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QB sneak on 4th & 1 in the 1Q at midfield... Spurrier's not off to a great start...Comment -
Boise State -27 (-103) x1
Tulsa is reeling right now, missing players due to injuries and suspensions, coming off a thrashing from OK State, and now having to play on the blue turf in Boise against a Bronco team that has demolished everyone they've faced so far this season but is still being challenged by Chris Peterson to be better defensively. Tulsa just isn't going to have enough in the tank tonight to hang with the Broncos for the full 60 minutes.Comment -
Week 5
Arkansas +3 (-110) x5
Virginia Tech -6.5 (-110) x1Comment -
Other interesting lines I might play:
Auburn +11.5 @ South Carolina: The Gamecocks have a big problem named Stephen Garcia. He looked absolutely terrible against Vandy this weekend. I don't really know what to think about this line because both teams have serious issues. I tend to think the SC defense will win the game for them, but they will not cover the spread.
Georgia Tech -12 @ NC State: Cincinnati tore NC State apart last week. GT will do the same, but -12 on the road is a steep line. Glennon is mistake prone but has a strong arm. The NC defense is banged up and I just don't think they can handle GT. This opened at -11 and quickly moved. I like GT, but I don't know about this number. The Over seems like the way to go.
Michigan State @ Ohio State -3: I think I like OSU here. MSU is tough, but the Buckeyes have absolutely owned the Spartans. MSU has the advantage of going into a bye the following week, whereas OSU has to face Nebraska the next week. I think OSU will really get up for these two games, starting with a strong performance this week. There's early action on MSU so hopefully I'll get -2.5 here.
Texas -10 @ Iowa State: I'm a big fan of the new look Texas team. I don't think they get nearly enough respect, but they're well on their way to erasing the memory of last season. I would like them a lot here but they have Oklahoma the following week. I suspect the Texas first half line will cover easily, but once the victory is assured, they will not take chances with OU next.
Alabama -4 @ Florida: Florida will not beat Alabama. The line has already dropped from 4.5 and I'm debating playing this at Bama -4 now. The line is very fair, but situationally, I think Florida is in a tough spot here with Alabama and @LSU back to back. Alabama already crushed Arkansas last week and has Vandy the following week, so with a big win under their belts already and an easy game to follow, I really like Alabama to impose their will on Florida here.
Nebraska +9.5 @ Wisconsin: Wisconsin looks like a great bet here, but this line is very inflated compared to the preseason Wisc -2.5. I'm not comfortable laying that many points because despite their current defensive issues, Nebraska is one of the best teams in the country and this is a big game. I feel like taking the points is the better bet, but I don't really know...Comment -
texas wont be looking past iowa state or taking it easy at any time thanks to the beat down they got in austin last year.Comment -
Couldn't agree more re: Garcia. He's nothing short of terrible.
Texas 1Q might be the bet of the Millennium, given the revenge factor and how awful Jantz has been early in games so far this year.Comment -
USF @ Pitt -2.5?Comment -
Pittsburgh ML (+128) x2Comment -
The more I look at USF, the more I think they're a fraud that will be exposed sooner or later. On the surface, their numbers look great, with a potent offense and stingy defense. Pittsburgh has been less impressive statswise, especially being uncharacteristically weak in defense while trying to adjust to the new system brought in by the new HC and co-DCs (All came together from Tulsa). However, when you look at each team's offensive & defensive efficiency, the teams are not far off. Pittsburgh is allowing 10.7 yards per completion to USF's 9.8. USF is allowing 2.7 yards per carry rushing to Pittsburgh's 3.1. USF has also benefited from a +8 TO margin compared to Pittsburgh's -2, most of which resulted in excellent starting field position for USF, if not a direct score. USF has benefited from some very big plays as well this year:
@Notre Dame
A 96 yard TD return off an ND fumble at the USF 4 yard line (ND had a 3rd & goal at the USF 1 yd line). This play was the difference in the game and otherwise USF really struggled to move the ball against ND, being outgained in total yards 2 to 1.
vs Florida A&M
USF scored on an 84 yard TD pass on a 1st & 24 from their own 16 yard line after a fumble that they were very fortunate to recover. They also had a 43 yard TD pass, a 56 yard TD run, recovered a fumble at the FAMU 23 yard line which they would convert to a TD, and all told had 9 offensive plays of 20 yards or more.
All told, they destroyed FAMU and UTEP, putting up 1320 total yards and 122 points in these two games where their opponents were both very inferior teams. Ball State was a good win against a slightly below average team (~85th). However when we come back to the only decent team they've faced so far, Notre Dame (~40th), the Irish really controlled the game and USF was very lucky to steal a win after being held to 1 TD and 5 punts on 7 2H drives.
USF started the season ranked 50th in the FBS and are now sitting at 16th. Given their relatively weak schedule, I really believe that they're receiving far too much respect right now and they will not be able to sustain the levels of production that they've shown so far.
As for Pittsburgh, the Panthers have had a slightly tougher schedule so far, having to play @Iowa and facing ND in Week 4 when they were more composed, compared to USF facing a chaotic Irish team in Week 1. Both of Pittsburgh's losses came from 4Q rallies by their opponents, with key PIT penalties keeping 2 consecutive Iowa 4Q drives alive which would eventually be converted into TDs. Against Notre Dame, the offensive line allowed their QB to be sacked 6 times including twice in their final drive in the 4Q for 9 & 11 yards. All in all, they're playing below expectations, but they are still a talented team. Unfortunately, their defense is the element that's been misfiring in key spots and under normal circumstances defense should be their greatest asset. I think the last two weeks have been very frustrating for the Panthers, but they could easily be 4-0 now themselves if not for late mistakes in games. It's not a question of talent on the team. I think that coaching change has really disrupted the Pittsburgh defense as they adjust to the new system as not only the HC is new (Todd Graham) but also the co-DCs, Keith Patterson and Paul Randolph, who all came over from Tulsa in the off-season.
I think the short week plus opening up the conference games at home is exactly what Pittsburgh needs right now. Getting back on the field quickly against what, in my mind, is a very overrated team gives Pittsburgh a chance for a really big win this week. I made this line out to be Pitt -2 when I capped the game. I like Pittsburgh to win this game outright in what will likely be a low scoring game. In particular, both of these teams have been excellent on defense in the first half. Pittsburgh has allowed an average of 4.3 points in the first half this year, while USF has allowed 5.7 1H points, good for 6th and 10th in the FBS, respectively. The total is not available at Pinnacle yet, but it should be around 52 and I like the Under a lot. I took the Pitt ML already at +128. As a bonus, Pitt peaked at +3 and got absolutely hammered this morning at Pinnacle, Cris, and Greek, dropping it from +3 down to +1.5/+2 before it started to inch back up to +2/+2.5. As long as the heavy action keeps coming in on USF (94% at the moment) and the line sits down where it is right now, I'm going to feel pretty good about Pittsburgh on Thursday night.Comment -
Adding:
Virginia Tech -6.5 (-110) x2 (for a total of x3)
This game is really shaping up to be a good one. VTech has stumbled a bit offensively in the early going as their new QB acclimates to the starting role, but a strong running game and stellar defense has them at 4-0. The quality of their competition so far has been below average with a game vs Appalachian State and three lower level FBS teams in Marshall, East Carolina, and Arkansas State. Even in playing 4 games they were expected to win, they performed very well.
Clemson has had a much harder schedule to start the season. Or have they...? So far this season, Troy is allowing over 500 yards of total offense per game. Auburn is allowing 478. We'll set Wofford aside as an FCS team, and that brings us to FSU. Anyone that watched that game saw FSU repeatedly give up key penalties in that game (11 penalties for 124 yards) on both sides of the ball. They bailed the Tigers out on a punt with a call for roughing the kicker (Clemson would convert that second chance into a TD), took multiple pass interference calls on big Clemson passing plays, and a holding call that negated a brilliant 60 yard kickoff return. With all this, Clemson still only managed to win by 5 points.
I don't want to take anything away from Boyd, who's having a solid season, but for the most part it's been coming as a product of defensive breakdowns by Clemson's opponents. Now they're facing one of the best defensive teams in the FBS in Virginia Tech (After adjusting for SOS, I rate them #16 in defense currently). Tajh Boyd is going to have to work a LOT harder this week that he's had to in previous games if he expects to put points on the board, and I really foresee this game being a frustrating one for Clemson.
Additionally, this game is the third tough matchup in a row for Clemson, beating Auburn and then FSU. Both of these wins were emotional wins in front of their home crowd, and now they're being asked to play their first road game of the season in an extremely tough environment: a night game in Blacksburg where the Hokies went 6-1 last season and have been winning at an 84% clip over the last 10 years. VT also ran the table last year in conference play, going a perfect 9-0 SU (8-1 ATS). IMO, this is not a good spot for Clemson at all and I like VT a lot here to really shut them down.
VT is a team that knows how to win the tough games, and enjoys one of the largest home field advantages in the NCAA. Clemson is another team that I look at and hear the hype, but I don't really believe they're a legit threat to a top tier team such as VT.Comment -
Excellent points on VT. I had this game circled and watching very carefully. I expect more money on clemson and get a more favorable line to double up. I also love them. In a tease. You can possibly use that VT -1 to anchor a lot of good wagers. BolComment -
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well done SK, you sold me on PITT, -2.5 and MLComment -
Nice to see you were on the pit ml....i just took the points....solid profit for you.
I also love the alabama call...I will be on the tide as well, but I am waiting for a possible 3.5.
Looks like we are on the opposite side in the ohio state/msu game, but I have +3.5, so lets hope for an osu win by 3 and we both cash.
Good luck this weekend.Comment -
I don't understand people backing the Gators this weekend. They've looked good so far but by my estimation, Florida's schedule so far has been one of the easiest that anyone has had to this point. Florida Atlantic, UAB and Kentucky are all layups, and Tennessee is still a relatively easy opponent. They haven't even been tested by a Top 50 team yet, but now they're getting thrown in against a Top 5 team. Not to say they're not a talented team, but I just don't see this game going well for Florida as I believe Saban will be better prepared than Mushchamp, and Florida's offense will have a lot of trouble making the big plays against the Alabama secondary. Alabama's physicality will grind the Gators down and tire them out.
Good Luck
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Texas 1H -5.5 (-110) x2Comment -
Live Bet (4:45 1Q, 14-0 Air Force):
Navy ML (+262) x0.5Comment -
UCLA +23 (-105) x1Comment
