Catchers
Value Plays
Alex Avila (DET) - Avila is underpriced when going against RHP. Despite a disappointing all around year in 2012, he has managed to post a .367 wOBA and .196 ISO against RHP since the beginning of 2011. Today he faces Jordan Lyles whose 5.22 FIP and 1.56 HR/9 against LHB are the worst splits against LHB of any pitcher in action today.
Jason Castro (HOU) - Castro hitting in the 3-hole against Rick Porcello should net you some positive points. Porcello is unable to strikeout many LHB (12.3 K%) and allows a .364 wOBA to them. Meanwhile, Castro has a .353 wOBA against RHP.
Victor Martinez (DET) - Martinez gets the same favorable matchup as Avila. At this point, I'm honestly not sure if Martinez's skills against RHP are better than Avila's but if you think they are go with Martinez as he hits in a better spot in the lineup.
Carlos Ruiz (PHI) - Since 2011 Ruiz has hit over .300 in 661 PA's against RHP. That works very well today against RHP Alex Sanabia who has reverse splits and is actually worse against RHB (.351 wOBA allowed).
First Base
Top Play
Prince Fielder (DET) - I think Fielder is the clear cut top hitter of the day. Lyles, as I mentioned above, struggles against LHB allowing 1.56 HR/9 against them and a .363 wOBA as well. Fielder has always crushed RHP, and in particular, since 2011, Fielder has a .425 wOBA, 1.024 OPS, 1.27 EYE, .279 ISO and only struck out 12.4% of the time - all elite numbers.
Other top plays include Lance Berkman (TEX), David Ortiz (BOS), Mike Napoli (BOS) and Chris Davis (BAL).
Value Plays
Paul Konerko (CHW) - The same handedness matchup really doesn't bother Konerko as he has a .375 wOBA against RHP the last several years. He faces Justin Grimm today. We don't have much of a sample size on Grimm, but he has been hurt by giving up a ton of line drives (27.5 LD% against RHB). ZIPS has Grimm for a ROS ERA well over 5, and the hitting environment (in Texas with the wind blowing out) is very favorable for Konerko.
Carlos Pena (HOU) - Due to a likely low price on a lot of sites, Pena is a decent value play. Porcello's .364 wOBA against LHB is the worst wOBA pitcher split on the day, and his low K rate against LHB limits Pena's biggest weakness - his propensity to strikeout. Still, I'll likely pay up for a better 1B - either Konerko, Fielder or one of the other top plays I have listed - but dollar for dollar, Pena (.348 wOBA against RHP since 2011) isn't a bad play if you need the cap room.
Ryan Howard (PHI) - Howard is a good play today as I expect the Phillies to get to Alex Sanabia. Sanabia has been okay against LHB, but some of that is luck related. In 58 IP against LHB Sanabia is giving up just .78 HR/9, but I expect his 6.7 HR/FB% to regress more towards 10%. When that happens Sanabia's high LD (22.9%) and FB (42.9%) rates could lead to big power numbers from LHB. Howard, since 2011, has a .250 ISO against RHP.
Second Base
Top Play
Dustin Pedroia (BOS) - Pedroia is easily the best 2B play in action today. He has an elite 1.42 EYE against LHP since 2011 that has led to a .943 OPS and .408 wOBA. Pedroia will be hitting against Jays' LHP JA Happ who has allowed a .343 wOBA to RHB and 1.18 HR/9.
Value Plays
Dan Uggla (ATL) - Haren's 2012 struggles (.353 wOBA, 1.36 HR/9 allowed to RHB) have continued so far in 2013 (.444 wOBA, 2.45 HR/9 allowed to RHB). With Uggla's power and career reverse splits (.221 ISO against RHP) he's a solid value play today.
Matt Carpenter (STL) - I think Wily Peralta has a pretty uncomfortable outing today against a deep Cardinals' lineup. Carpenter has been hitting sixth and should see plenty of RBI opportunities. In a small sample size Peralta has struggled against LHB (.335 wOBA allowed), and Carpenter thrives off of RHP (.300 BA, .361 wOBA since 2011).
Shortstop
Value Plays
Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) - I was tempted to make Marwin Gonzalez my best value play at SS, but the fact that he hits 9th really prevents that from happening. In 227 career plate appearances against RHP Gonzalez has a solid 85.5 contact rate and decent power for a cheap SS (.144 ISO). Going against Rick Porcello who is just bad against LHB, I think Gonzalez has a decent good at some individual success today at likely a cheap tag on most sites.
Jhonny Peralta (DET) - Peralta is a value play based on three things: (1) he's moderately to low priced on most sites, (2) the Tigers are one of the highest expected scoring teams on the day and (3) there aren't a lot of strong SS plays on the day.
Jimmy Rollins (PHI) - I like higher priced options at other positions today, so I will likely go cheap with Gonzalez or Peralta. However, Rollins is also a strong play leading off against Alex Sanabia who has a career 4.68 xFIP and ZIPS projected rest of season ERA of 5.55.
Third Base
Top Play
Miguel Cabrera (DET) - I'm clearly not going out on a limb here as Cabrera is the best 3B in action today. He has a huge .435 wOBA against RHP since the beginning of 2011 and is facing off against Jordan Lyles who has allowed a .325 wOBA to RHB and 1.1 HR/9.
Best Value Play
Will Middlebrooks (BOS) - Middlebrooks is a really strong value play today. He's hitting in Toronto which enhances right handed power quite a bit. On top of that Middlebrooks, who has a .237 ISO and .056 HR/PA against LHP, is facing JA Happ who has allowed a .343 wOBA and 1.18 HR/9 to RHB.
Other Value Plays
Michael Young (PHI) - Michael Young, hitting at the top of the Philadelphia lineup against Alex Sanabia, should see plenty of opportunities for success. The past few years he has a .299 BA against RHP, and although it comes with low power and patience, it should play well against Sanabia who has allowed a .297 BA to RHB with very low K (14.6%) and BB (4.5%) rates.
Conor Gillaspie (CHW) - It is only 93 plate appearances, but Gillaspie has shown some skills against RHP (.53 EYE, .214 ISO) that have led him to a solid .310/.366/.524 triple slash. Gillaspie should hit 6th today, and in a matchup against just an okay RHP in Texas with the wind blowing out, he's a good play if you are on a stricter pricing site and need some salary cap relief.
Outfield
The three outfielders I like most today are Ryan Braun, Mike Trout and Jose Bautista.
Best Value Play
Jonny Gomes (BOS) - Gomes for his price is absolutely one of the best value plays on the day. He has been hitting second for the Red Sox against LHP and for good reason. His .400 wOBA and .220 ISO in 330 PA's against LHP since 2011 is extremely impressive, and as I mentioned earlier, right handed power is enhanced in Toronto. Look for him and the Boston lineup to have success against JA Happ.
Value Plays
Andy Dirks (DET) - Dirks was awesome against RHP last year (.379 wOBA). While he will have a tough time duplicating that number again this year, Dirks clearly has a platoon edge and should take advantage of it today against Jordan Lyles (.363 wOBA, 1.56 HR/9 allowed to LHB).
Carlos Beltran (STL) - As I stated in Matt Carpenter's blurb, I expect the Cardinals to give Wily Peralta a tough time. Beltran should be heavily involved in the offense as he hits second and boasts the best wOBA against RHP since 2011 of the Cardinals' hitters.
Nick Markakis/Adam Jones (BAL) - Both of these Baltimore outfielders make good plays today against the very hittable Joe Blanton who serves up long balls to hitters on both sides of the plate (1.47 HR/9 to RHB, 1.34 HR/9 to LHB). I prefer Markakis because of the likely lower price, but price aside Jones is the better play.
Large Field Tournament Play
Mark Trumbo (LAA) - Trumbo is a strong GPP play today as he faces Chris Tillman who has yielded 1.47 HR/9 to RHB and allows a ton of fly balls (46.3%). This meshes well with Trumbo's power game (.221 ISO against RHP).
Jon Jay is another good splits play to take advantage of and might not be priced very highly. Josh Hamilton is still underpriced and has an okay matchup, but he's also swinging at everything so still a risk.
Starting Pitcher
Top Play
Kris Medlen (ATL) - In terms of talent, Medlen and Jake Peavy are in their own tier tonight, but with Peavy having a very tough matchup (at Texas), Medlen is the top play. Vegas has Medlen as one of the bigger favorites on the day (second best to Kendrick, but the Detroit line has not been set yet), playing in the game with the lowest total (7.5). I don't love the matchup but the Nationals are currently 20th in MLB with a .307 wOBA against RHP, and considering the other options on the day, Medlen is the best starting pitcher. UPDATE: Harper is day to day with a bruised side. Should he miss today's game (and it's looking like he will) it would only make this an even better start for Medlen. Jayson Werth is also questionable.
Value Plays
Kyle Kendrick (PHI) - Kendrick is facing what is simply a terrible Marlins lineup. Just due to randomness they will put up runs now and then (like yesterday), but they have no impact hitters with Stanton out and not a lot of guys that hit RHP well. Their season wOBA against RHP is dead last in MLB at .262, and their current lineup (due to injuries) is probably worse than it has been. Kendrick is not nearly as good as his ERA so far this season indicates, but he keeps the ball on the ground and has acceptable K/BB ratios, which is more than enough to get through this lineup.
Rick Porcello (DET) - I've yet to see a line on the Detroit game, but I'm assuming Porcello will be a heavy favorite. With not a lot good SP options today, Porcello isn't a bad play. He's uber cheap due to a dreadful start to the season and with a matchup against the Astros, he could walk into a win and a handful of strikeouts (Astros 27.4 K% against RHP is dead last in MLB).
Value Plays
Alex Avila (DET) - Avila is underpriced when going against RHP. Despite a disappointing all around year in 2012, he has managed to post a .367 wOBA and .196 ISO against RHP since the beginning of 2011. Today he faces Jordan Lyles whose 5.22 FIP and 1.56 HR/9 against LHB are the worst splits against LHB of any pitcher in action today.
Jason Castro (HOU) - Castro hitting in the 3-hole against Rick Porcello should net you some positive points. Porcello is unable to strikeout many LHB (12.3 K%) and allows a .364 wOBA to them. Meanwhile, Castro has a .353 wOBA against RHP.
Victor Martinez (DET) - Martinez gets the same favorable matchup as Avila. At this point, I'm honestly not sure if Martinez's skills against RHP are better than Avila's but if you think they are go with Martinez as he hits in a better spot in the lineup.
Carlos Ruiz (PHI) - Since 2011 Ruiz has hit over .300 in 661 PA's against RHP. That works very well today against RHP Alex Sanabia who has reverse splits and is actually worse against RHB (.351 wOBA allowed).
First Base
Top Play
Prince Fielder (DET) - I think Fielder is the clear cut top hitter of the day. Lyles, as I mentioned above, struggles against LHB allowing 1.56 HR/9 against them and a .363 wOBA as well. Fielder has always crushed RHP, and in particular, since 2011, Fielder has a .425 wOBA, 1.024 OPS, 1.27 EYE, .279 ISO and only struck out 12.4% of the time - all elite numbers.
Other top plays include Lance Berkman (TEX), David Ortiz (BOS), Mike Napoli (BOS) and Chris Davis (BAL).
Value Plays
Paul Konerko (CHW) - The same handedness matchup really doesn't bother Konerko as he has a .375 wOBA against RHP the last several years. He faces Justin Grimm today. We don't have much of a sample size on Grimm, but he has been hurt by giving up a ton of line drives (27.5 LD% against RHB). ZIPS has Grimm for a ROS ERA well over 5, and the hitting environment (in Texas with the wind blowing out) is very favorable for Konerko.
Carlos Pena (HOU) - Due to a likely low price on a lot of sites, Pena is a decent value play. Porcello's .364 wOBA against LHB is the worst wOBA pitcher split on the day, and his low K rate against LHB limits Pena's biggest weakness - his propensity to strikeout. Still, I'll likely pay up for a better 1B - either Konerko, Fielder or one of the other top plays I have listed - but dollar for dollar, Pena (.348 wOBA against RHP since 2011) isn't a bad play if you need the cap room.
Ryan Howard (PHI) - Howard is a good play today as I expect the Phillies to get to Alex Sanabia. Sanabia has been okay against LHB, but some of that is luck related. In 58 IP against LHB Sanabia is giving up just .78 HR/9, but I expect his 6.7 HR/FB% to regress more towards 10%. When that happens Sanabia's high LD (22.9%) and FB (42.9%) rates could lead to big power numbers from LHB. Howard, since 2011, has a .250 ISO against RHP.
Second Base
Top Play
Dustin Pedroia (BOS) - Pedroia is easily the best 2B play in action today. He has an elite 1.42 EYE against LHP since 2011 that has led to a .943 OPS and .408 wOBA. Pedroia will be hitting against Jays' LHP JA Happ who has allowed a .343 wOBA to RHB and 1.18 HR/9.
Value Plays
Dan Uggla (ATL) - Haren's 2012 struggles (.353 wOBA, 1.36 HR/9 allowed to RHB) have continued so far in 2013 (.444 wOBA, 2.45 HR/9 allowed to RHB). With Uggla's power and career reverse splits (.221 ISO against RHP) he's a solid value play today.
Matt Carpenter (STL) - I think Wily Peralta has a pretty uncomfortable outing today against a deep Cardinals' lineup. Carpenter has been hitting sixth and should see plenty of RBI opportunities. In a small sample size Peralta has struggled against LHB (.335 wOBA allowed), and Carpenter thrives off of RHP (.300 BA, .361 wOBA since 2011).
Shortstop
Value Plays
Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) - I was tempted to make Marwin Gonzalez my best value play at SS, but the fact that he hits 9th really prevents that from happening. In 227 career plate appearances against RHP Gonzalez has a solid 85.5 contact rate and decent power for a cheap SS (.144 ISO). Going against Rick Porcello who is just bad against LHB, I think Gonzalez has a decent good at some individual success today at likely a cheap tag on most sites.
Jhonny Peralta (DET) - Peralta is a value play based on three things: (1) he's moderately to low priced on most sites, (2) the Tigers are one of the highest expected scoring teams on the day and (3) there aren't a lot of strong SS plays on the day.
Jimmy Rollins (PHI) - I like higher priced options at other positions today, so I will likely go cheap with Gonzalez or Peralta. However, Rollins is also a strong play leading off against Alex Sanabia who has a career 4.68 xFIP and ZIPS projected rest of season ERA of 5.55.
Third Base
Top Play
Miguel Cabrera (DET) - I'm clearly not going out on a limb here as Cabrera is the best 3B in action today. He has a huge .435 wOBA against RHP since the beginning of 2011 and is facing off against Jordan Lyles who has allowed a .325 wOBA to RHB and 1.1 HR/9.
Best Value Play
Will Middlebrooks (BOS) - Middlebrooks is a really strong value play today. He's hitting in Toronto which enhances right handed power quite a bit. On top of that Middlebrooks, who has a .237 ISO and .056 HR/PA against LHP, is facing JA Happ who has allowed a .343 wOBA and 1.18 HR/9 to RHB.
Other Value Plays
Michael Young (PHI) - Michael Young, hitting at the top of the Philadelphia lineup against Alex Sanabia, should see plenty of opportunities for success. The past few years he has a .299 BA against RHP, and although it comes with low power and patience, it should play well against Sanabia who has allowed a .297 BA to RHB with very low K (14.6%) and BB (4.5%) rates.
Conor Gillaspie (CHW) - It is only 93 plate appearances, but Gillaspie has shown some skills against RHP (.53 EYE, .214 ISO) that have led him to a solid .310/.366/.524 triple slash. Gillaspie should hit 6th today, and in a matchup against just an okay RHP in Texas with the wind blowing out, he's a good play if you are on a stricter pricing site and need some salary cap relief.
Outfield
The three outfielders I like most today are Ryan Braun, Mike Trout and Jose Bautista.
Best Value Play
Jonny Gomes (BOS) - Gomes for his price is absolutely one of the best value plays on the day. He has been hitting second for the Red Sox against LHP and for good reason. His .400 wOBA and .220 ISO in 330 PA's against LHP since 2011 is extremely impressive, and as I mentioned earlier, right handed power is enhanced in Toronto. Look for him and the Boston lineup to have success against JA Happ.
Value Plays
Andy Dirks (DET) - Dirks was awesome against RHP last year (.379 wOBA). While he will have a tough time duplicating that number again this year, Dirks clearly has a platoon edge and should take advantage of it today against Jordan Lyles (.363 wOBA, 1.56 HR/9 allowed to LHB).
Carlos Beltran (STL) - As I stated in Matt Carpenter's blurb, I expect the Cardinals to give Wily Peralta a tough time. Beltran should be heavily involved in the offense as he hits second and boasts the best wOBA against RHP since 2011 of the Cardinals' hitters.
Nick Markakis/Adam Jones (BAL) - Both of these Baltimore outfielders make good plays today against the very hittable Joe Blanton who serves up long balls to hitters on both sides of the plate (1.47 HR/9 to RHB, 1.34 HR/9 to LHB). I prefer Markakis because of the likely lower price, but price aside Jones is the better play.
Large Field Tournament Play
Mark Trumbo (LAA) - Trumbo is a strong GPP play today as he faces Chris Tillman who has yielded 1.47 HR/9 to RHB and allows a ton of fly balls (46.3%). This meshes well with Trumbo's power game (.221 ISO against RHP).
Jon Jay is another good splits play to take advantage of and might not be priced very highly. Josh Hamilton is still underpriced and has an okay matchup, but he's also swinging at everything so still a risk.
Starting Pitcher
Top Play
Kris Medlen (ATL) - In terms of talent, Medlen and Jake Peavy are in their own tier tonight, but with Peavy having a very tough matchup (at Texas), Medlen is the top play. Vegas has Medlen as one of the bigger favorites on the day (second best to Kendrick, but the Detroit line has not been set yet), playing in the game with the lowest total (7.5). I don't love the matchup but the Nationals are currently 20th in MLB with a .307 wOBA against RHP, and considering the other options on the day, Medlen is the best starting pitcher. UPDATE: Harper is day to day with a bruised side. Should he miss today's game (and it's looking like he will) it would only make this an even better start for Medlen. Jayson Werth is also questionable.
Value Plays
Kyle Kendrick (PHI) - Kendrick is facing what is simply a terrible Marlins lineup. Just due to randomness they will put up runs now and then (like yesterday), but they have no impact hitters with Stanton out and not a lot of guys that hit RHP well. Their season wOBA against RHP is dead last in MLB at .262, and their current lineup (due to injuries) is probably worse than it has been. Kendrick is not nearly as good as his ERA so far this season indicates, but he keeps the ball on the ground and has acceptable K/BB ratios, which is more than enough to get through this lineup.
Rick Porcello (DET) - I've yet to see a line on the Detroit game, but I'm assuming Porcello will be a heavy favorite. With not a lot good SP options today, Porcello isn't a bad play. He's uber cheap due to a dreadful start to the season and with a matchup against the Astros, he could walk into a win and a handful of strikeouts (Astros 27.4 K% against RHP is dead last in MLB).
