Florida at Auburn. Why did this open as a pick?

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • BobHarvey
    SBR MVP
    • 07-08-08
    • 3987

    #1
    Florida at Auburn. Why did this open as a pick?
    The line was a little surprising. A 'pick' with Auburn at home against a freshman quarterback. What do you think?

  • Ice House
    Restricted User
    • 07-21-10
    • 4060

    #2
    go auburn
    Comment
    • BigdaddyQH
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 07-13-09
      • 19530

      #3
      I thought Auburn would open up at -3. Both of these teams have two losses, but Florida is a mess right now. Auburn is 4-0 ATS against Florida at home.
      Comment
      • chankng
        SBR MVP
        • 03-16-10
        • 1975

        #4
        but florida defense is arguably still great
        Comment
        • Blackroc78
          SBR MVP
          • 08-15-11
          • 1189

          #5
          auburn
          Comment
          • balls2wall
            SBR MVP
            • 12-20-09
            • 2642

            #6
            Originally posted by chankng
            but florida defense is arguably still great


            "arguably" being the key word
            Comment
            • Wrecktangle
              SBR MVP
              • 03-01-09
              • 1524

              #7
              The market thought Florida was about 3 pts better than Auburn on a neutral field.

              ...now it's 2.
              Comment
              • DerekMadden
                SBR MVP
                • 01-14-11
                • 1361

                #8
                Auburn Run Offense - B+
                Florida Run Defense - C
                Auburn Pass Offense - D
                Florida Pass Defense - B

                Florida Run Offense - B
                Auburn Run Defense - C
                Florida Pass Offense - C (without 1st and 2nd string qb)
                Auburn Pass Defense - D

                Special Teams
                Auburn B
                Florida B

                Home field advantage - Auburn

                Close game advantage - Auburn (9-0 in games decided by 4pts less)


                Go with Auburn
                Comment
                • Wrecktangle
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-01-09
                  • 1524

                  #9
                  A, B, C, D metrics = hogwash ^^^^^
                  Comment
                  • Ice House
                    Restricted User
                    • 07-21-10
                    • 4060

                    #10
                    yeah this line is surprising but I guess utah state almost beat auburn so ya never know what auburn team will show up.
                    Comment
                    • wal66
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 10-14-08
                      • 5305

                      #11
                      Just an opinion since I won't have money on the game and obviously I'm a Gator fan.

                      Florida has been pummeled the past 2 weeks on both sides of the ball. This won't be a free pass week but Auburn does not bring the same upfront physicality as Alabama and LSU did. These 2 teams are more evenly matched as far as size goes and I would give the edge to Florida in speed on both sides of the ball.

                      Florida will be better able to run the ball against Auburn and while Dyer is a formidable back he is not in the same class as Florida has faced the previous weeks and more importantly neither is Auburn's offensive line.

                      I know Auburn beat South Carolina but so much of that had to do with the dismal performance of Steven Garcia.

                      Everything I think about this game could be completely proven to be wishful thinking but at the time of this writing I truly think Florida wins in a relatively close game. In fact if it climbs to Auburn -3 or higher I probably will make a small play of Florida money lie since it will have value for me at that point.
                      Comment
                      • Ice House
                        Restricted User
                        • 07-21-10
                        • 4060

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Blackroc78
                        auburn

                        Auburn stadium is going to be rocking
                        Comment
                        • thfootball
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-16-11
                          • 1771

                          #13
                          Florida I believe is down to their 3rd QB
                          Comment
                          • le14
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 02-11-10
                            • 24

                            #14
                            agreed, going with Auburn
                            Comment
                            • le14
                              SBR Rookie
                              • 02-11-10
                              • 24

                              #15
                              Auburn is at +2 right now on 5Dimes. I'm biting right now since I do not think it's going to get better than that.

                              Auburn at home, coming off a loss, with Florida coming in with a true freshman QB.
                              Comment
                              • le14
                                SBR Rookie
                                • 02-11-10
                                • 24

                                #16
                                double post
                                Comment
                                • Bengals28
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-20-11
                                  • 2164

                                  #17
                                  Auburn +2 @ 5dimes.

                                  Am I missing something
                                  Comment
                                  • Pickma$ter
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 11-15-10
                                    • 240

                                    #18
                                    Florida is the play as Auburn still has huge gaps in there defense. Florida may have got handled by #1 & #2 teams in the nation with the best defensives in College football. Auburn is NOWHERE near LSU and Alabama and won't pose much threat on defense.
                                    Comment
                                    • TucsonTom
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 10-10-11
                                      • 54

                                      #19
                                      I'm not sure I would give Florida a B in rush offense. They are ranked 10th in the country right now in rushing yards per game on the road. Also, Auburn should have an F for run defense. They are ranked 110th in the nation in rush yards allowed per game at home. Also, Florida is being undervalued coming off of the hardest 2 week schedule of any team in a long time. This is why the line is where it is. If Florida can dominate with their run game then they control TOP from the get go and it takes a lot of pressure off of their young, inexperienced QBs, and places it directly on the young, a little less-inexperienced Auburn QB.
                                      Comment
                                      • Ice House
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 07-21-10
                                        • 4060

                                        #20
                                        game is at Auburn though, if it was at Florida this line would be about right
                                        Comment
                                        • Bengals28
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 04-20-11
                                          • 2164

                                          #21
                                          I'm still thinking it over, but I really wanna go LARGE on Auburn.
                                          Comment
                                          • Greyraptor
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 09-02-11
                                            • 610

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by le14
                                            Auburn is at +2 right now on 5Dimes. I'm biting right now since I do not think it's going to get better than that.

                                            Auburn at home, coming off a loss, with Florida coming in with a true freshman QB.
                                            It is Auburn +2 right now at my book as well. This almost seems like a trap game and too good to be true.
                                            Comment
                                            • DJT22
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 04-12-11
                                              • 5

                                              #23
                                              AUB easy! UF is terrible without Brantley
                                              Comment
                                              • Pickma$ter
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 11-15-10
                                                • 240

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by DJT22
                                                AUB easy! UF is terrible without Brantley
                                                LMAO I love how Vegas knows how to twist these lines with false perception from national tv games.
                                                Comment
                                                • Greyraptor
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 09-02-11
                                                  • 610

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by DJT22
                                                  AUB easy! UF is terrible without Brantley
                                                  Is Florida REALLY terrible or have they just played reallly good teams lately. Last week they played the #1 team in the country and the week before that they lost equally as bad to a very good Alabama team. They beat Kentucky soundly (yawn) and they beat Tennessee by 10. This Auburn team may be the closest to Florida's level of competetion all year, but I don't follow the SEC like I do the Big 10 so I need some help from you guys. I am leaning Auburn especially at +2 but it seems like a trap to me. The other thing I was thinking is this. Could Auburn be caught in a "look ahead" situation with having to play LSU next week or does that just not happen in the SEC. That happens in the Big Ten. Hell, I remember Ohio State getting beat by Michigan State at home just before they had to play Michigan on the road back in the late 90's.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Sunde91
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 11-26-09
                                                    • 8325

                                                    #26
                                                    hmm Auburn ML +110 right now, may not be a better chance

                                                    +110 for a home night game with an Auburn team that is still capable against Florida playing its 3rd game of a brutal stretch with 3rd string QB (true freshman? gotta be kidding me)

                                                    traps lose too, great Auburn spot
                                                    Comment
                                                    • DanoRoo
                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                      • 10-05-11
                                                      • 50

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Greyraptor
                                                      Is Florida REALLY terrible or have they just played reallly good teams lately. Last week they played the #1 team in the country and the week before that they lost equally as bad to a very good Alabama team. They beat Kentucky soundly (yawn) and they beat Tennessee by 10. This Auburn team may be the closest to Florida's level of competetion all year, but I don't follow the SEC like I do the Big 10 so I need some help from you guys. I am leaning Auburn especially at +2 but it seems like a trap to me. The other thing I was thinking is this. Could Auburn be caught in a "look ahead" situation with having to play LSU next week or does that just not happen in the SEC. That happens in the Big Ten. Hell, I remember Ohio State getting beat by Michigan State at home just before they had to play Michigan on the road back in the late 90's.
                                                      Florida will play defense. Auburn will not. That being said, with Florida down to their 3rd QB, and Auburn being at home. I would take Auburn.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • texhooper
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 01-05-09
                                                        • 10001

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Greyraptor
                                                        Is Florida REALLY terrible or have they just played reallly good teams lately. Last week they played the #1 team in the country and the week before that they lost equally as bad to a very good Alabama team. They beat Kentucky soundly (yawn) and they beat Tennessee by 10. This Auburn team may be the closest to Florida's level of competetion all year, but I don't follow the SEC like I do the Big 10 so I need some help from you guys. I am leaning Auburn especially at +2 but it seems like a trap to me. The other thing I was thinking is this. Could Auburn be caught in a "look ahead" situation with having to play LSU next week or does that just not happen in the SEC. That happens in the Big Ten. Hell, I remember Ohio State getting beat by Michigan State at home just before they had to play Michigan on the road back in the late 90's.
                                                        yes, it happens everywhere, and this would be the kind of game where it would happen.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • mtneer1212
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 06-22-08
                                                          • 4993

                                                          #29
                                                          Auburn is not good. They have been a little lucky in spots, and they are becoming a bit exposed. Florida isn't that great on offense, but they are good enough to score on Auburn.

                                                          Florida is the play.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • BernardMadoff
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 12-12-09
                                                            • 6679

                                                            #30
                                                            Gators will roll.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • mp5070
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 09-13-08
                                                              • 5446

                                                              #31
                                                              Auburn
                                                              Comment
                                                              • sapidoc
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 03-25-10
                                                                • 1273

                                                                #32
                                                                Oh boy...
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Greyraptor
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 09-02-11
                                                                  • 610

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by DanoRoo
                                                                  Florida will play defense. Auburn will not. That being said, with Florida down to their 3rd QB, and Auburn being at home. I would take Auburn.
                                                                  Thanks Dano.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Greyraptor
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 09-02-11
                                                                    • 610

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Sunde91
                                                                    hmm Auburn ML +110 right now, may not be a better chance

                                                                    +110 for a home night game with an Auburn team that is still capable against Florida playing its 3rd game of a brutal stretch with 3rd string QB (true freshman? gotta be kidding me)

                                                                    traps lose too, great Auburn spot
                                                                    You are exactly right as far as the value for the ML play right here. I love the value with Auburn on ML but just wanted to get some of you SEC guys perspective. I have seen more Florida than Auburn and what I saw of Florida was against LSU and Bama. I didn't like what I saw from the Gators but come on...Auburn does not have close to the talent level of LSU's defense from what I have seen so far.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Greyraptor
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 09-02-11
                                                                      • 610

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by texhooper
                                                                      yes, it happens everywhere, and this would be the kind of game where it would happen.
                                                                      Thanks Tex!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      Search
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      SBR Contests
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Working...