Wisconsin/Michigan St

Gamblin'Machi · 10-18-11, 11:10 PM

I find it hard to go against Wisconsin, but the competition they have played is poor, but they have handled them all like they should. However, I can see this game being like the Wisconsin/Ohio State game last year and Michigan State upsetting a highly ranked conference foe at home with gameday in attendance. I think I'm staying away unless I happen to be profitable early in the day.

travismcilrath · 10-18-11, 11:22 PM

wisconsin will cover

travismcilrath · 10-18-11, 11:23 PM

prob go under too

travismcilrath · 10-18-11, 11:23 PM

idk

mission · 10-18-11, 11:27 PM

Wisconsin covers. This is not your daddy's Badgers with Russell Wilson.

UW or no play...

LSUtiger · 10-19-11, 12:33 AM

I just wrote a pretty lengthy post going over this game. check it out if you want.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-betting/1334255-just-another-thread-some-random-guys-picks.html#post11946723

mp5070 · 10-19-11, 06:55 AM

Wisky and the OVER......

Seaton420 · 10-19-11, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by mp5070

Wisky and the OVER......

Fanatik · 10-19-11, 11:59 AM

Mich St. D is good, but it won't be able to keep them within 8.5 points of Wisconsin... End of story! I love Wisconsin here, I think 8.5 is a gift...

Urbanwildlife · 10-19-11, 12:01 PM

Here’s The Deal … Can we just call this the Big Ten Championship and let everyone rest up for the bowl games?

Wisconsin has been the best-looking team in the Big Ten by a ten-mile wide margin, but it also helps that it played Nebraska and, and, uhhhh, Nebraska. As much as head coach Bret Bielema doesn’t seem to care about the criticism of the non-conference schedule – it’s not Bucky’s fault that Oregon State turned out to be miserable – it’s been a big problem with the BCS computer formulas. The Badgers have the universal respect of the voters, partly because of ten straight regular season wins by double-digits, but being ranked No. 4 in both human polls didn’t matter in the first BCS rankings with the computers averaging out to a No. 11 spot.

No matter what the wires and buttons say, if Wisconsin beats Michigan State at Michigan State, and does it with ease, it really will be time to start up the national title talk.

If Wisconsin is the best-looking team in the Big Ten, MSU is No. 2 after getting by Ohio State at Ohio State and beating up Michigan last week. The team was awful in the 31-13 loss to Notre Dame, but the D has been a brick wall in the other five games ranking No. 2 in the nation in total defense behind Alabama, fourth in scoring defense, and No. 1 in pass defense and pass efficiency defense.

But Wisconsin is No. 2 in the nation in passing efficiency with quarterback Russell Wilson ranked No. 1.

It’s been prove it game after game for the Spartans with another one at Nebraska coming up next, but no matter what happens this week, it should be smooth sailing to the Legends title with at least a split over the next two games. The defense is playing too well to blow it on the road at Iowa or Northwestern, and Minnesota and Indiana are layups. Basically, considering Nebraska still has some nasty road dates ahead at Penn State and Michigan, MSU’s win over Michigan might have secured a spot in the inaugural Big Ten title game.

The same goes for Wisconsin if it can at least split against the Spartans and at Ohio State next week, even though the Illinois game on the road is still there to deal with, but there are bigger fish to fry than simply winning the title of a mediocre conference. The national title is in play, but with so few marquee matchups on the slate, and with the Gameday and primetime spotlight on this game, just getting a win might not be enough. The destruction of Nebraska set the tone for a No. 4 spot in the human polls, and to hold off the Stanfords, Clemsons, and Oklahoma States of the world, winning impressively could be a must. That could be a problem.

The home team has won the last six games in this series going back to 2002, and last year the Spartans came up with their signature win of the season with a 34-24 win that was a bit out-of-character, considering that team’s problems with third down conversions and mistakes going into the showdown.

No, this isn’t the matchup that’ll end up deciding the Rose Bowl, but the winner will be the odds-on favorite.

Why Wisconsin Might Win: It’s not like the Michigan State offense is rolling at a high level. It blew up Central Michigan and Florida Atlantic, but it needed the defense to take care of business against Michigan and it got just one measly early touchdown against Ohio State.

The passing game worked in comeback mode against Notre Dame, but the ground game was stopped cold. The running game was terrific against Michigan, but the passing game cranked out just 120 yards. Against Ohio State, Kirk Cousins threw for 250 yards, but he also gave away two picks for the sputtering attack. Wisconsin’s defense hasn’t been tested yet, but it’s active enough and aggressive enough against the run to keep the Spartan ground game from taking control. The more one-dimensional MSU can be, the better.

Wisconsin has to stay flawless at all the little things. The Badgers lead the nation in third down conversion percentage, connecting 60% of the time, while MSU is awful converting just 38% of its chances. MSU is among the most penalized teams in America, committing 13 dumb ones last week against the Wolverines and 12 against Notre Dame, while the Badgers have evenly spread out their sins over the first six games. Most importantly in a game this big, turnovers will play a key role. The Spartans have given it up nine times on the year with seven of them coming against Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Michigan, while the Badgers have turned it over three times. Wisconsin has just one fumble – not just lost fumble, one fumble – in 263 carries and 387 total touches.

Why Michigan State Might Win: Wisconsin’s defense, Michigan State would like you introduce you to something you haven’t seen all season long; an offense that can throw the forward pass.

The Badger secondary lost top corner Devin Smith for the year with a foot injury and has had a variety of bumps and bruises across the board for an already thin unit. Fortunately, it hasn’t mattered much considering the pass rush has been decent against a slew of awful offensive lines and the two good quarterbacks the defensive backs have faced – Nebraska’s Taylor Martinez and NIU’s Chandler Harnish – are mainly runners. The Spartan offensive line has been terrific in pass protection so far and Kirk Cousins should get all the time he needs to hit on the midrange throws to keep the air attack moving. The Spartan passing game might not be special, but it’ll look like the New England Patriots to the Badgers.

The bigger problem for the Badgers could be an MSU defensive line that’s crushing everything in its path. Wisconsin lives for using its big offensive line to lean, lean, lean, lean and then boom; the smaller defensive lines cave. Even Nebraska’s defensive line didn’t have a shot once the Badger front five got into a groove, but Jerel Worthy and the Spartan front four aren’t going to budge. The pass rush has been terrific, coming from all angles and sides, and the run defense has been phenomenal so far allowing just 67 yards per game. It’s strength vs. strength, and considering Wisconsin hasn’t dealt with any adversity yet, this will be a huge test to see what the team is made of.

What To Watch Out For: This might be Russell Wilson’s national Heisman moment, but Wisconsin needs to get Montee Ball going right away to show the ultra-confident MSU defensive line that it’s in for a whole new world compared to last year. Ball ran just two times for six yards in last season’s loss, but over the first six games of this season he’s averaging over six yards per carry with 16 rushing touchdowns and a receiving score. Going back to last year, in his last 12 games he has 32 total scores.

With the way the Spartans will bring the pressure from all sides, and with UW star receiver Nick Toon fighting through a foot injury, watch for Wilson to target tight end Jacob Pederson one several quick hitters just to keep the offense moving and to get rid of the ball in a hurry. Wilson likes to throw the deep ball, but he won’t get the luxury of time this week.

The 1-2 Michigan State receiving punch of B.J. Cunningham and Keshawn Martin have to dominate. Cunningham caught three passes for 25 yards and a touchdown in last year’s win, and he was held to 39 yards on four catches against Michigan, but he blew up against Ohio State with nine grabs for 154 yards and the lone touchdown, and he ripped up Notre Dame for 158 yards on 12 carries. He has the size and experience to create major matchup problems, while Martin is coming off his strongest game with two touchdown catches against the Wolverines.

What Will Happen: Last year MSU won by converting 9-of-18 third down chances and two very, very big fourth down tries to hold on to the ball for over 36 minutes. Wisconsin only ran 56 plays, quarterback Scott Tolzien had his worst game of the year, and the ground attack was held to 165 yards, and still it took everything to go right for the Spartans to hang on. This year things will be reversed. Wisconsin will control the ball and the clock, and while the offense won’t explode, it’ll do just enough to keep the Spartan offense off the field. Cousins will connect for a few deep scores, but that’ll only skew the time of possession even further to Bucky’s side.

m0stwanted · 10-19-11, 12:03 PM

I dunno bout this game gotta wait to see how the spread moves