Wal's 2011 College Football Thread

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  • wal66
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-14-08
    • 5305

    #106
    Week 6 Game 2


    Oklahoma vs Texas

    That’s right it’s time for the Red River Rivalry.

    This game almost slipped past me due to the line. I saw the Oklahoma -9.5 and thought, yeah, that’s about right. Then I looked deeper and thought, hey, not so fast there partner.

    I remembered so vividly the game between Oklahoma and FSU earlier this season and what a fantastically brutal affair that was. I also remembered how Texas struggled at home earlier this season against BYU and how unimpressed my memory of Texas was.

    If my simple brain was remembering these things I would assume that others might be as well. So now this line made perfect sense and not in the way you might think.

    Texas is 4-0 and the winning team in this contest hasn’t won by more than 10 points since 2006 although Texas did win by exactly 10 points in 2008. This is a rivalry game and rivalry games are often upsets or close games.

    The line isn’t a trap, I don’t believe in traps. I do believe that Vegas understands public perception and there are times that lines reflect that and I think this line falls into that category. I THINK the masses will ASSUME Oklahoma is THAT good and Texas is THAT bad. Maybe Oklahoma is but I don’t think Texas is and I will gladly take the side I don’t think Vegas thought I would.

    Play: Texas +9.5
    Comment
    • Hent2525
      SBR Rookie
      • 10-04-11
      • 8

      #107
      hey

      hey wal, if it's not to much trouble can you post all the lines like you do weekly? I use it for my capping and it's been really helpful. if you can thanks, if not well thank you anyways for everything you do.
      Comment
      • wal66
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 10-14-08
        • 5305

        #108
        Week 6 Adjusted Lines:

        Western Kentucky
        Middle Tennessee St -14.3

        California
        Oregon -16

        Boise St -26
        Fresno St

        Colorado
        Stanford -29

        Washington St
        UCLA -3

        Illinois -20.5
        Indiana

        Kansas
        Oklahoma St -24

        Arizona -11.5
        Oregon St

        Boston College
        Clemson -28

        Iowa St
        Baylor -5.5

        Arizona St -3.5
        Utah

        Texas A&M
        Texas Tech -2.5

        Oklahoma -3.5
        Texas

        UConn
        West Virginia -15.5

        Minnesota
        Purdue -12.5

        Kentucky
        South Carolina -17.5

        Maryland
        Georgia Tech -17.5

        Mississippi St -24
        UAB

        FSU -8.5
        Wake Forest

        Memphis
        Rice -15

        Army -12
        Miami Ohio

        Bowling Green
        Western Michigan -12

        Florida International -17
        Akron

        Temple -6
        Ball St

        Eastern Michigan
        Toledo -14

        Kent St
        Northern Illinois -7.5

        Ohio U -14
        Buffalo

        Missouri
        Kansas St -3

        Miami
        Virginia Tech -11

        Air Force
        Notre Dame -12

        Southern Miss
        Navy -2.5

        Pittsburgh
        Rutgers PK

        Iowa
        Penn St -4.5

        Central Michigan
        NC State -8.5

        UNLV
        Nevada -17.5

        LA Tech -1.5
        Idaho

        Michigan -24
        Northwestern

        East Carolina
        Houston -14.5

        Georgia
        Tennessee PK

        Marshall
        Central Florida -6

        Troy
        UL Lafayette PK

        Vanderbilt
        Alabama -31

        Arkansas St -7.5
        UL Monroe

        Auburn
        Arkansas -3.5

        Florida Atlantic
        North Texas -1.5

        Florida
        LSU -10.5

        Ohio St
        Nebraska -9

        Wyoming -4
        Utah St

        Syracuse -17
        Tulane

        San Jose St
        BYU -14.5

        TCU -5
        San Diego St
        Comment
        • wal66
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 10-14-08
          • 5305

          #109
          Week 6 Plays:

          Arizona St -3.5 (now at -4 good to -7)
          Texas +9.5 (now +10 good to +7)
          Wyoming +11
          Auburn/Arkansas OVER 63.5
          Florida/LSU UNDER 41

          Opinions:

          Kentucky +21
          FSU -11
          Mississippi St -17
          Minnesota/Purdue OVER 48
          Comment
          • ram1502
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 12-26-08
            • 822

            #110
            Originally posted by wal66
            Week 6 Plays:

            Arizona St -3.5 (now at -4 good to -7)
            Texas +9.5 (now +10 good to +7)
            Wyoming +11
            Auburn/Arkansas OVER 63.5
            Florida/LSU UNDER 41

            Opinions:

            Kentucky +21
            FSU -11
            Mississippi St -17
            Minnesota/Purdue OVER 48
            No plays on Tx tech? Rutgers? Idaho? Sir?
            Comment
            • Hent2525
              SBR Rookie
              • 10-04-11
              • 8

              #111
              thanks alot dude, tried to give you my points but it wouldn't let me... don't know what that's about. If I have a few more winning weeks i'll paypal you over something worth while.
              Comment
              • wal66
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 10-14-08
                • 5305

                #112
                Originally posted by Hent2525
                thanks alot dude, tried to give you my points but it wouldn't let me... don't know what that's about. If I have a few more winning weeks i'll paypal you over something worth while.

                Hents, keep your points and absolutely keep your money. I appreciate the offer but we are here to help one another or should be at least. I was just lazy this week and didn't post the adjusted lines. I will keep posting them Sunday nights or Monday's as long as they are of help to someone.

                I hope you are using them better than I am this season. I'm winning but not hitting at the rate I had hoped.
                Comment
                • wal66
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 10-14-08
                  • 5305

                  #113
                  1-4 this week and the losses weren't even remotely close.
                  Comment
                  • Hent2525
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 10-04-11
                    • 8

                    #114
                    sorry to hear that bud. I really do appreciate you posting the lines.
                    Comment
                    • wal66
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 10-14-08
                      • 5305

                      #115
                      Week 7 Adjusted Lines:

                      San Diego St
                      Air Force -3.5

                      USC -3.5
                      California

                      Hawaii -5.5
                      San Jose St

                      Iowa St
                      Missouri -10

                      BYU -6.5
                      Oregon St

                      Colorado
                      Washington -17.5

                      Kansas St -1.5
                      Texas Tech

                      Baylor
                      Texas A&M -6.5

                      Utah
                      Pittsburgh PICK

                      Purdue
                      Penn St -20.5

                      Indiana
                      Wisconsin -40

                      South Carolina -8.5
                      Mississippi St

                      Louisville
                      Cincinnati -12.5

                      Michigan -7.5
                      Michigan St

                      Buffalo
                      Temple -17

                      Navy
                      Rutgers -10.5

                      Miami
                      North Carolina -7

                      UNLV
                      Wyoming -8.5

                      Eastern Michigan
                      Central Michigan -6

                      FSU -7
                      Duke

                      Rice
                      Marshall -2.5

                      Ohio St
                      Illinois -8.5

                      Miami Ohio
                      Kent PICK

                      Oklahoma St -7.5
                      Texas

                      Georgia Tech -14.5
                      Virginia

                      Ball St
                      Ohio U -8

                      South Florida -7.5
                      UConn

                      Western Michigan -7.5
                      Northern Illinois

                      Central Florida
                      SMU -8.5

                      LSU -19
                      Tennessee

                      UTEP -10.5
                      Tulane

                      Western Kentucky
                      Florida Int -17

                      New Mexico
                      Nevada -31.5

                      North texas
                      UL Lafayette -12.5

                      Boise St -35
                      Colorado St

                      Alabama -33
                      ol' Miss

                      Virginia Tech -10
                      Wake Forest

                      Clemson -14.5
                      Maryland

                      Florida
                      Auburn PICK

                      East Carolina -12.5
                      Memphis

                      Georgia -9.5
                      Vanderbilt

                      Northwestern
                      Iowa -13

                      UL Monroe
                      Troy -12

                      Stanford -21
                      Washington St

                      UAB
                      Tulsa -33

                      Idaho
                      New Mexico St PICK

                      Oklahoma -34
                      Kansas

                      Utah St -1
                      Fresno St

                      Arizona St
                      Oregon -6
                      Comment
                      • wal66
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 10-14-08
                        • 5305

                        #116
                        I'm in early this week.

                        Plays:

                        Virginia Tech -7
                        Michigan +3
                        Tulsa -21.5
                        Clemson -9
                        Comment
                        • Pin Fish
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-28-08
                          • 1295

                          #117
                          no taj at clemson
                          Comment
                          • Coach Jake
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 09-24-11
                            • 457

                            #118
                            No Taj!!! I hate bettin on Tech, might as well be Penn state...Take a shot on one of the offenses, Stanford, Ok St, Oregon, or GT....look em up!
                            Comment
                            • ElCapitan
                              SBR MVP
                              • 08-19-08
                              • 2129

                              #119
                              Wal, assuming you're using these adjusted lines vs. the posted lines as a starting point for picking games, is there a reason you did not like Georgia Tech? Your line has them at -14.5 and the posted line is at -7.5.
                              Comment
                              • wal66
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 10-14-08
                                • 5305

                                #120
                                Originally posted by ElCapitan
                                Wal, assuming you're using these adjusted lines vs. the posted lines as a starting point for picking games, is there a reason you did not like Georgia Tech? Your line has them at -14.5 and the posted line is at -7.5.

                                While it's true I use my program to qualify what usually will become a play it is mere a filter of sorts. If I played program plays as is they have a history of about 50%.

                                The original formula for my program was pretty good the first 2 seasons and then my computer crashed and like so often is the case I didn't have things backed-up. I recreated it from memory and it has never been exactly right since. I am still missing something I had in the original form.

                                Sorry, I'm not answering your question. I have no real answer is the reason. The games I listed as plays so far were simply the ones that struck me first. I am still looking into several games further including Georgia Tech, Baylor and Kansas St to name a few that may still be added.

                                ElCap, an argument could be made that Georgia Tech is a better option than any of the ones already listed. I will be looking deeper into it.
                                Comment
                                • wal66
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 10-14-08
                                  • 5305

                                  #121
                                  Originally posted by Pin Fish
                                  no taj at clemson

                                  Has this been confirmed? I see that he is listed Day to Day on the site I use for injury reports? I mean it's too late cause my bet is in but if this is a definite then I won't be using this game for a write-up at least.
                                  Comment
                                  • Hent2525
                                    SBR Rookie
                                    • 10-04-11
                                    • 8

                                    #122
                                    thanks wal
                                    Comment
                                    • wal66
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 10-14-08
                                      • 5305

                                      #123
                                      Originally posted by wal66
                                      I'm in early this week.

                                      Plays:

                                      Virginia Tech -7 WINNER
                                      Michigan +3 LOSER
                                      Tulsa -21.5 LOSER
                                      Clemson -9 WINNER
                                      2-2 and really should have been 1-3. So discouraged with how things are going. I am missing indicators that in the past I recognized. I am laying off games I am confident in. Just making so many mistakes. Everyone likes to say it's a marathon not a sprint but all I have managed to do is circle the block.
                                      Comment
                                      • Hent2525
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 10-04-11
                                        • 8

                                        #124
                                        dude, keep it up. It'll come back to you.
                                        Comment
                                        • wal66
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 10-14-08
                                          • 5305

                                          #125
                                          Hent, I didn't post this week's adjusted lines at the other sites. I wasn't gonna post them at all really but here they are for you.


                                          Arkansas St -2
                                          Central Florida -28.5
                                          UCLA -11
                                          Rutgers -1
                                          West Virginia -16.5
                                          Iowa -16.5
                                          Virginia -3.5
                                          Illinois -14
                                          FSU -4
                                          Miami -2
                                          Wake Forest -8
                                          Arkansas -25
                                          Cincinnati -1
                                          Clemson -15
                                          Northern Illinois -9
                                          Virginia Tech -26.5
                                          Texas A&M -19
                                          Western Michigan -8
                                          TCU -37.5
                                          Ball St -5
                                          Tulsa -13
                                          Vanderbilt -12.5
                                          Utah St -2
                                          Temple -16
                                          Ohio U -18
                                          Oklahoma St -14
                                          Oregon -32
                                          Nebraska -32
                                          Utah -6
                                          Boise St -31
                                          Kansas St -21
                                          Oklahoma -21
                                          Washington St -8.5
                                          Navy -7.5
                                          Nevada -11
                                          Houston -19
                                          Penn St -22
                                          Toledo -19.5
                                          Alabama -30
                                          Notre Dame PK
                                          SMU -7.5
                                          Stanford -11.5
                                          LSU -21
                                          Wisconsin -16
                                          UTEP -10
                                          Hawaii -9
                                          UL Lafayette -18.5
                                          Mid Tenn St -9
                                          UL Monroe -3
                                          Comment
                                          • BigdaddyQH
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 07-13-09
                                            • 19530

                                            #126
                                            Wal, if you have UCLA at -11, you really are missing something. UCLA should not be -11 to any Pac 12 team. They are going to Arizona, a place where they do not win. They are going up against a team with an "interim" head coach who must win if he want the job on a permanent basis. They are also going against a team with one of the top 3 QB's in a QB rich Pac 12. This should be a PK game.
                                            Comment
                                            • wal66
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 10-14-08
                                              • 5305

                                              #127
                                              QH, there are always a few games that are off by a good bit either way. As mentioned many times, I start with a base of Sargins and then go from there with a lil home-brew thrown in.

                                              Sargin's is good but still biased towards certain teams. They still rate Florida relatively high and much higher than they should be.

                                              I automatically throw out games that are too far off in either direction personally but always include every game I run through the program.

                                              QH, what all that means is, I agree with you.
                                              Comment
                                              • wal66
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 10-14-08
                                                • 5305

                                                #128
                                                So far I am on................

                                                Wisconsin -7 (got it opening for me)
                                                SMU +133


                                                I will add more as they come.
                                                Comment
                                                • Hent2525
                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                  • 10-04-11
                                                  • 8

                                                  #129
                                                  Wall i appreciate it man. I use your numbers in combination with 2 other sets an narrow my games down like that. Don't let it get to you, we all have a few bad weeks. This past week I went 1-4 first losing week of the season (thank fully i'm up alot more so I can do with a losing week, I peg myself at a 60%-65% capper, I'm way above that right now so need to come down to earth). You're a vet and good just go with the waves dude, you'll be alright. BTW while I wish SMU was getting more then 3, the money line is amazing value. On that for 1.5 units. Goodluck this week buddy and again thank you.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TheBetBuysDanK
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-15-09
                                                    • 1998

                                                    #130
                                                    Keep your head up, wal! you're one the best cappers and downright nicest dudes on the board. the Ws will come. keep pluggin'!

                                                    I'm with you on Wisc. I too got it at -7 on sunday night. I'm not so sure I would play it past that number.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Hent2525
                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                      • 10-04-11
                                                      • 8

                                                      #131
                                                      Lines buddy?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Sunde91
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 11-26-09
                                                        • 8325

                                                        #132
                                                        UCLA -11
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Hent2525
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 10-04-11
                                                          • 8

                                                          #133
                                                          As a note for wal's tool... I would ignore any game that is off by 9 or more.
                                                          Comment
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