Georgia Tech @ NC State Line movement

CBASS · 09-29-11, 04:37 AM

Originally posted by Barnes & Whine

I have observed the line opening offshore for Georgia Tech at -10.5 and read that people are heavily backing GT in this game but my book is moving the line down to -10 and then -9.5 on Betislands. Still it is -10.5 on SI and -10 (105) on Bodog earlier yesterday. The point I'm getting at is that I am seeing some reverse line movement and that makes me tentative to put money on the chalk here. With anywhere from 75% to 90% people betting on GT, and the line moving in the other direction, could this be a case of Reverse Line Movement or is this the dog bettors pounding NC State early? Is this a blowout coming for GT with their potent option offense or is is this a trap game for GT backers? Would like some of your opinions. Let's get this one right!

B&W

My guess would be the latter (probably just dog bettors). I have tried to cap this game, but there are still too many unknowns for me to endorse either side. Hopefully someone will share some good angles to this matchup.

khaden · 09-29-11, 09:33 AM

I already place my bet on this at GT -9.5. Seems like this will be a big play for alot of people on SBR this week. I watched the entire Cinncy NC State game and I can not see how in the world NC keeps GT from scoring. I've been checking the NC State injuries etc. and they have no defensive line for this game. They could be starting a walk on at d-tackle this week and playing another d lineman out of position. With the amount of injuries, playing people out of their normal positions, and absolutely no depth on the d line, GT could score 60+. Obviously GT could come out and lay an egg, but if the game "plays out like it should" this will be a very lopsided game IMO.

HVACMAN29710 · 09-29-11, 09:48 AM

Amen khaden..... discipline defense is the only way to stop the option attack..... discipline is an extremely hard concept for the second string of NC State.... lets face it, if they were disciplined they might be on first string??? Inexperience dooms the Wolfpack

HVACMAN29710 · 09-29-11, 09:51 AM

To put it lightly..... if I'm wrong on this game, then I'm going to take the rest of the season off. I hate layups, because they can hurt real bad on a miss. Unfortunately, this is definitely the easiest layup I've seen the whole season....every bit as good as the GT/Kansas over

khaden · 09-29-11, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by HVACMAN29710

Amen khaden..... discipline defense is the only way to stop the option attack..... discipline is an extremely hard concept for the second string of NC State.... lets face it, if they were disciplined they might be on first string??? Inexperience dooms the Wolfpack

I agree 100%-in fact from what I read they are going to be going deeper than the 2nd string on the D-line! Who are they going to be rotating in to give those guys a blow during the game? A very week, inexperienced d-line with no depth or back ups to rotate in during the game spells disaster against a very efficient option team. OH by the way now GT is no longer one dimensional they now have a much improved passing game --This all smells like a blow out in my mind.

CPJFTW · 09-29-11, 12:03 PM

I took GT heavily, and I involved them on about 10 different parlays....

Since I'm that confident, I will share with SBR why I am confident about this play:

Key points:

*NC STATE kicked out a Heisman frontrunner.

*NC STATE can't run. They lost 26 yards against cinci....

*NC STATE is riddled with injuries. They are missing their entire defensive line, and 7 or 8 starters. The only starter on the D-line is out of position. There is no depth in the front 7. (Rieskamp, Teal, Slay, Sweezy, Ferguson, Manning..all out) In CPJ's rush heavy pounding offense, that inexperienced 2nd and 3rd string Dline will get man handled...as GT substitutes heavily on the Oline to keep them running hard. I expect to see Sims (bback/fullback) to run over 125 yards, and to be used heavily.

*NC STATE'S defense is getting beat up in every regard. They gave up over 250 rushing, with a 6 yard per carry average.....to Cincinnati....They have given up over 100 yards rushing in every game, including 111 to Liberty, w a 5 yard per carry average. They gave up almost 1,000 yards to cinci and wake...two very underperforming teams this year.

*GEORGIA TECH is the number one offense in the country. #1 in scoring, #2 in rushing, #1 in passing efficientcy, 60th in overall passing. For a team that runs 90% of the time...They average over 600 yards a game. They are completing over 64% of their passes, with an average of 33 yards per completion. They are running for over 7 yards a carry as a team through 4 games, and their leading rusher is averaging 18.4 yards a carry....yes carry.

*GEORGIA TECH seems to have somewhat of a defense this year. In years past we used scarecrows dressed in georgia tech uniforms, but this year we actually have real players. One of which is 3rd in the nation in sacks, and the defense is ranked middle of the pack in scoring. Which is quite good, as our scarecrows were ranked #992835967986 last year. This year we can run and tackle, and everything! YAY

*Did I mention Georgia tech is #1 in scoring offense, averaging over 50 points a game?

*GEORGIA TECH got crushed last year at home against NCST. Kansas also upset GT last year. What happened to them? The team is very eager about getting payback this year.

Also, check out these threads at the NC state boards...this is too funny...

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=178&f=2515&t=7988412

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=178&f=2515&t=7995463

Wolfpacker · 09-29-11, 12:10 PM

I am an ncsu fan and have been guilty of a little bias in the past, but it is going to be tough for State to be with 14 in the fourth quarter. One thing to consider is that state has had a long week to prepare, but Gt has won 3 in a row in Raleigh so I think they offset each other. There are rumblings in raleigh about Tom Obriens future and
I think he is very focused to show a decent performance after the harassment at
Cinch last week. I think this motivation is what could get a
Backdoor
Cover, but I don't reasonably see a scenario where the moneyline or a teased line will be at risk. I personally am laying the line at 9.5 as well as on a parlay to win SU. GT has too much force and Ncsu's air attack will not be able to
Exploit the Gt secondary enough
To cover.

brahmabull117 · 09-29-11, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by CPJFTW

I took GT heavily, and I involved them on about 10 different parlays.... Since I'm that confident, I will share with SBR why I am confident about this play: Key points: *NC STATE kicked out a Heisman frontrunner. *NC STATE can't run. They lost 26 yards against cinci.... *NC STATE is riddled with injuries. They are missing their entire defensive line, and 7 or 8 starters. The only starter on the D-line is out of position. There is no depth in the front 7. (Rieskamp, Teal, Slay, Sweezy, Ferguson, Manning..all out) In CPJ's rush heavy pounding offense, that inexperienced 2nd and 3rd string Dline will get man handled...as GT substitutes heavily on the Oline to keep them running hard. I expect to see Sims (bback/fullback) to run over 125 yards, and to be used heavily. *NC STATE'S defense is getting beat up in every regard. They gave up over 250 rushing, with a 6 yard per carry average.....to Cincinnati....They have given up over 100 yards rushing in every game, including 111 to Liberty, w a 5 yard per carry average. They gave up almost 1,000 yards to cinci and wake...two very underperforming teams this year. *GEORGIA TECH is the number one offense in the country. #1 in scoring, #2 in rushing, #1 in passing efficientcy, 60th in overall passing. For a team that runs 90% of the time...They average over 600 yards a game. They are completing over 64% of their passes, with an average of 33 yards per completion. They are running for over 7 yards a carry as a team through 4 games, and their leading rusher is averaging 18.4 yards a carry....yes carry. *GEORGIA TECH seems to have somewhat of a defense this year. In years past we used scarecrows dressed in georgia tech uniforms, but this year we actually have real players. One of which is 3rd in the nation in sacks, and the defense is ranked middle of the pack in scoring. Which is quite good, as our scarecrows were ranked #992835967986 last year. This year we can run and tackle, and everything! YAY *Did I mention Georgia tech is #1 in scoring offense, averaging over 50 points a game? *GEORGIA TECH got crushed last year at home against NCST. Kansas also upset GT last year. What happened to them? The team is very eager about getting payback this year. Also, check out these threads at the NC state boards...this is too funny... http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=178&f=2515&t=7988412 http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=178&f=2515&t=7995463

this

IMO the current version of NC State defense is no better than kansas' defense that got torched for 66 points against G tech

you will see huge play after huge play after huge play after huge play in this one. If gtech just plays a smart and turn over free game (or at least limits the turnovers), they could win this by 30-40

CPJFTW · 09-29-11, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

this

IMO the current version of NC State defense is no better than kansas' defense that got torched for 66 points against G tech

you will see huge play after huge play after huge play after huge play in this one. If gtech just plays a smart and turn over free game (or at least limits the turnovers), they could win this by 30-40

Honestly, I'm expecting a 14-21 point win with GT fans gasping for air in freight of a possible wtf game at least once in this game. I'd love to see a 30 point win, and it's a possibility... BUT I can see some turnovers and issues happening in this game. GT always has at least one WTF game against weak teams, and NCST always has about 1 WTF win...

I also see Sims, the least used GT RB, getting a lot of carries, and sustaining 13-15 play drives instead of 1 play 95 yard drives. I think CPJ is too old school to not pound it in the middle against an undersized 3rd team D-line. Which is why they won't score 66 unless sims majically learns to break a tackle...