Previous Matchups in College Football are Extremely Useful

MartinBlank · 09-19-11, 01:11 PM

Would this be anything like your observations about the Ravens and Bears?

I mean, last week you explained to all of us how the Bears play close games-----and you mocked everyone who warned you about the Titans. How'd it work all work out for you yesterday?

brahmabull117 · 09-19-11, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by MartinBlank

Would this be anything like your observations about the Ravens and Bears?

I mean, last week you explained to all of us how the Bears play close games-----and you mocked everyone who warned you about the Titans. How'd it work all work out for you yesterday?

stop polluting the good sections of this site with this nonsense dude, if you want to talk NFL go to the NFL section. If you want to call me out on my plays, call me out in the PT section

otherwise, talk college football or GTFO

MartinBlank · 09-19-11, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

IMO this is the one sport where looking at the previous matchup between 2 teams gives you a fantastic indicator of what's gonna happen in a game

example of what I'm talking about

MSU/LSU 2010 in LSU - 22 Point Win
MSU/LSU 2011 in MSU - 13 point Win

FSU/OU 2010 In OU - 30 Point win
FSU/OU 2011 In FSU - 13 Point Win

Boise/Toledo 2010 in Boise - 33 point win
Boise/Toledo 2011 in Toledo - 25 Point win

Tulsa/OSU in 2010 In OSU - huge win
Tulsa/OSU in 2011 In Tulsa - huge win

Arizona/Stanford in 2010 @ Stanford - 25 pt win
Arizona/Stanford in 2011 @ Arizona - 27 point win

Arizona/OSU in 2010 Bowl game - 26 point win
Arizona/OSU at OSU in 2011 - 23 point win

it's pretty incredible how close these matchups are

How does it explain ND losing to Michigan State by 3, and then beating them by 18?

What about TCU and Baylor.

TCU beat Baylor by 35 last year, and lost this year by 2.

And what about Miami and Ohio State? LY---Ohio State by 12, this year---Miami by 18.

And what about Miami, FL---and Maryland? Miami, FL won by 8 last year, and lost by 8 this year.

8 months ago--Washington beat down Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl--19-7, and last Saturday--9 months later, Nebraska hung 51 on Washington.

Last year, NC State beat Wake Forest 38-3....and this year, Wake won 34-27.

LY, BC won at Duke. This year, Duke won at BC.

Iowa State lost by 28 to Iowa last year, but beat Iowa this year.
Now, what was it you were trying to observe?

MartinBlank · 09-19-11, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

stop polluting the good sections of this site with this nonsense dude, if you want to talk NFL go to the NFL section. If you want to call me out on my plays, call me out in the PT section
otherwise, talk college football or GTFO

Well, I just made your "observation" look goofy, so read above.

brahmabull117 · 09-19-11, 01:24 PM

I should have said within reason as a disclaimer in my original post with the assumption that both teams have similar personnell to the previous year

Originally posted by MartinBlank

How does it explain ND losing to Michigan State by 3, and then beating them by 18?

to be fair, a 3 point win doesn't really prove anything either way. I thought this game was a coin flip type game, ND got lucky with a big special teams play and some big turnovers to turn a close game into a blowout

What about TCU and Baylor. TCU beat Baylor by 35 last year, and lost this year by 2.

not the same teams, TCU lost a ton of talent last year (especially their QB) while Baylor is a better team this year

And what about Miami and Ohio State? LY---Ohio State by 12, this year---Miami by 18.

OSU is horrible this year without pryor and everybody else on suspension. That didn't surprise me at all

And what about Miami, FL---and Maryland? Miami, FL won by 8 last year, and lost by 8 this year. 8 months ago

that's pretty standard road/home difference. Plus, wasn't miami missing a bunch of their good players??

--Washington beat down Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl--19-7, and last Saturday--9 months later, Nebraska hung 51 on Washington. Last year, NC State beat Wake Forest 38-3....and this year, Wake won 34-27. Now, what was it you were trying to observe?

I'm not really familiar with these 4 teams at all

Romanov · 09-19-11, 01:45 PM

people don't come here for your advice. stop posting this kind of stuff.

again, capping challenge you mother f*cker?

MartinBlank · 09-19-11, 01:48 PM

You eliminate Ohio State/Miami from your observation because of the losses Ohio State had in the off-season, but you use Tulsa in your discussion--even though they lost their head coach?

I think you are creating a theory and then working backwards.

brahmabull117 · 09-19-11, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by MartinBlank

You eliminate Ohio State/Miami from your observation because of the losses Ohio State had in the off-season, but you use Tulsa in your discussion--even though they lost their head coach?.

it's tulsa/oklahoma st. Bill Bellicheck couldn't keep that a close game, who cares who Tulsa's coach is??

wal66 · 09-19-11, 03:54 PM

BrahmaBull, I use a lot of previous match-up information in baseball and hockey. I use it to some extent in football as well. As to how much of an indicator it is I think it comes down mainly to how one interprets the information. Obviously in college football it is much more difficult due the simple turnover rate of the teams. That's not to say there isn't still some valid information to be gained.

Certain teams just have a HOLD over other teams. Case in point Florida over Tennessee and Georgia for the past decade or so. Another factor is even though kids come and go if the coaching staff remains intact then you can have some prolong runs over other teams.

By no means is previous match-ups a stand alone indicator or even one of the better factors but you can gain a little insight to help support other data.

brahmabull117 · 09-19-11, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by wal66

BrahmaBull, I use a lot of previous match-up information in baseball and hockey. I use it to some extent in football as well. As to how much of an indicator it is I think it comes down mainly to how one interprets the information. Obviously in college football it is much more difficult due the simple turnover rate of the teams. That's not to say there isn't still some valid information to be gained. Certain teams just have a HOLD over other teams. Case in point Florida over Tennessee and Georgia for the past decade or so. Another factor is even though kids come and go if the coaching staff remains intact then you can have some prolong runs over other teams. By no means is previous match-ups a stand alone indicator or even one of the better factors but you can gain a little insight to help support other data.

generally speaking though, as long as both teams have similar personnell and coaching staffs, it's a great indicator

pretty much all the marquee matchups this week had very similar result as last year except for auburn game (no cam newton)

BettingWizard · 09-19-11, 04:04 PM

too much turnover with coaches leaving and players graduating to always use this as a blind indicator

Romanov · 09-19-11, 05:10 PM

Hey brahma, get your ass in this thread:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1275573-official-capping-challenege-me-vs-brahmabull.html

MartinBlank · 09-19-11, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

generally speaking though, as long as both teams have similar personnell and coaching staffs, it's a great indicator

pretty much all the marquee matchups this week had very similar result as last year except for auburn game (no cam newton)

It has absolutely zero meaning. You can't find 6 or 7 examples and believe there is any statistical significance to such a small sample size. Have you even taken a stats class?

Hell----forget season-to-season.

Last year----Nebraska mauled Washington in the regular season 56-21. They played again in the Holiday Bowl---and guess what, Washington held them to 7 points, and won 19-7. What to make of that result? How does that compute in your silly observation?

You create these moronic observations "Bears never lose by more than 7" or "I am going to laugh at everyone on the Titans when the Ravens are up by 3 scores", and then you ignore all the information that should have been a warning to you.

Same instance here.

And stop hiding too. Guys are calling you out for the fraud you are.

jds07v · 09-20-11, 08:41 AM

While your FSU / Oklahoma game could be valid, since OU covered the spread in each, the atmosphere and the entire feel of the game was much different. Oklahoma delivered the knockout blow in the 1st quarter last year, and was able to do whatever they wanted on offense. This year was not the same thing. FSU tied the game midway through the 4th with a freshman qb leading the way. It was not dominant in the least, but a cover is a cover

brahmabull117 · 09-20-11, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by MartinBlank

It has absolutely zero meaning. You can't find 6 or 7 examples and believe there is any statistical significance to such a small sample size. Have you even taken a stats class? Hell----forget season-to-season. Last year----Nebraska mauled Washington in the regular season 56-21. They played again in the Holiday Bowl---and guess what, Washington held them to 7 points, and won 19-7. What to make of that result?

that's 1 game retard, I've got 7 or 8 examples, u have 1. Which one is more significant??

and I can bring up about a dozen more examples from the previous week...how about alabama beating penn st by 17 after beating them by 24 last year???

brahmabull117 · 09-20-11, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by BettingWizard

too much turnover with coaches leaving and players graduating to always use this as a blind indicator

of course, but that's why you gotta look at the personnell and coaching

BernardMadoff · 09-20-11, 11:14 AM

Brah this stuff I used to do when I first started gambling and trust me its not any indicator and these games are a year apart, different players, venues, and motivations, but it don't matter if they were days apart, that's not a good way to handicap, it'll have you losing money.

brahmabull117 · 09-20-11, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

Brah this stuff I used to do when I first started gambling and trust me its not any indicator and these games are a year apart, different players, venues, and motivations, but it don't matter if they were days apart, that's not a good way to handicap, it'll have you losing money.

it's not like I'm using this strategy blindbly brah. I don't pay any attention to it when there is any real difference in personnel

but if the personell, coaches, etc... is similar then I'm all over it