2012 RLM Thread

[EXhoosier10]

I've been betting college football using only RLM criteria for three years now and have had winning seasons each year.

I recall there being an RLM thread last year that was +units at the end of the year, so we'll be trying to hit that mark again in 2012.

Criteria that I have found to be successful is as follows:

--- Home teams must have at least a 1.5 point movement.
--- Away teams must have at least a 2 point movement.
--- Any spread over 28 points must cross over a key number (28, 31, 35, 42 are the ones I look for).
--- RLM is only considered if there is <= 40% of the action on that side.
--- I use (near) closing numbers to make plays

I've been using sportsinsight to get these numbers. I will continue to use that as my baseline, but will keep track of SBR percentages as well.

From what I saw, there were no RLM plays in week 1.

<table border="1" bordercolor="#FFCC00" style="background-color:#FFFFCC">
<tr> <td>Week</td> <td>Record</td> <td>Units</td> </tr>
<tr> <td>Week 1</td> <td>2-0</td> <td>+2.0u</td></tr>
<tr> <td>YTD</td> <td>2-0</td> <td>+2.0u</td></tr> </table>

[No coincidences]

[geauxtac1911]

Def going to follow this...buddy of mine did pretty good last year betting strictly on RLM. I was too hard headed to follow. Not this year!

[carter81]

[EXhoosier10]

Watchlist for Week of 9/6 - 9/8
Missouri opened at +3.5, currently +1.5 (24%)
Central Michigan opened, +24 currently +21.5 (21%)
Arizona opened +13.5, currently +11 (10%)

[BlacK_HazE]

There were multiple games that had reverse line movement (South carolina vs vandy) and I believe if I'm not mistaken Boise vs MSU as well. And that wasn't even including Saturday.. as far as I know they went undefeated

[venture]

Was UTEP a play opened at 31 went to 29.5 (dont know what it closed at) 12% was on it at one point (agien dont know what closed at)

[EXhoosier10]

"

[rocket31]

Okie State lined dropped to -11

[rofacapper]

Did quite well with this last year after getting burned the year before. I like your guidelines, I'll be with you on them.

[EXhoosier10]

Doesn't look like either of the Thursday or Friday games are going to be a play in this thread

[remetta2]

Can anyone suggest where would I find statistics about opening line, % bet on each team and how the line has moved? I am interested to monitor this for a while as a strategy.

thanks,
Rem

[geauxtac1911]

http://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/default.aspx

Here is tge site I use...

[EXhoosier10]

Plays for tomorrow looking like:
Missouri +2
Cent. Michigan +19.5
Arizona +10.5
if Western Kentucky gets to 37.5, I'd play for 1/2 as it's still only 2 points of a 40 point spread, meaning it's somewhat insignificant, all things considered.

I'll check in again tomorrow morning and again nearer to game time (All four of these games are 2:30pm central time or later)

[EXhoosier10]

Going to go ahead and book the following, all for the usual 1u

Missouri +1.5 -103
Central Michigan +20 -107
Arizona +11.5 -110

[EXhoosier10]

Going to go ahead and book the following, all for the usual 1u

Missouri +1.5 -103
Central Michigan +20 -107
Arizona +11.5 -110

Bovada changes every f'in time I log in. new lines and books are noted. Also forgot to mention that I play home RLM to win 1.25u, away RLM to win only 1u.

OFFICIAL PLAYS
Arizona +11 -105 (BOVADA) -- plays at home, so to win 1.25u
Missouri +1.5 -103 (5dimes) -- plays at home, so to win 1.25u
Central Michigan +20 -108 (5dimes) -- plays at home, so to win 1.25u

[dshaffe4]

Booked all 3 my dude. This is my first year trying out this RLM in college and NFL. It should make us some decent cash this year, Good Luck to you man!

[CappinTerp]

I like the Arizona play.! Good luck on all.

[dredmahawkus]

RLM in ncaab last year was killing it! Like up close to 50 units at one point. Then the last month of the season almost every single one lost and ended I think down for the year.

[EXhoosier10]

I like the Arizona play.! Good luck on all.

Thanks, Terp. Units on college football are smaller for me than for MLB, so this stuff is more of just action for me. Do you have a season long thread going for football?

[dredmahawkus]

.......

[EXhoosier10]

Reasons why it's necessary to look at lines as close to gametime as possible...
games not made, but should have been played
New Hampshire +13 (A)
Central Florida +15 (A)
Maryland +8 (A)
Tulane +21.5 (A)

More possible plays
2:30 CT - Syracuse +24.5 (Home, 1.5 points)

[EXhoosier10]

Week 2 (going forward, we'll assume -110 on every line for ease of record keeping):
New Hampshire +13 (A) - L
Central Florida -- dont see any shops hitting +15, so no play here
Maryland +8 (A) - W
Tulane +21.5 (A) - L
Syracuse +24.5 (H) - W (v ranked #2)
Arizona +11 (H) - W (v ranked #16)
Missouri +1.5 (H) - L (v ranked #7)
Central Michigan +20 (H) - L (v ranked #11)

Week 2 - 3-4 -1.4u

I may put a filter on ignoring RLM when an unranked team plays a top 10 or 15 team, so I'll be keeping track of that in here as well. Any help would be appreciated.

[EXhoosier10]

<table border="1" bordercolor="#FFCC00" style="background-color:#FFFFCC">
<tr> <td>Week</td> <td>Record</td> <td>Units</td> </tr>
<tr> <td>Week 1</td> <td>2-0</td> <td>+2.0u</td></tr>
<tr> <td>Week 2</td> <td>3-4</td> <td>-1.4u</td></tr>
<tr> <td>YTD</td> <td>5-4</td> <td>+0.6u</td></tr> </table>

[gojetsgomoxies]

Thx for this thread..

Would love to track what games this board gets aggressively arrogant towards.... Yesterday would be pro nebraska and negative Arizona, both of which were losing bets.. Any other games come to mind?

[EXhoosier10]

Thx for this thread..

Would love to track what games this board gets aggressively arrogant towards.... Yesterday would be pro nebraska and negative Arizona, both of which were losing bets.. Any other games come to mind?

Honestly I don't follow / watch any college football, let alone read the rest of the threads.

[EXhoosier10]

Keep an eye out for Rutgers on Thursday and UNLV on Friday. lines are moving

[EXhoosier10]

Rutgers (Thurs) has moved 2 points to +7.5, but has > 40% on their side.
UNLV (Fri) has moved 3 points to +8.5, but like Rutgers, has >40% on their side.

Check back around 6pm on Thursday and 8pm on Friday for plays.

[EXhoosier10]

Rutgers is going to be a no play due to there being a 50/50 split on the action

[matelionis]

9/15 - NCAA RLM

Pitt +10
Cal +16.5
SMU +12.5
Ole Miss +9.5

[EXhoosier10]

No play on UNLV as they are > 40% on their side.

[nrok2118]

I just ran through and I got

Boston College
SMU
Pitt U
North Carolina

[EXhoosier10]

Thanks for the help matelionis and nrok.

BC needs 2 points since they're on the road, and I'm only seeing 1 or 1.5. +2.5 is when it becomes a play.
SMU is a play at +10.5.
Pitt at +10 is a play

Will get to later games as they approach.

[EXhoosier10]

Heading out for the afternoon, most likely won't be back to post the rest of the plays.

Here are the games that need to be watched
SMU
East Carolina
Arizona State
Troy
Utah

today everyone

[matelionis]

You missed PITT and CAL