Spladle08 Week 8 Write ups

[csknight3]

I like the way you think on almost every play. Great Write ups like always.

I dont like doing these big parlays but I dont see this one losing and its 1 unit to win 5.43.

Pending 10 Team Parlay
Pending 10/22/11 12:30pm College Football 321 Wake Forest -145* vs Duke
Pending 10/22/11 12:20pm College Football 323 Arkansas -950* vs Mississippi
Pending 10/22/11 12:00pm College Football 328 Clemson -380* vs North Carolina
Pending 10/22/11 3:30pm College Football 333 Texas A&M -1375* vs Iowa State
Pending 10/22/11 12:00pm College Football 353 Oklahoma State -270* vs Missouri
Pending 10/22/11 12:00pm College Football 363 Kansas State -440* vs Kansas
Pending 10/22/11 7:15pm College Football 380 Alabama -8000* vs Tennessee U
Pending 10/22/11 8:00pm College Football 386 Stanford -1375* vs Washington U
Pending 10/22/11 3:30pm College Football 388 LSU -1650* vs Auburn
Pending 10/22/11 8:00pm College Football 389 Wisconsin -320* vs Michigan State

Also Im going big with this teaser. -110 odds.

Pending 2 Team Teaser (ties push) Teaser tp 6½fb & 5bk
Pending 10/22/11 12:00pm College Football 353 Oklahoma State -1 * vs Missouri
Pending 10/22/11 12:00pm College Football 363 Kansas State -5½ * vs Kansas

And then this is another fun one Im doing. $5 to win $112.50

Pending 6 Team Parlay
Pending 10/22/11 3:30pm College Football 333 Texas A&M -19½ -120* vs Iowa State
Pending 10/22/11 12:00pm College Football 353 Oklahoma State -6½ -125* vs Missouri
Pending 10/22/11 12:00pm College Football 363 Kansas State -9½ -160* vs Kansas
Pending 10/22/11 7:15pm College Football 380 Alabama -27½ -130* vs Tennessee U
Pending 10/22/11 8:00pm College Football 386 Stanford -16½ -180* vs Washington U
Pending 10/22/11 8:00pm College Football 389 Wisconsin -6½ -170* vs Michigan State

What do you think about those my friend?

[lecubs28]

Wisconsin has gone down to -7, I just picked it up.

[sportfan]

Lsu and the over are the plays looks like

[Fanatik]

Hey man, just one quick note... All your picks are 55% favorites or better according to espn pick center except one... However, it is the one I bet the biggest on... WVU over 59. They show it as a 63% chance of going under and only a 34% chance of going over... In one of your post you said over 58 would hit for sure, in your break down of the games you said you may take it. With all of this, what are your thoughts? You said my picks I posted earlier on here were golden, but do you think there is a better bet out there than the WVU over for me to bet the biggest on? (see my prev pick post and the unit distribution, you will see that this is the main one that covers me) please weigh in on this for me. I give more cred to your picks than their computer system b/c I have seen more high % picks on it not pan out than I have seen your high * picks not work, but it's just that 63% is a very very high % on that system. It rarely goes over 58% for anything...

On another note, I really like the Utah St. -6.5 pick too, you should check it out for yourself, I think it's a good pick! It opened at -5.5 and has already jumped to - 6.5. I am not playing it b/c I am going with what you suggested and I dont want to go over my alloted units with another pick... I like to play responsibly so it remains fun win or lose... But, you may want to check it out before it hits 7, I think it is a *** plus bet. Just trying to give a little help back to you in leui of all the insight you have provided me with... And, if you like it better than any of the picks I put in for myself, I can still change...

But, my main concern is your thoughts on the WVU big bet of mine in leui of this post... Please reply to this.

Lastly, b/c of your user name I have to ask, were you a wrestler?

[ken10]

Yo Spladle... You got anything on the Thursday games?

[Coach Jake]

Spladle you somehow figured out my picks, copied them, and added NIU lol. I think all your plays this week are smart.

One play I think you need to consider adding again is Oregon -30.5-Colorado. Colorado is absolutely crippled with 7 pure DBs injured/suspended for the season. They've also lost their best WR, 2 LBs, and their backup RB they moved to CB because they were so thin. On special teams they were so desperate for any speed that they played their heart and soul running back, and now he's hurt until November. Speedy Stewart was the only weapon Colorado had and with him goes any chance to move forward on offense. How is Colorado going to score any points at all? Many teams would beat Colorado by 40+ in this state.

Im dying to find a Colorado backer on this one, haha

[spladle08]

CSKnight you look golden as always

Jake, I will look more in depth at the Oregon game.

Ken10, I will look at tonight's plays shortly

Fanatik, dont read too much into it. There are plenty of plays you can sub in. If you like USU play them, Im about to look at USU and ULL after I respond to some PM's so stay tuned

[spladle08]

LOL one more thing in regards to the WVU over
12 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 92'
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
@ Syracuse, 6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992

This is an against the grain pick and if it makes you uncomfortable don't ride the train but I like it and its locked and loaded.
Note* with Holgerson WVU is a different beast. They only scored a total of 59 once last year(10)... and have gone under 59 only once this year.
in 09 they also only went over 59* 1 time..... DIFFERENT BEAST... they will go over

GOOD LUCK MY FRIEND

[spladle08]

Not sure of the edge in the USU game, I haven't looked into it too in depth but on the surface this is what stands out to me:
LaTech's 24-6 victory last year (10)
USU's 21-23 victory they year before (09)
USU's losses this year to Fresno, CSU, BYU
LaTechs worst loss being to Hawaii, with their next biggest loss being by 6 to MissSt in OT (aka 3 of 4 losses were within 6pts)
LaTech has a decent run D vs a USU run only team
USU has put up more points per game (54-webber state and 63-Wyoming help that number) and they are 4-2 ATS but so is LaTech...

I just dont see any solid play here. Help me out with what your angle is.

[bspring]

I am on La Tech.. they have a ton of big school talent... I think this would be a non issue if USU didnt look so strong against Auburn, BYU, ETC... not to mention the TV time they are getting is outrageous.

Lennon Creer runs wild, I see la tech... but again I would not force it bc franklly this games are tough to cap

[Bryant7275]

One lock is for sure. ARK-15.5
I'm a big OM fan and I've watched every game this year and keep up with all tidbits. I can tell you one thing OM will lose to ARK by atleast 25 or more. Plus we have 2 def starters out.
"Should be the lock of the week"

[spladle08]

W. Kentucky vs LaFayette: OV 45.5
WKU (18.5/26.2) 6-1 SU 5-2 ATS, 4-3 O/U
ULL (32.3/26.6) 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U
Going to make this quick. WKU won in 2010 @ ULL as a 6 point dog (54-21), ULL won @WKU in 09 by 8pts as a 6.5 favorite. Both games have gone over the total.
At a glance WKU seems to be improving as the year goes on, over their last 3 games they have dropped a close decision to a good Ark St team 26-22, Beat a scrappy Middle Tennessee in OT and held Florida Atlantic scoreless in a 20-0 victory.
ULL has cruised in most games but played with fire at times as well. In their latest game they beat North Texas 30-10 behind a 17pt 4th quarter.
Their one common opponent was Florida Atlantic whom WKU held scoreless for a 20-0 win and ULL beat 37-34 at home.
Offensive and Defensive numbers are a wash (ULL averages 17 more yards per game on offense and 14 less on defense)
ULL has scored a 14more points per… and this sways me slightly but not enough to make a play.
ULL is 12-4 ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games and 9-2 ATS in games played on turf (so that’s encouraging)
Im not going to look into it too much more, what did the line open at? I feel like I remember 3… I see it now at 3.5 so no major movements people like to talk about “Sharps” vs the Public…. I think this will be one were they both hammer the line, the public sees “6-1 vs 2-4” but I think the Sharps bet WKU here…. Im informed enough to not touch it because I don’t feel confident one way or the other. Meh. Good Luck to whoever plays this.
If I had to play it I would go over 45.5 for a few reasons.
ULL has gone over that number in 5 of 7 games
WKU has gone over that number in 4 of 6
I think ULL gets their 30+points as they have in all but 1 game this year
and I think WKU gets (at least) in the 20’s
OV 45.5 (sorry that took so much rambling to decide.)

[Coach Jake]

Spladle, for Oregon, just look at Colorado's injuries:

http://chicagosports.sportsdirectinc.com/football/ncaaf-injuries.aspx?page=/data/ncaaf/injury/injuries.html

Another DB and WR were even added since last night...But the key injury to look at is Rodney Stewart. Not too many teams put everything on one dude's shoulders, but Colorado took a gamble and now he's done. Even the backup RB is out so they are starting a freshman...Take a good look at this one bro, dying to see your honest take!!

[spladle08]

tonight plays (im not playing any tonight)
UAB vs UCF…. UAB +16
Why? Jesus I wish I could answer this.
UCF has covered the last 2 years but I just don’t see it here. At a glance UAB sucks but they are coming along, they lost to ECU 23-28, Troy 23-24, MissST 3-21, and Tulsa 20-37 over their last 4 games.
UCF on the other hand hasn’t scored more than 17 points in any of their last 4 games with losses to FIU, BYU, and SMU, and a 10pt win over Marshall.
UAB has covered in all of their last 4 games while UCF hasn’t covered in any of their last 4.
The game is @UAB, the UCF offense has been struggling… 16 points is too much.

Arizona vs UCLA… Arizona -4 (I know I know, Zona has been brutal)
I am an Arizona fan, it’s a home game, they have a good offense and UCLA sucks
UCLA has only covered 1 spread in 6 games (zona has only covered 2)
Arizona averages more offense and they both have piss poor defenses (but Arizona has played a lot of big name teams)
The last 2 times they played Zona has won by 8 and 14
Im not using the Oregon State common opponent as a reference because I don’t think it matters. This Oregon State team would beat UCLA if they played again. The over is at 62, but I can’t touch it. Could be a 35-21 type game… Arizona covers. Good Luck.

[spladle08]

Spladle, for Oregon, just look at Colorado's injuries:
http://chicagosports.sportsdirectinc.../injuries.html

Another DB and WR were even added since last night...But the key injury to look at is Rodney Stewart. Not too many teams put everything on one dude's shoulders, but Colorado took a gamble and now he's done. Even the backup RB is out so they are starting a freshman...Take a good look at this one bro, dying to see your honest take!!

Love that link thanks man.

And yeah 4 stars to Oregon (30.5), I am adding them to my list. This has been a brutal season for Colorado, there isn't a whole lot to say. Oregon just murders bad teams. They have put up 41+ in every game but the LSU game and CO is going to have a hell of a time moving the ball. Shouldn't be a problem. Oregon rolls here 58-21 Meh I locked it in my plays are getting kinda high need to find a few more though.

Updated card
WVU -14
WVU-Ov 58 (they haven’t gone under 59 since week 1)
NIU-14
NIU-Ov 62 (NIU has never gone under 50, gone under 60 just 2x and gone over 70 in their other 5 games)
OSU -7
Temple -13
Stanford -21
Wisc -9
KSU -11
Wake -3
Nebraska-Ov 56.5 Nebraska has gone under 56.5 in only 2 of 6 games. Minnesota has gone over the total 4 games in a row
Ark-15.5
TA&M-20.5
Oregon-30.5

I still need to examine all these, especially that UTEP game.
AF/BSU Ov 64
OU/TT Ov 69.5
Wisc/MSU Ov 49
Wake/Duke Ov 59.5
OSU/Mizz Ov 69
Clemson -10
Rutgers +2
Boise -31
Bama -29
Utep -7

**EDIT I copied my card off my computer and had 2 of the spreads wrong. (nothing to serious)

[Coach Jake]

Word, got my Spladle Seal of Approval!! I really don't see Colorado scoring any touchdowns....maybe a few field goals after turnovers, lol. I'm going to look at the Colorado under as well. If it's 14 or above, then I'm playing it. I'm going to follow you on NIU too, it looks like a good play, and I love betting againt Buffalo haha.

[spladle08]

Yeah Buffalo is the worst... and NIU seems to be figuring out their defensive problems a bit but I still seem them giving up points (mid 20s) but scoring high 40's.

[LSUtiger]

LOVE the Oregon play, I'm definitely on board with the pick. Until today, I thought 30 may be too big of a number. I was sold after reading an article titled "Oregon Ducks in no hurry to pull starters during blowout victories", seeing the injury report, and remembering that Oregon has a nice little 1 after the dash in the W-L column. Since we know it takes a an absolute murdering for chip to call off the dogs, the only question that is relevant is "Can Oregon beat Colorado by 30?". My answer is most definitely yes.

Link to Article:

http://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/index.ssf/2011/10/oregon_ducks_in_no_hurry_to_pu.html

[chitown17]

Just found your thread and I cant wait to see how your picks play out. Did you look at the USC/ND (-8.5/-9) game? What are you thoughts? I hear there is a lot of talk about USC starting a lot of freshman/red-shirt freshman vs ND's experienced team.

[Cris_from_Europe]

Spladle I'd like your thoughts on this ML parlay for this week b4 i pull the trigger on it:

Arkansas + Clemson + Kansas ST + Toledo + Notre Dame. What do you think where will the upset be ? I can kick 1 team if that is the case or if you got a better solution ? My one worry is kinda Notre Dame but from what I hear its will be an evening game where about 80.000 people will push ND to get the W. Also as I was writing this the line just went from 8.5 to 9.5 at my book bet365.

[spladle08]

I think your good on the ML. All those games (except Ark) have potential to be closer than the spreads indicate. UNC could play Clemson close, KSU could be looking ahead to the OU game, ND could have a meltdown and Brian Kelly could implode, but I don't think you will lose any. If thats a parlay you like, I cant argue against it. Seems solid.

ChiTown I havent looked into the USC game anymore than what I did Monday, but I had written:
USC vs ND: ND -8.5***
USC (30.0 / 23.5) 5-1 SU 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U
ND (32.3 / 21.0) 4-2 SU 3-3 ATS, 2-3-1 O/U
I have 2-$100 bets this year against my friend (a USC homer), we made them preseason, and I have Stanford and ND straight up… going to be the easiest $200 I’ve ever made.
Ok let’s give a little info. ND could easily be 6-0. The loss to USF at home was 100% the result of failing to take care of the ball. They then had a meltdown at the end of the Michigan game, and Denard did go bananas, but since then, they have been the team most of us expected; very talented, with a potent offense and respectable defense. They beat a good MSU team 31-13, snuck by Pitt, crushed Purdue, and crushed AF. Likewise, USC hasn’t looked terrible but they just aren’t as good as their 5-1 record advertises. They got by Minny by 2, Utah by 9, Cuse by 21, got pummeled by ASU, beat Arizona in a shootout and crushed an over-rated California team. So yeah, they have played one good team and have one loss, as they should. The offenses have put up similar numbers (~37yards per game difference in favor of ND) with USC relying a little more on the pass and Notre Dame being pretty well balanced. USC has been giving up less than 100yrds per game on the ground and whether or not they are able to contain Cierre Wood will be a determining factor in this game. If they can, I think Rees and the ND passing game won’t be as effective, but if they can’t, look for a big game against this USC secondary which allows 271yrds through the air per game. USC will need to establish a run game as well; outside of the 363yards they gave up to AF, ND has been very solid against the run. They held a powerful Purdue rushing attack to only 84yards, and MSU to only 29. Well my boss just called and he is on his way over so I am going to wrap this up and take a break from typing.
Notre Dame won last year @ USC 20-16 and has covered the spread the last 2 years. Look for this trend to continue, ND wins by 2TDS. 3 stars. I would also suggest the over but Im not 100% sold on the idea that USC can score. In 3 of their last 4 games, ND has held their opponents to 13 or less.

Just go back a few pages and you will see a lot of people posting some good stuff. Good Luck this weekend.

[Outhouse Tim]

Way too much chalk!

No question the talk has been all about top 5-10 teams easily covering, but do not think Vegas is making a correction. I've spoken two a pair of people who already see the inflate. Personally I think the chalk may cover 50-50 or a bit more in all game this week, and if so, we'll head to next week with a great expectation of an underdog correction!

An easy example came in the NFL last week with the over-inflation of the totals. Meanwhile, six teams had byes and in ALL SIX GAMES, the total went UNDER. Why? A "2nd" training camp, which the team needed to play more sound as a unit. Unfortunately, Vegas has made a few adjustments to the NFL totals, but it was fun while it lasted (5-0 on the unders, passed on MNF game).

You have some good plays here, but all I'm saying is the card is tipped a bit heavy on the chalk, and Vegas is starting to make corrections. Don't know if you use or have your own Power #'s, but if so, you will find the games where inflation has occurred. Does that mean take the other side? NO, not necessarily. Oklahoma is historically great hosting TT. You would not just take TT because the line is high, which it is for this year.

Your card is pretty good, but I'm just thinking out loud. Maybe you have the best of the favorites this week, as I only see Missouri as a possible technical play against you BCS conference favorites. I'm actually not for or against any of your plays, but working a middle on the Kansas-K St game with that one game showing a very suspect line.

Good luck to all.

[spladle08]

Thanks Tim and yeah I know I have all favorites, as I did last week (with the exception of Purdue) and overs, but I look at a ton of games and sometimes I don't feel there is a play and even if I am leaning towards the dog I don't usually take em if its not obvious. Hmmm how can I explain this..... I guess what I am saying is between overs and favorites I like to get about 14-18 plays in a weekend and dont really look to bet dogs too often. For example: If I told you to find 10 games out of all games being played this weekend that you thought would go OVER the total. I bet you could find 10 you were fairly confident in. It doesn't mean you expect every game on the weekend to go OVER, just means you found the games you were looking for. Does that make sense?

[spladle08]

And good luck btw

[spladle08]

LOL speaking of dogs, Im about to lock in Rutgers +1.5 for Friday. After I look at it a little more... Im 89% sure I will play it because Im feeling the itch and Im a degen.
god I hate lockin in bets on impulse but im being requested outside and I cant have this line dropping anymore
Rutgers is 5-1 ATS 5-1 straight up
Louisville cant score (averages only 16 pts to Rutgers 30) both teams have stout defenses.
Only common opponent is UNC who both teams lost to.
Louisville has been a home favorite 3 times this year and lost all 3 (2 SU 3 ATS) They have both gone under all but 1 game... meh Under seems like a play also... meh I should look more into this but I am lockin it in +1.5 (such a bad/quick play but yeah well... pray for me)

[Fanatik]

I'm riding the WVU over with you, I like it myself, and if you like it, after questioning it, that's good enough for me. Thanks for all the help, GL! I like knowing that I'm on your bandwagon...

[Outhouse Tim]

Makes sense in the way that none of us expect to hit 100%, and the goal is to be right 6 of 10. Just something to look at IN CASE favorites have a strong week. A always look for corrections and regressions in handicapping, which comes in extra handy in the NFL but is a bit harder to sift through with 40-47 games in the NCAA.

Good luck this week; I think you'll be a winner.

[spladle08]

You too. Im starting NFL tomorrow, I didnt look into it enough last week and it came back to bite me. Need to do a lot more reading this week.

[spladle08]

Updated card
Rutgers +1.5 (this was a quick impulsive play... scroll up to read why I did this, but I wouldn't tail me here, irresponsible play but probably the right play for the game)
WVU -14
WVU-Ov 58
NIU-14
NIU-Ov 62
OSU -7
Temple -13
Stanford -21
Wisc -9
KSU -11
Wake -3
Nebraska-Ov 56.5
Ark-15.5
TA&M-20.5
Oregon-30.5
AF/BSU OV-64
and I am done I think... got my kid all weekend so I am going to have to "PLAY" and not have time to look at things, sigh.... good luck everyone I will try and glance at these throughout the weekend. But between NFL and playing I wont have much time to look to deep into anymore college games.
(PS I know people think Boise isnt an over team this year but they have turned on the jets the last few games, and air force has gone over in ever game this year. Boise will score 50+ and AF will add some.. taking the over and not looking back)

[Bucky buck]

BOL this weekend spladle.....
Awesome insight and write ups this week, thanks for all the help....let's kick week 8 in the nuts!!!! Got my "power" parlays locked
Arkansas-wake-wvu and okie state-k state-tamu

Let's roll!!

[spladle08]

thanks Buck... got 2 wins in the Ark St game and looks like 2 wins tonight (unless there is a miracle)... going to start the week 4-0 and have $0 to show for it... haven't bet any of these early week games.

[Maddhatter]

GL this week Spladle! I have a lot of similar plays as you this week. Hope we both do well. Glad we are on the same side on a bunch of games. I'd probably still play it but I'd hate to go against your reasonings. Lotta respect for you and your cappin. Keep it up.

[Kodytena22]

Good picks thanks what do you think would be a solid 3 teamer for a parlay? Looking to drop few hundred

[spladle08]

Thanks hatter.... I hope we crush, it sucks losing after thinking you put in enough work to give yourself an edge.



Kodyt: when it comes to parlays you better make sure you pick ones you love... because if one loses you don't want to have that "why did I listen to that guy" feeling.... that said, I don't think niu, wake, wvu, Arkansas, ta&m, ksu, get challenged much...pick the 3 you like best there and nobody will argue against you

[Kodytena22]

Thanks a lot bud I think my final is going to be ark, wake, and if you had a choice between ksu or niu for the safer pick which way would you lean?