Line is favoring Fresno St...why??? Utah St look like a better team on paper and understand it's a road game.
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10/18
FIU 1H +1.5 (+102) x0.5Comment -
Yeah, I had them ranked substantially lower than the market prior to the Alabama & LSU games, but thought that they still had enough backbone and talent to bounce back against a substantially softer opponent in Auburn. I honestly have no idea what to expect from them after their bye week, but won't be laying money on them anytime soon.Comment -
That Rutgers game was horrible! On the first possession Rutgers missed a field, on their second possession they threw a pick at Navy's one yard line, they went onto to turn the ball over a few more times and missed another field goal with 40 seconds left that would have given us the cover. A truly ugly game if ever I saw one if you were backing Rutgers....Comment -
Everything I hear about that day makes me glad I missed all the early games. It's unfortunate when a team blows opportunities early like that. A team like Rutgers doesn't really have a culture of winning and mental toughness, so a little bit of early bad luck can completely ruin them for the game.Comment -
Arkansas State 2H -3 (-110) x0.5
The opportunities FIU squandered in the 2H are going to come back to haunt them here. ASU has found their rhythm offensively now. Just a feeling..Comment -
Week 8
Notre Dame -8.5 (-103) x1
I love this play. USC is having a pretty good season on the surface, going 5-1 so far and coming off a big blowout win against California. Unfortunately for the Trojans this puts them in a bit of a bad spot because they now have a tough non-conference game against Notre Dame on the road before facing Stanford the following week. Conversely Notre Dame is coming off a bye so they've had two weeks to prepare for this game.
I find nothing impressive about the wins USC has had this year, almost giving up the game to Minnesota in Week 1 (being outscored 14-0 in the 2H), allowing 41 points to Arizona, and beating a crappy Syracuse team. Their loss came at the hands of Arizona State, who manhandled them 43-22. They went into their bye week having allowed 84 points in their last two games and managed to stop the bleeding with a 30-9 win over Cal, however that game included 20 USC points on 5 Cal turnovers (including a failed 4th down conversion by Cal at their own 32 yard line returned for a USC TD).
Notre Dame is only 4-2 this season, but could really be 6-0 at this point despite their tough schedule. Close losses to USF and Michigan in Weeks 1&2 got ND off to a poor start, but since then have outscored their opponents 143-68. Additionally, Brian Kelly is 11-2 coming off a bye in his coaching career, and I expect the extra week of rest/planning will result in a very strong performance from the Irish this week.
Southern Miss -3 (-110) x1
Southern Miss is a team that gets no respect, but they're quietly having a solid season, building on the progress they've made in the last 2 years. They're currently 1-1 in CUSA games, but 5-1 overall. They have the benefit of not having to play Houston this year and so the favourable schedule coupled with the strong start makes them a strong contender to win the CUSA East. On saturday night, they host their toughest remaining opponent, SMU in their homecoming game. S.Miss is coming out of a bye week so they've had two weeks to prepare while SMU is coming off back to back big wins against TCU and UCF, in a good spot for a letdown.
The bye week arrived as they were playing great football, but their running backs (which are the backbone of their offense) were pretty banged up in the first half of the season, so I expect the team to be not only healthier than they have been in weeks, but also mentally prepared to put forward a big effort in front of the homecoming crowd.
SMU is also a good team, but they've really struggled on the road for a long time. By contrast, since the start of the 2009 season, Southern Miss is 13-2 at home (3-0 this season) and the crowd will be very amped up for this game, lending all the help they can.
I think -3 is a bad line for this game, owing to the general lack of respect Southern Miss receives, and to the publicity of SMU upsetting TCU. This game presents a lot of advantages to Southern Miss and I feel like they take this game solidly, winning by a touchdown or more.Comment -
10/20
UAB +17 (-110) x0.5
UCLA ML (+188) x0.5Comment -
Kansas State -10.5 (-102) x1
Parlay (0.25u to win 10.75u)
- West Virginia -14
- Arkansas -15.5
- Miami FL -2.5
- Temple -13.5
- Texas A&M -20.5
- Oklahoma State -6.5
Parlay (0.25u to win 11.38u)
- Wisconsin -7
- Arkansas -15.5
- Texas A&M -20.5
- Oklahoma State -6.5
- Kansas State -10.5
- LSU -21
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10/21
West Virginia -14 (-108) x2Comment -
You picked an interesting week to go with a lot of public plays SK.
You think the books get smashed again this week?Comment -
The parlays are just for fun, and definitely side with the prevailing trends. I have zero interest in public betting numbers right now. There's so much publicity in the betting world surrounding the ridiculous success rate of the big favourites at the moment that I'm confident the numbers are being skewed by people trying to cash in on the trend, thereby making the numbers even less relevant than they normally are.
What might have been 70% a few weeks ago is now 90%. It just doesn't pay for the books to skew their lines too much against the public teams because eventually these teams are going to lose. Runs like this happen, but as soon as the books start overadjusting, they get themselves into real trouble.
So I guess yes, I think the books get raped by most of the big public teams again this week. I cap my games and pay no attention to public % for the most part.Comment -
Missouri is getting too much credit. They performed well in their three games against legit opponents (ASU, OU, KSU), going 2-1 ATS, but just because they were undervalued in those games, doesn't mean they're undervalued here. I think OK State comes out trying to deal a knockout blow early, which is why I like the 1H line better. I feel like Missouri will go into the half down, and regroup enough to make the game competitive. I just don't think it's going to be enough to cover against OK State.Comment -
Allowing 250 passing yards a game with 7 TDs given up compared to 12 interceptions. QBs aren't hurting the OK State defense that much. Missouri is more of a running team that can't convert 3rd downs effectively. OK State is one of those teams that has such a dominant offense, they don't need to play a lot of defense, but that's not the same thing as them not being able to play defense when their opponent needs to be stopped. The OK State defensive stats are somewhat misleading.Comment -
Rutgers ML (-106) x1Comment -
why do you think books get smashed when "public plays" win?
the $100-$500 tickets that "squares" make (which make up the public %'s we look at) on teams like Boise get offset by the $1k-$100K (walters) plays on the dogs by sharps.
or, the true squares get drilled following a move from 30 to 33. sharps win -30, squares lose -33.Comment -
To be honest, I'm pretty much done with even looking at public betting numbers. They're such a point of obsession for so many people, but the pretense that they're the window to profit is such bullshit. Guys thinking they're being "sharp" because imbalanced action and an unmoving line say so when there are so many factors that define how a line is set and moved by the books.
I would much rather spend my energy trying to emulate the guys that are moving the lines in the first place by doing my homework and hitting the value when I see it.Comment -
It shows in your work, and that's why I respect your capping.
My approach involves having most of my power ratings and other modeling done before the lines are even released on sunday night, then focusing on the off-lines first, along with any games I have circled for the week. Then I work my way through the rest of the card over the course of the week to see if anything sticks out to me.
Then I make idiot plays like WVU tonight on a whim and shoot myself in the foot
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Just got home from dinner and was fortunate enough to read these comments before checking out anything else. Thank you.
Exactly what I've been saying in my threads for sometime now. Develop a process, spot the value, beat closers and you will profit long term. Keep up the good work gentlemen. You guys get it
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I'm disgusted with myself right now. Rutgers I can live with as I was gambling on a rookie QB. The WVU line came out for me as WVU -14.5 with a total of 60, (ie: zero value on the play) and just rolled with it on a hunch, totally in contrast to the conversation above. Too over-eager to get into the weekend
10/21: 0-3 (-4.89u)Comment -
Tomato posted this article a few weeks ago, and it wasn't much different last week, where the Top-10 to 15 teams covered with ease again:
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There are books in the red right now with respect to college football and certain books are pulling the MLs for some teams off the board entirely. On the whole, NFL and college football are the most profitable sports for the books so even though a lot of them are still profiting, it's eating heavily into where they make the most money on the year.
I'm pretty confident that by the end of the year things will be rosy again for them as week after week people are leaning more and more into the faves, and that kind of thing just can't last. Tough conference games in the second half of the season are going to right the ship.Comment
