power hitter. He won't hurt your average, but he won't help anywhere else so it makes sense to leave him on the wire for players that offer more than just empty average.
Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC- There are few things more fun than when a young player that you are heavily invested in finally starts to perform. Eric Hosmer was that young player for me last fantasy season. After a 2011 where he flashed unbelievable upside, Hosmer fell off a table in 2012 as his power disappeared. In 2013, he bounced back to form, and now the question is: will he finally take the next step? As with most of my recommendations, especially with younger players, I want to preach patience. Hosmer had a very nice second half, but there are still red flags on the large sample size that was his 2013 season. Hosmer's average bounced back to a fantastic .302, but his BABIP was a high .335. There is reason to believe the BABIP will regress and with it his average will fall. While I don't see it as being a fantastically large drop-off, I don't think you can count on Hosmer for .300 in 2014. The bigger issue is that Hosmer still isn't putting the ball in the air enough to be an elite fantasy power contributor. A ground ball rate of 50+% each of the last two years and a Fly Ball rate of less than 25% in 2013 does not promote a massive power outbreak. Even with solid HR/FB rates of 11-13% in each of his Major League seasons, Hosmer just isn't putting the ball in the air enough for those rates to translate into meaningful home run totals. Unless and until we see less of the ball on the ground, Hosmer will remain a solid, if unspectacular fantasy option.
Michael Pineda, SP, NYY- The Yankees have been using words like encouraged and hopeful when discussing the re-emergence of once promising starter Michael Pineda. Fantasy owners will remember Pineda from his ridiculous coming out party with the Mariners in the first half of 2011 where it appeared as if he would form a long term tandem with Felix Hernandez a top the M's rotation. We all know how the rest of the story goes: a so-so second half, a trade to the Yankees for former top prospect Jesus Montero (who may be slowly eating his way out of baseball, but I digress) and a torn labrum, which cost him all of 2012 and kept him in a rehab posture in 2013. Yesterday, Pineda struck out 5 in 2.2 innings and is starting to seem like the pitcher of old. Fantasy owners need to be on the look-out here. Pineda wasn't just good when he was healthy, he was elite. His 24.9% K Rate in 2011 was supported by all of his minor league data. His 7.9% BB Rate was actually a little high when looking at his prior years totals, but even if that's who he is, it isn't bad enough to truly cause concern. During a brief stint at Triple-A last season before the team shut him down, Pineda was at 27.1% K Rate and 6.3% BB Rate. Listen, we all know you can't predict or even understand shoulder injuries. They have cost us some of the best and brightest the game has had to offer and the risk with Pineda's health is palpable, but the upside here is massive. When he is right, he is dialing a fastball in the mid-90's and one of the most filthy sliders in the business. This is top-30 potential stuff going anywhere from Round 25 to undrafted in standard ten-twelve team mixed leagues right now. There is absolutely no reason he shouldn't be on your roster at that cost.Martin Perez, SP, Tex- The Texas Rangers' pitching staff has been a walking M.A.S.H. unit this off-season. As the team tries to piece together the staff behind Yu Darvish, left hander Martin Perez is one of the few sure fire options for the team. Perez did an admirable job in is 20 starts in 2013, but fantasy owners shouldn't reach for Perez in 2014. The lefties biggest issue for fantasy purposes is he just hasn't been a strikeout pitcher in almost 2 years. His 15.9% K Rate is supported by his performance since being called to Triple-A in 2011. He managed a 3.62 ERA in 2013 by keeping the ball on the ground (48+% in each of the last two seasons), but with a FIP of 4.23 and a xFIP of 4.04 there is at least some regression that might be expected in 2014. I like Perez as a rotational guy and a match-up play, but I don't think you can consistently roster him unless his strikeout number start to creep back up towards the levels of his performance in the lower minors.
Josh Johnson, SP, SD- Last season was an interesting, and sadly, familiar, season for Josh Johnson. Johnson managed to flash his plus strike out potential with a 21.6% K Rate, which we had come to associate with the big right hander. Sadly, injury once again shortened Johnson's season to only 81 innings pitched, and a ridiculously high 18.5% HR/FB rate murdered his ERA. Obviously, a larger sample may have provided room for that rate to regress and his ERA to get closer in line with is FIP of 4.62 and xFIP of 3.58. More than anything, Johnson will benefit from moving from hitter friendly Toronto to pitcher friendly San Diego in 2014. Lots of those home runs will fall short in Southern California, and if Johnson can manage to stay healthy and keep his K Rate in the low 20's, I look for him to be a very valuable member of fantasy rotations. He is routinely going later than he should given his strike out potential, new home ball park and pedigree. There is risk here with his health, but for where he is going, I love his value. Archie Bradley, SP, ARI- Few names are hotter this spring than Archie Bradley. The top pitching prospect for the D'Backs has been all over everyone's radar for sleeper potential especially given the back issues suffered by recently signed Bronson Arroyo. I love Bradley's potential as a big strike out arm. He absolutely dominated Double-A batters with a 23.5% K Rate, but I think we all need to take a step back and be calm. First, Arizona seems committed, rightly so, to the idea that Bradley needs more seasoning. The fact that he was walking 11.7% of Double-A batters supports the fact that he probably shouldn't be grinding it out against major league lineups just quite yet. His stuff is undeniable, but he has exactly 21 starts above A Ball. If the D'Backs decide to pull a Jose Fernandez with Bradley and have him break camp, he should be owned in all leagues. If not, I would suspect we won't see him before June barring major injury. It will allow Arizona to control his arbitration clock more to their liking and provide the player with some much need playing time against Triple-A hitters. Re-draft owners shouldn't be taking him until you have five solid arms in your stable. Keeper and dynasty formats should go nuts because the talent is absolutely top tier.Howie Kendrick, 2B, LAA- If you like singles, then man you must love you some Howie Kendrick. Kendrick has consistently been a solid if unspectacular option at second base, and there is little reason to doubt he will be similar this season. Kendrick doesn't provide power, and in 2013, he didn't provide the double digit steals he had offered to owners for the previous four seasons. What he does provide is BABIP induced Batting Average. His BABIP is consistently in the .330-.340 range which keeps his average in the close to but rarely eclipsing .300. It's all he really offers though. He doesn't really score or drive in runs traditionally, he doesn't hit for power and we just discussed his lack of speed as he has aged. If you are looking for a late round middle infielder who won't kill you, but isn't going to really help you in anything but one category, ladies and gentlemen, I present to you Howie Kendrick.
What a great trip it was!!!
