choosing a kicker: strategies? (yes, seriously)

[peacebyinches]

I understand that kickers' ff productions are the most random position to predict, but this week is make or break for me as far as making the playoffs in my league (lose and I'm out, win and I'm 95% getting in) so I'm looking for any insight at all.

When you guys do plug-and-play with kickers each week, what do you base your choice on?? For example, this week do I go with Rob Bironas who is playing Jacksonville's pathetic defense (also they are 31st against kickers) or Blair Walsh who is predicted to get more points and is ranked higher by the "expert analysts" but is playing Chicago's defense??

Does playing a stout defense possibly help kickers, in that the team may score less TD's and try for more FGs? Or is playing against a crap defense better because the kicker will at least get something? Which has more upside, (assuming their team has similar offensive abilities):

kicker vs. top tier defense OR kicker vs. crummy defense

[mikejamm]

Look for a kicker in a high scoring offense period. If a team is putting up points the kicker is too. A good offensive team is gonna move down the field anyway, so the kicker will have more opportunities for FG's as well as extra points.

[oiler]

definetly a kicker

[Straight Cash]

Look for a kicker in a high scoring offense period. If a team is putting up points the kicker is too. A good offensive team is gonna move down the field anyway, so the kicker will have more opportunities for FG's as well as extra points.

I agree, go with a kicker that will get a lot of points

[convick]

Go with the kicker on the team you think will score more points. If a team is scoring TDs, those are practically guaranteed pts for the kicker. It is really difficult to predict how many FGs a kicker will attempt. If you ask me, which kicker of the two could get 14-15 points this week, I would have to pick Bironas. Both should get 6-9 without a doubt, but Bironas has more potential to get to the next level based on the matchup.

[Speedy88]

First off, go with a kicker with a big leg. A kicker who can consistently kick from 50-54 yards, and a kicker that doesn't struggle with 45+. For instance, I have Dan Bailey. He is one of the younger kickers with a big leg. Dawson, Legatron, Walsh, etc. can all kick from 50+. I would stay away from some of the older kickers who don't quite have the same range (Lindell, Suisham, Hanson, Graham, etc.).

Also look at matchups as well. Get a team that has a kicker who can move the ball down field.

[ramones951]

Select a kicker who plays home games in a dome

Matt Bryant working out well for me this year

[dtp]

Kickers are 100% impossible to predict.

[wquine]

u want a scoring team, but i think having a shoddy red zone team is more valuable

[dudekid]

an underrated kicker this yr is matt prater...he plays for the broncos who we know can move the ball, hes got a big leg, and he plays his home games in high altitude which supposedly helps the distance...he is also playing against kc this weekend so there should be plenty of scoring

[Andy117]

I change kickers often especially later in the season. The thing I look at is weather conditions. Really awful weather can hurt the kicking game so I'll avoid a kicker playing in high winds, extreme cold etc.

[koz-man]

Agree hard to predict kickers.
I look for a kicker playing in a dome or for a high scoring team.

[will2survive]

Always a kicker on a high offensive team, therefore you're assured of points

[peacebyinches]

thanks guys, I appreciate the insights

I guess the consensus so far is pick the kicker who is on the team that you predict will simply have the more potent offense that week?

One thing I'm not sold on is the 'big leg is better' idea, while I do agree its not a good idea to have an older kicker whose coach isn't going to trust to kick 50+ yarders, I feel that sometimes having a kicker with TOO big of a leg can be frustrating when the coach sends them out to kick 60+ yarders for the hell of it

I had Greg Zuerlein (sp?) the rookie on the rams that apparently rivals Janikowski in kicking power and they actually had him try a 66 yarder this year (which was basically guaranteeing -1 points since the odds of him making that kick were pretty slim)

I guess thats not as ridiculous as that 76 yarder the Raiders had Janikowski try that one time... lol, but still kind of annoying. I guess there is some decent upside to potentially getting the 5 points so I can see that side of it

[onlooker]

Weather (look for dome games), offensive potential, and red zone effectiveness.

Like the Saints kicker, your pretty much guaranteed 5 points, but the chances he attempt a FG isn't that great. I stay away from him, because I want a kicker that tries FG's. Saints get TD's.

[Wulfman14]

look for a team that has a low scoring percentage in the red zone so they have to kick field goals.

[RealMadrid]

kicker in a high scoring offense period

[me-first]

I agree with most that has already been said..high scoring team, big leg, dome..etc..

[oiler]

getiing a kicker with lots of field goals is the answer

[eSTOXX]

kicker in ... high scoring team

[onlooker]

kicker in a high scoring offense period

Not necessarily.

-See Garrett Hartley.

[peacebyinches]

well, I ended up going with Bironas, got 13 points which I'll take. Didn't really need it though, guy I was playing against... well lets just say his team didn't show up this week