clemson vs wake early thoughts

[Dbldown11]

my main reasoning behind my clemson play is this:

Wake Forest does not have a very good offense. Now with the exception of the Alabama game Clemson has not given up more than 20 points. Clemson will be able to hold Wake to few points. Now Clemson has an offense that will run the ball up and down the field against Wake in my opinion. I just dont see Wake being able to move the ball well against a stout Clemson defense.

[rab5705]

I have been trolling these forums for quite some time now. There are a lot of good cappers on here. Many thanks to all who have provided some great angles.

Clemson normally plays well off a bye. They have had Wake's # straight up in 3 of the last 4 meetings. Clemson lays down if another team "hits them in the mouth" however. Personally from what I have seen Wake does not have that type of D. Look for Clemson to put up atleast 4 TD's and Wake to not be far behind (If at all). Riley Skinner is more than capable of keeping this close and potentially pulling out the win for Wake.

I normally play the under or stay away from totals in week night tilts, but I am going to have to say that Over 44 is the best bet here.

[Dbldown11]

Is this game even gonna be on t.v.?????Im not seeing it listed on ESPN or ESPN 2, thats gonna suck if I can't even watch this game

[rab5705]

Its the regular Thursday Night Tilit on ESPN

[TPowell]

btw, trends are def. against Clemson though

Clemson is 0-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
WF is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3

Clemson is 4-10 ATS when playing an opponent with a winning record
WF is 11-3 ATS when playing an opponent with a winning record

Clemson is 8-10 ATS when playing conference opponents
WF is 12-6 ATS when playing conference opponents

Clemson is 1-3 ATS after a bye week

WF is 19-11 ATS in all games (past 3 years)
Clemson is 12-16 ATS in all games (past 3 years)

Clemson is 2-4 ATS coming off a loss to a conference opponent

WF is 5-2 ATS when playing on a Thursday

WF is 4-0 SU coming off a bye week
Clemson is 1-3 SU coming off a bye week

[Dbldown11]

btw, trends are def. against Clemson though

Clemson is 0-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
WF is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3

Clemson is 4-10 ATS when playing an opponent with a winning record
WF is 11-3 ATS when playing an opponent with a winning record

Clemson is 8-10 ATS when playing conference opponents
WF is 12-6 ATS when playing conference opponents

Clemson is 1-3 ATS after a bye week

WF is 19-11 ATS in all games (past 3 years)
Clemson is 12-16 ATS in all games (past 3 years)

Clemson is 2-4 ATS coming off a loss to a conference opponent

WF is 5-2 ATS when playing on a Thursday

WF is 4-0 SU coming off a bye week
Clemson is 1-3 SU coming off a bye week

I hate those ridiculous trends! ESPN.com doesnt have the game listed as being broadcast on ESPN but I hope it is

[firedawg]

clemson is so undisciplined and poorly coached. i just cant back them anymore

[TPowell]

I know trends aren't the be-all end-all when it comes to sports, but ALL OF THOSE??? You're foolish to ignore all of the trends that are going against Clemson and that are going FOR Wake Forest. Plus, Clemson is a joke with its terrible coaching

[Dbldown11]

The problem with those ATS "trends" is that It is not saying what those spreads were. or when they are from. ATS "trends" can be scewed to favor any team you want in any game. You can find trends that would make any team and any given moment appear to be the right choice. That is why I NEVER looke at those when capping games. It's just like any other statistic, very easily scewed to prove whatever point you want to prove

[etothep]

Let's just not post blindly in here in hopes of not getting called out, please.

Clemson normally plays well off a bye.

Since '02, they've had a losing record coming off byes (1-2 in conference games), including losing at home to SC in a rivalry game. The advantage most teams have coming off a bye is that their coaching staff can plan & scheme to come up with a solid gameplan against their next opponent, something I wouldn't put a lot of stock into little bowden being able to do.

And more importantly, in how many of those games was Bowden's job hanging in the balance?

tammy bowden is perenially on the hot-seat


As I said, I'm on Wake in this one, and more power to those hopping on Clemson, but don't delude yourself into thinking they have anything that resembles an advantage when it comes to coaching. Clemson has played 3 teams with better coaches this year (giving tammy the nod over Citadel's & SC State's coaches) & they're 1-2, 0-3 ATS. The lone win came at home to an inexperienced NC State club riddled with injuries. Could Clemson beat Wake? Sure. But, its cause they have better athletes, not because bowden led them to a W.

[rab5705]

Not posting blindly, Clemson averages just shy of 30 pts a game off a bye while in turn giving up just shy of 26 over those games since '02. Suppose I should be a little more clear on posting my opinion.

I did not pick Clemson to win this game, I suggested a play on the total.

[SR]

ATS spreads mean absolutly nothing. The vegas spreads are for bettors, not a real statistic of the sport. They make that number to get action on the sides. Someone explain why they think that matters without just saying that it appears to be a trend.

Rush offense/defence, pass offence/defense, matchups, records, injuries etc those are statistics and info that are interesting when matching up two teams....

NOT whether or not a few years ago the Bookies got the number right or wrong.

That being said I can't make a decision on this game and a bet will just be two spice up my Thursday.

[themajormt]

this is like shooting fish in a barrel now that I think about it. Wake Forest SEEMS like the square play and that may put more money on Clemson. These teams aren't that different, talent wsie from what I see. The homefield advantage on a weeknight will be huge (as well the embarassment of losing to Navy)

Is it embarassment or are they just that bad they deserved to lose and will lose this game?

I like a small ML on Clemson... I think their very good defense along with their RB's will pull it out in the end...

[artie81]

TPowel that is exaclty what I have been saying!! You cant ignore trends when they are so heavily in one teams favor. But you have all these cappers who say they dont matter and that they were in the past. Well guess what the same schemes and coaches that were installing game plans were there in the past and they are here now in the present. So maybe its far to say Wake has Clemson's number, but keep ingnoring bold trends and you will continue to see your $$$ go down the tubes. Im not saying this is the only angle to use in capping but it plays a big part when the numbers are skewed heavily to one side. I will take my chances with an above 70% ATS clip with any team against another who have routinely played each other year after year.

[TPowell]

its just a plus IMO. Clemson on the road is always ugly

[Dbldown11]

TPowel that is exaclty what I have been saying!! You cant ignore trends when they are so heavily in one teams favor. But you have all these cappers who say they dont matter and that they were in the past. Well guess what the same schemes and coaches that were installing game plans were there in the past and they are here now in the present. So maybe its far to say Wake has Clemson's number, but keep ingnoring bold trends and you will continue to see your $$$ go down the tubes. Im not saying this is the only angle to use in capping but it plays a big part when the numbers are skewed heavily to one side. I will take my chances with an above 70% ATS clip with any team against another who have routinely played each other year after year.

THIS IS ALL JUST SO SO WRONG! Those "trends" are numbers someone came up with to explain why they though wake is the pick. The fact of the matter is that if I really wanted to and had the time or urge to do it I could come up with some ATS "trends" that will seem to show that Clemson is the pick. They can be scewed so easily and selectively picked. For every one of those ATS that you showed there will be one in Clemson's favor as well. The fact of the matter is those have absolutely nothing to do with this game.

Like I said what were the spreads in those games? I would bet that Clemson was favored by a lot in most of those games. What does that mean it means that the spread was just too high, not that Wake won the game straight up.

In tomorrows game Clemson is the dog. So they are not overly favored. Which means those "trends" dont matter because those are "trends" involving situations where Clemson was a heavy favorite.

[artie81]

Exactly its a plus. I liked Wake before I even looked at anything! The trends just made it that much more appealing, along with all the other stats out there. I just think its pretty foolish to totally ignore them. You look at any other professional cappers picks and they always give credit to past Ats records and trends that develop over the years.

[artie81]

Whether Clemson was heavily favored or not, arent we still betting with a point spread? So your saying if Wake was favored in the previous games it would matter? You know what there is no point in trying to explain I need as many people on the Clemson bandwagon so I can get a better line.

[Dbldown11]

Exactly its a plus. I liked Wake before I even looked at anything! The trends just made it that much more appealing, along with all the other stats out there. I just think its pretty foolish to totally ignore them. You look at any other professional cappers picks and they always give credit to past Ats records and trends that develop over the years.

"Proffessional Cappers" You're talking about Touts that sell their picks right???? If they are so good why do they need to sell their picks to the public? Why dont they just bet the games themselves?

[Dbldown11]

Whether Clemson was heavily favored or not, arent we still betting with a point spread? So your saying if Wake was favored in the previous games it would matter? You know what there is no point in trying to explain I need as many people on the Clemson bandwagon so I can get a better line.

I'm saying that if Wake was favored in those games those stats would be MORE relevant. But they werent favored in those games. That's why those "trends" are nothing but bullshit that touts will tell you to make you believe that they know what they are talking about. Continue capping with those ATS's. And there is a point in trying to explain.....The fact of the matter is just that you can't explain becuase I am right, and it's just a fact. It is a fact that those are screwed figures used to prove a point....and if you can't see that then you are someone who is going to be sold a bunch of BS in life

[artie81]

Clemson is the play here. Wake is not a top 25 team this year, and the fact that they still are ranked is going to keep people on them since it's a small line and they arent playing a ranked team.

Clemson has been a bit of a letdown this year, however they will win this game straight up. Waker will have a hard time stopping the clemson

This is your reason for taking Clemson. And when i say pro cappers i mean people who bet for a living.

[SR]

Exactly its a plus. I liked Wake before I even looked at anything! The trends just made it that much more appealing, along with all the other stats out there. I just think its pretty foolish to totally ignore them. You look at any other professional cappers picks and they always give credit to past Ats records and trends that develop over the years.

It is not a stat in terms of the sport, it has absolutely nothing to do with schemes, coaches or anything it is not a reflection of anything other than the ability of vegas to create a number that will place large amounts of money on both sides of it.

Lets say last year the line was clemson -11 and the score was

Clem 20
WF 10

Now WF is 1-0 ATS.

What does that have to do with schemes and coaches or anything football related. It only has to do with vegas number being beat.

You can run that scenario 1000 times and it has absolutely no effect on the number that vegas and the betters determine is the spread for this game, this year.

"Pro" cappers always use ATS to make the fools that pay for their picks feel like they are doing the right thing and that odds are in their favor. If the pro picks against the ATS trend guess what.....HE WONT PUT IT IN THE WRITE UP.

[ICE-BLOOD]

lets say college football team A is 7-3 ats the last ten, but the 3 losses are the 3 most recent games

how would you read that trend?

i read it as meaningless, like all the other ats trends over a large period of time

maybe there is something to these trends tho, but i sure dont see it.
and i doubt linesmakers take any of that into consideration, so maybe you can find an edge

[etothep]

This looks like an abortion debate. I don't see either side persuading the either in this one.

[Dbldown11]

It is not a stat in terms of the sport, it has absolutely nothing to do with schemes, coaches or anything it is not a reflection of anything other than the ability of vegas to create a number that will place large amounts of money on both sides of it.

Lets say last year the line was clemson -11 and the score was

Clem 20
WF 10

Now WF is 1-0 ATS.

What does that have to do with schemes and coaches or anything football related. It only has to do with vegas number being beat.

You can run that scenario 1000 times and it has absolutely no effect on the number that vegas and the betters determine is the spread for this game, this year.

"Pro" cappers always use ATS to make the fools that pay for their picks feel like they are doing the right thing and that odds are in their favor. If the pro picks against the ATS trend guess what.....HE WONT PUT IT IN THE WRITE UP.

I must make a note to pay attention when you speak. Thank you for understanding that and explaining it better than I could. He is one of those people that "pro-bettors" convince to pay them. You are right they use those stats as a means of getting people to pay for their picks so it looks like they know what they are talking about. And if the pick doesnt come through they just say....Look at all the trends this game broke...it would have been impossible to call this game...we will get em next time. Feeble minded people fall for it. Obviously you are not one of those people.

[artie81]

Yeh no point in beating a dead horse some people will ignore them and others will implement them in their capping. This game eventually will be considered the past and next year when they play again if Wake covers tomorrow the Ats % will be even higher. Maybe its not a coincidence when one team fails to cover the # against another team a high % of the time. I guess we shall see how it plays out tomorrow.

[Dbldown11]

This looks like an abortion debate. I don't see either side persuading the either in this one.

But unlike an abortion debate this argument has a deffinative right and wrong side to it....I feel like I'm trying to pursuade Italians that Columbus was in fact a bastard haha they'll never listen though. hahaha

[Dbldown11]

Yeh no point in beating a dead horse some people will ignore them and others will implement them in their capping. This game eventually will be considered the past and next year when they play again if Wake covers tomorrow the Ats % will be even higher. Maybe its not a coincidence when one team fails to cover the # against another team a high % of the time. I guess we shall see how it plays out tomorrow.

we will see. I believe Clemson covers, but if Wake does happen to cover please do not think it is because of those ridiculous ATS "trends". I'm not trying to be a bastard with all of this, I'm really not.

Im just getting frustrated that you cannot see how these are statistics that can be scewed a number of ways to prove different things, and they are a select number of statistics taken from a HUGE field of stats.

Lets do it this way. The past 10 years weather man "A" (Clemson) has said that on October 9th it will be greater than 70 degrees(Point spread with Clemson as favorite). Now for the past 10 years weather man "B"(Wake Forest) has said that on October 9th it will be less than 70 degrees(Point spread with Wake as underdog). weather man "B" has been right 7 out of 10 times. That makes him 7-3.

Now lets say this year Weather man "A" says it will be less than 70(point spread with clemson as dog) and weather man "B" says it will be greater than 70 (Point spread with Wake as favorite). Should the past "trend" of weather man "B" being 7-3 affect your thoughts on who you think will be right?

[Dbldown11]

Whether Clemson was heavily favored or not, arent we still betting with a point spread? So your saying if Wake was favored in the previous games it would matter? You know what there is no point in trying to explain I need as many people on the Clemson bandwagon so I can get a better line.

One final point...If Clemson was the favorite in all of those games you know what that means right? It means that the "trend" is for the underdog to cover!

See how these things can be scewed?????

[ICE-BLOOD]

this stuff is too funny
dont know what im doing wasting my time here, i should be checking to see which teams covered at a high % against their opponent over the last 10 years

[SR]

lets say college football team A is 7-3 ats the last ten, but the 3 losses are the 3 most recent games

how would you read that trend?

i read it as meaningless, like all the other ats trends over a large period of time

maybe there is something to these trends tho, but i sure dont see it.
and i doubt linesmakers take any of that into consideration, so maybe you can find an edge

This is actually a better example than my own. Perfect example in fact.

Pretend WF is 10-4 ATS sounds great right.....but the last 4 years they didnt cover. If I cared about past years spreads (I obviously don't) then I would probably say the trend is in clemsons favor.

Or even better I could say clemson is 4-0 against the spread YAY!


**I am not actually endorsing clemson or wake yet for that matter, I havent even looked at the game..I just hate historical ATS spreads.

[Miser]

In the wake of the lost to Navy will Wake wake up and not make tonight another Wake Island bloodbath tonight

I got a small wager on the over

[ryanXL977]

trends mean less in college sports than in any other bc most players play for what? 2-3 years max? who in gods name cares what happened in 2005. i doubt any of the same players are even at any skill positions, theyre in the nfl

[TPowell]

thats why you look at the last 3 years. Schemes don't change over 3 years for the most part. Wake Forest (-2.5) to the bank

[ryanXL977]

im leaning clem, espeically if swank is hurting, thats the best player wake has. wake can hardly score, they cant even run the ball

if i bet wake, its under the assumtion clem will find a way to **** it up bc thats what clem always does