2012 RLM Thread

bigjohn89 · 09-29-12, 11:40 AM

Subscribed and tailing

trendon · 09-29-12, 04:08 PM

New Mexico appears to be a play; two sites showing 60+ on Boise.

EXhoosier10 · 09-29-12, 06:46 PM

Hope everyone had a profitable morning. Here's what I have for early games.
Middle Tennessee State +24.5 (A) - W : +1
Texas State +18 (H) - W : +1.25
BC was previously mentioned as a no play due to major injuries probably causing line movement
South Alabama +7.5 (H) - L : -1.375
Colorado +17.5 (H) - in play
SMU +13.5 (H) - in play

I believe that is everything. San Diego State needs to get down to +6 to be a play, so it doesn't look like there will be anything else tonight.

EXhoosier10 · 09-29-12, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by trendon

New Mexico appears to be a play; two sites showing 60+ on Boise.

SPortsinsights is showing 44% on New Mexico and SBR is at 54%. This was not a play. Mind if I ask wehre you saw 60% on boise?

trendon · 09-29-12, 08:47 PM

Covers and freesportsbet

EXhoosier10 · 09-29-12, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by trendon

Covers and freesportsbet

Interesting... Ya, I'm going to use Sportsinsights as my main source for recordkeeping purposes as that is the source that has been successful in the past. Feel free to continue stopping by and updating us with possible games! From other sites and feel free to track other sites In this thread as well if you're up for it

geauxtac1911 · 09-29-12, 10:55 PM

Did you play Indiana?

EXhoosier10 · 09-30-12, 07:32 AM

Originally posted by geauxtac1911

Did you play Indiana?

IU ended up moving 1.5 points from +11 to +12.5 from the time I posted to game time, so it ended up not being a play. I know it's hard to always get online to place bets just before gametime, but that's the best way to be sure you get true RLM (as opposed to placing wagers at 9am).

EXhoosier10 · 09-30-12, 07:48 AM

Week 5
Middle Tennessee State +24.5 (A) - W : +1
Texas State +18 (H) - W : +1.25
South Alabama +7.5 (H) - L : -1.375
Colorado +17.5 (H) - L : -1.375
SMU +13.5 (H) - W : +1.25

3-2 +0.75u

EXhoosier10 · 09-30-12, 07:49 AM

<table border="1" bordercolor="#FFCC00" style="background-color:#FFFFCC"> <tr> <td>Week</td> <td>Record</td> <td>Units</td> </tr>
<tr><td>Week 1</td> <td>2-0-0</td> <td>+2.0u</td></tr>
<tr><td>Week 2</td> <td>3-0-4</td> <td>-1.4u</td></tr>
<tr><td>Week 3</td> <td>4-1-1</td> <td>+3.375</td></tr>
<tr><td>Week 4</td> <td>4-0-1</td> <td>+3.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>Week 5</td> <td>3-0-2</td> <td>+0.75</td></tr>
<tr><td>YTD</td> <td>16-1-</td> <td>+8.125u</td></tr> </table>

EXhoosier10 · 10-03-12, 09:25 AM

ECU has moved 0.5 points so far with 45% and the rest of the games are going the other direction. Doesn't look like there will be any midweek action

rocket31 · 10-03-12, 12:36 PM

are you saying in that graph that RLM is 16-1 on the year?

Smutbucket · 10-03-12, 01:35 PM

its a type-o, its 16-1-8, but for some reason he has pushes in the middle instead of at the end....so in actuality its 16-8-1

EXhoosier10 · 10-03-12, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

<table border="1" bordercolor="#FFCC00" style="background-color:#FFFFCC"> <tr> <td>Week</td> <td>W-P-L</td> <td>Units</td> </tr>
<tr><td>Week 1</td> <td>2-0-0</td> <td>+2.0u</td></tr>
<tr><td>Week 2</td> <td>3-0-4</td> <td>-1.4u</td></tr>
<tr><td>Week 3</td> <td>4-1-1</td> <td>+3.375</td></tr>
<tr><td>Week 4</td> <td>4-0-1</td> <td>+3.4</td></tr>
<tr><td>Week 5</td> <td>3-0-2</td> <td>+0.75</td></tr>
<tr><td>YTD</td> <td>16-1-8</td> <td>+8.125u</td></tr> </table>

Was in fact a typo. RLM is 16-8 with 1 push. I put a key in the table, so hopefully this isn't confusing for others. wins-pushes-losses.

EXhoosier10 · 10-04-12, 04:07 PM

ECU moved a lot today, but betting is 50/50. CHeck back on Saturday

EXhoosier10 · 10-05-12, 11:09 AM

I see 3 games for tomorrow with another 4 or 5 on the cusp. Check back in the morning and I'll post what I see

trendon · 10-06-12, 01:08 AM

Navy, right?

EXhoosier10 · 10-06-12, 10:01 AM

Navy at +8 will be a play, correct, trendon. I'll be waiting until a bit closer to gametime to see last minute movement before it is official

EXhoosier10 · 10-06-12, 10:12 AM

Bold teams are currently plays. Non-bolded still need more movement or are not quite under or equal to 40%

11:30
Navy (crossover point is +8) 1u

12pm
Army (-8 or better) 1.25u
Temple (-3.5 or better) only has 43%
Uconn (+8 or better) 1u
Southern Miss (+9.5 or better) line is currently only +10
North Carolina (-5 or better) currently has 41%

16johnnymac · 10-06-12, 10:12 AM

Bet us has Navy +9 should I jump on it

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Navy at +8 will be a play, correct, trendon. I'll be waiting until a bit closer to gametime to see last minute movement before it is official

Dfjay9 · 10-06-12, 10:14 AM

Just got it at +8.5

You mean Army at +8 or better?

EXhoosier10 · 10-06-12, 10:27 AM

Navy is turning into a no play as it has moved to 8.5 at some books and 9 at others.

EXhoosier10 · 10-06-12, 10:28 AM

Originally posted by Dfjay9

Just got it at +8.5

You mean Army at +8 or better?

in this thread, by 'better', i mean more negative. So +8 was the crossover. +8, +7.5, +7 would be a play, +8.5, +9, +9.5 etc is no play

16johnnymac · 10-06-12, 10:34 AM

Well I bought points got Navy +10 will that work

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

in this thread, by 'better', i mean more negative. So +8 was the crossover. +8, +7.5, +7 would be a play, +8.5, +9, +9.5 etc is no play

16johnnymac · 10-06-12, 10:36 AM

I think I understand the Ml went from 370 to 320

EXhoosier10 · 10-06-12, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by 16johnnymac

Well I bought points got Navy +10 will that work

I mean, it's not a true RLM move, so it won't be a play in this thread, but I suppose you could still win.

Dfjay9 · 10-06-12, 10:38 AM

So navy was a play at +7.5 and not 8.5?

Smutbucket · 10-06-12, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by 16johnnymac

Well I bought points got Navy +10 will that work

your not understanding the concept of this thread. The plays in this thread are based on certain line values at certain books (books move their lines in an effort to balance their action) so when a large % is on one side yet the line value is moving another direction is when and only when their is a play in this thread. just listen to exhoosier....

16johnnymac · 10-06-12, 10:40 AM

Yes

EXhoosier10 · 10-06-12, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by Dfjay9

So navy was a play at +7.5 and not 8.5?

For my criteria, away teams need to move 2 points to be considered a play. Navy opened at +10, so it needs to close at at least +8 to be a play. If it's at 8.5, then yes, it is not a play.

16johnnymac · 10-06-12, 10:48 AM

So Kstate opened at -25 they are know -27 so would you play KState ......-27 or Kansas @+27?

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

For my criteria, away teams need to move 2 points to be considered a play. Navy opened at +10, so it needs to close at at least +8 to be a play. If it's at 8.5, then yes, it is not a play.

ninja33 · 10-06-12, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by 16johnnymac

So Kstate opened at -25 they are know -27 so would you play KState ......-27 or Kansas @+27?

no. everyone is betting on kansas state, so that move is expected. If everyone was betting on kansas state and the line moved towards Kansas (i.e. to +23 or lower), then it would be a play.

EXhoosier10 · 10-06-12, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by 16johnnymac

So Kstate opened at -25 they are know -27 so would you play KState ......-27 or Kansas @+27?

Check out my first post

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-betting/1881356-2012-rlm-thread.html#post15892304

EXhoosier10 · 10-06-12, 10:55 AM

Army is official for 1.25u

EXhoosier10 · 10-06-12, 10:56 AM

Uconn official for 1u