sandman week 7

rainmaker82 · 10-11-11, 10:16 AM

I agree 100% I mean if Idaho took Virginia to OT how can they hang with Ga. Tech. How do you think the Pokes will do this week? As a Sooner fan myself, Dec 3rd is starting to look like a huge day here in Oklahoma. I think the Pokes work Texas over, no way Texas can stop that O. I know states D is always the question mark, but they have played really well this year.

sandman0713 · 10-11-11, 10:24 AM

miami ohio -3 for 4 units: first thing i thought when i saw this was that i am about to get hosed, so i won't go overboard on it. i see where people popped the under when it came out, and that i can understand. what i can't understand is how there are people betting on kent and moving that line. may be trouble, but i am taking it now. last time out against n illinois kent managed 70 total yards...lol...that can't be right. 4 of the last 5 games they didn't get over 200 yards...and the one they did was like 280 against s bama. i am not looking any further, and i am actually gonna check around and bet this now. can someone tell me please why this line is 3? i mean is the other half of kent state's team coming back from suspension or injury or something like that this week? vin turned me on to miamo ohio last week, and they looked pretty good. they can move the ball and score some at least. i mean the way it looks to me right now, 2 tds and this game is covered.

sandman0713 · 10-11-11, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by rainmaker82

I agree 100% I mean if Idaho took Virginia to OT how can they hang with Ga. Tech. How do you think the Pokes will do this week? As a Sooner fan myself, Dec 3rd is starting to look like a huge day here in Oklahoma. I think the Pokes work Texas over, no way Texas can stop that O. I know states D is always the question mark, but they have played really well this year.

i am worried bro...lol. being an ostate fan means you are always worried and expecting the worst though. i think they match up a lot better with the texas style of o than they do against spreads honestly. pokes are pretty sturdy up front, but the secondary is where the questions are. that is funny since the secondary all returned and the front 7 are new...but it is true. if we can score we should win. this will be the biggest and fastest d we have faced so far though, so we will see. people don't realize that we have to run the ball against texas for the o to work well. things have changed, and this o depends on the run and tight ends much more than when holgorsen was here. hope we can make it to bedlam though...that would be awesome.

sandman0713 · 10-11-11, 11:02 AM

c florida over 44 for 3 units: i think a lot are seeing the defensive stat's by these 2 and jumping on the under. the d stat's are actually pretty incredible for these teams, but i still think it goes over fairly easy. both of these teams have moved the ball really well, but both have had serious turnover issues. turnovers often mean a short field and points for the opposing o, and it is obvious we will see several turnovers in this game. i think if you look at what ucf has done against comparable teams then you have to assume they are good for scoring AT LEAST 17. smu is scoring against everyone, and the fact that ucf shut down some really bad o's doesn't mean much to me. 44 is way low here, and i think it goes over by the 3rd.

sandman0713 · 10-11-11, 11:12 AM

ok...those 3 for now. i will find a few more later as lines move i am sure. there are a couple i am really looking at, but don't want to call them out before i decide. the line is moving in my favor in both cases, so no hurry. gonna start kicking the weeknight games around tonight or tomm. gonna be sad as i am thinking i may have to bet against my trojans...lol. grew up out there in santa cruz before moving here to okie, and i have loved southern cal since i could walk.

rainmaker82 · 10-11-11, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by sandman0713

i am worried bro...lol. being an ostate fan means you are always worried and expecting the worst though. i think they match up a lot better with the texas style of o than they do against spreads honestly. pokes are pretty sturdy up front, but the secondary is where the questions are. that is funny since the secondary all returned and the front 7 are new...but it is true. if we can score we should win. this will be the biggest and fastest d we have faced so far though, so we will see. people don't realize that we have to run the ball against texas for the o to work well. things have changed, and this o depends on the run and tight ends much more than when holgorsen was here. hope we can make it to bedlam though...that would be awesome.

lol. i know what you mean. I am an OU fan, but not an OSU hater, I think it's great that they are both doing well. I agree Texas D will be the fastest you've seen, but get Randle going, protect Weeden, and it's game over. I think another key will be stopping the run of Texas and putting pressure on the QB combo. I think the offense will be too much though, and OSU will win something like 45-28. Good luck with your pick. I like the write up's.

sandman0713 · 10-12-11, 04:18 PM

ok...weeknight games. had myself all talked into taking usc, but i can't. they are my co-favorite team, but just the fact that they are usc promises value in the spread any time you bet against them. i feel both of these d's do much better against this kind of run\playaction o than they do against the spread. i have seen usc when they can't run the ball and it is not pretty. whatever though...i just really feel these are very even teams right now on both sides of the ball overall. i feel like the advantage of being at home and the points are the only value here ats. i do like the under as well in this game...under 58. i think both teams will have a problem running the ball to set up everything else...and both of these guys do need to run the ball. i think the number will be real close here, but under with something like 28-24.
cal +3 for 2 units and under 58 for 1 unit.

as far as the air force game, i will admit i didn't dig too deep. the fact that the sdsu d gave up over 400 yards rushing to army pretty much sealed it for me. these guys have no chance of shutting down the air force running o...and if those guys can do whatever they want on o, you are in deep trouble. nothing else matters as much as that right there to me, though the fact they are at home helps too. i gotta take the under here as well. i think in the first half it may look like it is going over 59, but as air force really begins to dominate the game it will slow down. i just feel like the fact that it is a blowout and sdsu just wants to go home will keep in under that total barely.
air force -7 for 1 unit and under 59 for 1 unit.

huge game for sjsu and hawaii off the island...i am thinking the points. just looking at the names of these 2 teams, and the spread being only 6 points, should tell you something. hawaii and the over is the automatic bet for almost every gambler there is. i still can't get myself off the over, as i feel sjsu needs to score to stay in it. shot in the dark on a game i won't watch.
sjsu +6 and over 55 for 1 unit each.

as you can see, i don't care too much for these weeknight games and rarely bet over 1 unit on them. going back to capping the games i will make my money on saturday. gl all.

sandman0713 · 10-12-11, 07:07 PM

penn state under 41 for 4 units: i hate to just keep riding something like this. odds are that it is going to go over sometime this year, but until then i see no reason not to take this with full confidence. i made all the points last week, and maybe the week before. the penn state d is just dominating people right now, about as much so as i can remember a team doing actually. i mean to have no offensive production at all, and to just leave your d out there every game, and they just keep shutting people down. iowa managed 3, and i feel they are a fair comparison to purdue...and i feel the purdue d is just as good as iowa, give or take a fg...lol. i am sure this will go over one of these weeks and i will be out 4 units...but until it does, or until they adjust these totals, it is almost an autoplay.

sandman0713 · 10-12-11, 07:26 PM

w michigan -2 for 5 units: i posted a couple of weeks ago about this team when i took them to beat uconn...they are legit. they have been toe to toe with michigan and illinois this year, and beat uconn 2 weeks ago on the road. before the uconn game i had not watched them play and had just used stat's. they are good though, and i think they do whatever they want on o against a pretty terrible n illinois d. this line is only so low because people recognize n illinois from the weeknight games they have played the last several years and assume they are good...i did. wins over cal poly and kent...maybe the worst team in football...inflate their record to 3-3 and make them seem respectable. feel free to chime in if you see something i don't here...i am not a big follower of the mac...lol. it just looks the wrong team is favored again here based on perception.

sandman0713 · 10-12-11, 07:45 PM

byu +2 for 3 units: last one for now. i think byu is starting to roll, and it is time to get on board until they get some respect in the lines. they are one of those teams i like where things are very clear, if they can run the ball they will score and look good on o. if you have seen the osu d this year then you know byu will be able to run the ball. the osu win over zona last week doesn't mean much to me at all. that team is in complete turmoil, and i think anyone else in the pac 12 would have destroyed them last week. osu is pretty terrible this year, and there is way more talent on that byu team than people know. a lot of people were calling them out preseason to go undefeated. i just feel that talent-wise this is a mismatch, and maybe some still focusing on that drubbing byu took at utah.

ok...that is all for now. i may add one on gameday like last week if the weeknight games go well. i am also kind of starting to like fresno in a late game saturday as well. i will just wait and see how things go though, and if i bet it i will post it along with my twisted reasoning. gl all this weekend.

sandman0713 · 10-12-11, 08:00 PM

ok...just to put this all together.

thursday:
cal +3 for 2 units
under 58 for 1 unit

air force -7 for 1 unit
under 59 for 1 unit

friday:
sjsu +6 for 1 unit
over 55 for 1 unit

saturday:
ga tech -8 for 3 units
miami ohio -3 for 4 units
c fla over 44 for 3 units
penn state under 41 for 4 units
w michigan -2 for 5 units
byu +2 for 3 units

gonna go and bet the ones i haven't tonight and tomm. like i said before, my lines i bet may be different than what i post. i just use the sbr lines at the time i write these up, and i will never claim a win with a line i didn't post. this thread is just kind of a tracking tool for me this year to see my % ats...and i feel like i look at the games closer and take more care in betting with the added pressure of posting my plays in public. anyways...good luck this weekend guys.

sandman0713 · 10-15-11, 01:33 AM

Originally posted by sandman0713

ok...just to put this all together.

thursday:
cal +3 for 2 units
under 58 for 1 unit

air force -7 for 1 unit
under 59 for 1 unit

friday:
sjsu +6 for 1 unit
over 55 for 1 unit

saturday:
ga tech -8 for 3 units
miami ohio -3 for 4 units
c fla over 44 for 3 units
penn state under 41 for 4 units
w michigan -2 for 5 units
byu +2 for 3 units

gonna go and bet the ones i haven't tonight and tomm. like i said before, my lines i bet may be different than what i post. i just use the sbr lines at the time i write these up, and i will never claim a win with a line i didn't post. this thread is just kind of a tracking tool for me this year to see my % ats...and i feel like i look at the games closer and take more care in betting with the added pressure of posting my plays in public. anyways...good luck this weekend guys.

can't believe it is halfway thru the season. i am done picking the side and total of the weeknight games, unless i just see one that i like. said i wanted to see if i could get close to 70% when i started posting here, but it will never be close if i keep up these 50-50 weeknight games. 38-32-1 now and +11.6 units. i will not cry too much as long as i have a + in front of units, but this is not where i want to be. gotta start taking it serious and stop all the bs. btw...anyone else think the hawaii game tonight was the worst ever? these teams should both get at least a 1 year ban from thursday and friday night games...lol. gl tomm all.

CBASS · 10-15-11, 03:03 AM

GL to you this weekend Sandman!

sandman0713 · 10-15-11, 06:18 PM

thanks cbass. 4-2 so far puts me at 42-34-1 and +16 units. don't normally do this, but i am betting the night games.

oklahoma -36 for 3 units
wash state over 64.5 for 2 units
idaho +1 for 4 units
tulsa -21 for 2 units
fresno +3 for 4 units

gl all...i am out.

sandman0713 · 10-16-11, 07:39 AM

last night was one of those nights that makes you just want to stop...almost...lol. had a good day, so i decided to throw all of my winnings for the season on the night games...lost half of it. tulsa fumbles at the 1 when running in the td to cover...ou acts like they are trying NOT to cover...and i watched the idaho game and still can't tell you wtf happened there. that is how it goes tho i suppose. hope everyone else had a better day than i did...tho i imagine by looking at the scores a lot of people got bent over. 43-38-1 for ncaa and +8.6 units. 1-1 nfl and -.2 units. nfl today...

pittsburgh over 40 for 2 units: pitt has scored on the average and bad d's they have faced, but have struggled against the good d's to score. let's be real...the jags d is not real good so far this year, so why aren't we expecting pitt to score some? i get the jags o has been bad...pitt has given up 17 per game tho, and there are some really bad o's averaged in there.

indi +7 for 2 units: these guys have played pretty well the last few weeks, and they have come really close to getting a win. at 0-5, i think they rally and try to get it done today. cinci record inflated with wins over terrible teams...it is still cinci.

skins +3 for 3 units: feel like i am hopping on the sucker train here...i rode it last night tho and i am comfortable there now i guess. people want to hop on the eagles and move these spreads every week, but i think i gotta go the other way until they actually show it on the field. skins should be pumped at home and feeling really good for this one. yeah they have wins against bad teams...but phili has their only win over a bad team, along with a couple of losses to garbage teams. like i said...prolly a sucker, but i will take the points.

green bay -14 for 3 units: lot of points to lay in nfl, but i think the right play. green bay been winning games...by a lot. st louis been losing games...by a lot. not your normal game where the teams are fairly even like most nfl games. gb at home wins big.

49ers under 46 for 3 units: niners going to struggle to run the ball in this one, and that is going to keep them from moving the ball. this is my favorite team, but we don't blow people up like we did last week. best d detroit has faced so far...they have been starting really slow...niners go back to being the low scoring niners we all know...46 too many points.

that is it for me. if i am ahead i will likely post and bet the night game. if i lose again today i may have to take a vacation...lol, not really.