Sharps on Ole Miss?

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  • rtiet1
    SBR Rookie
    • 09-22-11
    • 25

    #1
    Sharps on Ole Miss?
    Something really strange about this game. The line for Arky dropped from -17 to -15, while the public bets keep on increasing. Keep in my this is the #1 public bet as of right now, 93% public. For the other 7% to move the lines over 2pt hurdles, there must be a large significant amount of money coming in from them. Looking at this information, I think this is clearly SHARP money. Remember people all relevant information is already reflected in the line aka the efficient market hypothesis theory. The sharps know something the public doesnt...... Call me crazy but I might be rolling with Ole Miss.

    Here is the link to the line movement of the two teams


    Here is the link to that shows where all the public bets are going.
    Get real-time college football public betting trends and percentages for every game. See who the public is betting on for an edge in your NCAA wagers.
  • brahmabull117
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-08-10
    • 8622

    #2
    good god almighty again with this reverse line movement crap



    hasn't that been proven to be a terribly ineffective strategy this year in college football?
    Comment
    • M.W.
      SBR MVP
      • 09-07-08
      • 1668

      #3
      Remember people all relevant information is already reflected in the line aka the efficient market hypothesis theory.
      Ugh.
      Comment
      • No coincidences
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-18-10
        • 76300

        #4
        Originally posted by brahmabull117
        good god almighty again with this reverse line movement crap



        hasn't that been proven to be a terribly ineffective strategy this year in college football?
        So far, yes.

        If you think the books won't adjust, well, have fun losing all of the money you've gained by ignoring it (and then some).
        Comment
        • brahmabull117
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 11-08-10
          • 8622

          #5
          Originally posted by No coincidences
          If you think the books won't adjust

          I do think the books will adjust, but they do that by putting out sharper lines - not making Arkansas 16 point favorites in a game that they will likely win by 21+
          Comment
          • mp5070
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 09-13-08
            • 5446

            #6
            Trust me its not the sharps....

            The sharps wont come in until the hour of the game time....
            Comment
            • Donnie Brasco
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 01-04-11
              • 862

              #7
              Originally posted by mp5070
              Trust me its not the sharps....

              The sharps wont come in until the hour of the game time....
              Are u kidding, sharps hit openers also. They cant wait to pounce on bad #'s!
              Comment
              • Dexter
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 12-24-08
                • 25829

                #8
                Originally posted by rtiet1
                Something really strange about this game. The line for Arky dropped from -17 to -15, while the public bets keep on increasing. Keep in my this is the #1 public bet as of right now, 93% public. For the other 7% to move the lines over 2pt hurdles, there must be a large significant amount of money coming in from them. Looking at this information, I think this is clearly SHARP money. Remember people all relevant information is already reflected in the line aka the efficient market hypothesis theory. The sharps know something the public doesnt...... Call me crazy but I might be rolling with Ole Miss.

                Here is the link to the line movement of the two teams


                Here is the link to that shows where all the public bets are going.
                http://www.thespread.com/ncaa-colleg...-betting-chart
                what would you play ole miss at? +15?

                you missed the "sharp" bet. wait for the line to go back up as they always seem to seesaw...
                Comment
                • Dexter
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 12-24-08
                  • 25829

                  #9
                  Originally posted by No coincidences
                  So far, yes.

                  If you think the books won't adjust, well, have fun losing all of the money you've gained by ignoring it (and then some).
                  how would the books adjust for the favorites winning in these RLM games? not move the line down to 15 even though heavy money came in on the dog?
                  Comment
                  • rtiet1
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 09-22-11
                    • 25

                    #10
                    Im just providing some other angles to look at thats all. Im not saying for people to rely just on RLM. Just helping out the community thats all
                    Comment
                    • suicidekings
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 03-23-09
                      • 9962

                      #11
                      Originally posted by rtiet1
                      Something really strange about this game. The line for Arky dropped from -17 to -15, while the public bets keep on increasing. Keep in my this is the #1 public bet as of right now, 93% public. For the other 7% to move the lines over 2pt hurdles, there must be a large significant amount of money coming in from them. Looking at this information, I think this is clearly SHARP money. Remember people all relevant information is already reflected in the line aka the efficient market hypothesis theory. The sharps know something the public doesnt...... Call me crazy but I might be rolling with Ole Miss.

                      Here is the link to the line movement of the two teams


                      Here is the link to that shows where all the public bets are going.
                      http://www.thespread.com/ncaa-colleg...-betting-chart
                      Judging line movement and public betting numbers in the middle of the week is a really bad idea because the numbers right now mean less than they will at any other point this week... The "public" haven't spoken yet and won't until Friday night / Saturday morning.

                      It's nice when the market agrees with your pick, but basing a play just on line movement is not a viable approach to capping games. The only reason to watch line movement is to enable yourself to get the best price on the team you want to play.
                      Comment
                      • Urbanwildlife
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 09-06-11
                        • 5958

                        #12
                        Amen, and as always suicidekings, you are a voice of reason.
                        Comment
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