Good luck SK...I'm hoping for a final of 48, so we both cash
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#248
Temple 2H -3 (-105) x1
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#249
Originally posted by Love The Action
Good luck SK...I'm hoping for a final of 48, so we both cash
I dunno... U48.5 isn't looking good now. The 2H total is higher than it should be for this matchup and still getting action. I knew Coyer would see action in this game, but I didn't realize the impact would be such fast drives. The 3Q has been Temple's real lockdown defensive quarter this season so if we see a slow start and if I see a live line that's close I would likely buy out of the under for x0.5.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#250
Originally posted by suicidekings
LIVE (7-0, 1Q)
Under 48.5 (-108) x1
3Q Live Bet:
Over 48.5 (-106) x0.5
Dialing it down a bit...
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#251
11/3
UCF ML (-125) x1
UCF is a substantially better team at home than on the road, albeit against weaker opponents. Conversely, Tulsa has been looking great against crap teams lately. They haven't faced a team of UCF's calibre or better since Boise State.
I was WAY off on the Bama-LSU game, but hitting the Cincy-Pitt middle makes up for it
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#254
Huskers fail noted above...
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#255
Week 11
Oregon +3.5 (-113) x2.5
Kansas +17.5 (+114) x1
Oregon will win SU and Kansas will be playing with a ton of confidence against another weaker opponent after a big underdog road win.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#256
Originally posted by suicidekings
Oklahoma State to win the BCS Title (+1025) x1.5
I agree with the rest of the world that Alabama/LSU are the favourites here, but in my mind, it's a very real possibility that the winner of that game could do so by double digits, which could very well knock the loser down to 3rd place. If that happens, I like Oklahoma State as a value pick to be the team that sneaks in the door and contends for #2. There are a lot of indicators that make me believe that OK State will continue to excel down the stretch and be in a position to steal that spot if the opportunity arises.
I really like teams that perform well in the 1H, and OKState is ranked 3rd in 1H scoring margin this season, behind Wisconsin and Boise (who obviously have some softness in their schedules). First half performance really shows what a team is bringing to the table when they're facing their opponent's best players and so a team that dominates the 1H is usually one that is succeeding on their own merits as opposed to capitalizing on opposing defenders errors.
Offense:Passing: It goes without saying that they're high powered in this spot and is the obvious thing you think about when thinking OK State. They're 2nd in pass attempts per game, 6th is passing TDs per game, 1st in passing first downs, and 6th in passing TDs (3.1 per game).
Offense:Rushing: Their rushing game is very underrated. They only put up 161 yards per game (56th) on 34.7 carries (80th) on the ground because they are a pass-first offense, but despite those average numbers, OK State ranks 12th in rushing TDs on the season, running the ball in to score 2.9 times per game. So what might look like a very pass-heavy offense on the surface is actually an extremely well balanced attack.
Defense:Passing: OK State gets criticized for their defense, but when you look into the numbers, they actually perform very well. They are #1 in the country in interceptions per game (2.1/gm) and 24th in passing TDs allowed (1.1/gm). Additionally, they have an extremely underrated pass rush that's ranked 18th in sacks on the season (2.9/gm) so an average QB facing them throws twice as many interceptions as TDs and gets sacked 3 times a game. Their leading pass rusher, Jamie Blatnik, is averaging one sack per game and legitimately benches over 500 pounds.
Defense:Rushing: Run defense is their weakest component, allowing 187 yards per game on the ground and will need to improve for them to finish the year strong.
Their next two games against Baylor and Kansas State will test this as both teams run the ball a lot. I haven't handicapped these specific games in detail, but I expect the homecoming crowd to help push OKState on against Baylor and for Kansas State's offense to underperform the following week after what will likely be their first loss this week vs Oklahoma. After that, they have to go on the road to Texas Tech, but I suspect they will be very well prepared for this game, not taking TT lightly after what they did to Oklahoma. If OK State can navigate these three games and come out 3-0, even on 1-2 small-margin wins, I think the Cowboys will be in really good shape with a layup @ Iowa State, a bye, and then the showdown with Oklahoma in Week 14.
This is looking great. I just need Oregon to beat Stanford today and OK State is going to be in a great spot to sneak into the National Title Game
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#257
Originally posted by suicidekings
Week 11
Oregon +3.5 (-113) x2.5
Kansas +17.5 (+114) x1
Kansas ML (+816) x0.5
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suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#258
Texas A&M -5.5 (-104) x1
I'm pretty sure the Aggies are going to crush KState today...
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suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#259
Originally posted by suicidekings
Kansas +17.5 (+114) x1
Kansas ML (+816) x0.5
1-1 (+0.64)
Kansas got completely screwed over by the referees with a no-call on pretty blatant pass interference that would have given KU a chipshot fieldgoal for the win... Cost me 4.5u...
Comment
Love The Action
SBR Posting Legend
11-08-10
10952
#260
Originally posted by suicidekings
1-1 (+0.64)
Kansas got completely screwed over by the referees with a no-call on pretty blatant pass interference that would have given KU a chipshot fieldgoal for the win... Cost me 4.5u...
I feel like bad beats occur more in football (NCAAF and NFL) than any other sport. I guess it can be explained away by the sharp lines, but it just seems the bad beats are everywhere on Saturday's and Sunday's during football season.
Good luck on the rest of your plays. Love that OKST future right now
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#261
Originally posted by Love The Action
I feel like bad beats occur more in football (NCAAF and NFL) than any other sport. I guess it can be explained away by the sharp lines, but it just seems the bad beats are everywhere on Saturday's and Sunday's during football season.
Good luck on the rest of your plays. Love that OKST future right now
Absolutely. The value of a turnover or a penalty in football is so huge that they can change a game's outcome so easily... A turnover is worth about 55 yards of field position, or 4 points, which is HUGE relative to the respective value of a turnover/penalty in other sports. In basketball a turnover is worth 1.5 points (if we're being generous). Four points on a total averaging 49 (8%) vs 1.5 points on a total of 195 (0.8%).
I can at least take solace in knowing that KU was the right side in this game. A true favourite of 3 TDs should not be winning the game in OT.
Missing the NBA... but I'm warming up to NCAAB.
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suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#262
Originally posted by suicidekings
Oregon +3.5 (-113) x2.5
Stanford -2.5 (-108) x2.5
I've been feeling progressively more uneasy about the Oregon play all day. I really think this game is going to be tight and I'll take the chance on the middle here, limiting my exposure to a small loss on juice rather than trying to be a hero on a game that could be decided in the final seconds.
It's going to be a great game.
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suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#263
Originally posted by suicidekings
Stanford -2.5 (-108) x2.5
Oregon +3.5 (-113) x2.5
Stanford pk (+101) x2.5
Too good to pass on. At worst, this will be hedge material later.
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suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#264
Originally posted by suicidekings
Stanford pk (+101) x2.5
Too good to pass on. At worst, this will be hedge material later.
This was at 9:22 in the 1Q, 0-0, Oregon ball at their own 47.
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DanzeM
SBR Rookie
09-30-11
32
#265
was riding Kansas and Oregon with you SK. glad i didnt notice you'd started to feel uneasy about that play. Good weekend regardless mate.
I took the otherside on the A&M game, I just cant put money on them, just lacking in the heart department, something Kansas State doesn't have problems with.
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suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#266
Took a week off after shooting myself in the foot completely with Oregon/Stanford, playing some hoops instead. This week is a really big week for a lot of teams and I have a couple of games that really stand out to me.
Syracuse ML (+111) x1
Syracuse is just one win away from bowl eligibility. Syracuse's appearance in a bowl game last year came after a 5 year drought for the Orange. Coming into this season, their primary goal was to return to the postseason for the second year in a row. Coach Doug Marrone knows how important it is for the team and the program to finish strong as the Orange will be losing almost half their starters for 2012. With the opportunity of a bye week last week, Marrone intensified practices considerably in preparation for their final home game. Being the last home game, this is also Senior day at the Dome, and I expect the Orange to play a very strong game.
On the other side of the field, Cincinnati is not the same team without Zach Collaros. Butch Jones opened up the field this week for all of his QBs to earn the chance to start this game. Legeaux probably gets the nod again, but Luallen might sneak into the starter role here. Either way, both of these guys are very inexperienced. Without Collaros in the game as a dual threat, Cincinnati must rely heavily on Isaiah Pead and DJ Woods to make big plays. I think that when the offensive problems are initiated at QB due to inexperience, it's going to be really hard for the Bearcats to get over the hump here, on the road, in a game that has such great importance to their opponent. Cincinnati will almost definitely produce more than the 3 points they put up against Rutgers, but it's still won't be enough to win this game.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#267
6.5pt Teaser: Louisville +10 / Under 50 (+100) x1
Louisville ML (+155) x1
South Florida is in a tough spot. Five wins on the season and two chances to get themselves to bowl eligibility. Unfortunately, for this game against Louisville, BJ Daniels is not going to be playing. He didn't practice all week and Skip Holtz is not a believer in last minute starts. He's going to put his faith in Bobby Eveld again, who isn't a bad young QB, but is very inexperienced and doesn't bring the dual threat to the table like Daniels does. It gets worse for USF as their top receiver, Sterling Griffin is still out with an injury, two players (Marcus Shaw & Spencer Boyd) just got suspended for "in house issues", and the team will also be missing several other players from the defensive line and receiving corps. USF has some outstanding defensive players, but this will be the thinnest line they've had to offer all season, and I think that will show in the second half. Offensively, USF still has an excellent running game, but Louisville features one of the best run defenses in the country, limiting opponents to under 100 yards rushing per game on only 2.9 yards per carry.
As stated above, when a team features a mobile QB as their starter, and that player goes down to injury, you really see how important that player was to the offense (ie: Zach Collaros). I think USF is in a really bad spot this week and with one more chance next week against WVU, I don't think they will have a sense of urgency to have their injured players on the field if they're not 100%. I really like these plays tomorrow.
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og4667
SBR MVP
09-17-09
2438
#268
I think your spot on with the USF analysis. Curious to see what you think about Tulsa tomorrow, houston due for a loss.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#269
Leans
Eastern Michigan / NIU Under 65 - This is the first year in a long time that Eastern Michigan has been Bowl eligible (their last bowl appearance was 1987) and even though they have their 6 wins, I have to think that they'll play with some pride in this game to make up for the 71-3 thrashing they took from NIU last year. This year's Eastern Michigan team is VERY different than previous years. I still think NIU wins as they need the win to clinch the MAC West but I expect a lower scoring game that should stay under the current 65.
Vanderbilt -2 - Getting back to a bowl game would be a huge deal for Vandy here. With Jordan Rodgers in the picture now, the Commodores have a lot to be excited about. Not to say that this game isn't important for WF as well, but I think Vandy gives that extra effort to get in here.
Florida State -2.5 - I don't think Florida can compete with FSU right now. The Gators' season is in shambles due to the coaching transition and key injuries. They had trouble with Furman last week. I hesitate to bet this game because of the history between these two teams and the senior laden Florida team looking to salvage a little bit of pride, but I expect FSU to win this game. FSU is going to be a VERY good team next year.
Kansas +25.5 - One last chance to get a conference win after being SO close to beating Baylor. Missouri doesn't really have anything to play for here as they have bowl eligibility but are out of reach of the Big 12 title. Additionally, I would not be at all surprised if the team that's leaving the Big 12 next year for the SEC has a few extra flags thrown against them in this season finale. I've watched several Kansas games this year, and while the blowouts have gotten the attention, they've played very well in a few games (Baylor, Iowa State). Their last game was more about Texas A&M taking out a lot of frustration. I like them to play a strong game to close out the year.
Ohio State +7.5 & Parlay: Ohio State ML +250 / Under 45 - I see a pretty strong correlation here, worth a small play. For the last several years they've brutalized Michigan, and even though this has been a forgettable season for OSU, I really like them to pull this one out. Every team has certain opponents that they own, and whether things are going well or not, they can always draw on a little extra confidence when facing that team because they know them well and come into the game expecting to win. Michigan is another one of those teams that's stuck between not being able to win their division but already bowl eligible. I expect them to run a lot and take care of the ball.
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suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#270
Houston ML (-136) x1
Houston/Tulsa Under 77 (-110) x1
I don't care about the line movement or the arguments for Houston buckling under the pressure. That's all BS. Case Keenum and this Houston team (11 starting seniors) is not going to lay an egg in this game, with the chance to go 12-0 and have a historic season for this school. They're fighting for respect in the BCS, and next year this team will be a shadow of its former self (Much like Auburn last year, who knew the program would lose a lot of talent to graduation). This is their year, now or never (ie: several rebuilding years later).
The last two seasons, these teams have played very tight games, with Tulsa winning last year in Houston. I make this line to be Houston -3.5, but these teams are very close in their abilities. At the very least I expect this game to be competitive if not Houston putting their foot down. Numerous claims of trap games and fixes will follow when Tulsa starts fast, only to be overwhelmed by Houston later in the game.
Tulsa can definitely win this game with their high-tempo offense but then we're talking about a shootout, which I don't think this game will be. I think too much weight is being put on the line being what it is, and less into the matchup itself. The argument that has been applied to Houston regarding not playing anyone tough can also be applied to Tulsa in a somewhat different way. Tulsa played some very tough opponents early in the year in OU/OKState/Boise, but they got killed in those games. They lost by an average of 26 points and gave up 365 passing yards per game to three outstanding QBs. In these three games, they scored 56 total points, with only 13 of them coming in the first halves of the games when they were up against the best these three teams had to offer. The rest came in garbage time when the game was already lost. IMO, playing the tougher teams means very little if they weren't competitive in the games. Case Keenum is in the same company as Jones/Weeden/Moore and I just don't think Tulsa is going to be able to match offense with Houston. They know they're outgunned so they'll do what good teams do and try to play good defense and try to keep Keenum sitting on the bench as much as possible so he doesn't get in rhythm. I've decided to add a play on the Under to this game as well.
This is a huge game for both of these teams. The winner will play Southern Miss in the CUSA title game and both are trying to go a perfect 8-0 in conference (and Houston 12-0 overall).
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Dexter
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
12-24-08
25829
#271
you really think tulsa feels they are outgunned and will change their up-tempo style that's gotten them to this point? i would be shocked to see them running down the play clock/running the ball and playing the keep away game.
39-37 houston and we both win, so hopefully thats the final.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#272
Originally posted by Dexter
you really think tulsa feels they are outgunned and will change their up-tempo style that's gotten them to this point? i would be shocked to see them running down the play clock/running the ball and playing the keep away game.
39-37 houston and we both win, so hopefully thats the final.
It depends, I guess. I think each team's success in their first couple of offensive series will decide how the game will play out. I do think that this is the kind of game where you see the defensive playmakers really putting their stamp on the game, and if the defensive squads step up to apply early pressure, the game could very well take on a different tone than what we expect. Regardless of what they say publicly, I feel certain that Tulsa knows they're the underdog in an important game, and the underdog can rarely afford to be predictable. The up-tempo option is always there if they need it.
If I'm a coach trying to gameplan for a matchup with either of these teams, I know that a shootout is a suboptimal solution because you're allowing your opponent to operate in the way that they're comfortable, which is really giving up a lot to a potent offensive team. I think disrupting the other team's rhythm is a key to winning in every sport. Make your opponent uncomfortable and you win, whether it's making Keenum sit on the bench or throwing an 0-2 fastball high and tight to keep the batter honest. Make the elements that are normally subconscious actions the things they have to focus on.
However I'm sure all my analysis will go out the window when the game starts. I would be very happy with a 39-37 final.
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#273
Iowa +9.5 (-107) x0.5
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Dexter
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
12-24-08
25829
#274
if you really like this under you can add more at a much better number. this thing is flying towards 80 as i expected....
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suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#275
Originally posted by Dexter
if you really like this under you can add more at a much better number. this thing is flying towards 80 as i expected....
But holding steady at 78 at Pinny and 77.5 at Greek, which are where my money is at. I often think that I need more outs, but I never get around to it.
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suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#276
Originally posted by suicidekings
6.5pt Teaser: Louisville +10 / Under 50 (+100) x1
Louisville ML (+155) x1
Parlay: Louisville ML / U 44.5 (+463) x0.5
Fighting the steam, but I like this a lot.
Comment
Dexter
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
12-24-08
25829
#277
Originally posted by suicidekings
But holding steady at 78 at Pinny and 77.5 at Greek, which are where my money is at. I often think that I need more outs, but I never get around to it.
how can you play online and not have a bodog acct? get on that. i see you make plenty of non-public plays. you'll benefit from it over the course of a season. i have 1 square local and one sharp.
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suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#278
LIVE (7-0 Arkansas, 14:54 2Q) LSU ML (-180) x2
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suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#279
Originally posted by suicidekings
LIVE (7-0 Arkansas, 14:54 2Q) LSU ML (-180) x2
Make that 14-0 Arkansas off an LSU fumble...
Comment
suicidekings
SBR Hall of Famer
03-23-09
9962
#280
Originally posted by suicidekings
Iowa +9.5 (-107) x0.5
6.5pt Teaser: Louisville +10 / Under 50 (+100) x1
Parlay: Louisville ML / U 44.5 (+463) x0.5 Louisville ML (+155) x1
Houston ML (-136) x1
Houston/Tulsa Under 77 (-110) x1
LSU ML (-180) x2
4-3 (+3.52u)
The Houston game went pretty much as I expected, although the MOV was a little higher. Houston won that game with their defense. Once they get the chance to play with a lead, they're REALLY hard to stop. The line movement was a fraud, and it took a lot of willpower not to absolutely unload on the Houston -1 that was available right before kickoff... But wtv. I do a lot better when I stick to smaller plays.