SB and Friends. Thread.

[Smutbucket]

Adding.
Redskins -3.5 (2nd half) (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units

[Smutbucket]

Adding.
Tampa Bay +1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

[Smutbucket]

Adding.
Dallas +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

[Smutbucket]

its official joco....we going head 2 head in a lot of these games.........atleast one of us will win! cant go against these matchups Im seeing....

11/4/12
Dolphins ML (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 unit
Vikings +4.5 (-105) Risking 1.57 units to win 1.5 units
Car/Wash Over 50 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
2 Team Parlay. Denver and Chicago (+125). Risking 2 units to win 2.5 units
Steelers +3 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Adding.
Packers -10 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 unit

Adding.
Redskins -3.5 (2nd half) (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units

Adding.
Tampa Bay +1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

Adding.
Dallas +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

4-5 -.12 units

im officially done betting totals, I think I should be +10-15 units higher If I didnt bet totals

[Smutbucket]

Thread Total YTD:
86-59-7
+25.26 units


week 10 NCAAF: 6-4 +.3 units


week 9 NFL: 4-5 -.12 units

[suicidekings]

4-5 -.12 units

im officially done betting totals, I think I should be +10-15 units higher If I didnt bet totals

I'm remarkably bad at totals... I pretty much just include them in small same-game teasers/parlays like Oregon-Over. Seems pretty common for people to really intuitively understand one but not the other.

[suicidekings]

Next week, I like Louisville to win at Syracuse, and I'm having a really hard time not playing Texas A&M +14 for a decent amount. HUGE spot for Alabama to let down a bit after beating LSU in Death Valley and the Aggies have been getting better and better every week. The Aggies still have the reputation of being a Big 12 team that's a step below in the minds of SEC fans, but losing to Florida and LSU by 5 & 3 points is very respectable. It's Week 11 and the market still doesn't give them the respect they deserve.

[joco]

I agree. I lost my teaser cuz of the wash-carolina total. Skins getting stopped in the redzone killed me

[Smutbucket]

Damn, didnt even look at lines yet, but ya I loved what I saw from texas a&m in 2 games I watched them, johny manziel is something else, would be a fun game to watch, Im just scared to bet against lacy/yeldon...

but for +14 Ill take the gamble...which way you think books will move the lines? i might lock in +14 just cuz its a nice number and buy the hook

havent really watched louisville at all this year, this year been focusing on few teams Ive seen more of b/c stats can be deceptive....

[Smutbucket]

Yo fellas whatup! life is great...all settled in my new crib. loving it. one of my new roommates big football fan who knows a lot of shit that I dont know, always good to have someone to toss ideas/thoughts off of, something I didnt have at my last house.....

this what I got so far....

Week 11. NCAAF Card

11/8/12
FSU -13.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

11/10/12
Texas AM +14.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Penn State +7.5 (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units
Penn State ML (+240) Risking .5 units to win 1.2 units
Washington State +15.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

[Smutbucket]

Sail......

[RG3ING]

I'm on Noles an ark st both should be monnnneeeyyy an I'm on clippers over an okc -2.5

[lyon804]

In respect to the A&M game against Bama I initially leaned A&M as well for many reason's. Let me throw this out there. When Manziel and company have played real defenses (LSU and Florida) they scored a combined 36 pts. Which isn't horrible, but if you look closer only 7 total pts were scored combined in the 2H against both of those defenses and that offensive futility happened at home. So does it take a half to get use to Manziel's tendencies and the speed he plays with? Or is it not having the proper game plan coming into the game? The Florida game was the first game of the year before anybody really knew about Manziel and he and his team scored 17pts against Florida,but was completely shutout the 2H. Against LSU they scored a total of 19 pts with 9 of them coming quicky in the 1Q and settled for only 7 pts in the 2H with that TD coming losing 24-12 and it came with only 1 minute remaining in the game so you have to question the effort on LSU's part with the game basically over. I know Saban and Smart have watched how those defenses have stopped Manziel. You must keep outside contain and spy him with the LB and if you do that and make him one dimensional and he can't pick up 3rd downs running he no longer is Johnny Football. He is just another pretty decent QB in the league. I take nothing away from him, he is awesome and if he breaks contain and bounces it to the outside it will be a nightmare for Alabama trying to tackle him. My guess is Alabama keeps contain and makes him a pocket passer that gets sacked when he wants to run at the last minute. My guess is if Florida and LSU could figure him out on the road in he 2H than Alabama can as well because there defense is every bit as good as those 2 defenses plus this is on the road in a pretty tough environment for the young QB.


If you like Alabama scoring 30+ pts on A&M then I feel this is a bad bet because AM only mustered 17 and 19 at home against the 2 real defenses they saw. My guess is they score less than that on the road to Alabama. I know Alabama had an emotional win and this could be a letdown spot, but remember who there coach is. They know what is at stake here and A&M will not be taken lightly. Alabama, mentally because of Saban are like a NFL team. They have already spit on last week and are looking at the only regular season opponent that could derail there goals. This is the last real regular season game for Alabama and they did not get past last weeks ordeal to piss it away to johnny football at home. I look for it to be a blowout in the 2H. Best to take A&M 1H if you like them. I will wait to make a play on 2H taking Alabama if it is somewhat close, which would be 2 Td's our less.

[Smutbucket]

I'm on Noles an ark st both should be monnnneeeyyy an I'm on clippers over an okc -2.5

lets get it......Im done with nba til playoffs, I dont follow at all but always seem to find losers to tail, go figure......nfl/ncaaf 4 life....

[Smutbucket]

In respect to the A&M game against Bama I initially leaned A&M as well for many reason's. Let me throw this out there. When Manziel and company have played real defenses (LSU and Florida) they scored a combined 36 pts. Which isn't horrible, but if you look closer only 7 total pts were scored combined in the 2H against both of those defenses and that offensive futility happened at home. So does it take a half to get use to Manziel's tendencies and the speed he plays with? Or is it not having the proper game plan coming into the game? The Florida game was the first game of the year before anybody really knew about Manziel and he and his team scored 17pts against Florida,but was completely shutout the 2H. Against LSU they scored a total of 19 pts with 9 of them coming quicky in the 1Q and settled for only 7 pts in the 2H with that TD coming losing 24-12 and it came with only 1 minute remaining in the game so you have to question the effort on LSU's part with the game basically over. I know Saban and Smart have watched how those defenses have stopped Manziel. You must keep outside contain and spy him with the LB and if you do that and make him one dimensional and he can't pick up 3rd downs running he no longer is Johnny Football. He is just another pretty decent QB in the league. I take nothing away from him, he is awesome and if he breaks contain and bounces it to the outside it will be a nightmare for Alabama trying to tackle him. My guess is Alabama keeps contain and makes him a pocket passer that gets sacked when he wants to run at the last minute. My guess is if Florida and LSU could figure him out on the road in he 2H than Alabama can as well because there defense is every bit as good as those 2 defenses plus this is on the road in a pretty tough environment for the young QB.


If you like Alabama scoring 30+ pts on A&M then I feel this is a bad bet because AM only mustered 17 and 19 at home against the 2 real defenses they saw. My guess is they score less than that on the road to Alabama. I know Alabama had an emotional win and this could be a letdown spot, but remember who there coach is. They know what is at stake here and A&M will not be taken lightly. Alabama, mentally because of Saban are like a NFL team. They have already spit on last week and are looking at the only regular season opponent that could derail there goals. This is the last real regular season game for Alabama and they did not get past last weeks ordeal to piss it away to johnny football at home. I look for it to be a blowout in the 2H. Best to take A&M 1H if you like them. I will wait to make a play on 2H taking Alabama if it is somewhat close, which would be 2 Td's our less.

ya, good point about 1st half, Texas AM is much better 1st half team to bet on, but I still like them in the game, dont think your giving manziel enough credit, I dont think the 2nd half of the florida game/lsu game were entirely due to defenses "figuring them out" atleast in LSU I watched, didnt see the florida game at all, but against LSU couple bad breaks, like INT hitting receiver square in the chest and bouncing off into LSUs hands, and fumbles, stealing all the momentum in the game, even as a pocket passer I like em, hes not only smart but accurate too, and he can break contain A LOT better than any QB Ive ever seen with his johnny football magic, he seems to be able to keep his eyes down the field as well better than most mobile QBs, to me he has all the tools he needs to be a top college QB, be very interesting to see if bama can handle em, especially since they havent seen a mobile qb since denard in week 1 but we all know denard is a joke, and cant even be compared to manziel at all, I think it'll be somewhere around 17-27 game, bama wins...

[Smutbucket]

thanks for the input lyon. love hearing opposing arguments to any of my picks

[2daBank]

like vols to get 1st sec win this week, actually just like fading mizzou but whatever..

like fading illini too, so min it is..

beavers and the points seems good...

cant believe you going against bama, i cant do it, prob wont play it besides have them in a ml parlay but A&M typically gets plastered in the 2nd half of gms like this,,maybe the fact lsu physically pounded bama last week will help your cause but i dunno, think that very good, very efficient offense will keep johnny fukkstick off the field most the gm...

[lyon804]

thanks for the input lyon. love hearing opposing arguments to any of my picks

You might be right and I could be wrong obviously. I just don't want people to put to much into the "emotional" game angle which tend to be overrated in my book. LSU made Alabama look human but that was the most yards given up by Alabama since 2007 which was Saban's first year at Alabama. I watched that game closely and rewatched it. That was just damn good offense on LSU's part. Mettenberger stood up to the pressure, made all the right reads and delivered the ball on the money. He played like a 1R draft pick, he played his ass off. Some of those throws were pro caliber and right on the money against well defended recievers. As poorly as Mettenberger had been the light came on for whatever reason and he played up to the hype about him coming in to the season. There was alot of energy in that stadium and he was hot and not afraid of the moment or the pressure when delivering the ball. It takes a HOT QB to beat Alabama and Mettenberger was defintely on his game. The argument can easily be made that Manziel is better than Mettenberger, but there is no way imo he plays to the standard Mettenberger played against Alabama in his first real road game. There will be over 100,000 in that stadium. Johnny football gonna have to be lights out for A&M to cover because I don't think there defense will fare well in this game.

[Smutbucket]

100% agree with you on "emotional" angle. every game is "emotional" the key is to learning to control them and executing plays regardless. Yes LSU offense in the matchup was superb, mettenbeterger looked freaking amazing, I was surprised as hell, in Florida game he was overthrowing EVERYTHING, I definately am a LSU believer now which I wasnt earlier in the season/before this game....I think working to the advantage of my pick is the different look bama will be seeing in texas A&Ms spread offense, basically gonna come down to if texas AM can execute its offense efficiently and if they are athletically tough enough to break the open field tackles/get some separation with their speed. gonna be interesting because Its completely different than LSUs offense for the most part. Seeing how bama handles this type-a offense might be a good indicator of things to come to if bama ends up playing oregon in the finals, I think Im just a manziel lover whos making me want to take this pick. Im a handicapper 2nd and avid football fan first, you'll notice I almost ALWAYS have money on the BIG GAMES/tough matchups. which most handicappers disagree with/dont like to do, but their is no better feeling in the world than sitting back on saturday afternoon watching some of the best college football teams go at it with a little bit of money involved, I cant help it.....you'll very rarely see me take the MAC/USA/PAC12 games....Im more of a SEC/B1G guy, which you probably all noticed from my selections are almost always in these conf. matchups....good luck to you this weekend lyon, lets bury the books, I havent really got started on my capping yet, gonna dig deep late tonight......

[Smutbucket]

like vols to get 1st sec win this week, actually just like fading mizzou but whatever..

like fading illini too, so min it is..

beavers and the points seems good...

cant believe you going against bama, i cant do it, prob wont play it besides have them in a ml parlay but A&M typically gets plastered in the 2nd half of gms like this,,maybe the fact lsu physically pounded bama last week will help your cause but i dunno, think that very good, very efficient offense will keep johnny fukkstick off the field most the gm...

ya Im thinking same thing about vols and beavers,

illi /minn....ehh...no idea....pissed I ended up taking minn last second in last wks matchup cuz robbinson was declared out, thought we were gonna see Bellomy who was terrible when he came in relief for denard in game before, apparently they had some other backup I didnt know about.....

i know, I cant believe I am going against bama either, Ive been the biggest bama tout all season, I love them, but I feel obligated to take a side on this one since I will be staring 3 ft from the TV watching avidly, (ha jk) and I think part of me wants to see manziel excel, (maybe cuz hes white? lol jk) from what Ive seen of him, he looks 100% better than EVERY OVERRATED B1G QB.....so....I want to see a lil backyard football QB who can not only evade tackles and make plays with his legs, but be smart, find the open recievers, and make ACCURATE throws, I dont think Ive ever seen a player capable of that before.....lol

[Smutbucket]

Week 11. NCAAF Card


11/8/12
FSU -13.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit


11/10/12
Texas AM +14.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Penn State +7.5 (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units
Penn State ML (+240) Risking .5 units to win 1.2 units
Penn State +4.5 (+100) 1st Half. Risking .5 units to win .5 units
Washington State +15.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Michigan Team Total Under 31 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Rutgers -17 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Tennessee -2.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 unit
Iowa St +10.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Iowa St ML (+310) Risking .5 units to win 1.55 units
Utah -1.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit


Lets get it!

following Biff on the team total, didnt have as much time to look at entire card this week but like these games a lot. anyone see an edge in anything? joco what you got tmrw?

[Smutbucket]

Adding.
Oregon State +3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
LSU -15 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

[suicidekings]

I can't stop thinking the Aggies pull off the upset of the year today...

[2daBank]

I can't stop thinking the Aggies pull off the upset of the year today...

good call,,,guess it was just a matter of time that putting bama in ml parlays would burn me, it has been like 2 years after all...

[Smutbucket]

I seem to always pick the games that are obviously rigged. I like to believe its cuz Im always on the sharp side ;-).....penn state just rediculous....I mean, called touchdown, dude obviously crossed goal line, then a ref behind the booth says it wasnt, what a freaking joke....not to mention michigan team total.....these bad beats drive me crazy, always a bad beat stopping me from having a huge day

[2daBank]

I seem to always pick the games that are obviously rigged. I like to believe its cuz Im always on the sharp side ;-).....penn state just rediculous....I mean, called touchdown, dude obviously crossed goal line, then a ref behind the booth says it wasnt, what a freaking joke....not to mention michigan team total.....these bad beats drive me crazy, always a bad beat stopping me from having a huge day

wtf happened in that mich gm? i checked my phone and NW had ball up 31-28 with like a minute left,,,figured it was in the bag, look back and they in fukkin ot..

[bane]

good call,,,guess it was just a matter of time that putting bama in ml parlays would burn me, it has been like 2 years after all...

I just started this season but.... RIP ML parlay streak.

[Smutbucket]

I can't stop thinking the Aggies pull off the upset of the year today...

very nice call ....what was the ML ? i didnt even look at it

[Smutbucket]

wtf happened in that mich gm? i checked my phone and NW had ball up 31-28 with like a minute left,,,figured it was in the bag, look back and they in fukkin ot..

mich got ball back with 30 seconds left, threw a 50 yard pass, where defender just had to let ball go over his head instead he batted it up in the air for an easy catch for michigan reciever.....down to 10 yard line....FG to make total 31....

[2daBank]

mich got ball back with 30 seconds left, threw a 50 yard pass, where defender just had to let ball go over his head instead he batted it up in the air for an easy catch for michigan reciever.....down to 10 yard line....FG to make total 31....

awesome...almost beats vols pissing away gm where they dominated most of it.. or uva going for 2 with 4 seconds left and only winning by 1 when i had -1.5....today been a real kick in the nuts....at least fading illini worked out and beavers covered (see you got shitty number on them so that sux)..

[Smutbucket]

ya today was a real kick in the nuts....I dunno why I ever take 3.5.....buying to 4 is so valuable....

[suicidekings]

very nice call ....what was the ML ? i didnt even look at it

I got it at +408, then a little more live at +226

[Smutbucket]

jeeez! I wanna take BC soooo bad! 20 pts for this notre dame team? its sooo tempting....Im gonna stay away....BC just too damn bad

[lyon804]

Sb, awesome call on Tex am today. I missed it bad but you had it by a mile. Licking my wounds.....

[lyon804]

Tex am continued exposing the flaws that lsu did. I know bamas defense has been exposed lately but it seems the offense struggled lately as well due to feeling pressure of needing to score. Aj mccarren couldnt survive another He looked indecisive like he was caught in between.