How many people on here still.....

spladle08 · 10-12-11, 05:07 AM

I'm new but I have been giving it a shot, still learning but don't wanna be one of the 20 post guys with nothing to say hope Im not included in that demographic but I might be anyways http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...write-ups.html

CBASS · 10-12-11, 05:15 AM

Originally posted by spladle08

I'm new but I have been giving it a shot, still learning but don't wanna be one of the 20 post guys with nothing to say hope Im not included in that demographic but I might be anyways http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...write-ups.html

You are great Spladle! You give great feedback and your work does not go unnoticed! You fit the 'solid capper' demographic buddy.

CBASS · 10-12-11, 05:16 AM

I actually meant '20 threads a day' and not '20 posts a day'. My mistake.

Love The Action · 10-12-11, 06:00 AM

Not a bad post...there is too much boogie man talk about line traps, etc. then actual analysis of the stats and situational angles which should make up the majority of ncaaf capping. Line movement in ncaaf and nfl is a bit overrated because the markets are so big and heavily bet that money comes in on both sides moving lines back and forth. Line movement is best used in smaller markets like hockey imho, but still has some applicability in ncaaf and nfl under the right circumstances. People just dont know what those are and employ line movement plays too much...

wal66 · 10-12-11, 06:37 AM

CBass, I hear what you are saying but it'll never change. Actually drawing attention to it will probably only make it worse. You have some guys (maybe kids) who are pretending and you have enthusiast who are trying (grasping) to be a big deal.

Paying attention to line movement can be a valuable resource but as mentioned already you need some additional support to go along with it. Sure it can be a clear indicator that large dollars are coming in from "sharps" but even they lose.

It really is no different though than all the threads about "LOCKS" and "my sister in blowing the lockerroom attendant and I have inside info", all these things get annoying but are best just ignored. Sure, read them cause sometimes they are good for a laugh but don't respond to them cause that only encourages others to contribute.

guy Fawkes · 10-12-11, 06:39 AM

I'm whole-heartedly with you on this one CBass, but you reminded me of a story I just have to share:

I was about 6 years old one father's day and I visited my great-grandfather. He was the gambler in the family and actually did have have the files and folders scattered about and would do his research (pre-google days). He, my father and I went down to the local Eagle's Club where a guy would take action and stay all Sunday to collect and give out bets. The guy was probably all of 70 years old, shook constantly and looked like he had a foot in the grave. You would hear the same things in person from every dejected gambler in the place. Everyone thought the poor half-dead bookie had a direct line to insider information from NFL players and Vegas casino pit-bosses on how to place a line and "steal" peoples money. Even at 6 years old I knew that was a load of horseshit. The guy probably made 5% juice off of the 10 sad old men sitting at the bar watching the games.

What you see at work here is simple intermittent positive reinforcement. When looking at a spread (assuming a 1/2 point) one bet will win, one bet will lose. You can dig up research, quote statistics and do a whole days work capping one or two games and you'll stand a pretty good chance to win and your record will reflect it. You can also find false premises to bet upon and win half the time. Gambler's fallacy and the "near-wins" tend to bring reinforcement to people who don't want to dig in and do the work.

Personally I'm a huge statistics geek, so I like doing the research just as much if not more than watching the actual games.

spladle08 · 10-12-11, 12:51 PM

Thanks CBASS and agree... and Nice story Fawkes, we have an old retired oilman out here who takes action and its the same thing, people claim he gets info we don't so he moves the line a point in either direction because he is THAT sure of the outcome. (my sisters husband swears its completely predetermined down to the point) Anyways we got a couple months left lets make all the profit we can.

I usually just do NBA after football with a little College Basketball, but this year I'm gonna have to go full throttle into NCAAB, I hope it's as easy to cap as all the people tend to think. BOL guys

guy Fawkes · 10-12-11, 12:58 PM

I usually give NCAAB a couple weeks to get into the flow of everything. Make it all during the season and give it all back in the sweet 16

BernardMadoff · 10-12-11, 01:17 PM

Do you know what capping games mean? Nobody on here actually caps games.

dozer · 10-12-11, 03:49 PM

if you believe that injuries, streaks, weather, home field, matchups matter much....then you already are a loser long term. there are no angles imo other than line movement.

i dont have losing seasons, EVER. This has been my mindset for the last 20 years or so. sure, i lose my games, but they are far outweighed by my wins.

I can sit down look at a game (while the team names are covered up) and look at just the line, the amount of wagers on each team, and the linemovement and tell you the winner over 50% gauranteed. if that is not an angle then im not sure what is. over 1000 games I have no doubt I will be well over 500 correct, with a good possibility over 600.

that's just me. everyone has their own thing, but if it aint broke dont fix it.

wal66 · 10-12-11, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by dozer

I can sit down look at a game (while the team names are covered up) and look at just the line, the amount of wagers on each team, and the linemovement and tell you the winner over 50% gauranteed. i

You do realize you could write favorite on one side of a coin and dog on the other side of a coin and hit that same 50% mark right?

There are guys out there that track and understand how to judge movement but it certainly is not an exact science. Can they be successful doing it, absolutely but so can guys that understand how to use stats, injuries, weather and so forth.

SOUP · 10-12-11, 04:19 PM

I prefer the judging of line movements as well.

sandman0713 · 10-12-11, 04:57 PM

i don't even have a set style when looking at games. if it between teams that i know well then i just look over the stat's. the problem with those games is that i look at the game...usc\cal for instance...and i already know who i like to win ats. i then usually end up looking for stat's to back up my feeling...though there have been times the numbers have taken me off of a game. i do know from many years experience that i can hold above 50% on just the big games, but not a big $ gain for the season. the games i do great on are the kent state type teams that i don't watch or care about. i go solely on numbers and where the matchup advantages appear to be, and i would guess those are winners at least 70% of the time. i have developed a style all my own though over the years, and it varies greatly from sport to sport. it works for me and has kept me in the game for almost 20 years now. i will never slam anyone else for their style, and wish them all nothing but the best. just give me some idea as to why you like a certain team whenever you create a thread though please. i mean if you only bet teams that wear red, if you use a numeric system that you translate somehow from the team names, whatever it is...just give me some clue as to why i should "take michigan today big and thank me later". some of these threads have nothing but the name of the thread repeated in the first post. thread name, "take michigan big"...first post, "thank me later"...garbage that is helpful to nobody. people may think my style is garbage as well, but at least i limit it to one thread per week created. now i do feel like the ohio state\michigan type threads are helpful, where everyone gives their thoughts on a game...but we end up with about 5 of them for each game.

nj1035 · 10-12-11, 05:14 PM

When I first started I tried to cap games, but I stunk. I lost all the time. Now I pretty much just read line movement and this is the first season I'm actually ahead. I find a lot of the games I pick based on line movement I actually would have faded previously. So basically I'm reading line movement and fading myself and it's working out well.

Just my .02.

PaperTrail07 · 10-12-11, 05:35 PM

CBASS---angles.....LOL this is not geometery................find a guy that picks winners and tail..............for example.....follow the leaders of the beat the prick...........they seem to have a good view of whats going on this season...AM I WRONG HERE?

wal66 · 10-12-11, 05:44 PM

Sandman, the reason for the teams you know well not doing as well as say the small market teams like in the MAC is probably due to bias more than anything. I'm a firm believer that ANYTHING we can do to take our bias (even sub-conscious) out of the equation is beneficial. Most of us can't do this though and that leads to bad decisions. Even the teams we know the best and bet against or on without thinking our opinion has been influenced often still is.

Still though whatever works is best. If it's capping games, reading line movement or letting a Octopus to choose which team, if it is working ride it till it ain't working.

CBASS · 10-12-11, 06:15 PM

Everyone made some solid points here.

I was mainly referring to the ones who only make their decisions based on 'line movement', but have no clue as to why there was movement, etc... Basically what I'm saying is, LM is only one aspect. There are many cappers on here who know WHY the line moved in a particular matchup or why the line opened at a suspicious number.

For example, many people liked Mississippi State + the short number vs. LSU. Even though many on here knew that LSU was the play. There were several who bet Miss. St. simply because of the ever fvcking popular 'LINE MOVEMENT'.

Dozer, you are the exception buddy. You have proven that and I give you much props.

Again, I am not criticizing those who have their own methods for capping games. I am actually encouraging them to share what they know.

I am going to take Wal's advice and just keep it moving with regards to this subject. I hope everyone has a very profitable weekend.

CBASS · 10-12-11, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by guy Fawkes

I'm whole-heartedly with you on this one CBass, but you reminded me of a story I just have to share:

I was about 6 years old one father's day and I visited my great-grandfather. He was the gambler in the family and actually did have have the files and folders scattered about and would do his research (pre-google days). He, my father and I went down to the local Eagle's Club where a guy would take action and stay all Sunday to collect and give out bets. The guy was probably all of 70 years old, shook constantly and looked like he had a foot in the grave. You would hear the same things in person from every dejected gambler in the place. Everyone thought the poor half-dead bookie had a direct line to insider information from NFL players and Vegas casino pit-bosses on how to place a line and "steal" peoples money. Even at 6 years old I knew that was a load of horseshit. The guy probably made 5% juice off of the 10 sad old men sitting at the bar watching the games.

What you see at work here is simple intermittent positive reinforcement. When looking at a spread (assuming a 1/2 point) one bet will win, one bet will lose. You can dig up research, quote statistics and do a whole days work capping one or two games and you'll stand a pretty good chance to win and your record will reflect it. You can also find false premises to bet upon and win half the time. Gambler's fallacy and the "near-wins" tend to bring reinforcement to people who don't want to dig in and do the work.

Personally I'm a huge statistics geek, so I like doing the research just as much if not more than watching the actual games.

That was a great story G Fawkes!

I feel the same way about doing the research as much as watching the games.

CBASS · 10-12-11, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

CBASS---angles.....LOL this is not geometery................find a guy that picks winners and tail..............for example.....follow the leaders of the beat the prick...........they seem to have a good view of whats going on this season...AM I WRONG HERE?

Why the f\*\*k would I want to follow someone else? I bet my $ based on my own decisions. You would know how to win more than those you 'follow' if you knew how to find those 'angles'. I believe you can buddy. I would never tail anyone when I can do better than them if I do my homework. In other words, believe in yourself and cap your own games. You are probably a solid capper, but needs to trust in one's self.

CBASS · 10-12-11, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by dozer

if you believe that injuries, streaks, weather, home field, matchups matter much....then you already are a loser long term. there are no angles imo other than line movement.

i dont have losing seasons, EVER. This has been my mindset for the last 20 years or so. sure, i lose my games, but they are far outweighed by my wins.

I can sit down look at a game (while the team names are covered up) and look at just the line, the amount of wagers on each team, and the linemovement and tell you the winner over 50% gauranteed. if that is not an angle then im not sure what is. over 1000 games I have no doubt I will be well over 500 correct, with a good possibility over 600.

that's just me. everyone has their own thing, but if it aint broke dont fix it.

Just so you know, all of those are angles that determine the 'line movement'. Question is, do you know which ones are causing the movement? j/s

The Bet Master · 10-12-11, 06:32 PM

I agree. I don't care if all the "Sharp" money is on the other side, I go with the pick I think is right, if you don't feel that you are the "sharp" one you shouldn't be betting anyways.

CBASS · 10-12-11, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by SOUP

I prefer the judging of line movements as well.

There is nothing wrong with that. Can you account for the movement though? Do you use any other angles as well?

CBASS · 10-12-11, 06:36 PM

Originally posted by The Bet Master

I agree. I don't care if all the "Sharp" money is on the other side, I go with the pick I think is right, if you don't feel that you are the "sharp" one you shouldn't be betting anyways.

Great point!

fishmonger · 10-13-11, 12:12 AM

I read a a lot of game logs. Stats can be misleading because of garbage time and FCS teams in the mix. Injuries are key especially on the o-line and d-line. I do look into line movements and "weird" lines like Missouri -3 when they played K state but use that to spot games to further research. Went 0-4 last week. But it's a marathon. Everyone one has their own way to determine plays. I just hate when people tell others that their play is stupid and square. I feel like some people don't respect others picks no matter how they came up with it.

We are here to compare and bounce ideas off one another. I like it when some one else has a different opinion on a game and gives reasons for their pick. It shows a different prospective. We can get tunnel visioned on what we think. Bashing picks and gloating after a game helps no one but will always be part of this forum. Everyone wins and everyone losses. How you handle yourself after a win determines what class of handicapper you are. Everyone losses the same. Bad Beats.

guy Fawkes · 10-13-11, 12:22 AM

Originally posted by fishmonger

I read a a lot of game logs. Stats can be misleading because of garbage time and FCS teams in the mix. Injuries are key especially on the o-line and d-line. I do look into line movements and "weird" lines like Missouri -3 when they played K state but use that to spot games to further research. Went 0-4 last week. But it's a marathon. Everyone one has their own way to determine plays. I just hate when people tell others that their play is stupid and square. I feel like some people don't respect others picks no matter how they came up with it.

We are here to compare and bounce ideas off one another. I like it when some one else has a different opinion on a game and gives reasons for their pick. It shows a different prospective. We can get tunnel visioned on what we think. Bashing picks and gloating after a game helps no one but will always be part of this forum. Everyone wins and everyone losses. How you handle yourself after a win determines what class of handicapper you are. Everyone losses the same. Bad Beats.

Very thoughtful post Fish! I appreciate your ideas here and particular the thought that "It's a marathon." I think a lot of us lose that perspective at times - I certainly have this week.

I still hate your avatar

fishmonger · 10-13-11, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by guy Fawkes

I still hate your avatar

You have your opinion. Just don't call it stupid avatar or call it a square avatar.

CBASS · 10-13-11, 02:28 AM

Originally posted by fishmonger

I read a a lot of game logs. Stats can be misleading because of garbage time and FCS teams in the mix. Injuries are key especially on the o-line and d-line. I do look into line movements and "weird" lines like Missouri -3 when they played K state but use that to spot games to further research. Went 0-4 last week. But it's a marathon. Everyone one has their own way to determine plays. I just hate when people tell others that their play is stupid and square. I feel like some people don't respect others picks no matter how they came up with it.

We are here to compare and bounce ideas off one another. I like it when some one else has a different opinion on a game and gives reasons for their pick. It shows a different prospective. We can get tunnel visioned on what we think. Bashing picks and gloating after a game helps no one but will always be part of this forum. Everyone wins and everyone losses. How you handle yourself after a win determines what class of handicapper you are. Everyone losses the same. Bad Beats.

This is a great post. I completely agree Fishmonger.