CFB 2012 (also NFL)

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Teaser: Saints (-3) + Bucs (+9) (-115 ties win)
1* Jaguars/Vikings under 37' (-104)

could've bought a half on JAC/MIN under for -118 (so 14c difference). push chart says that 38 comes in 2.7% of the time, so pass, but did consider it. paying close to -120 juice for a total just seems like a bad idea.

NFL Week One updated card
2* Colts/Bears over 43 (-107)
1* Parlay: Jets ML + Saints ML + Eagles ML (+144)
1* Teaser: Saints (-3) + Bucs (+9) (-115 ties win)
1* Jaguars/Vikings under 37' (-104)

BOL to all today.

[2daBank]

can't get that Saints + Bears teaser at a decent price, Bank. oh well. will probably play Bucs, and played your ML parlay just swapped Texans with a Clowns fade.

saints can fukkin blow me..only gm im missing and it hurts....

[Madison]

Was keyd on Hou/under. Mary/temp cost me a nice weekend. End up EV.

[BiffTFinancial]

NFL Week One updated card
2* Colts/Bears over 43 (-107) - WINNER
1* Parlay: Jets ML + Saints ML + Eagles ML (+144) - LOSER
1* Teaser: Saints (-3) + Bucs (+9) (-115 ties win) - LOSER
1* Jaguars/Vikings under 37' (-104) - LOSER

1-3 -1.19u

tough start. Saints blew the parlay and the teaser, and Jags/Vikes total was still alive until long pass with 20 seconds to play. bah.

[BiffTFinancial]

like anything for tonight, Bank? initially lean Raiders and Bengals, but let's be honest, fk if i know.

[Madison]

Haven't checked bball but the NFL looks like a good night to get out the Jameson and avoid the books IMHO. GL.

[BiffTFinancial]

Haven't checked bball but the NFL looks like a good night to get out the Jameson and avoid the books IMHO. GL.

Funny you should mention that. Got a buddy coming in from the Lou and we're having a sick dinner on work with plenty of jameson. Just found out I won the week in big money CFB pool, 150 right there. Gonna pass on NFL probably and enjoy.

[Madison]

Funny you should mention that. Got a buddy coming in from the Lou and we're having a sick dinner on work with plenty of jameson. Just found out I won the week in big money CFB pool, 150 right there. Gonna pass on NFL probably and enjoy.

Thought I saw you on UM vs Kstate. I was late (as usual) but I would have def tried to talk you off that one. Have a great night. BOL.

[BigBoi]

Already looking at Saturdays numbers. Like Michigan St -5, Florida +3, Louisville 3', BYU -4', Arizona St +7, Stanford +9, and Penn State -5'. Havent seen any totals but Navy/Penn St total will be low. Also like Notre Dame TT under as long as its a decent number.

[terrortwylight]

Biff, can't wait to see your plays this week coming up here.. NFL lines look a little better and we know more about these teams now. I'm sure you will kill it.

[Madison]

NFL Week One updated card
2* Colts/Bears over 43 (-107) - WINNER
1* Parlay: Jets ML + Saints ML + Eagles ML (+144) - LOSER
1* Teaser: Saints (-3) + Bucs (+9) (-115 ties win) - LOSER
1* Jaguars/Vikings under 37' (-104) - LOSER

1-3 -1.19u

tough start. Saints blew the parlay and the teaser, and Jags/Vikes total was still alive until long pass with 20 seconds to play. bah.

Before you start getting creative with NFL teasers please consider Madison. I believe I copied you successfully on a quite a few LY. This is my sweet spot. Had Hou/Hou under/ Chi/ NE/ and DEt. I backed off a bit on Det based on some input from 2DB, line movement, and some PS pluses on the QB.

2DB cards got 13 off to's. Cards D or Det mistakes? Det marched up and down otherwise no?

Will post my play here later.

Curently 0-1 with NCAA (My model clearly doesn't work)
1-0 NFL ... stupid me I bet an equal amount on both so -.10

[Madison]

Apologies it's BB but Harvards leading scorer leaving school in cheating scandal.

[BiffTFinancial]

Thought I saw you on UM vs Kstate. I was late (as usual) but I would have def tried to talk you off that one. Have a great night. BOL.

Chose U in my big pool. Have to choose ATS on 11 game common card, then 100 confidence points on 5 (5-50 per). Due 3 pm Thursday have capped most of games and will post thoughts in a few.

[BiffTFinancial]

Already looking at Saturdays numbers. Like Michigan St -5, Florida +3, Louisville 3', BYU -4', Arizona St +7, Stanford +9, and Penn State -5'. Havent seen any totals but Navy/Penn St total will be low. Also like Notre Dame TT under as long as its a decent number.

Like Sparty and Irish TT under a lot. Lean with you on BYU and PSU. I actually like Tennessee. Lean Stanford but that game is pass for me. Really having hard time with UNC/Louisville. BOL and thanks for posting your thoughts.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, can't wait to see your plays this week coming up here.. NFL lines look a little better and we know more about these teams now. I'm sure you will kill it.

thanks, terrortwylight, let's get it.

[BiffTFinancial]

Before you start getting creative with NFL teasers please consider Madison. I believe I copied you successfully on a quite a few LY. This is my sweet spot. Had Hou/Hou under/ Chi/ NE/ and DEt. I backed off a bit on Det based on some input from 2DB, line movement, and some PS pluses on the QB.

2DB cards got 13 off to's. Cards D or Det mistakes? Det marched up and down otherwise no?

Will post my play here later.

Curently 0-1 with NCAA (My model clearly doesn't work)
1-0 NFL ... stupid me I bet an equal amount on both so -.10

look forward to seeing what you have, Madison.

Apologies it's BB but Harvards leading scorer leaving school in cheating scandal.

never a need to apologize for posting college hoops intel. Harvard, the William & Mary of the North.

[BiffTFinancial]

okay, so tonight is my big night for CFB capping this week. my big pool is due at 3 pm Thursday, but playing hoops at crack of dawn then work, so really want to make my decisions tonight. any thoughts/insight welcome. have to pick 11 games ATS, then assign 100 confidence points to 5 of the games (min 5 max 50 per game).

the games

Rutgers +9' at USF ---- lean Rutgers (model says USF by FG or less, like 24-23)
Cal +17' at Ohio State ---- Buckeyes with confidence points. love OSU, over 52, Bucks TT over in this game. (43-20)
Wake +24' at Florida State ---- lean Noles, maybe confidence points (model says Noles 38-10 and man could Wake get held to 7 or less)
UNC +3' at Louisville --- lean UNC, thinking a good chance of a field goal deciding it, 0 confidence points
Bama -19' at Arkansas ---- lean Bama, maybe confidence points (Tide 36-14 and easy to see Arky getting totally shut down)
ND +3' at MSU ---- like Sparty a lot, will have confidence points on this one (Sparty by 7+)
Florida +2' at Tennessee ---- lean Vols
Arizona State +7' at Missou ---- lean ASU, chicks so hot
USC -9' at Stanford ---- lean Tree, 0 confidence points
Texas -10' at Ole Miss ---- Horns i guess, 0 confidence points
BYU -3' at Utah ---- lean BYU

[BiffTFinancial]

coupla revisions

not so sure about UF/UT. thinking it's a coinflip so perhaps points are good. either way, i'm not betting that game, but i have to pick it in the pool. Gators +2' perhaps, bah. love the under there for an actual bet.

really like the overs in Cal/OSU and ASU/Missou, which makes me lean Missou on the side. think that game's in the 70s, 40-something to 30-something.

[kiknit]

Finally, Im on the same side...for most of 'em:

Cal +17' at Ohio State ---- Buckeyes with confidence points. love OSU, over 52, Bucks TT over in this game. (43-20)

Cal has given up at least 30 ppg in their last 6 outings...and even though OSU went dormant in the last 23min of the UCF game - after putting up 31pts - Ohio State has a huge offensive edge: theyve outrushed opponents 576-111r...most of that coming from QB Miller. Cal had just a little more than 100 rush yards against Nevada and gave up 450. I cant seen Cal keeping it close for long...but the over does look good!

Wake +24' at Florida State ---- lean Noles, maybe confidence points (model says Noles 38-10 and man could Wake get held to 7 or less)

Florida State has had a little party all to themselves this season - outscoring opponents 124-3 - although you have to consider the competition. QB is at 77% completion and the D only allowed 28 yds last week...again the competition in Savanah St...but in the last 8 lined games the D held opponents to avg 11.6 point per game - and its a D that returns 9 starters. Wake D is soft at best. Theyve got a great passing game, but a non-existing rush game.

ND +3' at MSU ---- like Sparty a lot, will have confidence points on this one (Sparty by 7+)

ND went from a 50-10 win - which was a 24.5pt cover - to squeeking one out in a 12pt ATS loss. Lost QB after he threw for almost 300yds against Purdue, but he's expected to be back for this game. Sparty hasnt allowed an Offensive TD yet this season and have only given up a combined 109 rush yards in their 2 games. Not to mention this series favors Sparty, 11-4 ATS[/quote]

Florida +2' at Tennessee ---- lean Vols

This one just by the numbers. Florida is 1-8ATS in their last 9, by a massive 87.5points. Vols seem to have found a balanced O in the last 2 games: 191 and 185 rush yards and 333 and 374 pass yards in the last 2 games. Thinking Tennessee has finally lost the 'Rilvary Curse'

USC -9' at Stanford ---- lean Tree, 0 confidence points

Everyone seems to want to remember Stanford with Luck...but he's not there to keep them in games anymore. So they blew Duke out of the water...yawn. There were 4 turnovers that pretty much sealed that one. USC an impressive 44ppg in the last 7 games behind Barkley - who is fresh off his 6TD showing. All-star cast just too much for Stanford to handle.

BYU -3' at Utah ---- lean BYU

Utah is missing key component in Wynn with a shoulder injury...and last I heard he's out for ths one. Not to mention a poor 96 rushing yard performance against the Aggies. White may have 200+ rush yards, but he's only one guy and theyre gonna need more than that to hang with BYU...who is on fire as of late. 40ppg average in the last 7 and a 7-0 ATS run by 70.5pts.

Just my $0.02...take it for what its worth

[BiffTFinancial]

kiknit

good stuff, thanks for posting your well-reasoned thoughts. getting close to first draft stage.

nice dog!

[BiffTFinancial]

okay, first draft

Rutgers +9' (with X conf pts)
OSU -17' (20+)
FSU -24' (X)
UNC +3' (0)
Bama -19' (20+)
UF/UT tough call (0)
Missou -7' (X)
USC/Tree tough call (0)
Sparty -3' (20+)
Horns -10' (X)
BYU -3' (0)

OSU, Bama and Sparty will have 20+ points. then, choosing two from Rutgers (at a good number), Noles, Missou, Horns.

[BiffTFinancial]

holy shit that's a chalky card.

[BiffTFinancial]

Week Three leans

OSU
Cal/OSU over
OSU TT over
Sparty
Irish TT under
Bama
UF/UT under
ASU/Missou over
Noles
Auburn
Va Tech (Pitt fade)
Bowling Green

also gotta check out WVU and Kansas overs

[BiffTFinancial]

overnight draft

Rutgers +9' (10 conf pts)
Buckeyes -17' (25)
Noles -24'
UNC +3'
Bama -19' (25)
Florida/Vols -2' ---- tough call, love the under on this game
Missou -7' (10) ---- like the over. talk me out of Missou if they're the wrong side, Bank (have Missou by 10-14)
Stanford +9'
Michigan State -3' (30)
Texas -10'
BYU -3'

have a good one

[2daBank]

not sure id touch mizzou laying anything more than a td (there some 6.5s out there to be had and i cant argue with that number at all).

tex seems like a no brainer...


vtech/pit under seems solid and loving the under in nd/msu gm....

havnt gotten real far on card prob play wvu- whatever, lean over in ark/bama gm but i cant pick a over to save my life, not sure i got balls to plau ulmonroe after upsetting ark but hard not to like them...

[BiffTFinancial]

revised draft. this will most likely be it. thanks for weighing in, fellas.

Rutgers +9' (10)
Ohio State -17' (25)
Florida State -24'
UNC +3'
Bama -19' (25)
Tennessee -2'
Missou -7' ---- really torn on this one. numbers say Missou, but Bank likes Devils and ASU chicks so hot
Stanford +9'
MSU -3' (30)
Texas -10' (10)
BYU -3'

[newbottles]

Biff I look forward to a profitable NCAA season and....limited damage on NFL ha ha.

I am also on the Rutgers +9 from earlier in the week. Line keeps dropping so that feels good. +9' even sharper well done.

Also I have locked in Stanford +9 and San Jose State -11 at -110 and high conviction. I am waiting for reduced juice at 5Dimes to play the rest. I have quite a few. I did very well in week 2 so if it happens again I will show up here to talk details with you during the week.

We overlap on the following games. I am with you on:
Rutgers
Alabama
Missouri
Stanford
Texas

I am on the other side on:
Wake Forest +28 vs Florida St
Florida +3 vs Tennessee
Utah +4 vs BYU

You on the Packers tonight? I took the -6 at -104 yesterday. Over very tempting as well.

BOL

[Rick22]

Good luck Pal - might tail a few of these as I'm still spending weekends up north at the lake. Getting cooler every weekend so I may get serious soon.

[BiffTFinancial]

leaning Rutgers and under, will probably book Rutgers soon.

lean Pack and over in NFL but interested in thoughts there. NFL short turnaround week is rough.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff I look forward to a profitable NCAA season and....limited damage on NFL ha ha.

I am also on the Rutgers +9 from earlier in the week. Line keeps dropping so that feels good. +9' even sharper well done.

Also I have locked in Stanford +9 and San Jose State -11 at -110 and high conviction. I am waiting for reduced juice at 5Dimes to play the rest. I have quite a few. I did very well in week 2 so if it happens again I will show up here to talk details with you during the week.

We overlap on the following games. I am with you on:
Rutgers
Alabama
Missouri
Stanford
Texas

I am on the other side on:
Wake Forest +28 vs Florida St
Florida +3 vs Tennessee
Utah +4 vs BYU

You on the Packers tonight? I took the -6 at -104 yesterday. Over very tempting as well.

BOL

what's up newbottles. nice to see that we agree on a lot. UF/UT one of the toughest games to cap this weekend i say. can't say i'm crazy about laying the wood with FSU in my pool, but Wake is not built to play from behind so i'll keep my fingers crossed that Jimbo is going for style points late.

thinking hard about Pack and over.

[BiffTFinancial]

Good luck Pal - might tail a few of these as I'm still spending weekends up north at the lake. Getting cooler every weekend so I may get serious soon.

hey, Rick, good to see ya brother. be prepared to play some Badgers unders this year.

[groovybrandone]

i like the over tonight in the pack/bears game, but i think the safer bet is bears tt over.

assuming tonight is going to start with running, and eventually end up in an air battle - i think bears at least hit 23 (5dimes). both lacking defense, on short rest i like this game to be high 20's - mid 30's on either side

[BiffTFinancial]

CFB Week Three (Thursday night)
2* Rutgers +7' (-115)

also like USF TT under 26 but figured that this was a good way to pay an extra 5c juice heh heh. BOL to all tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

i like the over tonight in the pack/bears game, but i think the safer bet is bears tt over.

assuming tonight is going to start with running, and eventually end up in an air battle - i think bears at least hit 23 (5dimes). both lacking defense, on short rest i like this game to be high 20's - mid 30's on either side

thanks a lot, checking that out right now. might put a unit on over or Bears TT over. BOL to you tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

i like the over tonight in the pack/bears game, but i think the safer bet is bears tt over.

assuming tonight is going to start with running, and eventually end up in an air battle - i think bears at least hit 23 (5dimes). both lacking defense, on short rest i like this game to be high 20's - mid 30's on either side

hmmm, i like your angle here. gonna play it for 1u, BOL to us. woot!