SB and Friends. Thread.

[Smutbucket]

Week 11. NCAAF Card


11/8/12
FSU -13.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit


11/10/12
Texas AM +14.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Penn State +7.5 (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units
Penn State ML (+240) Risking .5 units to win 1.2 units
Penn State +4.5 (+100) 1st Half. Risking .5 units to win .5 units
Washington State +15.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Michigan Team Total Under 31 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Rutgers -17 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Tennessee -2.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 unit
Iowa St +10.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Iowa St ML (+310) Risking .5 units to win 1.55 units
Utah -1.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit


Lets get it!

following Biff on the team total, didnt have as much time to look at entire card this week but like these games a lot. anyone see an edge in anything? joco what you got tmrw?

[QUOTE=Smutbucket;16722084]Adding.
Oregon State +3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
LSU -15 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit[/QUOTE]

5-9 -3.9 units

..... .... sigh

[Smutbucket]

NFL Card

11/11/12
2 team 6 pt Teaser. Texans +7.5 and Steelers -6.5.Risking 2.2 units to win 2 unit
Texans +1.5. (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Vikings +4 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Saints +3 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 unit
2 Team Parlay Broncos ML (-220) and Dolphins ML (-260) (+100) Risking 1.5 unit to win 1.5 units
Baltimore -7 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Jets +6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

[joco]

i havnt been home in days. didnt get to give my input yesterday. had some tough loses. tennessee ml...iowa ml...won with kent st -6, miami +1.5, usc -9. dont think i had any other plays...my account says i was up 6$ yesterday lol.

anyway nfl...

im on eagles +2, saints +3, bears ml, 3 team teaser i put in earlier in the week pats -.5, 49ers -.5 and baltimore +2. ill let u know if i take anything else

[Smutbucket]

eagles and bears joco?! bah.....wouldnt touch the eagles right now.....and I can confidently tell you the bears gonna get spanked tonight.....badly.....HOU wins by 17+......but maybe Im wrong, but I dont think I am.....

[Smutbucket]

NFL Card

11/11/12
2 team 6 pt Teaser. Texans +7.5 and Steelers -6.5.Risking 2.2 units to win 2 unit - Pending
Texans +1.5. (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Vikings +4 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Saints +3 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 unit
2 Team Parlay Broncos ML (-220) and Dolphins ML (-260) (+100) Risking 1.5 unit to win 1.5 units
Baltimore -7 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Jets +6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

4-2 . +1.4 units .....1 teaser pending......

freaking seattle continues to fuk with me.....

[joco]

i honestly think my bears and eagles plays would have won if both qbs hadnt left the game in the 2nd quarter...but i ended up gettin hit this weekend unfortunately

[Smutbucket]

vick didnt even get hurt. did u see his supposed concussion? vicks just a bitch who crumbles under pressure, some people thrive, he crumbles, to the point where he doesnt even want to compete and comes out of the game, he wanted foles to go in and show the world that it wasnt him thats wrong with the team but the team, he wanted to see foles do terrible, even worse than vick.....you think bears woulda won if cutler stayed in? you see how hard they were getting hit by houston?....I think texans woulda won by 17+ pts like I projected if It wasnt raining,....but saying all these things are meaningless, and actually hurt handicappers instead of helping them, atleast from my experience, my opinion of the bears? = OVER-RATED. cutlers a bitch and isnt good enough to take a team to the superbowl....he thrived in 1 playoff game in 2010 against a TERRIBLE SEATTLE TEAM, a team who gave up 4000 yards passing thru season and 31 TDs and only got 11 INTs, ranked 25th in team def in pts allowed, good for you cutler, but you ABSOLUTELY SHIT the bed in the packers playoff game right after, I remeber it well, HE IS TERRIBLE. Dont ride that train....its a bad one, tillmans a stud but theres only so much one player on defense can do....media loves them though, go figure....

[joco]

clearly with cutler out the texans still only won by 6...if cutler had played the bears could have possibly won the game...there is no question in my mind. weather effected both teams equally...

[Smutbucket]

cutler will do well against the bad defenses in the league like the titans, but always proves to struggle against any half way decent defense that can apply a decent amount of pressure on a qb, again he is another terrible qb in this "pressure factor" I think I give more weight to than most.....handling pressure is a part of football, some QBs just start making poor throws under pressure, from what Ive seen of cutler, he does that a lot, although it was worse than usual in this game, b/c of weather.....

[Smutbucket]

small little hedge for my bet in these factors Im a little nervous so

Adding.
KC +7 (+100) 2nd Half. Risking .5 units to win .5 units

[Smutbucket]

ya....welll.....pretty obvious woulda covered that bet if rothlesburger was playing that 2nd half

freaking shoulda hedged for more so I woulda had atleast a positive NFL weekend....ARGH!

[Smutbucket]

week 11 ncaaf : 5-9 -3.9 units

week 10 nfl : 5-3 -.3 units


Thread Total YTD:
96-71-7
+21.06 units


Due for a big weekend, lets crush it fellas, any games catch anyones eyes? im gonna bring up a couple leans early this week once I look at card, just so if anyone has any 2 cents they wanna chime in on a certain play! lets bury the books this weekend fellas! together! I need your input for optimum pick selection! joco, chime in early, gimme ur picks early so If I dont like a side I can go lay off instead of hedging.....

[Smutbucket]

call me a sucker but Im buying.....this thursday night action


11/13/12
Miami +2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit


homerism involved. also a hatred for that bills team, I only have respect for spiller and thats it, everyone else on that team blows. also since its thursday night and due to my addictive behavior I need to make a bet, but if I dont bet than I will have to go out a take some pills to feed my addictive habits so this is the healthier alternative

[Smutbucket]

Here We Go......

Week 12 NCAAF Card.
6 pt Teaser. Mich St. -.5 and Miss. St. -.5 Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
NC State +17 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Oklahoma -11 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 unit
Kansas St -12 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Stanford +21.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

[Smutbucket]

Adding.
UNC -4 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units

[colts]

NFL chalks looks good to me. LEANS: Cin -3.5, obviously 3 would be better. KC is on a short week and played Pitt into OT. Saints -4.5 against the Raiders. Saints playing like they want to make the playoffs. Denver/SD ov 48.5. SD has a horrible D. Balt -3.5, again with the hook. Pitt lost Big Ben. Leftwich is horrid. Pack -3.5 (hook again). Can't back the Lions. Would buy the hook in all three if I bet them.

[Smutbucket]

Agreed about some of chalk. I wouldnt take cinn though, If anything Id take KC or nothing, think KC gonna start to turn a corner and not be as bad as their record appears, their offensive line has picked up last couple games, and with a RB like jamal charles, you can really get some offensive production....defense needs to step up, they played well in the pitt game of course was with rothlisburger out half game and rainy conditions so we'll see if It translates to next week......more I look into depth of this game the more I think Im gonna take KC....Saints -4.5 a little worried about, dunno why, think they win but scared of cover, but def agree brees and them saints are going for a playoff run.........think over is solid in this one too.....dont think Im gonna touch the sd/den total.....only playing very few totals if I REALLY REALLY like them....if leftwich is in Ill definately be on the ravens....already got my packers circled as a winner......Good input colts, lets get em this weekend!

[joco]

NFL chalks looks good to me. LEANS: Cin -3.5, obviously 3 would be better. KC is on a short week and played Pitt into OT. Saints -4.5 against the Raiders. Saints playing like they want to make the playoffs. Denver/SD ov 48.5. SD has a horrible D. Balt -3.5, again with the hook. Pitt lost Big Ben. Leftwich is horrid. Pack -3.5 (hook again). Can't back the Lions. Would buy the hook in all three if I bet them.

funny thing is all are road favs which i try to stay away from but i have every one of ur picks circled on my sheet

[joco]

and dan i briefly looked at the lines...i circled fiu +1.5, unc -3.5, cmu -3.5, usc -3.5, ul monroe -10, mizzou -4.5 and tulane +9.5...im tryin to figure out the deal with this duke line...do they have injuries or something cuz 13 is waaaay too many points

[Smutbucket]

ergh joco u always like the games I have no real edge in....most games Im picking Ive watched the teams a couple times and think I know a little bit bout their playstyle. very rarely I pick games just off numbers anymore I find Im hitting much higher % if I seen the team in action atleast fora couple drives on offense/defense, but Im gonna look at those games later tonight and see if I can find an edge in any/agree with you....

....glad you agree with unc lets get it! think uva crashes tmrw night....not as good as theyve played last 2 weeks....

[Smutbucket]

Adding.
Ohio State +3 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 unit

[colts]

Smut & Joco - nice hit with NC. UVA couldn't keep up their high level of play.

[joco]

Smut & Joco - nice hit with NC. UVA couldn't keep up their high level of play.

thanks colts. checkin out these games today again. i liked fiu at first glance. livin in south florida i could never play fau...what do u think dan

[suicidekings]

I'm really feeling the ML parlay option this week. I'm actually planning on making a pretty big play on Georges St Pierre in UFC, and looking to improve on the -325 price by parlaying it with a few NCAAF MLs.

1. Nebraska* -1200 vs Minnesota U
2. Clemson* -720 vs NC State
3. Penn State* -1000 vs Indiana
4. Kansas State* -465 vs Baylor
5. Notre Dame* -2000 vs Wake Forest
6. Oregon* -1250 vs Stanford
7. Oregon State* -620 vs California
8. Michigan* -750 vs Iowa
9. LSU* -1100 vs Mississippi

Collectively, these teams are at +168, and that gives me +251 on GSP. I'm looking down the list and I can't see how any of these teams lose on Saturday, with all of them completely outclassing their opponents and several of them needing the win badly to stay in contention / lock up their conference.

Does anyone have any concerns with any of these teams?

[Smutbucket]

joco, ugh...no lean really, maybe under? I just dont watch either of those teams ever,

sk, all those look good, Id be a little concerned with clemson and oregon....you can obviously see I picked opposite sides with the pts. honestly was considering putting half unit on each of the MLs in those games too but Ive struggled last 2 weeks so Im playing more conservatively, think both games will be much closer than their spreads suggest, and wouldnt surprise me if one of them upsets, chip kelly being overhyped IMO, I dunno though maybe its just my hatred for the pac12 talking.....nc state has continually under performed this season than I expected, nc state can easily put up a fight if they get a run game going, all the games their offense struggled they had no push at the line and abandoned the run early leaving a lot of pressure on glennon where he threw lotta picks like in virginia game I watched a bit....good luck to ya SK, you backin ohio state too makes it A LOT easier for me to pull the trigger

[TheBetBuysDanK]

be careful with the Ohio state play fellas. I know Wisky has been over rated all year, and the O-line coming together for a 500 yard rush outing against IU doesnt speak too much, BUT.... Camp Randall has been a tough place for other B10 teams to go Win at. Also, IMO ohio st has been one of the, if not THE most over rated teams in NCAA this year. They legitimatly could have 4 losses at this point, 1 against Purdue who is god awful this year. Hell, the Illini even hung in with them, and most other schools in the overall down B10 have smashed that squad. Not to mention Ohio state is soft at MLB this season, so if wisky can keep that run attack rolling, OSU might be in trouble.

[suicidekings]

joco, ugh...no lean really, maybe under? I just dont watch either of those teams ever,

sk, all those look good, Id be a little concerned with clemson and oregon....you can obviously see I picked opposite sides with the pts. honestly was considering putting half unit on each of the MLs in those games too but Ive struggled last 2 weeks so Im playing more conservatively, think both games will be much closer than their spreads suggest, and wouldnt surprise me if one of them upsets, chip kelly being overhyped IMO, I dunno though maybe its just my hatred for the pac12 talking.....nc state has continually under performed this season than I expected, nc state can easily put up a fight if they get a run game going, all the games their offense struggled they had no push at the line and abandoned the run early leaving a lot of pressure on glennon where he threw lotta picks like in virginia game I watched a bit....good luck to ya SK, you backin ohio state too makes it A LOT easier for me to pull the trigger

I hear you on Oregon. I can't believe Stanford is getting so little respect in terms of the spread, and I've definitely profited all year on Stanford being undervalued. The decisive factor for me on Oregon is that two years ago they came within a FG of the National Title, getting beaten by the Cam Newton Auburn freight train and last year they overcame a dominant Andrew Luck led Stanford team only to suffer a letdown the next week against USC by a margin of a FG, ending any hope they had for a shot at the NC. I think two years of disappointment are a great motivating tool and while Stanford could cover the +21.5, it would take a pretty spectacular series of errors on the Ducks part to let this game slip away.

Clemson is probably the most motivated team on the list this weekend as their situation is the toughest. They need to go 2-0 to finish the year to even have a chance at the ACC Atlantic. FSU can lose to the Gators and still take the title with the tiebreak over Clemson if the Tigers can't overcome SC. Clemson has no margin for error. Last year, defense was Clemson's problem and this year. they've been better, if not amazing. I think ultimately, NC State's inefficiency in their offense will not allow them to hang with Clemson in this game. It's really tough to imagine Clemson putting up less than 31 points in this game. I don't know about the spread though. That will depend on Glennon exceeding expectations. Among the top 30 FBS QBs, Glennon has one of the lowest completion rates, and only manages 7.0 ypa. His total yardage is heavily skewed by the fact that NC State can't run the ball so they pass a lot. Clemson is actually better than average at preventing 1st downs passing. Their only loss this year came at the hands of EJ Manuel and 5 FSU rushing TDs.

As for Ohio State, they're definitely my favourite play of the week. I think the line is a joke. Good to see you on them as well.

[joco]

I'm really feeling the ML parlay option this week. I'm actually planning on making a pretty big play on Georges St Pierre in UFC, and looking to improve on the -325 price by parlaying it with a few NCAAF MLs.

1. Nebraska* -1200 vs Minnesota U
2. Clemson* -720 vs NC State
3. Penn State* -1000 vs Indiana
4. Kansas State* -465 vs Baylor
5. Notre Dame* -2000 vs Wake Forest
6. Oregon* -1250 vs Stanford
7. Oregon State* -620 vs California
8. Michigan* -750 vs Iowa
9. LSU* -1100 vs Mississippi

Collectively, these teams are at +168, and that gives me +251 on GSP. I'm looking down the list and I can't see how any of these teams lose on Saturday, with all of them completely outclassing their opponents and several of them needing the win badly to stay in contention / lock up their conference.

Does anyone have any concerns with any of these teams?

gsp worries me. hes coming off back to back injuries and hasnt fought in a year in a half. he might be the g.o.a.t in his weight class but hes gotta be rusty. i might only play condit for + money just to have some action on the fight. cant wait to see it tomoro. bol suicide kings

[joco]

and dan i briefly looked at the lines...i circled fiu +1.5, unc -3.5, cmu -3.5, usc -3.5, ul monroe -10, mizzou -4.5 and tulane +9.5...im tryin to figure out the deal with this duke line...do they have injuries or something cuz 13 is waaaay too many points

won with fiu last night also...good way to start with college ball...im officially putting in my plays as we speak dan...

ul monroe -10
ul lafayette -4
cmu -4
the u -6
vandy -3
mizzou -5
duke/g tech over 66

im considering playing san jose or the under in that game later and maybe middle tennessee. we will see how the other games go. what u got dan

[Smutbucket]

This is All for right now....no additions yet


Week 12 NCAAF Card.
6 pt Teaser. Mich St. -.5 and Miss. St. -.5 Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
NC State +17 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Oklahoma -11 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 unit
Kansas St -12 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Stanford +21.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
UNC -4 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units
Ohio State +3 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 unit

[suicidekings]

gsp worries me. hes coming off back to back injuries and hasnt fought in a year in a half. he might be the g.o.a.t in his weight class but hes gotta be rusty. i might only play condit for + money just to have some action on the fight. cant wait to see it tomoro. bol suicide kings

In terms of fighting style, this is a really bad matchup for Condit. His takedown defense is inferior, and GSP will be able to put him on the ground at any point in the fight with relative ease. He also has weak legs, with little ability to attack with leg kicks while GSP should be able to attack Condit's legs early and often. In terms of striking, GSP is definitely better but not by a huge margin.

GSP hasn't been in the ring in 18 months, true. However Condit's last fight was ~10 months ago, and the way he won that fight will NOT be effective in this one. He ran away from Diaz for 5 rounds and got the decision. I don't have all that much respect for Condit's resume. I think he was fortunate to have won against Rory MacDonald, and Hardy & Kim are dead weight.

GSP has made it really clear that he intends to leave no doubt in this fight that he's 100% back. Whether it's by decision, or TKO, GSP will win this fight.

[suicidekings]

Playing UCLA on the ML (+173) x2. USC doesn't deserve to be favoured by this much here. They're arguably the most disappointing team of the year in the FBS, despite all the Barkley hype. The UCLA fan base has been waiting for this game all year, and I think the Bruins exact some revenge for the beat-down they took last year.

[Smutbucket]

looking nice on ucla sk, wish I was on that one

hate to sound like a sore loser but anyone see this mich st./northwestern game? something must be wrong with my TV cuz I see Leveon bell with ball in endzone before his knee is down on 2nd down in 2nd qtr, and they review and they say no TD, and end up getting stopped, frustrating losses, especially when team dominates them like they did,

[No coincidences]

looking nice on ucla sk, wish I was on that one

hate to sound like a sore loser but anyone see this mich st./northwestern game? something must be wrong with my TV cuz I see Leveon bell with ball in endzone before his knee is down on 2nd down in 2nd qtr, and they review and they say no TD, and end up getting stopped, frustrating losses, especially when team dominates them like they did,

A bunch of horseshit calls against MSU today. Again.

[suicidekings]

A bunch of horseshit calls against MSU today. Again.

I expected a close game, with the Spartans coming out with the win by a FG. I was sweating my U43.5 a lot in the second half after the quick start...