Suicidekings 2011 CFB Thread

[suicidekings]

On a sidenote, this book is amazing. A solid addition to any sports bettors library.

[suicidekings]

Starting with a game like WVU tonight. I think it's only going to continue. Playing road faves long term just isn't profitable as far as I'm concerned, yet look at all of the road faves on the board tomorrow that are (again) getting hammered by the public.

Perhaps. As unlikely as this run has been for these teams, it's also extremely unlikely that it will all fall apart in one day. This has been an extreme year, but every season there are always a few remaining unbeatens that get picked off one at a time in the second half of the season.

I think an underlying factor to this season is the QB competition that's spurring some of it on. Kellen Moore, Case Keenum, Andrew Luck, Landry Jones, and Russell Wilson all pushing to be the best QB in the nation, and seeing as they're all unbeaten and jostling for support in the BCS rankings, it's just intensifying the competition and these teams are putting in that extra effort, where normally they would cruise to a victory, maybe giving up that 7-10 points in the 4Q to allow the dog to cover.

Houston obviously doesn't really matter, but Luck/Wilson/Moore really need to have undefeated seasons to launch themselves to a possible national title game. LSU/Alabama/Oklahoma have the inside track here. So with that additional motivation in mind, I feel like this streak will not just end. I actually think if you picked 7-8 top teams and did a series of roundrobin parlays of 3-4-5 teams, it would probably be quite profitable in the current environment.

[No coincidences]

Perhaps. As unlikely as this run has been for these teams, it's also extremely unlikely that it will all fall apart in one day. This has been an extreme year, but every season there are always a few remaining unbeatens that get picked off one at a time in the second half of the season.

I think an underlying factor to this season is the QB competition that's spurring some of it on. Kellen Moore, Case Keenum, Andrew Luck, Landry Jones, and Russell Wilson all pushing to be the best QB in the nation, and seeing as they're all unbeaten and jostling for support in the BCS rankings, it's just intensifying the competition and these teams are putting in that extra effort, where normally they would cruise to a victory, maybe giving up that 7-10 points in the 4Q to allow the dog to cover.

Houston obviously doesn't really matter, but Luck/Wilson/Moore really need to have undefeated seasons to launch themselves to a possible national title game. LSU/Alabama/Oklahoma have the inside track here. So with that additional motivation in mind, I feel like this streak will not just end. I actually think if you picked 7-8 top teams and did a series of roundrobin parlays of 3-4-5 teams, it would probably be quite profitable in the current environment.

I can't disagree with any of this until it's proven otherwise.

[No coincidences]

On a sidenote, this book is amazing. A solid addition to any sports bettors library.

Interesting.

[Dexter]

Houston obviously doesn't really matter, but Luck/Wilson/Moore really need to have undefeated seasons to launch themselves to a possible national title game. LSU/Alabama/Oklahoma have the inside track here. So with that additional motivation in mind, I feel like this streak will not just end. I actually think if you picked 7-8 top teams and did a series of roundrobin parlays of 3-4-5 teams, it would probably be quite profitable in the current environment.

i think it absolutely matters for houston. they can easily go undefeated and make some BCS noise.

im on them tomorrow as they are the type of team that needs to run up scores and has the offense to do it.

[suicidekings]

Typically [the random events at the end of the game] should even out over the course of the year. I think when you have the best of it, it's going to go against you more often than not because if you've done good work, with two minutes to go in the game, you're going to have the game covered, so if there's some randomness involved at the end, it's probably going to go against you. So if you have a team that's hung on the entire way and the other team decides to tack on a touchdown late, you lose. If you bet a big favourite that blows them out and they let up at the end and the other team gets in the back door, you lose. Both of those instances you've done good work and have lost, and if you're any good at this, typically, this is going to happen more often [against you rather than in your favour], so I would say the better you are, the unluckier you'll be because more often than not as the game unwinds, your work will be positive.

- Alan Boston

It comes off sounding like an excuse, but I suspect there's a lot to support it, with random occurrences not breaking evenly (independent of your position) but rather pushing back towards the mean over an increasing sample size. Or maybe it's bullshit. Either way I like it.

[suicidekings]

i think it absolutely matters for houston. they can easily go undefeated and make some BCS noise. im on them tomorrow as they are the type of team that needs to run up scores and has the offense to do it.

True. I meant that they're not really playing for the same prize as the other teams (National Title) and even an undefeated season will garner less respect because they played a weak schedule. However the more 12-0 teams that are out there, the more pressure will be on the BCS to accommodate them. As it stands right now, I think Houston and Boise both have a very strong chance to go undefeated and Alabama most likely will. Oklahoma has a very tough road ahead, as does Wisconsin. LSU will lose to Alabama.

I miss Week 1, when the disparity between UCLA and Houston was not fully understood and we got to enjoy Houston -3... These big spreads are so counter-intuitive.

[suicidekings]

Week 8 NCAAF Power Ratings and Midseason Schedule Analysis

So I tried repeatedly to post this data in a way that looked good, but it would appear that the forum can't handle data tables (or the method is above my head). Then I tried posting it in the blog section here, which is slightly better but still a bit of a mess, so I just attached the data in an xls file.

The power ratings show individual team power ratings for all 120 teams, SOS for weeks 1-7, SOS for weeks 8-14, and overall team rating. Power ratings are derived by grading every game played, with each game weighted for strength of opponent and home/away. Win/Loss record has no bearing on the power ratings.

[suicidekings]

Week 8 NCAAF Power Ratings and Midseason Schedule Analysis (cont'd)

Overall Rankings

1. ALABAMA 238.6
2. BOISE STATE 237.2
3. LSU 236.2
4. OKLAHOMA 235.7
5. OREGON 231.9
6. TEXAS A&M 228.9
7. STANFORD 228.6
8. NOTRE DAME 227.3
9. OKLAHOMA STATE 225.9
10. WISCONSIN 225.5
11. MICHIGAN 223.9
12. ARIZONA STATE 219.3
13. GEORGIA 218.8
14. ARKANSAS 218.3
15. FLORIDA STATE 217.6
16. MISSOURI 215.8
17. MICHIGAN STATE 214.9
18. SOUTH CAROLINA 214.0
19. FLORIDA 213.9
20. CLEMSON 213.6
21. TENNESSEE 213.4
22. TEXAS 212.8
23. TCU 212.6
24. WEST VIRGINIA 212.5
25. TOLEDO 212.1

I'm sure a lot of people would disagree with a lot of these, but remember, these are a product of both power rating and schedule, so some teams rise and fall dramatically in the final ranking depending on who they've played. For example, Wisconsin is #2 in straight power rating, but falls to #10 because their schedule has been so weak.

Breaking down the schedule into first half / second half shows a big disparity in what some teams have faced so far and what they have to look forward to

Teams on the Rise

Boise State: So far, I have Boise playing the 39th toughest schedule through Week 7 (it obviously didn't hurt them), but for the rest of the season, I have them playing the 117th ranked schedule over the last 7 weeks. They will go undefeated and continue to roll as they try to bludgeon their way to the top.

Arizona State: #11 ranked first half schedule, 91st ranked second half schedule.

Florida State: First half: #17, Second Half: #75

San Diego State: First Half: #36 , Second Half: #115

Tulsa: First Half: #6, Second Half: #50

Toledo: First Half: #30, Second Half: #102

Maryland: First Half: #7, Second Half: #57

Arizona: First Half: #1, Second Half: #63. We saw this in action on Thursday night.


Teams that will Fall

Washington State: First Half: #97, Second Half: #29

Washington: First Half: #89, Second Half: #18

USC: First Half: #77, Second Half: #10

Purdue: First Half: #104, Second Half: #7

Texas Tech: First Half: #103, Second Half: #4

Baylor: First Half: #69, Second Half: #6

Illinois: First Half: #79, Second Half: #12

Georgia Tech: First Half: #108, Second Half: #24

Cincinnati: First Half: #115, Second Half: #46

Stanford: First Half: #100, Second Half: #25

Wisconsin: First Half: #119, Second Half: #45


Coasting

Houston: First Half: #111, Second Half: #99

Temple: First Half: #109, Second Half: #105

Southern Miss: First Half: #101, Second Half: #92

Arkansas State: First Half: #102, Second Half: #119

Louisiana Lafayette: First Half: #114, Second Half: #104

Ohio: First Half: #112, Second Half: #98

Eastern Michigan: First Half: #99, Second Half: #107


Straight Fvcked

Iowa State: First Half: #31, Second Half: #2, as if they weren't bad enough...

Oregon State: First Half: #29, Second Half: #3

Auburn: First Half: #8, Second Half: #1. Games against LSU, Georgia, and Alabama.

Penn State: First Half: #23, Second Half: #11

Ohio State: First Half: #27, Second Half: #9

Florida: First Half: #16, Second Half: #13 Games vs Georgia, South Carolina, and FSU

[suicidekings]

The Unbeatens

Clemson: I think they stay undefeated until the last week and lose to South Carolina.

Oklahoma: They need to not only win the tough games ahead, but really impress the pollsters, and have a great chance to vault into #2 in the BCS if they destroy TAMU the same week as either LSU or Alabama lose to each other.

Oklahoma State: Their schedule gets progressively easier towards the end of the season, but their next three games all have upset potential.

Kansas State: After Kansas they have 4 tough games (Oklahoma, OK State, TAMU, Texas), in which they will probably go 2-2 at best.

Houston: The Cougars are going to coast to a 12-0 season with no one to really get in their way.

Wisconsin: Their second half schedule is full of tough games. I still like them as an 11+ win team.

Boise State: Undefeated season. Book it.

Stanford: Their schedule is about to get a lot tougher, including games against Oregon and Notre Dame. I can't envision them winning both of these games.

LSU: They will lose to Alabama. Everyone is so high on them, and they should be because they can demolish virtually every other team in the FBS. But they won't win it all this year.

Alabama: 12-0 season, National Title winner.

[suicidekings]

NIU -14 (-109) x0.5
Nevada -11.5 (-105) x0.5
ULM -6 (-107) 0.5

[Dexter]

nice...on ULM myself

[Love The Action]

On a sidenote, this book is amazing. A solid addition to any sports bettors library.

MLB Umps are naturally biased to the home team, but replay pretty much eliminates that advantage in some instances.

[Love The Action]

Overall Rankings

1. ALABAMA 238.6
2. BOISE STATE 237.2
3. LSU 236.2
4. OKLAHOMA 235.7
5. OREGON 231.9
6. TEXAS A&M 228.9
7. STANFORD 228.6
8. NOTRE DAME 227.3
9. OKLAHOMA STATE 225.9
10. WISCONSIN 225.5
11. MICHIGAN 223.9
12. ARIZONA STATE 219.3
13. GEORGIA 218.8
14. ARKANSAS 218.3
15. FLORIDA STATE 217.6
16. MISSOURI 215.8
17. MICHIGAN STATE 214.9
18. SOUTH CAROLINA 214.0
19. FLORIDA 213.9
20. CLEMSON 213.6
21. TENNESSEE 213.4
22. TEXAS 212.8
23. TCU 212.6
24. WEST VIRGINIA 212.5
25. TOLEDO 212.1

I'm sure a lot of people would disagree with a lot of these, but remember, these are a product of both power rating and schedule, so some teams rise and fall dramatically in the final ranking depending on who they've played. For example, Wisconsin is #2 in straight power rating, but falls to #10 because their schedule has been so weak.

Breaking down the schedule into first half / second half shows a big disparity in what some teams have faced so far and what they have to look forward to

Teams on the Rise

Boise State: So far, I have Boise playing the 39th toughest schedule through Week 7 (it obviously didn't hurt them), but for the rest of the season, I have them playing the 117th ranked schedule over the last 7 weeks. They will go undefeated and continue to roll as they try to bludgeon their way to the top.

Arizona State: #11 ranked first half schedule, 91st ranked second half schedule.

Florida State: First half: #17, Second Half: #75

San Diego State: First Half: #36 , Second Half: #115

Tulsa: First Half: #6, Second Half: #50

Toledo: First Half: #30, Second Half: #102

Maryland: First Half: #7, Second Half: #57

Arizona: First Half: #1, Second Half: #63. We saw this in action on Thursday night.


Teams that will Fall

Washington State: First Half: #97, Second Half: #29

Washington: First Half: #89, Second Half: #18

USC: First Half: #77, Second Half: #10

Purdue: First Half: #104, Second Half: #7

Texas Tech: First Half: #103, Second Half: #4

Baylor: First Half: #69, Second Half: #6

Illinois: First Half: #79, Second Half: #12

Georgia Tech: First Half: #108, Second Half: #24

Cincinnati: First Half: #115, Second Half: #46

Stanford: First Half: #100, Second Half: #25

Wisconsin: First Half: #119, Second Half: #45


Coasting

Houston: First Half: #111, Second Half: #99

Temple: First Half: #109, Second Half: #105

Southern Miss: First Half: #101, Second Half: #92

Arkansas State: First Half: #102, Second Half: #119

Louisiana Lafayette: First Half: #114, Second Half: #104

Ohio: First Half: #112, Second Half: #98

Eastern Michigan: First Half: #99, Second Half: #107


Straight Fvcked

Iowa State: First Half: #31, Second Half: #2, as if they weren't bad enough...

Oregon State: First Half: #29, Second Half: #3

Auburn: First Half: #8, Second Half: #1. Games against LSU, Georgia, and Alabama.

Penn State: First Half: #23, Second Half: #11

Ohio State: First Half: #27, Second Half: #9

Florida: First Half: #16, Second Half: #13 Games vs Georgia, South Carolina, and FSU

I have to look at this closer later in the day when I have more time, but thanks for the work.

My first impression is that Missouri is a little high. All of the advanced stats I use which take into account scheduling put them in the 35-40 range. Good stuff, thanks.

[suicidekings]

NIU -14 (-109) x0.5
Nevada -11.5 (-105) x0.5
ULM -6 (-107) 0.5

nice...on ULM myself

These three are straight system plays as teams that have been trending upwards recently vs teams that have been trending downwards. No other capping besides that, hence the half unit plays, but quickly looking them over, I like all three of them.

Adding one more to this group:

UTEP -10 (-110) x0.5

Temple would have been included but I already had a play on it above, and Oregon State & Purdue would also fit this group as well, however the there's no advantage in either line as the books are on to OSU and the Purdue line has been beaten down 3 points. Jumping in late on +3.5 when I could have had +6.5 just makes no sense.

[suicidekings]

Eastern Michigan ML (+393) x0.5

On the surface, this line seems like a fair line, but when you look closer at the games each of these squads have played, Western Michigan is VERY weak in run defense. In all three of their losses, their opponents have pounded the ball through the soft WM defensive line. Last week NIU absolutely annihilated the WM defense, who gave up a school record 494 yards on the ground. EM's offense isn't as potent as NIU, but they do feature a run-heavy offense that matches up very well with WM.

WM is sure to be pissed after the thrashing they took last week, but there's only so much you can do in a week to improve, and I expect WM will still be soft this week after NIU shook their confidence. WM is not a strong road team and this is their second road game in a row. EM, on the other hand, is playing with a huge amount of confidence right now, making their best start this season since 1995. This is EM's homecoming game and the crowd will likely be the biggest and best that EM has seen in a long time, and I really think EM is a live dog here with a great chance to win this game. At almost 4 to 1, I feel like it definitely warrants a small play.

[suicidekings]

Eastern Michigan ML (+393) x0.5

W. Michigan 2H -10 (+134) x0.5

EM wins: +1.47u
WM wins by 4+: +0.17u
WM wins by 1-2 is very unlikely unless there are 3+ total scores in the 2H and that just doesn't seem all that likely to me.

[suicidekings]

6pt Teaser (+700) x0.25

- FSU -13.5
- TAMU -15.5
- Oklahoma -23
- Alabama -23.5
- LSU -15
- Wisconsin -1

Parlay (+4680) x0.25

- FSU -19.5
- TAMU -21.5
- Oklahoma -29
- Alabama -29.5
- LSU -21
- Wisconsin -7

Just a little fun lottery ticket.

[suicidekings]

LSU -21 (+103) x1

It's a day to make a statement, and Moseley/Frazier are going to have a really long day against the LSU defense...

[suicidekings]

Houston 1H -13.5 (-110) x1

This game won't be competitive at all, but I think the 1H line is a better play than the full game.

[suicidekings]

NC State 2H +3 (-110) x0.5

[suicidekings]

Memphis 2H ML (+330) x0.25
East Carolina 2H ML (+274) x0.25

[suicidekings]

10/21

Southern Miss -3 (-110) x1

Adding:

Southern Miss -3 (-105) x2 for a total of x3 at (-107)

I love this play. Homecoming night game, conference rival, Southern Miss coming off a bye while SMU is coming off an upset win over the softer-than-advertised UCF. This is an off-the-radar game and the line has been unmoving all week despite heavier action on SMU, and is one of the only games Pinny had listed today that still has a collar on the betting limits. I like it a lot.

[suicidekings]

New Mexico State +23.5 (-105) x0.5

[suicidekings]

LIVE(5:55 2Q, 14-9 Wisky, MSU ball): Michigan State ML (+338) x1

[suicidekings]

LIVE(5:55 2Q, 14-9 Wisky, MSU ball): Michigan State ML (+338) x1

Wisconsin pk (+149) x3.38u

MSU: 1 to win 3.38
Wisc: 3.38 to win 5.04u - 1u = freeroll to win 4.04u if the Badgers win.

[suicidekings]

Wisconsin pk (+149) x3.38u

MSU: 1 to win 3.38
Wisc: 3.38 to win 5.04u - 1u = freeroll to win 4.04u if the Badgers win.

Well that was just crazy shit...

[suicidekings]

Oklahoma 2H -15.5 (-115) x0.5

[suicidekings]

10/21: 0-3 (-4.89u)

Notre Dame -8.5 (-103) x1
Arkansas -16.5 (+105) x1
Temple -13.5 (-108) x1
NIU -14 (-109) x0.5
Nevada -11.5 (-105) x0.5
ULM -6 (-107) 0.5
Wisconsin pk (+149) x3.38u
W. Michigan 2H -10 (+134) x0.5
East Carolina 2H ML (+274) x0.25
Parlay (0.25u to win 10.75u)
Parlay (0.25u to win 11.38u)
6pt Teaser (+700) x0.25
Parlay (+4680) x0.25

Southern Miss -3 (-107) x3
Oklahoma State 1H -3.5 (-110) x1
Kansas State -10.5 (-102) x1
LSU -21 (+103) x1
Houston 1H -13.5 (-110) x1
NC State 2H +3 (-110) x0.5
Memphis 2H ML (+330) x0.25
Eastern Michigan ML (+393) x0.5
UTEP -10 (-110) x0.5
Michigan State ML (+338) x1

10/22: 10-13 (+3.36u)
YTD: 45-49-1 (+2.86u)

Pending
Oklahoma 2H -15.5 (-115) x0.5
New Mexico State +23.5 (-105) x0.5

I got greedy with the Badgers... I maintain that at that point in the game, it was the right move.

[marzayy]

any oregon state 2nd half play?

[suicidekings]

any oregon state 2nd half play?

Lean to OSU, but not going to bother. I missed out on the original game ML. Not worth it now.

[suicidekings]

WEEK 9

Vanderbilt +10.5 (-110) x1
Kansas State +14.5 (-105) x1
Akron +10 (-108) x0.5

[suicidekings]

Oklahoma 2H -15.5 (-115) x0.5
New Mexico State +23.5 (-105) x0.5

1-1 (-0.08u)

YTD: 46-50-1 (+2.78u)

[suicidekings]

I posted this in another thread discussing what the Alabama-LSU line would be. I stand by it.

Alabama -5.5

Followed by a million people on here talking about value and "taking the points", and saying "No WAY LSU loses by more than 3", resulting in an LSU frenzy that will deflate the line temporarily, to be followed by Alabama money coming in throughout the week, driving the line back up to near where it opens for gameday, along with a lot of Alabama ML action from those scared to lay the points.

Then on gameday, the Tide will win by 10+ making the whole exercise pointless. LSU enjoys a pretty big divide between them and most of their competition, however Alabama is several steps above LSU here...

[suicidekings]

WEEK 9

Vanderbilt +10.5 (-110) x1
Kansas State +14.5 (-105) x1
Akron +10 (-108) x0.5

UConn +10.5 (-108) x0.5