BCS Title Game...LSU vs. Bama Opened @ Pick'em

[mlb]

wondering where you guys think this line will end up?

I am taking Bama and thinking about going huge (huge for me is probably small for you guys)

Wondering if I should punch it in now or wait?

[sandman0713]

doesn't matter...you will lose no matter what you get it at. lsu is better imo. espn owns the sec now tho, and the bcs...and i don't think it is in the best interest of any of the $$$ to have to answer all the questions resulting from a close bama win. lsu will win the game...one way or another. not that i think they need help. i just feel it will be there if it gets to that. pump it up tho so i can get lsu +++. espn will be saying that night how the best team in college football won the nc game, and nobody can argue it...and you can bet on that.

[SATERSTYLE]

Think LSU will get to around -3... If you are on Alabama I suggest you wait

[zsr]

Sandman get your fukin crybaby propaganda out of serious threads. Should be banned. I expect it to get to 3 though too, I'd wait on Alabama. Gonna hit the ml hard.

[mlb]

doesn't matter...you will lose no matter what you get it at. lsu is better imo. espn owns the sec now tho, and the bcs...and i don't think it is in the best interest of any of the $$$ to have to answer all the questions resulting from a close bama win. lsu will win the game...one way or another. not that i think they need help. i just feel it will be there if it gets to that. pump it up tho so i can get lsu +++. espn will be saying that night how the best team in college football won the nc game, and nobody can argue it...and you can bet on that.

Not even considering this as a factor in the game really but wont LSU dominating ask more questions?? or if LSU wins by any amount because then everyone should be saying OK st or someone else should be in there?

[mlb]

If bama wins then they more so deserved to be there or it seems that way you'd think

[mlb]

Think LSU will get to around -3... If you are on Alabama I suggest you wait

Sandman get your fukin crybaby propaganda out of serious threads. Should be banned. I expect it to get to 3 though too, I'd wait on Alabama. Gonna hit the ml hard.

thanks .. yeah I'm going to wait

[The DiB]

Still can't believe people are betting against LSU.

Not only are they clearly the best team, they've also covered in any meaningful game.

[mlb]

Beating bama and covering every meaningful game and being clearly the best team should warrant a spread of at least 3.5 wouldn't u say?

[sandman0713]

Not even considering this as a factor in the game really but wont LSU dominating ask more questions?? or if LSU wins by any amount because then everyone should be saying OK st or someone else should be in there?

no...everyone feels lsu is the one certain thing in the rankings, and they deserve that. that said...very rare in college football to have an earlier head to head matchup from the same season to consider when capping a game. from what i can find in the 24 rematches since conference title games began, the team winning the first game is 16-8 overall, and 14-9-1 ats in the rematch...and are 9-4-1 ats if they are a fav the second time. someone feel free to correct those slightly if they are off...but i think pretty accurate. if you cap this game based on actual stats and factual info alone...the way most of us do over the season...lsu will be at least a fg fav on a neutral field. you can take into account "missed chances" or "bogus calls"...but that is fantalk and crying, and the reality is lsu won this game head to head this season at bama. i give one to three points for hf when i cap...depending on who it is...and bama in the first game would get 3 points in the line, based on one of the 5 toughest places to play in the country maybe. i would guess that when the serious cappers here, who don't care who wins this game cap it...it will be lsu -3 to -4, and therefore the best value. so yes...it will move to bama + imo, and it should. i cap every game i bet on...tho i often let my opinion win, and bet against what i have figured to be correct by numbers alone. that said...i feel the system i use to cap is pretty fair, and it has been fairly accurate for me over almost 20 years of doing this. i have lsu -6...but that may be a little higher than most here. would be curious to hear the honest opinion from others here who cap. we give a lot of opinion and trashtalk, but rarely have i seen people actually compare the numbers they capped a game at. and zsr...you can go suck a dick man. i should be banned because i disagree with your dumb ass? there is a difference between fantalk and actual betting...and i feel i am pretty good at seperating the 2. i keep my plays each week open and honest as i track them in ncaa football and ncaa basketball, and very few can say that. i give actual facts and numbers in each post, mixed in with my opinion of what they mean. that is kind of the point of this forum...and if i should be banned for that, get me banned. there are tons of online gambling forums on the web, and another can get the credit for my deposits into online accounts next season if that is the case. only 2 posts in this thread of more than a couple of sentences, with actual thought and reasoning are by me...so i would question anyone who says i am not serious about it. that said...gl on bama. the spread will likely determine how i go here...along with the opinion of a few others here who bring out solid points as the game gets closer. lsu should get the love tho whenever people start betting.

[zsr]

No, you should be banned because your a dumbass who doesn't post facts but actually ignores the facts. That said I'm not going to turn yet another thread into you bitching and moaning because ok state didn't get in.

[mlb]

Thanks for the input man. You do make valid points and I didn't run the numbers on those previous games with the same matchup but I trust you are close enough ... my honest question then is with everything in lsus favor; undefeated, already beating bama, being out of bama which is top 5 place to play, in familair confines being in home state, covering every big hyped matchup number this year, prime time wins in blow out fashion, etc. Etc which believe me are all valid points..... why did they open as a pick and not favored.

I respect your number of -6 as I thought if lsu was -3.5 or more it would scare me off of bama. I just don't understand the low line especially when you bring recent public perception into this game which is lsus comeback last 2 weeks and turning it into a blowout ... just questions I have.

I don't have the expertise or skills to cap this game to a professional level however vegas does and I don't think the average Joe will cap it better.

Interested to hear yours and anyone elses input, btw I don't attack anyone and I don't trash ppls opinion so just curious....

Also, sorry for the terrible English in this post... sucks posting from a phone

[zsr]

If that first game showed us anything it's that alabama is the only team in the country who can hang with lsu for 4 quarters, both teams left a lot of points on the field with the missed field goals, pick at the 1 yard line, and the picks by jarred lee. I think them opening the line as a pick just shows that vegas feels the same way..should be right down to the wire.

[sandman0713]

Thanks for the input man. You do make valid points and I didn't run the numbers on those previous games with the same matchup but I trust you are close enough ... my honest question then is with everything in lsus favor; undefeated, already beating bama, being out of bama which is top 5 place to play, in familair confines being in home state, covering every big hyped matchup number this year, prime time wins in blow out fashion, etc. Etc which believe me are all valid points..... why did they open as a pick and not favored.

I respect your number of -6 as I thought if lsu was -3.5 or more it would scare me off of bama. I just don't understand the low line especially when you bring recent public perception into this game which is lsus comeback last 2 weeks and turning it into a blowout ... just questions I have.

I don't have the expertise or skills to cap this game to a professional level however vegas does and I don't think the average Joe will cap it better.

Interested to hear yours and anyone elses input, btw I don't attack anyone and I don't trash ppls opinion so just curious....

Also, sorry for the terrible English in this post... sucks posting from a phone

well i can tell you this man...there is no way vegas could even consider opening this game at even as much as -3 for either team. it was an overtime game the first time, and only 15 points were scored in very good conditions. anything at 3 or better would have got them killed on either team imo. i have it at -6 like i said...but if it had actually opened at that i would have loved bama at that number. vegas just based on where they feel it needs to be to get equal action...and not so much one team is really this many points better. i am sure you know that tho...and i am a little shocked lsu wasn't laying any points at all. i think many feel bama outplayed lsu in the first game...tho i didn't watch enough to have an opinion on that. maybe that is why my number is so high.

[zsr]

The Hilton line maker said the he would of opened ok state a double digit dog to lsu, this shows the respect they have for Alabama opening at a pk..

[mlb]

well i can tell you this man...there is no way vegas could even consider opening this game at even as much as -3 for either team. it was an overtime game the first time, and only 15 points were scored in very good conditions. anything at 3 or better would have got them killed on either team imo. i have it at -6 like i said...but if it had actually opened at that i would have loved bama at that number. vegas just based on where they feel it needs to be to get equal action...and not so much one team is really this many points better. i am sure you know that tho...and i am a little shocked lsu wasn't laying any points at all. i think many feel bama outplayed lsu in the first game...tho i didn't watch enough to have an opinion on that. maybe that is why my number is so high.

Yes sorry didn't realize ur line was your projection my bad .... if I could have guessed that they weren't gonna get equal action on this game at that line why didn't they ...

I wouldn't say Alabama killed them by any stretch but lsu needed a lot to go right to win that game and they got it which in the end is all that matters however if bama wins and doesn't miss 5 field goals this line is drastically different I would think ...who knows tho, you have more knowledge of the actual capping of this game I just never like being on the opposite side of the big boys for a highly bet prime time championship game

[sandman0713]

Yes sorry didn't realize ur line was your projection my bad .... if I could have guessed that they weren't gonna get equal action on this game at that line why didn't they ...

I wouldn't say Alabama killed them by any stretch but lsu needed a lot to go right to win that game and they got it which in the end is all that matters however if bama wins and doesn't miss 5 field goals this line is drastically different I would think ...who knows tho, you have more knowledge of the actual capping of this game I just never like being on the opposite side of the big boys for a highly bet prime time championship game

we got almost 2 weeks to get ready for the bowls. that is 2 weeks to cap and compare and hear opinions from people who know certain teams well. there is no reason you shouldn't be well ahead by the time the nc game gets here imo...and then it won't matter so much if you lose some on it. i wasn't here for last season bowl games...and i don't know how people did. i have always found them to be easy money tho, and i honestly don't recall a time i have lost money over bowl season. of course that is just talk since i have no record here outside of a crappy regular season...but i fully expect most to make money here this year on bowls. anyways...gl man. i don't think anyone can call this game with a great deal of confidence...just decide what they think it should be, and roll with whatever value they find.

[zsr]

MLB, please don't listen to the Vegas opens where they feel they can get equal action line as that will probably bury you in the future lol. Vegas bases all of there lines on there power rankings that they have, they don't care about equal action. Poster k13 posted them a week or 2 ago and it's actually really interesting to see who they respect and who they don't..look up the posts if your interested.. For example a team like Kansas state who was top 10, was still 10 and 14 point underdogs because Vegas just does not think there a good team.

[sandman0713]

MLB, please don't listen to the Vegas opens where they feel they can get equal action line as that will probably bury you in the future lol. Vegas bases all of there lines on there power rankings that they have, they don't care about equal action. Poster k13 posted them a week or 2 ago and it's actually really interesting to see who they respect and who they don't..look up the posts if your interested.. For example a team like Kansas state who was top 10, was still 10 and 14 point underdogs because Vegas just does not think there a good team.

WOW is all i can say. why does the spread move if they don't care about equal action? of course their spreads are based in part on power rankings. every capper uses some he trusts, or has created his own.

[zsr]

Putting our differences aside sandman I have no clue where you got that equal action thing from. Very rarely is it even close to even action, 60/40, 70/30, 90/10. Much more common. Look at some of the sites that track public play percentage, or listen to doc's weekly radio show at the top of the forum.

[zsr]

Not to mention the games where they use RLM, when all the action is on one side and they move the line more favorably to that side because they have a lean..

[sandman0713]

i don't want to be rude...but i need to know something for real. are you a girl zsr? i have never had a guy follow me around the way you do. you post like 5 minutes or less after i do in almost every thread, spewing bs...and i am just starting to wonder if you have a crush on me.

[zsr]

You are spewing bs that is not even close to true. My post was to help the poster above not get buried by your misleading advice. Vegas wants even action

[sandman0713]

Putting our differences aside sandman I have no clue where you got that equal action thing from. Very rarely is it even close to even action, 60/40, 70/30, 90/10. Much more common. Look at some of the sites that track public play percentage, or listen to doc's weekly radio show at the top of the forum.

you don't think they have money on the other side?

[mlb]

Most of those sites with public action are betting percentages, tickets punched not neccessarily money coming

[mlb]

You guys are funny...

[zsr]

you don't think they have money on the other side?

That's the point I'm making..it's not split action, it's a percentage of action on each side. Look at the sites. You'll be surprised how few games are ever close to even money.

[sandman0713]

Most of those sites with public action are betting percentages, tickets punched not neccessarily money coming

right. 2 of my family members ran books as i was growing up...and i learned what they felt to be truth. is it?...who knows. i don't believe for one second tho that vegas was built by gamblers guessing on spreads according to their power rankings. the only way vegas has no interest in equal action is if they actually have a hand in the outcome of said game. 10% on every bet made if they get equal action, with no risk whatsoever. ANYWAYS...

we don't really agree on anyting zsr. you think i am an idiot, and i think you may be a girl. no need to ruin the experience each of us have on this site with this nonsense. i will not respond to you, and i would hope you could leave it as well. i don't really care what you think about anything, and i am sure you feel the same about me. no need to jam up good threads with this stuff.

[mlb]

Hahaha well said ... back to talk about this game

[zsr]

Agreed to stay out of each others way. On this topic in general though, rlm is a great example of Vegas not wanting equal money, they certainly have a lean in every game. Listening to doc who's the line maker for Legends and several credit shops does a great job of explaining the action they get. One quick example is he said every single bettor took arkansas over Tennessee one week, he didn't move the line at all..

[zsr]

Hahaha well said ... back to talk about this game

Lol sorry man, anyway I like alabama as I said earlier..should be a great intense defensive battle like the last one. Gl

[LINE-crush-ER]

doesn't matter...you will lose no matter what you get it at. lsu is better imo. espn owns the sec now tho, and the bcs...and i don't think it is in the best interest of any of the $$$ to have to answer all the questions resulting from a close bama win. lsu will win the game...one way or another. not that i think they need help. i just feel it will be there if it gets to that. pump it up tho so i can get lsu +++. espn will be saying that night how the best team in college football won the nc game, and nobody can argue it...and you can bet on that.

yep your right the team that beat bama went on to the title game , hey where did Iowa State go
I think your looking for a fight man , they will give to you here , you seem like a good fan , but you moaned on and on - its time to move on

[LINE-crush-ER]

you don't think they have money on the other side?

its called a tease you dumb ass if they went around capping this game at 6 or even 7 now your getting 17 , find 2 other bets like that and you can retire early .

[hawk 5]

Academics may play a factor in this game. Been hearing rumors that some of LSU players may be declared ineligible. Just rumors but it happens every year.

[mlb]

Academics may play a factor in this game. Been hearing rumors that some of LSU players may be declared ineligible. Just rumors but it happens every year.

U trying to stir something up or where did u hear this?