Mac's early leans...

[Mac4Lyfe]

Several leans for this week... I've bolded the lines that really look good.

7:30pm College Football 104 South Florida -8½ -110* vs Rutgers
3:30pm College Football 112 Northwestern -3½ -110* vs Boston College
12:00pm College Football 117 Wake Forest +26½ -110* vs Florida State
3:30pm College Football 121 Texas A&M -13 -110* vs SMU
12:00pm College Football 123 Virginia Tech -10 -110* vs Pittsburgh U
7:30pm College Football 125 USC -8½ -110* vs Stanford
9:15pm College Football 132 Mississippi +10½ -110* vs Texas
10:00pm College Football 135 BYU -4 -110* vs Utah
3:30pm College Football 138 Louisville -3½ -105* vs North Carolina
12:00pm College Football 145 TCU -21 -110* vs Kansas
10:30pm College Football 176 UCLA -17 -110* vs Houston U
12:00pm College Football 117 Wake Forest +25 -110* vs Florida State

[Mac4Lyfe]

2 NFL plays on the night...

9/10/12 10:15pm NFL Football 482 Oakland Raiders Under 24 -115* vs San Diego Chargers
9/10/12 10:15pm NFL Football 481 San Diego Chargers pk -105* vs Oakland Raiders

[Mac4Lyfe]

2 NFL plays on the night...

9/10/12 10:15pm NFL Football 482 Oakland Raiders Under 24 -115* vs San Diego Chargers
9/10/12 10:15pm NFL Football 481 San Diego Chargers pk -105* vs Oakland Raiders

2 - 0 Last night in the NFL...

Updated...
College : 28-12
NFL : 6-3

[Laissez Faire]

nice hits last night

[easyliving]

I usually don't blindly tail anyone but I am very tempted to tail your college picks. Are you usually this solid at capping or have you been on a hot streak?

[Mac4Lyfe]

I usually don't blindly tail anyone but I am very tempted to tail your college picks. Are you usually this solid at capping or have you been on a hot streak?

I wouldn't blindly tail anyone as you never know when they are going to go on a losing streak. As soon as I start bragging, you can better believe it, I'll start losing. So I never want to toot my own horn or believe my own press :-)

I usually do fairly well on college. I know a lot of people in the college game, from coaches, to assistants, to players and students at various campuses which I'd like to think is an advantage but it's probably just enough to make me dangerous. I really just keep a running thread for my own tracking and for discussion. I sure hope no one puts a mortgage check on anything I say. I tend to do better the less plays I make as I can focus on a few lines. Whenever I start picking a lot of games my average tends to come down a bit. I always use money management and try to pick my spots. Last year, I made picks and put units played but this year, I thought I'd just make picks and not focus on total units. Keep it simple. I use to do a lot of write ups as well but it's time consuming and opened too much criticism/bashing.

I'm not as effective on the NFL. The NFL lines are so tight and it's difficult to get information. It's real tough to get a read on NFL games because the talent level is so close and any team can be beat on any given Sunday let alone cover a line.

[El Nino]

Good going so far, pal

[pimpinaces]

Keep it up

[eleuropeano]

Great thread, it's great to have insights from guys who know what they are talking about. Hope your success continues.

[easyliving]

alright sounds good will only tail the plays you really like. I would rather tail a person giving 2-3 plays a week instead of posting 7-8 plays a week as you said the fewer plays allows a person to focus more on games

[TheCalculator]

THANK YOU!

Are the bolded College selections the official picks for this week?

[Mac4Lyfe]

THANK YOU!

Are the bolded College selections the official picks for this week?

Not yet... Still crunching some numbers.

But here's the 1st play locked and loaded...
9/15/12 12:00pm College Football 117 Wake Forest +28 -120* vs Florida State

[ZBOIZ]

Wake is such a strong play this weekend. Groh and his boys should keep it close

[hunter8720]

that wake line is moving the wrong way?

[possum11]

Florida St out to prove they are legit after losing to this team several times lately. Won't be surprised if Wake scores a goose egg here.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Wake is such a strong play this weekend. Groh and his boys should keep it close

Wassup Z? I agree, Wake believes that they can play with FSU. Most of their kids are from Florida and have a chip on their shoulders for FSU. Wake's offensive line is the one question mark but the same could be said about FSU's Oline as well. I like Price as a QB over overrated (to me) Manuel and I think Wake will dial up plays in the flat and screens to slow down FSU's rush. I like FSU's receivers but that may mean Manuel will be over confident and throw some balls up for grabs.

that wake line is moving the wrong way?

I expect it to keep going up as the lemmings keep betting FSU because they are over hyped every year then go down by game time. 28 points is more than enough for me.

Florida St out to prove they are legit after losing to this team several times lately. Won't be surprised if Wake scores a goose egg here.

Didn't FSU try to prove they were legit last year too? Do you really think FSU got 28 points better in one year?

[Mac4Lyfe]

2nd and 3rd plays locked and loaded...

9/15/12 8:00pm College Football 163 Utah State +14 -110* vs Wisconsin
9/15/12 8:00pm College Football 163 Utah State/Wisconsin Under 51 -110*

Wow - the under has tremendous value in this game. This line seems off by about 6 points. I know Wisconsin's defense is trash but this is either a huge trap or gift wrap. I can't out think the room.

[groovybrandone]

lets get it mac!

[Mac4Lyfe]

Not going to grade this one but I think it may be worth throwing a few dollars on...

9/15/12 12:00pm College Football 117 Wake Forest +3375* vs Florida State
$100 to win $3375

Which team can run the ball in this game? Probably neither, which opens up the chance of an upset. Early afternoon game, FSU fans not real enthusiastic about attending this one, FSU blew out inferior teams and maybe not battle tested or as good as they've looked, FSU reading the press, possible thunderstorms which would favor the running game??? Perfect storm maybe? Jimbo? Manuel? I'm loving Wake and the points but I'm warming up to the ML as well.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Utah State +425 ML maybe worth a few dollars as well. Wisky's offensive line has been horrid, fired the OL coach (which will actually help Wisc.), but will the line play inspired or fall flat again?

[Bearly_There]

Put my picks up next to yours and pulled the trigger on the matches:

Utah St
BYU
ATM
Wake
USC
UCLA

Good luck on those

[brinkstaa]

good luck bro

[guy Fawkes]

Utah State +425 ML maybe worth a few dollars as well. Wisky's offensive line has been horrid, fired the OL coach (which will actually help Wisc.), but will the line play inspired or fall flat again?

I definitely think Utah State has better than the 17.5% chance they are being given, but still not an abundantly likely outcome. I love them +14 in this spot and will probably sprinkle on the moneyline for giggles.

Good luck to you if you decide to take the ballsy one, I hit the Aggie moneyline pretty hard last week and I think that's enough sweat for me.

[Ch Br]

Last year, I made picks and put units played but this year, I thought I'd just make picks and not focus on total units. Keep it simple. I use to do a lot of write ups as well but it's time consuming and opened too much criticism/bashing.

I say fukkkk what other ppl say and do what you want. Ppl are gonna talk shit no matter what.. its unavoidable....

Personally i agree with focusing on less plays and really sharpshooting the soft lines. I would like to see your more in depth thoughts on games... but thats just me

BOL, you gained a follower for concise points, logical judgement, and the most important MONEY MANAGEMENT SKILLS!

[blue chip]

Wassup Z? I agree, Wake believes that they can play with FSU. Most of their kids are from Florida and have a chip on their shoulders for FSU. Wake's offensive line is the one question mark but the same could be said about FSU's Oline as well. I like Price as a QB over overrated (to me) Manuel and I think Wake will dial up plays in the flat and screens to slow down FSU's rush. I like FSU's receivers but that may mean Manuel will be over confident and throw some balls up for grabs.
I expect it to keep going up as the lemmings keep betting FSU because they are over hyped every year then go down by game time. 28 points is more than enough for me.

Didn't FSU try to prove they were legit last year too? Do you really think FSU got 28 points better in one year?

Havent they also tried to prove they were legit the last 15 years or so? Anyone who bets a game because a team is trying to PROVE something should quit gambling. I'll bet Savannah State's coach told them they could prove something by shocking the world. Every frickin team that takes the field is trying to PROVE they are legit.

[AzNsEnSaTiOn]

Hey Mac, USF line down to 7.5 now. You really think USF is that much better than Rut this year? They've only beat Rut once in the last 6 seasons. Why the pick here? Just because of Daniels?

[Mac4Lyfe]

Hey Mac, USF line down to 7.5 now. You really think USF is that much better than Rut this year? They've only beat Rut once in the last 6 seasons. Why the pick here? Just because of Daniels?

I hadn't locked in that game yet. I was initially liking USF but thinking that this is now a no play. Rutger's defense is probably a little better than I originally gave credit but there's still a lot unknown there. This game is probably best to take a live bet if your itchy. The only thing that's standing out to me right now is Rutger's team total under 18.5 but much better games ahead this week.

I'm going to pass on this one as well as the NFL tonight. I hate Thursday football...

[curtrambus]

Been real impressed with your plays Mac. I just found this site last week and basically needed to sort through all the b.s. to find someone honest and with actual info. Yer my boy blue! HaHa anyways I use the technique of look for trends of who everyone who seems logical is betting and then the ones that I agree with I play. This week I have a parlay going with USC -9 1/2, Wake +28 1/2, and Northwestern -2 1/2 for 1 unit to win just below 4 units. I also took 1.25 units to win 1 unit on Wake plus 28 1/2 and 2.4 units to win 2 units on USC minus 9 1/2. My local guy jacks up favorites so I had to pay extra to get my spreads with Wake and USC. It's so bad that I almost don't want to bet TCU he jacked that game up to minus 24 to bet on TCU and thats where I'd like your opinion if I should buy down to 23 1/2. That game was the game I liked the most and I wanted to buy it down to minues 20 1/2 for 2 units but now I can't. How do you feel about -23 1/2 with TCU would you still jam it?

[curtrambus]

Oh and in NFL I actually went 6-1 last week here's how that played out and I have Bears straight up tonight for 1 unit to win 1.8 units
Broncos -3 Steelers 1 unit $$$$
Ravens game took the over .5 unit $$$
Pats -5 or -4 or whatever it was .5 unit $$$$
Carolina -3 or whatever lost
Raiders game took the under 1 unit $$$$$$
Cowboys +3 .5 unit $$$
Texans -14 .5 unit $$$
Overall really good week nfl and college I went like 7-7 because I put in some dumb bets before I started following the boards and paying attention made a dumb bet on the Badgers cuz I'm a huge Badger homer. FYI I don't mind your bet this week on the +14 with Utah State because they look good A, B Badgers secondary is terrible we don't generate any pash rush whatsoever and it's a joke Ash and Partridge don't even know how to run a friggin stunt I swear and Mike Taylor can't cover anyone, and C our offensive line is going to be better but not as much as you'd think right away in another 2 or 3 weeks you will see the Badger line of old. Overall though I like most of your bets I just can't bet against my Badgers. My biggest bet this week is the USC bet. I just really can't see them not blowing out Stanford. The Cuse game I don't think they were very jacked up for and going into Stanford for a conference game with a team that beat them last year I got the feeling it's statement time. Regards to my Bears bet against the Pack tonight I have a sick gut feeling that Green Bay is gunna start 0-2 and then win 10 straight and the bears are a good team that is overdue for a win over the Pack. I wouldn't mess with the spread though just take the Bears straight up for the value...my gut has been right when it comes to NFL lately feel free to tail if you want. Pack secondary is garbage the rookies aren't stepping up enough yet. There isn't really a ton of logic in this play it's mainly a gut feeling. I'm a Pack fan and just see this happening where they lose tonight by 3 or something it's going to be a FG game either way and that's why I'm saying take the Bears straight up.

[Mac4Lyfe]

It's so bad that I almost don't want to bet TCU he jacked that game up to minus 24 to bet on TCU and thats where I'd like your opinion if I should buy down to 23 1/2. That game was the game I liked the most and I wanted to buy it down to minues 20 1/2 for 2 units but now I can't. How do you feel about -23 1/2 with TCU would you still jam it?

Man, I hate laying 3 TD's on a road fave, so I would really hate to lay 24. I wouldn't buy it down to 23.5, I'd just go with 24 but that's tough. I really think Kansas is reeling right now and TCU should cover 24 but why lay it when you can get 21 somewhere else? These type of games are where people get buried, especially on a high line road fave. I still like TCU but it's no longer one of my stronger plays...

[Mac4Lyfe]

Nice job. I'm going to tail you on the Bears tonight. Their offensive line looked much improved albeit against the Colts but Cutler finally has some weapons.

I think Wisconsin will turn it around on the Oline pretty soon as well. I'm just hoping it's not this week.

Be careful with USC. I can't put my hands on it but Kiffin seems to play games too close to the vest. He's very predictable in his game plan and conservative. I could see them leading by double digits but playing safe only to allow a backdoor cover in the end. The line is at -8, so I wouldn't dare touch -9.5

USC is awful on 3rd down conversions and is allowing too many yards in the air. They also are not very disciplined with too many penalties still. I'm thinking Stanford covers in the end of this one...

Oh and in NFL I actually went 6-1 last week here's how that played out and I have Bears straight up tonight for 1 unit to win 1.8 units
Broncos -3 Steelers 1 unit $$$$
Ravens game took the over .5 unit $$$
Pats -5 or -4 or whatever it was .5 unit $$$$
Carolina -3 or whatever lost
Raiders game took the under 1 unit $$$$$$
Cowboys +3 .5 unit $$$
Texans -14 .5 unit $$$
Overall really good week nfl and college I went like 7-7 because I put in some dumb bets before I started following the boards and paying attention made a dumb bet on the Badgers cuz I'm a huge Badger homer. FYI I don't mind your bet this week on the +14 with Utah State because they look good A, B Badgers secondary is terrible we don't generate any pash rush whatsoever and it's a joke Ash and Partridge don't even know how to run a friggin stunt I swear and Mike Taylor can't cover anyone, and C our offensive line is going to be better but not as much as you'd think right away in another 2 or 3 weeks you will see the Badger line of old. Overall though I like most of your bets I just can't bet against my Badgers. My biggest bet this week is the USC bet. I just really can't see them not blowing out Stanford. The Cuse game I don't think they were very jacked up for and going into Stanford for a conference game with a team that beat them last year I got the feeling it's statement time. Regards to my Bears bet against the Pack tonight I have a sick gut feeling that Green Bay is gunna start 0-2 and then win 10 straight and the bears are a good team that is overdue for a win over the Pack. I wouldn't mess with the spread though just take the Bears straight up for the value...my gut has been right when it comes to NFL lately feel free to tail if you want. Pack secondary is garbage the rookies aren't stepping up enough yet. There isn't really a ton of logic in this play it's mainly a gut feeling. I'm a Pack fan and just see this happening where they lose tonight by 3 or something it's going to be a FG game either way and that's why I'm saying take the Bears straight up.

[curtrambus]

Bears better block or this games a wrap. They get ball at half and the defense is looking good. Only TD they gave up was a unreal fake fg. The reason I took them straight up was all about the value. I consider them to be a better team this year with the WR's but if Cutler doesn't have time it's all for not.

[curtrambus]

Well that sucks. Can't win them all. Surprised how good the Pack D looked. Surprised how bad the Bears O looked.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Bears offensive line was horseshit tonight. Their defense couldn't get Rodgers off the field either.

USF still being USF. Mistake after mistake after mistake. Thursday night football sucks

[alabasterf]

Thursday night football truly is cursed!