Incredible insight! 
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Great Pick on tonight man... I should have listened to your under bet... But, like I said, if I would have put any even slightly significant amount of money on it, I would have gone with your pick...Comment -
K State vs Kansas: KSU -11 = LOCK
KSU (29.3 / 19.5) 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS, 3-2 O/U
KS (31.7 / 49.0) 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-1 O/U
so, this basically boils down to the fact that KSU has been great and Kansas has been very lack luster. Snyder has these guys looking like world beaters, with a stout defense allowing only 19pts per, after playing some great offenses in TT, Baylor, Missouri, and Miami (take out the Kent and E. Kentucky games and the average jumps to 27.5 but that’s not bad against those high scoring teams) that alone is reasonably impressive, they are also tied for 12th in turnover margin. KSU has a decent offense and can score when need be, and will be facing one of the worst defenses in the country, so that’s a plus. True the game is at Lawrence but the last game here was a 30pt loss to Oklahoma for the Jayhawks, and before that it was a convincing 11pt loss to Texas Tech (after jumping to a 20pt first quarter lead). Tech is a common opponent; KSU defeated them last week in Lubbock 41-34…. I feel like I’m wasting my time and yours. Last year’s game was in Lawrence as well with KSU being the victor 59-7. Don’t overthink this one. Bet KSU big and call it a day. LOCK
over the last 3 seasons KSU is 14-5 ATS against conference opponents
Over the last 3 seasons KU (against the spread) is 5-14 vs conference opp., 3-12 when playing a team with a winning record, and 2-9 in October games… Lock it in.Comment -
lets gets this. KSU 
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should have my card finalized by noon, also got a few people wanting to know my top 5, so Gonna make that post here after awhile... KSU is a strong candidate to make the list. They have had close games but against good competition. I think this one gets out of hand.Comment -
Illinois vs Purdue: Purdue +4.5
ILL (30.7 / 17.7) 6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Purdue (30.2 / 21.0) 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-1-2 O/U
As I have said from day 1… Illinois is a bunch of pretenders. That said… Purdue isn’t great so this may be a good match-up. Let’s check the facts.
The offenses are mirror images, evenly balance putting up ~200 on the ground and in the air. Illinois has the better defense, allowing 60yards a game and 4 pts., less. Everyone is familiar with Illinois’ ups and downs, beating 3 consecutive teams by 3, putting up a sub-par performance against Indiana, and then losing easily to OHST. The Boilermakers have been going in the opposite direction however (sort-of) well let me rephrase it. I feel that they are starting to get a little more rhythm offensively and the defense isn’t terrible. They beat Minnesota easily (who hasn’t?) and they played a good game against PSU which I think is encouraging. This should be a game where home-field advantage plays a pretty significant roll, since the only time Illinois has left home was to play lowly 1-6 Indiana. Not only momentum but history sides with Purdue as well.
“Illinois, which has been outscored 104-27 during a three-game skid at Ross-Ade Stadium dating to 2003, had dropped five straight meetings with Purdue overall before taking the most recent matchup, 44-10 on Oct. 30.”-ESPN.com
another stat working against them is their 1-6 record ATS as 3.5-10pt favorites over the last 3 seasons.
I don’t think you can confidently play Purdue here but if you’re dead set on playing this game I would lean towards Purdue + the points
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Just wanted to say your the man spladle...glad I found a few of your threads!Comment -
Thanks DOM, just trying to get some information out, so we can all make some $$$$$$$
2 more breakdowns then Im diggin into team totals, then making my card.. pretty excited.
EDIT***
lol sigh just saw these requested
Maryland +17.5, USC +9, Fresno St + 11, and Utah St -6.
so 6 more... then off to team total land... and final cardComment -
East Carolina at Navy
ECU (22.2 / 34.0) 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS, 1-5 O/U
Navy (31.7 / 29.0) 2-3 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Well this looks to be just a good ole running team playing a passing team. Last year the RUN ruled, winning an easy 41 point decision (76-35) putting up a staggering 521 yards on the ground. But should we expect the same result?
Navy has been scoring 9pts more per game while allowing 5pts less.
Navy’s offense is run-heavy as usual putting up 332 on the ground (4th in FBS) and 105 through the air per game.
ECU’s defense has given up 179 rushing yards per game (allowing over 215 in 4 of 6 games) good for 88th in the FBS
ECU’s offense has done ok moving the ball through the air with the nation’s 17th ranked passing attack (299yrds per game)
Navy counters with the 19th ranked pass defense.
The game is at Navy so that should be in the midshipmen’s favor but I can’t find any compelling stats that suggests you should bet them heavy. They are the better team and they should win, but last year’s game was close before ECU started turning the ball over like crazy in the second half. So I don’t know, Over 64 doesn’t look bad at all. I can easily see Navy scoring in the high 30’s and with a defense giving up 29 points per contest ECU should be able to get on the board… I don’t like any play here really. But if I had to choose one I would say the Over is the play. But only 1 star for the over or for Navy.Comment -
Wake vs Duke: Wake -3****, Ov 59**
Wake (31.7 / 25.0) 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 O/U
Duke (25.0 / 30.2) 3-3 SU 3-3 ATS 1-4 O/U
these are 2 pass-first offenses averaging similar numbers with limited rushing games and pretty strong passing games. Wake is fielding one of their better teams in recent history and the public has noticed. After notching a win over FSU I was confident they might keep it close with VaTech and with an early 10-0 lead I was tooting my own horn a bit, but obviously they weren’t quite ready for that level of competition yet. Duke has looked decent some weekends, squeaking by a bad BC team by 1pt, crushing Tulane, and beating FIU as a road dog. So they have had bright spots but the Wake players have high expectations for this year and after a disappointing game against the Hokies look for them to come out strong here. FSU pummeled Duke, and Wake Forest defeated that same FSU team. Look for them to have a lot of confidence coming in. They have the better offense, scoring 27+ in all but 1 game, and have held opponents to 65 less yards and 5 less points than the Blue Devils. Wake has won the last 2 meetings 54-48 and 45-34 covering the spread in both. If this trend continues look for this to be a reasonably easy cover, and the over might be a play here as well.
of the last 3 games played at Duke (between these 2) all have gone over.
Wake Forrest -3 is a good play (4 star) and over 59 seems good as well (2 star).
USC vs ND: ND -8.5***
USC (30.0 / 23.5) 5-1 SU 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U
ND (32.3 / 21.0) 4-2 SU 3-3 ATS, 2-3-1 O/U
I have 2-$100 bets this year against my friend (a USC homer), we made them preseason, and I have Stanford and ND straight up… going to be the easiest $200 I’ve ever made.
Ok let’s give a little info. ND could easily be 6-0. The loss to USF at home was 100% the result of failing to take care of the ball. They then had a meltdown at the end of the Michigan game, and Denard did go bananas, but since then, they have been the team most of us expected; very talented, with a potent offense and respectable defense. They beat a good MSU team 31-13, snuck by Pitt, crushed Purdue, and crushed AF. Likewise, USC hasn’t looked terrible but they just aren’t as good as their 5-1 record advertises. They got by Minny by 2, Utah by 9, Cuse by 21, got pummeled by ASU, beat Arizona in a shootout and crushed an over-rated California team. So yeah, they have played one good team and have one loss, as they should. The offenses have put up similar numbers (~37yards per game difference in favor of ND) with USC relying a little more on the pass and Notre Dame being pretty well balanced. USC has been giving up less than 100yrds per game on the ground and whether or not they are able to contain Cierre Wood will be a determining factor in this game. If they can, I think Rees and the ND passing game won’t be as effective, but if they can’t, look for a big game against this USC secondary which allows 271yrds through the air per game. USC will need to establish a run game as well; outside of the 363yards they gave up to AF, ND has been very solid against the run. They held a powerful Purdue rushing attack to only 84yards, and MSU to only 29. Well my boss just called and he is on his way over so I am going to wrap this up and take a break from typing.
Notre Dame won last year @ USC 20-16 and has covered the spread the last 2 years. Look for this trend to continue, ND wins by 2TDS. 3 stars. I would also suggest the over but Im not 100% sold on the idea that USC can score. In 3 of their last 4 games, ND has held their opponents to 13 or less.
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so far so good.....lovin the insight...cant wait to see some finals and top plays.....Comment -
good luckComment -
My Card (11 bets locked in so far 2u each)
WVU -14
WVU-Ov 58 (they haven’t gone under 59 since week 1)
NIU-14
NIU-Ov 62 (NIU has never gone under 50, gone under 60 just 2x and gone over 70 in their other 5 games)
OSU -7
Temple -13
Stanford -21
Wisc -9
KSU -11
Wake -3
Nebraska-Ov 56.5 Nebraska has gone under 56.5 in only 2 of 6 games. Minnesota has gone over the total 4 games in a row
Adding
Ark-15.5
TA&M -20.5
Im looking at the following overs/spreads
AF/BSU Ov 64
OU/TT Ov 69.5
Wisc/MSU Ov 49
Wake/Duke Ov 59.5
OSU/Mizz Ov 69
Clemson -10
Rutgers +2
Boise -31
Bama -29
Utep -7Comment -
Maryland vs FSU; Maryland +17**
Maryland (26.5 / 29.8)2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U
FSU (35.0 / 19.8) 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U
the Spread is what? Maryland +17? WHAT?
Let’s ignore the fact that Maryland looks fairly terrible on defense. Giving up 29pts per along with 435 yards of offense. What I want to focus on is the Maryland’s offense vs the FSU defense. And well both teams vs anyone else this year.
1.) the one team to beat Maryland by more than 17 was Temple (31), in a dominating performance.
Other notable losses were to (WVU-6, GaTech-5, and Clemson-11) and CJ BROWN IS A BEAST at QB so expect more points!
2.) If anyone watched that game last week, you know this is a different offensive unit with Brown at QB they looked great against Clemson, the Tigers had no answer.
3.) FSU isn’t good enough to blow them out, they played OU close but then followed that up with losses to Wake and Clemson, before beating Duke in their most recent game 41-16 (but its Duke, they are always terrible). FSU has a good D but with this hurry up offense and CJ Brown at QB its going to be hard to keep them from putting points on the board.
4.) Maryland is giving up 150 yards more on Defense and averaging 30 yards less on offense. (Discouraging) But I see this game being similar to the Miami, WVU, or Clemson games where they looked pretty decent, putting up at least 468 yards of offense in each of those.
In the last 2 meetings FSU has won by 14 @ Maryland, and 3 @ home. I don’t doubt they win this game but 17 is too much. Maryland is desperate to win and will be giving their all after a near upset of 8th ranked Clemson. ………They can’t stop FSU from scoring because let’s face it, their D is terrible. But there is a good chance they can be competitive and I expect this game to stay within 10points. 2 star pick.Comment -
When are you planning on putting your top 5 list?Comment -
Thanks for going over those last few for meComment -
My top 5 right now would be
Temple
NIU
WVU
Stanford (you gotta ride the gravy train)
Wake -3
(If you can bet overs and spreads in the same parlay on your book. the WVU over will hit fo sho)
Im going to look at a lot of other games, but will probably just post ones that I feel there is a big edge in.Comment -
I can do overs and spreads... I am looking at the best 4 team parlay over all, including over/under or not, what do you think...Comment -
And, are the top 5 in order as you have them listed, or no? Sorry for so many post, I just really respect your opinion...Comment -
of the list on here I dont see how the green ones cant hit.... on the pink ones Im not 100% confident but everything points to cover, yes I left the Stanford game on the not 100% side but thats because Im never 100% with them, but I havent lost a bet with em all year so Im hangin with it,
WVU -14
WVU-Ov 58 (they haven’t gone under 59 since week 1)
NIU-14
NIU-Ov 62 (NIU has never gone under 50, gone under 60 just 2x and gone over 70 in their other 5 games)
OSU -7
Temple -13
Wake -3
Stanford -21
Wisc -9
KSU -11
Nebraska-Ov 56.5 Nebraska has gone under 56.5 in only 2 of 6 games. Minnesota has gone over the total 4 games in a row
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Alright here are my 3 parlay bets for the week along with my other 2 favorites. Please check the parlay's as they are primarily based on your rankings and commentary, and tell me if you would change/rearrange them in any way. After your feed back, I will lock them in...
Parlay 1: 3 Units
WVU -14
Temp -13.5
Wake -3 (thanks for reviewing this one for me I liked it initially, now I love it)
OSU -7 ( I thought about putting a&m -20.5 here and this on in parlay 3. What are your thoughts?)
Parlay 2: 2 Units
Stan -21
KSU-11
Ark-16
WVU ov 58.5
Parlay 3: 1 Unit
T a&m -20.5 (do you like the NIU over better than this?)
NIU -14 (Of this pick, the NIU over, and a&m which two should go here?)
Wisc -8.5
Neb ov 56.5
2 Favorite Bets: (my saftey bets, if there is such a thing)
#1: 6 units
WVU ov 58.5
#2: 6 units
Wake - 3
What do you think of this? Especially the parlays, feel free to rearrange any thing in any way... Should I only make one 6 unit bet? If so what would you make it?Comment -
Love the picks man .... Love them !!! The only one that scares me is the NIU pick ... remeber how we both got screwed by them 3 weeks ago @ Central Michigan .... grrrr ... I know Buffalo is a weak team but still NIU is ranked 101th in total defense ... myabe its just me being superstitious but I'll pass on this one ...
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I'm a bit surprised you're not on Arkansas this week, coming off a bye vs a really bad Ole MIss team that will probably loose its HC after this game, although I think I'm missing something here cause I first saw the line at -17 and now it went down to -15.5 despite Ole Miss loosing 2 key defensive players last week vs Bama " Mississippi defensive end Wayne Dorsey and cornerback Marcus Temple are out for the season after getting injured in Saturday's 52-7 loss to No. 2 Alabama.Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt said the two were "good captains who have done a lot for us." Nutt said both players had surgery on Sunday morning in Jackson, Miss." - ESPN
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Also why you not 100% of Kansas St this week ? There only going against the 120th defense in the country LOL I'll take that match-up any time 21th D# vs 120th D# even in an instate rivalry and in a sandwich situation between a win over Texas Tech and an upcoming game vs Oklahoma. I think they are too well coached to be in a letdown or look-ahead spot here.
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Also have a strong feeling about Alabama -29. Tennessee lost last weak to LSU by 38 points playing at home and getting all rallyed up about that game but coming up way short at the end. Now they travel to Bama and play a D# at least as good as LSU's if not a bit better without their starting QB and #1 WR. Bama will go into they bye week after this game and have enough time to prepare their big game vs LSU so I hope they will finish this game and also at least try to match the 31 points LSU put on Tennessee. 29 is a lot of points but when u got the #1 D and Tenn playing with its 2 string QB and you got a beast like Richardson a potential Heisman Winner I say they will get it done.Comment -
So why is the Arkansas line dropping??? I figured it would head the other way.Comment -
What do you guys think about Aub +22 right now after LSU just lost Mathieu and Ware for saturday? I was thinking about the game anyways but I think I will now put a small amount on it. Still kinda fishyComment -
I keep trying to respond from my computer but it says the message is too short?Comment -
i like most of your plays, great write ups
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Responding on my phone... so annoying ... damned computer... I am on Arkansas I just forgot to lock them in within first 11... I added them under "adding"... yes niu let me down against cmu, but they have a nasty offense and after crushing back to back opponents including a decent wmu team... I have faith.... not 100% sold on the ksu game due to their low average margin of victory + all the factors you listed. Don't get me wrong, I did bet on them so I do have some confidence....I also like the bama game and will probably end up taking it before Saturday.
Dom : I can't argue with the play. they have beat everyone besides Oregon and Mississippi state by 26+ but 22 is a lot of.points especially while missing key players against a tough team. I won't be playing it but good luck.
Fanatic ; I think your golden. I like the niu over more than the A&M spread but after glancing back at what I wrote on A&M I locked in in for 2u... I think you're safe either way. I hope you win. Good luck
Sorry for any and all typos... phone typing sucks.Comment -
thoughts on Lsu/Anburn game spladle ? seems to much to cover for LSUComment -
Fade Brahmabull - he loves LSU!Comment -
I really don't know a whole lot about either team, but after looking at the numbers, ULL should have no problem covering this spread. And I've seen WKU play this year. They stink. I'm not putting a ton on it, but it seems worth an average size bet. Go Ragin' Cajuns!!!
NickComment -
lol boss came in right when I started and gave me about 10minutes worth of ish to do, give me a second to get started, They will be brief but Im sure I can convince myself one way or the other fairly quickly.Comment -
LSU vs Auburn: LSU -22 and Over 47 (2 stars each)
This seems like a brief summary will do but who knows? LSU has killed everyone and covered weekly. Now missing 2 key players do we expect the trend to continue? Before reading anything I am assuming it WILL continue, but I will check some facts just to make sure.
Ok several people have probably done more research on this than me but I will just throw out my 2 cents. LSU has faced better offenses and has murdered them all. We have seen this “new QB” thing play out everywhere over the past few weeks and it never ends good. (Sorry if I’m rambling, I am just kind of going off feel here.) I think with Auburn scoring big the first few weeks we got a false sense of “hey they are an offensive juggernaut” but in their last 3 games their highest output has been 17pts. RED FLAG
Also, I think very little love is given to an LSU offense that has put up 35+ in 6 out of 7 games. Let the rambling continue. No matter what you say, there is no way you will convince me that the LSU Defense falls well below the defenses of Florida-Arkansas-South Carolina, simple by removing 1 player (Mathieu)… no matter how good he is. That being said, I do not like Auburns chances.
Offensively this new QB for Auburn is loving the spot-light and saying this is what he has always dreamed of, and I don’t doubt him. You always dream that you are in some situation you aren’t prepared for and against all odds you come out on top, but it’s called a dream for a reason. This D has crushed superior offenses with experienced QB’s, the kid is simply going to make mistakes and the more he makes the less confidence he’ll have.
For LSU they will come out and score. The subtraction of Ware hurts, but they have other running backs. Ford will see an increased work load, and Jefferson’s always good for some yards, I don’t see Ware really hindering this offensive attack, especially against this soft defense. They did hold Florida Atlantic, South Carolina, and FLA to less than 15pts each but meh… how did they do against teams with a pulse? Oh yeah, everyone else scored 34+ on them… Now decide if you are going to group LSU in with: Florida Atlantic, an inconsistent SC offense, and a beat a Florida team with that joker at QB….. or… Clemson/MissSt/USU/ARK I actually think LSU has just as strong a scoring attack as Clemson and Arkansas, and obviously a better one than USU and MissST. Im not going to argue too much on this, but I could see this score being 38-14 or so. I actually like the Over 47 more than LSU to cover 22.
(LSU is good for 35+ and I think will top 40. Auburn on the other hand should be able to sneak in a score or 2) yeah take the over.
(looking deeper I see the home team has won each of the last 2 years, LSU by 21 in 09, 41 total points scored, and Auburn by 7 last year, 41 total points scored.) 2 unders the last 2 years, but I just like the trend to break here with LSU having a much more explosive offense. Last think Im saying on it
38-14 final. LSU wins by 24+ and covers both the over and the spread. Don’t lock it in, but its my opinion.Comment
