Alabama vs. Florida (CBASS Writeup)

[CBASS]

Alabama vs. Florida: I really like this game. I was glad to see Florida getting more than 3 pts, because I think they win outright. I completely understand how good Bama’s defense is, however, they have not been tested against a balanced attack from a team that has excellent speed. I also see Charlie Weis unveiling a few new wrinkles with the offense. Maybe a little ‘wild gator’ with Burton under center…I guarantee you that Florida will have a couple of trick plays ready to put on display as well. Something else to consider, Muschamp used to work with Saban at LSU and Miami Dolphins. He knows how Saban operates and yes Saban knows how Muschamp operates, but it will benefit Muschamp more. You see, Saban knows Muschamp’s tendencies as far as schemes, but Muschamp knows how Saban has prepared his team and what weakness Saban will try to exploit. Got it? Good, moving on….This is a REVENGE SPOT. Florida’s upperclassmen have not forgotten losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship game a couple years ago and losing at Bama 31-6 last year. Also, McCarron nor Sims have faced the atmosphere of a night game at ‘The Swamp’. This is one of the toughest venues in college football. Bama BETTER NOT let Florida get out to an early lead or it will be lights out! Well, there you have it… I’ve got the Gators 27 Tide 24. We will take the points just to be safe.

BOL this weekend everyone!

[shooms79]

damn cbass...not linking this! thanks for the W last week and giving me the nudge with ari st.

[CBASS]

damn cbass...not linking this! thanks for the W last week and giving me the nudge with ari st.

Hopefully we can keep cashing them my friend!

[suicidekings]

Your assessment of why Muschamp has an edge over Saban doesn't really work for me. Both coaches have knowledge of the other's tendencies, for sure, but I would call it a draw at worst. Saying that Muschamp knows how Saban will try to exploit the Florida is synonymous with Muschamp knowing where his own team is weak. Important, but not a tactical advantage.

Saban has proven himself year after year by calling big plays in tight situations and really getting the best out of his team. Muschamp is a great DC that has not been tested AT ALL yet as a head coach. The jump from DC to HC is not insignificant, especially with it being his first season at Florida. UAB and Florida Atlantic are statistically two of the worst teams in the FBS, and Tennessee/Kentucky are not far above Vandy for the basement of the SEC. I would have to give Saban the edge based on experience.

[CBASS]

Your assessment of why Muschamp has an edge over Saban doesn't really work for me. Both coaches have knowledge of the other's tendencies, for sure, but I would call it a draw at worst. Saying that Muschamp knows how Saban will try to exploit the Florida is synonymous with Muschamp knowing where his own team is weak. Important, but not a tactical advantage.

Saban has proven himself year after year by calling big plays in tight situations and really getting the best out of his team. Muschamp is a great DC that has not been tested AT ALL yet as a head coach. The jump from DC to HC is not insignificant, especially with it being his first season at Florida. UAB and Florida Atlantic are statistically two of the worst teams in the FBS, and Tennessee/Kentucky are not far above Vandy for the basement of the SEC. I would have to give Saban the edge based on experience.

Muschamp certainly holds the advantage when it comes to knowing how Saban operates instead of vice versa. You see, by Muschamp not having been a HC before, it is actually going to work to his ADVANTAGE. Let me give you an example, Josh McDaniels' Broncos were able to defeat Bill Belichick's Patriots a couple of years ago. There was absolutely no way that Denver should have won that game, but McDaniels actually held the advantage in that situation. I can use several more examples, but I don't want to ramble on. I agree that Alabama has played the tougher schedule so far, but that is not Florida's fault. The Gators crushed the teams they were supposed to crush and Tennessee is VERY underrated. Florida was in control of that game throughout and the final score does not indicate how lopsided that game actually was. You are correct in saying that Saban has more experience, but Muschamp has a very experienced staff to help counter that. It should be a great game.

[Jimb0311]

Nice write up. I like it!

[CBASS]

Nice write up. I like it!

Thanks bro!
That's a great avatar!

[wal66]

I bleed Orange and Blue and we are on oppisite sides here.

Psssssssst, for the record I hope you are right and I am wrong.

[utmoody10]

CBass, does Florida's inability to stretch the field concern you? Other than a dump off to Rainey/Demps out of the backfield, I see no one at wide out that would scare the Tide. I think their fundamentally sound, well tackling defense will limit the amount of big plays from Rainey. Also there is a concern with red zone efficiency. When the Gators get close I am not sure if they have an effective guy in between the tackles, nearly 40% of their red zone scores have come via field goal.

I am in agreement with worrying about McCarron but all Bama asks is to be a game manager and make a few throws here and there. Florida's D is stacked on the D line with talent but I think their defensive backfield is susceptible, making things a little easier on McCarron. I see this game being a grinder and will side with the Tide even though line movement suggests I should probably think it over longer.

[CBASS]

I bleed Orange and Blue and we are on oppisite sides here.

Psssssssst, for the record I hope you are right and I am wrong.

Don't underestimate your team's capabilities Wal!

[zacharyj53]

No chance UF puts up 27 on Bama unless they get a couple of scores off of D and STs.

[CBASS]

CBass, does Florida's inability to stretch the field concern you? Other than a dump off to Rainey/Demps out of the backfield, I see no one at wide out that would scare the Tide. I think their fundamentally sound, well tackling defense will limit the amount of big plays from Rainey. Also there is a concern with red zone efficiency. When the Gators get close I am not sure if they have an effective guy in between the tackles, nearly 40% of their red zone scores have come via field goal.

I am in agreement with worrying about McCarron but all Bama asks is to be a game manager and make a few throws here and there. Florida's D is stacked on the D line with talent but I think their defensive backfield is susceptible, making things a little easier on McCarron. I see this game being a grinder and will side with the Tide even though line movement suggests I should probably think it over longer.

I understand your concern. Remember, Florida doesn't necessarily have to hit the 'open man' downfield. They just have to make a couple passes downfield to keep Alabama honest. I believe the playcalling by Weis is going to open things up. Florida has been conservative with their playbook for a reason and Saturday night, we will know why.

Keep this in mind, Florida will have a huge edge with their home field advantage. They also have the talent to match Alabama. Also, the Tide will be hard pressed to match the intensity level that they had against Arkansas. This game has the same feel to it as the Florida vs. LSU game from 1997. Everyone said LSU had no chance against that high octane Florida offense that was loaded with talent, but they were all wrong. That home crowd had a huge affect and it turned out that LSU indeed had the talent to match. Keep in mind, this is only one game. In a situation like this, I like Florida's chances. Now if they had to play the best of five or something like that, then I would definitely give Alabama the edge.

[CBASS]

No chance UF puts up 27 on Bama unless they get a couple of scores off of D and STs.

I hear ya bud. We shall see. Alabama has not faced a balanced offense with excellent speed either. Hell, Florida might even get a td on special teams too.

[zacharyj53]

I hear ya bud. We shall see. Alabama has not faced a balanced offense with excellent speed either. Hell, Florida might even get a td on special teams too.

Ark is a pretty good offensive team. They have great WRs and a good QB. Those are two things UF lacks. Only shot UF has is if they win the turnover battle and have great STs play.

Could UF win the game, sure but I wouldn't take UF ML with Alabama's D. Now I would wait to Saturday and take the points if I was going to back UF. I think the line will climb back up to around -6 by then.

[HoldEmHook!!]

what your missing is its not Saban/Muschamp as much as its Saban/Weis.......and with the offense Fla has it plays right into Saban's wheelhouse. Brantley is no down field threat. not a passing threat much at all. Bama's secondary has the ability to make open field tackles.......I believe Fla will score some points (13) but not enough to beat Bama's 31......Roll Tide!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[wal66]

If Jordan Reed is able to play he will be a huge asset to Florida.

Also, and this is just my thinking but if we were to move Demos or Rainey to the slot and the other to wideout that would pose a serious deep threat. Burton or GillisLee can run the ball physically.

In this scheme it would force Bama to guard against the deep, cover the middle, protect the outside against the reverse and screen and still have to stop running between the tackles.

Brantley though would still have to get the ball to the open guy.


FOK, I should be an offensive coordinator.

[CBASS]

what your missing is its not Saban/Muschamp as much as its Saban/Weis.......and with the offense Fla has it plays right into Saban's wheelhouse. Brantley is no down field threat. not a passing threat much at all. Bama's secondary has the ability to make open field tackles.......I believe Fla will score some points (13) but not enough to beat Bama's 31......Roll Tide!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You could have said the same thing about Alabama vs. LSU last year, but what happened in that one?

[CBASS]

If Jordan Reed is able to play he will be a huge asset to Florida.

Also, and this is just my thinking but if we were to move Demos or Rainey to the slot and the other to wideout that would pose a serious deep threat. Burton or GillisLee can run the ball physically.

In this scheme it would force Bama to guard against the deep, cover the middle, protect the outside against the reverse and screen and still have to stop running between the tackles.

Brantley though would still have to get the ball to the open guy.


FOK, I should be an offensive coordinator.

Damn Wal, you got this thing dissected to a 'T'! I need to email Weis and see if he could use an assistant. LOL

[sweethook]

coaching may win this game , alabama all day , gl

[Mac4Lyfe]

what your missing is its not Saban/Muschamp as much as its Saban/Weis.......and with the offense Fla has it plays right into Saban's wheelhouse. Brantley is no down field threat. not a passing threat much at all. Bama's secondary has the ability to make open field tackles.......I believe Fla will score some points (13) but not enough to beat Bama's 31......Roll Tide!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think there's a huge advantage for Weis and his offense. Saban won't be able to gameplan for it as much as Muschamp will be able to gameplan for Bama.

But, the Xfactor is the QB's. I don't put a lot of stock into Brantley, thus have to favor Bama. I also think Bama's RB's are a huge advantage over UF's as they can break tackles whereas Demps and Rainey fall down from shoelaces.

UF's special teams have been horrible this year. No real threat on punt returns or kickoffs. Bama will also have an edge there and UF's secondary is young and inexperienced. Too many pluses for Bama for me to put money on UF although that's my team as well. I keep hearing about the revenge factor for UF but I think Bama is in these boys heads. I don't think UF thinks it's as physical as Bama and that will prove the difference. Bama will ground and pound UF while UF will still try and finesse which won't work.

Bama wins this by 2 TD's IMO but I hope I'm wrong as well.

[Mac4Lyfe]

I do think UF matches up better with LSU and will win next week in BR.

[CBASS]

coaching may win this game , alabama all day , gl

I respect your opinion sweethook, but I am just posting a map to where the treasure lies. GL to you!

[CBASS]

I think there's a huge advantage for Weis and his offense. Saban won't be able to gameplan for it as much as Muschamp will be able to gameplan for Bama.

But, the Xfactor is the QB's. I don't put a lot of stock into Brantley, thus have to favor Bama. I also think Bama's RB's are a huge advantage over UF's as they can break tackles whereas Demps and Rainey fall down from shoelaces.

UF's special teams have been horrible this year. No real threat on punt returns or kickoffs. Bama will also have an edge there and UF's secondary is young and inexperienced. Too many pluses for Bama for me to put money on UF although that's my team as well. I keep hearing about the revenge factor for UF but I think Bama is in these boys heads. I don't think UF thinks it's as physical as Bama and that will prove the difference. Bama will ground and pound UF while UF will still try and finesse which won't work.

Bama wins this by 2 TD's IMO but I hope I'm wrong as well.

You make some good points, but I feel that you are underestimating how physical Florida is. Hey Mac, teach me how to do the 'gator chomp' properly after the game buddy.

[CBASS]

Alabama is now at -3.5

GO GATORS!!!

[firehoyt]

This will be no contest. Florida hasn't been tested yet and Brantley is a shit QB. He was shit last year and just because theres a new OC...doesn't mean Brantley will be any better. I'm a die hard Auburn fan and I HATE absolutely everything to do with the Crimson Tide...but I do give them the respect they deserve on the field. They will steam roll Florida just like they did Arkansas. Just wait and see! People try to be too sharp, examples being "taking West Virgina over LSU" and "Arkansas over Alabama"!! Look, Alabama and LSU are the elite teams this year and I'm going to ride them all the way to the end!!

[zuluhead1``1]

Very nice write up. You bring up some very astute points.

As someone else stated, Alabama does not ask it's QB's to be Peyton Manning, just game managers and Mccarron is more than able to do so. This game could go either way. I think the key for Florida to win is to hold onto the ball and to attack with the run game. The keys for Alabama will be to force Brantley into making mistakes, and winning the field position war through good special teams play.


I see the Bama defense causing too many problems for Florida. Not only will that force turn overs, but we are so deep that there will be fresh guys on the field for most of the game. Weiss and Muschamp will be out couched and out manned when it comes to the Gators O vs Bama's D. As far as Bama scoring, as I said, we will have to win the special teams battle, but I do not see Florida keeping Richardson and Lacey under wraps. I said this in another thread, but I believe the Richardson/Lacey combo is way more deadly than Ingram/Richardson of 2010 and to a lesser extent 2011.

[CBASS]

This will be no contest. Florida hasn't been tested yet and Brantley is a shit QB. He was shit last year and just because theres a new OC...doesn't mean Brantley will be any better. I'm a die hard Auburn fan and I HATE absolutely everything to do with the Crimson Tide...but I do give them the respect they deserve on the field. They will steam roll Florida just like they did Arkansas. Just wait and see! People try to be too sharp, examples being "taking West Virgina over LSU" and "Arkansas over Alabama"!! Look, Alabama and LSU are the elite teams this year and I'm going to ride them all the way to the end!!

You have no clue if you think Alabama is going to 'steam roll' Florida at The Swamp (in a night game at that). Also, I had LSU over West Virginia. So just for the record...I may not be a 'sharp', but I do know how to win bets, because I know what to look for in matchups that clueless people do not.

[CBASS]

Very nice write up. You bring up some very astute points.

As someone else stated, Alabama does not ask it's QB's to be Peyton Manning, just game managers and Mccarron is more than able to do so. This game could go either way. I think the key for Florida to win is to hold onto the ball and to attack with the run game. The keys for Alabama will be to force Brantley into making mistakes, and winning the field position war through good special teams play.


I see the Bama defense causing too many problems for Florida. Not only will that force turn overs, but we are so deep that there will be fresh guys on the field for most of the game. Weiss and Muschamp will be out couched and out manned when it comes to the Gators O vs Bama's D. As far as Bama scoring, as I said, we will have to win the special teams battle, but I do not see Florida keeping Richardson and Lacey under wraps. I said this in another thread, but I believe the Richardson/Lacey combo is way more deadly than Ingram/Richardson of 2010 and to a lesser extent 2011.

You make some valid points. I would argue that Rainey/Demps make a hell of a combo in their own right.

[ImmaBammer12]

All of you are making sound points about this game but you forget the one obvious fact about these games, it's the SEC and no matter what you see it all basically is just about mistakes and opportunities to win the game. Both teams match up pretty evenly in my opinion. They are lead by great coaches and staffs so this game will most likely be purely about proper execution. I also wouldn't be surprised if injuries don't become a factor as well. The line move is good to see because this is about where I saw the game opening at (Bama -3.5). Florida still hasn't played a solid team also Tennessee was a test but not like this weekend will be. I won't lie, I'm incredibly nervous about Bama going to "The Swamp" and playing at night.

[CBASS]

All of you are making sound points about this game but you forget the one obvious fact about these games, it's the SEC and no matter what you see it all basically is just about mistakes and opportunities to win the game. Both teams match up pretty evenly in my opinion. They are lead by great coaches and staffs so this game will most likely be purely about proper execution. I also wouldn't be surprised if injuries don't become a factor as well. The line move is good to see because this is about where I saw the game opening at (Bama -3.5). Florida still hasn't played a solid team also Tennessee was a test but not like this weekend will be. I won't lie, I'm incredibly nervous about Bama going to "The Swamp" and playing at night.

Nicely put!

[BamaBill67]

CBASS , is this an independant view point or are you a Florida fan ? just curious

[CBASS]

CBASS , is this an independant view point or are you a Florida fan ? just curious

I am not a Florida fan, however, I will be Saturday night. I am a fan of all teams that I have wagers on. LOL
Good question though and I can understand why you would think that.

[BamaBill67]

Coaching college and pro is 2 different animals and C Weis is not a good college coach .

[CBASS]

Coaching college and pro is 2 different animals and C Weis is not a good college coach .

Correct, but Weis is a HELL OF AN OC at any level.

[HoldEmHook!!]

You could have said the same thing about Alabama vs. LSU last year, but what happened in that one?

The same thing that happened with South Carolina, Auburn, lack of experience and an injured M Barron at free safety, Barron is laying the lumber this year. The Bama secondary has improved thier open field tackling 100% from last year. Fla has outscored there oppents 54-3 in the first quarter this year. Lets see how they play even or behind after the 1st quarter.