*** BOWL SYSTEMS THAT KICKED ASS 3 OF THE LAST 4 YEARs

[goldengreek]

THESE DID WELL FOR THREE YRS IN A ROW AND FELL OFF DRAMATICALLY LAST YEAR

DECIDED TO POST THEM AGAIN BECAUSE I WAS ASKED BY A FEW MEMBERS TO DO SO

** CAUTION / DISCLAIMER ** :
SYSTEMS CHANGE EACH AND EVERY YEAR
VEGAS IS VERY AWARE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND AJUSTS ACCORDINGLY
[size=10pt][color=red][b]USE THIS ONLY AS A TOOL TO OUR OWN HANDICAPPING - NOT A BIBLE
LAST YEARS RESULTS DO NOT GUARENTEE THE SAME RESULTS THIS YEAR !!!

[goldengreek]

Moneyline / Rankings etc.. System
2007: 33-14 ATS
2008: 29-12 ATS
2009: 28-23 ATS

BROKEN DOWN BY SYSTEM:

2 Units-Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record
THIS IS THE WEAKEST OF THE BUNCH
2007: 2-3 ATS
2008: 2-5 ATS
2009: 4-4-1 ATS

2010:
UTEP + 11.5
??....SYRACUSE PK ( OPENED AS A 3 POINT DOG )
NOTRE DAME + 3
NORTHWESTERN + 9.5
PENN ST + 7.5
FLORIDA ST + 3

3 Units and 5 Units
Bet the team with the worst season record for 3 Units if a dog.
If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units:

2007: 19-7 ATS
2008: 12- 3 ATS
2009: 8-5 ATS

2010:
3 UNITS FRESNO ST + 1.5
3 UNITS UTAH + 17
3 UNITS FLOR INTER + 1.5
3 UNITS GTECH + 3
3 UNITS NC ST + 3
3 UNITS IOWA + 3
3 UNITS ECAR + 7
3 UNITS ILLINOIS + 1.5
3 UNITS ARIZONA + 5
3 UNITS TENN + 3
3 UNITS WASH + 14
3 UNITS MICH + 4.5
3 UNITS WISKY + 2
3 UNITS UCONN + 17
3 UNITS ARK + 3.5
3 UNITS MIDDLE TENN + 1
3 UNITS TEX A & M + 1
3 UNITS KENTUCKY + 3
3 UNITS BC + 9.5


5 UNIT PLAYS: If that team is a favorite, play them on the money line for a risk of 5 Units

2007: 10-2
2008: 8-1 OR 8-2
2009: 6-3

2010:
???? 5 UNITS TROY ON THE MONEYLINE ( OPENED AS A PICK )
5 UNITS LOUIVILLE ON THE MONEYLINE
5 UNITS CLEMSON ON THE MONEYLINE
5 UNITS GEORGIA ON THE MONEYLINE
5 UNITS ALABAMA ON THE MONEYLINE
5 UNITS SD ST ON THE MONEYLINE

Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams
2007: 3-2 ATS
2008: 5-3 ATS
2009: 6-3 ATS

2010:
UTAH + 17
FLOR ST + 3
UCONN + 17
WISKY + 2
V TECH + 3
ARKANSAS + 3.5
TEX A & M + 1
OREGON + 2.5


Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams
2007: 3-0 ATS
2008: 1-1 ATS
2009: 2-3 ATS
2010:
ALABAMA -10

A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team:
2007: 6-0 ATS
2008: 2-0 ATS
2009: 1-3 ATS

2010:
BOSTON COLLEGE + 9.5
IOWA + 3
ARIZONA + 5
WASH + 14
MICHIGAN + 5
NC ST + 3
TULSA + 10.5


A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team
2007: 1-1 ATS
2008: 2-0 ATS
2009: 1-2 ATS
2010:
GEORGIA - 6.5

Teams that hit in more than one system without opposition hit a high percentage last year

2008: 6-2 ATS
2009: 6-7 ATS
2010:

[goldengreek]

RUNNING DOG SYSTEM
STOLEN / BORROWED FROM THE ORIGINATOR OF THE SYSTEM
I'm pretty much going to follow the same formula as I did last year. ( 2007 ) We had an outstanding bowl season with the running dogs. The better running teams OVERALL in general were 22-10 SU and 23-9 ATS last year. But keep in mind that they aren't going to hit this well every year. In the 2006 bowl season the better running teams were 20-12 SU but only 18-14 ATS. So we have to be careful as we go, and to just remember that none of these Running Dogs are set in granite. The underdogs who had the better run numbers were 10-4 ATS last year. And 7-3 (71%) the season before. So that's why you really need to think hard before you go against a running dog

2007: 10-4 ATS
2008: 9-5 ATS
2009: 7-4 ATS
2010:
Ohio +1.5
Navy +5
FIU +1.5
Ga Tech +3
Iowa +1
Illinois +1.5
Syracuse +1
UCONN +17
MTSU +1.5
Texas A&M +1.5

Notre Dame, Michigan St, & Michigan's run numbers are very close to Miami, Alabama & Miss. St.


.

[goldengreek]

BUCKING THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS

BOWL SYSTEM
BETTING AGAINST THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS
One of the easiest bowl systems around, is to go against the
team on which the current Heisman Trophy winner plays. Here are the results from the last 35 games in which the Heisman Winner played.
HEISMAN WINNER LINE RESULT
1974 SO CALIF 18 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 17 + 6½ WINNER
1975 UCLA 23 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 10 + 14 WINNER
1976 GEORGIA 3 - Pittsburgh (Tony Dorsett) 27 + 3½ Loser
1977 NOTRE DAME 38 - Texas (Earl Campbell) 10 + 6½ WINNER
1978 NEBRASKA 24 - Oklahoma (Billy Sims) 31 + 11 WINNER
1979 OHIO STATE 16 - So Calif (Charles White) 17 + 7½ WINNER
1980 PITTSBURGH 37 - So Caro (George Rogers) 9 - 10 WINNER
1981 PENN STATE 26 - So Calif (Marcus Allen) 10 + 2 WINNER
1982 PENN STATE 27 - Georgia (Herschel Walker) 23 - 4 Tie
1983 MIAMI (FLA) 31 - Nebraska (Mike Rozier) 30 + 11½ WINNER
1984 HOUSTON 28 - Boston College (Doug Flutie) 45 + 6 Loser
1985 TEXAS A&M 36 - Auburn (Bo Jackson) 16 + 2½ WINNER
1986 PENN STATE 14 - Miami (Vinnie Testaverde) 10 + 7 WINNER
1987 TEXAS A&M 35 - Notre Dame (Tim Brown ) 10 + 4½ WINNER
1988 WYOMING 14 - Okla St (Barry Sanders) 62 + 2½ Loser
1989 Houston (Andre Ware) did not go to a bowl.
1990 TEXAS A&M 65 - Byu (Ty Detmer) 14 + 3 WINNER
1991 WASHINGTON 34 - Mich (Desmond Howard) 14 - 6½ WINNER
1992 ALABAMA 34 - Miami (Gino Torretta) 13 + 8 WINNER
1993 NEBRASKA 16 - Florida St (Charlie Ward) 18 + 15½ WINNER
1994 NOTRE DAME 24 - Colorado (R. Salaam) 41 + 7½ Loser
1995 TENNESSEE 20 - Ohio State (Eddie George) 14 - 4 WINNER
1996 FLORIDA ST 20 - Florida (Danny Wuerffel) 52 + 3½ Loser
1997 WASH ST 16 - Michigan (Charles Woodson) 21 + 6 WINNER
1998 MISSISSIPPI ST 11 - Texas (Ricky Williams) 38 + 6½ Loser
1999 STANFORD 9 - Wisconsin (Ron Dayne) 17 + 13½ WINNER
2000 OKLAHOMA 13 - Florida State (Chris Weinke) 2 + 10 WINNER
2001 MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 - Nebraska (Eric Crouch) 14 - 8½ WINNER
2002 IOWA 17 - Southern California (Carson Palmer) 38 + 5 Loser
2003 LOUISIANA ST 21 - Oklahoma (Jason White) 14 + 5½ WINNER
2004 OKLAHOMA 19 - So California (Matt Leinart) 55 + 2 Loser
2005 TEXAS 41 - So California (Reggie Bush) 38 + 7 WINNER
2006 FLORIDA 41 - Ohio State (Troy Smith) 14 + 4 WINNER
2007 MICHIGAN 41 - Florida (Tim Tebow) 35 + 10½ WINNER
2008 FLORIDA 24 - Oklahoma (Sam Bradford) 14 +5 WINNER
2009 ALABAMA 37 ( Mark Ingram)- TEXAS 21 - 4 LOSER

RESULT: 25-9-1: 73.5% VS SPREAD

TAKE OREGON + 2.5

[goldengreek]

Play underdogs with higher Sagarin strength-of-schedule ratings than their opponents
2009-10 record: 5-2: Wyoming +10 (W), Marshall +3 (W), North Carolina +1 (L), Air Force +4.5 (W) Stanford +10 (W), Florida State +3 (W), Michigan State +9.5 (L)
Historical record: 70-36-2 (66%) since 1997; Z-factor 3.3
Current 2010-11 qualifiers:
Fresno State +1
Ohio +2.5
Utah +17
Navy +4.5
Georgia Tech +3
NC State +3
Illinois +1
Arizona +5
Kansas State +1
Washington +14
Notre Dame +3
Wisconsin +2.5
Arkansas +3.5
Texas A&M +1
Boston College +9.5

[goldengreek]

Play underdogs of 7.5 or more points in December Bowls
2009-010 record: 3-1: Wyoming +10 (W), SMU +11 (W), BC +7.5 (L), Stanford +10 (W)

Historical record: 57-28-3 (67%) since 1983; Z-factor 3.1
Current 2010-11 qualifiers:

UTEP +11.5
Utah +17
Tulsa +10
East Carolina +7.5*** WATCH THIS LINE
Army +8
Washington +14

[goldengreek]

Sys #1 - Play on Dogs of 4-11 pts from 12/25 to 12/31. 49-24 ATS L9 yrs
East Carolina +7.5
Arizona +5.5
Army +7
USF +4
UcF +7


Sys #2 - Play Against FAVS that are 3-0 su,ats L3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off Loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm. 17-1 ATS

None

Sys #3 - Play Against Pre-New Years Day FAVS who won 8 or less gms, avg 121.5< rush/gm, vs opp who rushes for 140>ypg. 17-2 ATS

Unknown

Sys #4 - Play Against teams (not dog of 6 >pts), seeking revenge for SU loss of 24+ pts in last match-up and not off Win 10<pts. 0-25 ATS

None

Sys #5 - Play on FAVS of 4 or less pts w/less than 39 days rest off SU win scoring 46+pts. 14-0 SU,ATS
San Diego State -3
TCU -3
AUBURN -3

Sys #6 - Play Against FAVS of more than 6pts that won its last bowl gm, and not off 4 favored Wins vs opp not off conf RF SU win,ats Loss. 1-22 ATS
PLAY AGAINST:
Oklahoma -17
BYU
BOISE
MARYLAND
NEB
T.TECH
FLOR
ALA


Sys #7 - From 12/22 on, Play Against FAVS of 1.5 to 8.5pts, w/less than 43 days of rest off 3 wins and not an ATS loss of 8+pts in last gm vs opp not off shut-out W. 1-20 ATS

PLAY AGAINST:

AF
WV
TCU
STAN
OHIO ST
Mia OH
NEV
AUB

Sys #8 - Play Against FAVS w/less than 8 wins, has at least 20+ days of rest, and are off 3 wins. 0-15 ATS
Couldn't find any


Sys # 9 - Play On Big 10 teams (not fav of 10+pts or dog of 14+ pts), w/less than 43 days of rest vs Big 12 opp not off conf RF su,ats Win of more than 6pts. 17-1 ATS
Illinois +3
Northwestern + 9.5
IOWA +3


Sys #10- Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf. 13-37
UNDERS:
UTEP-BYU
No. Illinois-Fresno State
Ohio-Troy
Utah-Boise State
Navy-San Diego State
Tulsa-Hawaii
Florida Int.-Toledo
Army-SMU
Middle Tennessee-Miami (OH)

[goldengreek]

Bowls from 12/15 to 12/24:
1) Favs of 3.5< pts are 18-3 SU, 17-4 ATS ( 2-1 IN 2009)

2010:
LOUISVILLE - 3
TROY - 3
N.ILL - 1.5

2) Totals of 63.5> pts are 12-3 OVER (avg score 82 ppg) ( 0-1 IN 2009)
2010:
OVER TULSA / HAWAII



Bowls from 12/25 to 12/31:
1) DD dogs are 17-3 ATS L20 ( 1-0 IN 2009 )
2010:
WASH + 14

Bowls from 1/1 to 1/10:
1) Favs are 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS L11 in LOWER TIER Bowl games

2) MAC teams are 1-8-2 ATS L11 ( 0-3-2 IN 2009 )
2010:
FRESNO + 1.5
TROY - 3
FLORIDA INTER + 1.5
MIDDLE TENN ST + 1

[goldengreek]

Dogs in bowl games that won the previous year are 23-12 ats, including 15-3 ats vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last year
** THOSE RECORDS ABOVE ARE PRIOR TO LAST YEARS RESULTS
2008: 5-4 ATS
2009: 5-2 ATS

2010:
Mid Tenn St. *
Utah
Wisconsin
Navy *
Virginia Tech
Florida St. *
Penn St.
South Florida
UCONN
Arkansas
Iowa *
* denotes a team playing a team that won 8 or less games last year

[goldengreek]

Play on a non-New Year's Day bowl team that are 15' point + dogs.

Since 1996.....5-0 100%
PLAY ON: UTAH

[goldengreek]

PLAY AGAINST: Any bowl favorite that has covered in three consecutive games

58-36-1, 61.7% since 1980


PLAY AGAINST: BYU, Hawaii, West Virginia, Nevada,Auburn,
PLAY ON: UTEP, Tulsa, NC State, BC, Oregon



Tighten It: Any Double-Digit Favorite 9-3, 75.0% since 1988

PLAY AGAINST: BYU, Hawaii,
PLAY ON: UTEP, Tulsa

[goldengreek]

Stats Matter - A Guide to Handicapping the Bowl Games
by Marc Lawrence on 12/14/2010 7:05 AM
By Marc Lawrence

Smart handicappers alike agree on one thing - preparation is the key to success. The better prepared you are the better chance you stand at succeeding.

With the 2010 College Bowl season now upon us it's time to get ready for the thirty-five games that await. While a myriad of different techniques and approaches exist one simple element is often overlooked and that is how teams are or have been performing on the playing field ‘In The Stats' (ITS) as they enter into its bowl game.

As handicappers we know better than most that the scoreboard does not tell the entire story. Like a doctor examining an MRI or an X-Ray it's vitally important to look inside the patient before rendering a diagnosis.

Listed below are noteworthy results of how the 70 bowl teams have fared ITS overall or most recently this season...

Air Force - 11-1 ITS this season

Alabama - 11-1 ITS this season

Arizona - 10-2 ITS this season

Arkansas - 9-2-1 ITS this season

Army - 0-4 ITS L4 games season

Auburn - 12-1 ITS this season

Baylor - 1-3 ITS L4 games season

Boise State - 11-1 ITS this season

Boston College - 5-1 ITS L6 games season

BYU - 4-1 ITS L5 games season

Central Florida - 2-3 ITS L5 games season

Clemson - 4-7 ITS this season

Connecticut - 1-6 ITS L7 games season

East Carolina -1-4 ITS L5 games season

Florida - held 4 foes season low yards

Florida International - 8-4 ITS this season

Florida State - 1-4 ITS L5 games season

Fresno State - 11-1 ITS this season

Georgia - 1-4 ITS L5 games season

Georgia Tech - 2-3 ITS L5 games season

Hawaii - 11-2 ITS this season

Illinois - held 5 foes 1-2 season low yards

Iowa - 0-3 ITS L3 games season

Kansas State - 0-6 ITS L6 games season

Kentucky - 4-1 ITS L5 games season

LSU -held 3 foes season low yards

Louisville - 8-4 ITS this season

Maryland - 5-7 ITS this season

Miami Fla - 7-0 ITS L7 games season

Miami Oh - 5-0 ITS L5 games season

Michigan - allowed 4 teams season high yards

Michigan State - 10-2 ITS this season

Mid Tennessee State - 2-6 ITS L8 games season

Mississippi State - 3-3 ITS L6 games season

Missouri - 2-3 ITS L5 games season

Navy - 4-5 ITS L9 games season

Nebraska - held 6 foes 1-2 season low yards

Nevada - 10-3 ITS this season

North Carolina - 8-4 ITS this season

NC State - 3-3 ITS L6 games season

Northern Illinois - 10-3 ITS this season

Northwestern - 1-3 ITS L4 games season

Notre Dame - 4-2 ITS L6 games season

Ohio State - held 10 foes 1-2 season low yards

Ohio U - 4-8 ITS this season

Oklahoma - held 5 foes 1-2 season low yards

Oklahoma State - 9-3 ITS this season

Oregon - 11-1 ITS this season

Penn State - 4-1 ITS L5 games season

Pittsburgh - 9-0 ITS L9 games season

San Diego State - 5-1 ITS L6 games season

SMU - 8-1 ITS L9 games season

South Carolina - 8-4 ITS this season

South Florida - 2-6 ITS L8 games season

Southern Miss - 9-3 ITS this season

Stanford - 10-2 ITS this season

Syracuse - 1-6 ITS L7 games season

TCU - 12-0 ITS this season

Tennessee - 4-0 ITS L4 games season

Texas A&M - 9-3 ITS this season

Texas El Paso - 1-5 ITS L6 games season

Texas Tech - allowed 3 teams season high yards

Toledo - 4-2 ITS L6 games season

Troy - 8-4 ITS this season

Tulsa - 9-3 ITS this season

Utah - 9-3 ITS this season

Virginia Tech - held 5 foes season low yards

Washington - 3-0 ITS L3 games season

West Virginia - held 6 foes 1-2 low yards

Wisconsin - 10-2 ITS this season

Given the fact that teams who outgain their opponent win the game better than 80% of the time, and straight-up winners in bowl games being 539-93-10 ATS since 1980, it's crucial to your success when evaluating a team's chance of winning the yardage wars.

Just another slant on handicapping the Bowl contests. Add it to your arsenal and enjoy the games!

[goldengreek]

NEW MEXICO BOWL:
UTEP Price: 5-2 SU ATS vs MWC including 3-0 SUATS as dog
BYU 0-5 SU in bowl games when entering off a loss


HUMANITARIAN BOWL
NO ILLINOIS Bowlers off DD loss as DD favs are 4-11 ATS
FRESNO ST Underdog is 10-0 ATS L10 Bulldogs’ bowl games


NEW ORLEANS BOWL
OHIO U 0-4 SU bowl games… Solich: 6-13 SU vs .580 > opp
TROY Sun Belt bowlers off win 6 > points are 6-2-1 ATS


Tuesday, December 21
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
LOUISVILLE 2-7 ATS as bowlers, including 1-5 ATS off a win
SO MISS Fedora: 5-1 ATS vs .666 < opp off SU and ATS win



Wednesday, December 22
LAS VEGAS BOWL
UTAH 11-2 ATS dog with rest… Whittingham: 7-1 dog > 7
BOISE ST WAC bowlers are 1-6 ATS as DD favorites

[goldengreek]

Best ACC Bowl Trend – 12-1 ATS dogs off SU loss: Fla St, Ga Tech, NC State

Worst ACC Bowl Trend – 5-10 ATS aft allow < 10 pts last game: Boston College


Best Big Ten Bowl Trend – 12-3 ATS dogs 6 > pts vs opp off SU loss:
Michigan St, Penn St

Worst Big Ten Bowl Trend – 4-12 ATS off DD ATS loss:
Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern



Best Big 12 Bowl Trend – 6-1 ATS off loss of more than 28 points:
Baylor

Worst Big 12 Bowl Trend – 1-7 ATS favs 6 > pts vs opp off ATS loss:
Texas Tech



Best CUSA Bowl Trend – 14-4 ATS off loss 6 > pts: East Carolina

Worst CUSA Bowl Trend – 1-8 ATS dogs 7 < pts off SUATS win: C Florida


Best MAC Bowl Trend – 4-1 ATS favs vs opp off SU fav loss: Toledo

Worst MAC Bowl Trend – 0-7 ATS dogs < 7 pts: Ohio U


Best MWC Bowl Trend – 6-0 ATS dogs 6 > pts: Utah

Worst MWC Bowl Trend – 1-4 ATS favs vs > .500 opp: San Diego St, TCU


Best PAC-10 Bowl Trend – 6-0 ATS as dogs 9 > pts: Washington

Worst PAC-10 Bowl Trend – 2-7 ATS off SU loss vs opp off SUATS loss: Arizona


Best SEC Bowl Trend – 9-2 ATS dogs vs opp off SU win: Ark, Kentucky, Tenn

Worst SEC Bowl Trend – 2-8 ATS favs after scoring 40 > pts: Auburn, Ga


Best Sun Belt Bowl Trend – 5-1 ATS dogs off SUATS win: Mid Tenn St

Worst Sun Belt Bowl Trend – 0-2 ATS off SU loss vs opp off SUATS win: FIU


Best INDEPENDENT Bowl Trend – 8-2 ATS vs opp off ATS loss: Army, N Dame

Worst INDEPENDENT Bowl Trend – 0-7 ATS vs opp off SU win > 7 pts: Navy

[goldengreek]

2010 College Football Bowl Game Trends:

Saturday, Dec. 18

New Mexico Bowl -UTEP (6-6) vs. BYU (6-6), 2 p.m. (ESPN)

BYU is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games on a neutral site while UTEP is 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a cover in their last game.

Humanitarian Bowl - Northern Illinois (10-3) vs. Fresno State (8-4), 5:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Northern Illinois is 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 games on a neutral site while Fresno State has covered in their last four bowl games as an underog.

New Orleans Bowl - Ohio (8-4) vs. Troy (7-5), 9 p.m. (ESPN)

Ohio is 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as an underdog while Troy is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against the Mid-American Conference.

Tuesday, Dec. 21

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl - Louisville (6-6) vs. Southern Mississippi (8-4), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Louisville is 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 meetings against Southern Miss while the Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Wednesday, Dec. 22

MAACO Bowl - Utah (10-2) vs. Boise State (11-1), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Utah is 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 bowl games while Boise State is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in the month of December.

Thursday, Dec. 23

Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego State (8-4) vs. Navy (8-3), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Navy is 14-2 against the spread in their last 16 games against the Mountain West Conference while San Diego State is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a cover.

Friday, Dec. 24

Hawaii Bowl - Hawaii (10-3) vs. Tulsa (9-3), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Hawaii has covered the spread in their last 7 home games while Tulsa is 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games on fieldturf.

Sunday, Dec. 26

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl - Toledo (8-4) vs. Florida International (6-6), 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Toledo is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as a favorite while Florida International is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a failed cover.

Monday, Dec. 27

Independence Bowl - Georgia Tech (6-6) vs. Air Force (8-4), 5 p.m. (ESPN2)

Air Force is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 non-conference games while Georiga Tech is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Tuesday, Dec. 28

Champs Sports Bowl - North Carolina State (8-4) vs. West Virginia (9-3), 6:30 p.m. (ESPN)

N.C. State is 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 games after a loss while West Virginia is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as a favorite.

Insight Bowl - Missouri (10-2) vs. Iowa (7-5), 10 p.m. (ESPN)

Missouri is 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games in December while Iowa is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.

Wednesday, Dec. 29

Military Bowl - East Carolina (6-6) vs. Maryland (8-4), 2:30 p.m. (ESPN)

East Carolina is 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 non-conference games while Maryland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Texas Bowl - Baylor (7-5) vs. Illinois (6-6), 6 p.m. (ESPN)

Illinois is 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games as an underdog while Baylor is 1-4 ATS int heir last 5 games overall.

Alamo Bowl - Arizona (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (10-2), 9:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Arizona is 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games following a loss while Oklahoma State is 24-6-2 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 3.5-to-10 points.

Thursday, Dec. 30

Armed Forces Bowl - SMU (7-6) vs. Army (6-5), Noon (ESPN)

SMU is just 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games against Independent teams while Army is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Conference USA opponents.

Pinstripe Bowl - Syracuse (7-5) vs. Kansas State (7-5), 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Syracuse is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a loss while Kansas State has failed to cover in their last 4 bowl games.

Music City Bowl - North Carolina (7-5) vs. Tennessee (6-6), 6:40 p.m. (ESPN)

Tennessee has failed to cover in their last 4 games against the ACC while North Carolina has covered in their last four games against SEC opponents.

Holiday Bowl - Nebraska (10-3) vs. Washington (6-6), 10 p.m. (ESPN)

Nebraska is 7-1-1 against the spread in their last 9 non-conference games while Washington is 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a cover.

Friday, Dec. 31

Meineke Bowl - Clemson (6-6) vs. South Florida (7-5), Noon (ESPN)

South Florida is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 against the ACC while the Tigers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Sun Bowl - Notre Dame (7-5) vs. Miami (7-5), 2 p.m. (CBS)

Notre Dame is 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as an underdog while Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight up loss.

Liberty Bowl - Georgia (6-6) vs. UCF (10-3), 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Georgia is just 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record while Central Florida is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.

Chick-fil-A Bowl - South Carolina (9-4) vs. Florida State (9-4), 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)

South Carolina is 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games at a neutral site while Florida State is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.

Saturday, Jan. 1

TicketCity Bowl - Northwestern (7-5) vs. Texas Tech (7-5), Noon (ESPNU)

Arizona is 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games and Texas Tech is currently 4-1 ATS in their last five games played on fieldturf.

Capital One Bowl - Michigan State (11-1) vs. Alabama (9-3), 1 p.m. (ESPN)

Alabama is 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games following a loss while Michigan State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a victory.

Outback Bowl - Florida (7-5) vs. Penn State (7-5), 1 p.m. (ABC)

Florida is 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games at a neutral site while Penn State is just 2-8 ATS in their last 8 games out of conference.

Gator Bowl - Michigan (7-5) vs. Mississippi State (8-4), 1:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

Michigan has covered the spread in their last 6 non-conference games while Mississippi State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a cover.

Rose Bowl - TCU (12-0) vs. Wisconsin (11-1), 5 p.m. (ESPN)

Wisconsin is just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games against the Mountain West Conference while TCU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Fiesta Bowl - Connecticut (8-4) vs. Oklahoma (11-2), 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Oklahoma is 0-4 against the spread in their last four bowl games while Connecticut is 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underog.

Monday, Jan. 3

Orange Bowl - Stanford (11-1) vs. Virginia Tech (11-2), 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Stanford is 4-0-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a win while Virginia Tech is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Tuesday, Jan. 4

Sugar Bowl - Ohio State (11-1) vs. Arkansas (10-2), 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Arkansas is just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 bow games while Ohio State is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.

Thursday, Jan. 6

GoDaddy.com Bowl - Miami (Ohio) (9-4) vs. Middle Tennessee (6-6), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Miami is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games while Middle Tennessee is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Friday, Jan. 7

Cotton Bowl - Texas A&M (9-3) vs. LSU (10-2), 8 p.m. (FOX)

Texas A&M is 0-7 against the spread in their last 7 neutral site games while LSU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

Saturday, Jan. 8

BBVA Compass Bowl - Pittsburgh (7-5) vs. Kentucky (6-6), Noon (ESPN)

Pittsburgh is 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 bowl games while Kentucky is 12-3-1 in their last 16 non-conference games.

Sunday, Jan. 9

Fight Hunger Bowl - Boston College (7-5) vs. Nevada (12-1), 9 p.m. (ESPN)

Boston College is 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 neutral site games while Nevada is 1-4 AS in their last 5 bowl games.

Monday, Jan. 10

BCS National Championship - Auburn (13-0) vs. Oregon (12-0), 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Auburn has covered in 6 of their last 7 games while Oregon is just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

[goldengreek]

2010-11 BOWL TRENDS:

UTEP is 17-11 in the last 28 games as DD dogs – BYU is 5-10 in the last 15 as DD favorites
Northern Illinois is 7-1-1 in the last nine as favorites – Fresno State is 40-29 as dogs since ‘97
Ohio is 9-16-3 as dogs of less than 7 since ’98 – Troy is 2-7 as favorites this season
Louisville is 5-0 vs. Southern Miss since ’99 – Southern Miss is 20-30-1 as dogs since ‘97
Utah is 26-16 as DD underdogs since ’82 – Boise State is 18-11 as favorites of -10 to -20
Navy is 11-3 in the last 14 games as dogs – San Diego State is 12-23-2 as non-home favorites
Tulsa is 16-27-2 as DD dogs since ’97 – Hawaii is 18-11 as DD favorites since ‘05
Florida International is 3-7 in the last ten as dogs – Toledo is 10-5 in the last 15 as favorites
Georgia Tech is 11-5 as underdogs since ’07 – Air Force is 11-6 in bowls since ‘82
NC State is 21-8-1 in the last 30 as dogs – West Virginia is 4-15 in bowls since ’82
Missouri is 2-6 in the last eight neutral site games – Iowa is 8-3 in bowls since ‘95
East Carolina is 12-6 as dogs of 7 or more since ’06 – Maryland is 8-20 as favorites since ‘04
Illinois is 2-8 in the last ten neutral site games – Baylor is 17-6 in the last 23 as favorites
Arizona is 10-5 in the last 15 as underdogs – Oklahoma State is 45-21-1 as favorites since ‘99
Army is 4-12 in neutral site games since ’97 – SMU is 4-15 in the last 19 as favorites
Kansas State is 1-6 in bowls since ’98 – Syracuse is 9-4 in bowls since ‘88
North Carolina is 16-27 as favorites since ’01 – Tennessee is 2-6 in the last eight as dogs
Washington is 4-1 in the last five as DD dogs – Nebraska is 2-11 in the last 13 as DD favs
South Florida is 12-8 in the last 20 as underdogs – Clemson is 1-4 in the last five bowl games
Notre Dame is 1-7 in bowl games since ’97 – Miami, FL is 8-4 in bowl games since ‘96
Central Florida is 7-2 in the last nine as dogs – Georgia is 12-4 in bowl games since ‘91
Florida State is 18-9-2 in bowl games since ’81 – South Carolina is 4-7 in bowls since ‘80
Northwestern is 14-9 in the last 23 as 7+ dogs – Texas Tech is 29-21-1 as favs of 7+ since ‘02
Penn State is 16-8 in bowl since ’80 – Florida is 24-10-1 in the last 35 as favorites of 7 or more
Michigan State is 30-20-1 as DD dogs since ’80 – Alabama is 13-5 in the last 18 as DD favs
Michigan is 4-11 in the last 15 as underdogs – Mississippi State is 5-9 in the last 14 as favs
TCU is 6-9 as favs of less than 3 since ’80 – Wisconsin is 7-4 a bowl underdogs since ‘94
Connecticut is 16-10 as dogs of 14+ since ’00 – Oklahoma is 3-9 in bowls since ’94
Virginia Tech is 18-7 in the last 25 as underdogs – Stanford is 0-3 as bowl favorites since ‘91
Arkansas is 11-3-1 in the last 15 as underdogs – Ohio State is 6-2 in the last eight bowls
MTSU is 5-9 in the last 14 as underdogs – Miami, OH is 2-11-1 as favorites since ‘06
Texas A&M is 5-0 S/U vs. LSU since ’91 – LSU is 10-5 in bowls since ‘87
Kentucky is 5-2 as bowl underdogs since ’83 – Pittsburgh is 4-8 in bowls since ‘83
Boston College is 0-4 in bowls since ’06 – Nevada is 27-14 as favorites of 7 or more since ‘99
Oregon is 24-12 as underdogs since ’00 – Auburn is 13-4 as favorites of less than 6 since ‘02

[goldengreek]

College Bowl Info....
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bowl Specific:
New Orleans Bowl- 4-0 OVER L4
Las Vegas- 1-3 UNDER L4
Poinsettia- Fav is 2-910 ATS L12
Hawaii Bowl- 8-2 OVER L10
Meineke Car Care- Fav is 6-1 SU L7
Emerald- Fav is 2-5 ATS L7
Music City - Dog is 9-3 SU,ATS L12 / 2-7 UNDER L8
Independance - 4-2 OVER L6 / SEC is 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS L13
Champs - Fav is 7-2 SU L9
Humanitarian - Fav is 7-2 SU L9
Armed Forces - Fav is 5-2 SU,ATS L6 / 2-5 UNDER L7
Sun - Dog is 13-2 ATS L15
Texas -Fav is 3-1 ATS L4 / 0-4 UNDER L4
Insight -11-3 OVER L14 / Dog is 9-4 ATS L13
Chick-fil-A -Fav is 4-12 ATS L16
Outback -Dog is 8-3 ATS L11
Capital One -Big 10 is 5-1 SU L6
Gator -Fav is 11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS L14
Rose Bowl -Fav is 11-5 ATS L16
Sugar -Fav is 10-3 ATS L13
International -Fav is 4-0 SU L4 / 3-1 OVER L4
Papajohns - 0-4 UNDER L4
Cotton - 3-12 UNDER
Liberty -4-14 UNDER L18
Alamo -Dog is 6-3 ATS L9 / Big 10 is 10-5 ATS L15
Fiesta - Better SU record is 10-2 ATS
Orange - Home team is 13-5 ATS
GMAC -CUSA is 2-6 SU,ATS L8 / Fav is 7-0 ATS L7
Little Ceasers- 3-8 UNDER L11
BCS Championship- Fav is 3-1 ATS L4, 3-1 OVER L4

[goldengreek]

Conference Specific:
ACC-
1) The ACC is 17-1 SU vs opp who allows 28.5>pts/gm on season
2) The ACC is 26-11 SU as fav/dog 6<pts off SU loss
3) The ACC is 1-6 SU,ATS as favs vs opp off SU fav loss
4) The ACC is 12-1 ATS dogs off L
Big East-
1) The Big East is 28-8 SU vs opp who allows 23>pts/gm
2) The Big East is 3-15 SU, 4-14 ATS as dogs of 4.5 or more
3) The Big East is 3-10 ATS vs opp off L
Big 10-
1) The Big 10 is 17-4 SU, 13-8 ATS vs opp who allow 28>pts/gm
2) The Big 10 is 1-6 ATS favs 2>pts vs opp off BB su,ats W
Big 12-
1) The Big 12 is 35-9 SU, 28-16 ATS vs opp who allow 25>pts/gm
2) The Big 12 is 12-4 ATS as dogs 3>pts vs opp off BB Wins
3) The Big 12 is 5-18 ATS as favs off ATS loss
4) The Big 12 is 6-18 ATS as favs of 7 or more
Pac 10-
1) The Pac 10 is 14-1 ATS as DOGS off su,ats Loss
2) The Pac 10 is 17-4 L17 gms as dogs
3) The Pac 10 is 4-13 ATS as favs 6>pts
4) The Pac 10 is on a run of 51-22 ATS L73 bowl games
5) Pac 10 dogs vs opp off DD win that scored 30>pts in that win are 16-1 ATS
6) The Pac 10 is 17-4 ATS vs Big 10
7) The Pac 10 is 0-9 ATS vs WAC
SEC
1) The SEC is 31-5 SU vs opp who allow 27>pts/gm
2) The SEC is 16-4 ATS as dogs 10<pts vs opp off Win
3) The SEC is 17-8 SU, 19-6 ATS, 8-28 UNDER L18 bowls as DOGS
4) SEC favs w/ win % of .750< are 10-20 ATS
5) The SEC is 15-4 ATS as dogs of 4.5 or more
6) The SEC is 1-11 ATS as Favs off BB L
MAC
1) The MAC is 13-8 ATS off Win
2) The MAC is 11-8 ATS as dogs 7>pts
3) The MAC is 23-3 SU, 19-7 ATS as Favs
4) The MAC is 0-15 SU, 2-13 ATS as Dogs
CUSA
1) The CUSA is 8-4 ATS vs opp off su,ats Loss
2) The CUSA is 3-14 ATS off DD W vs opp off Win
3) The CUSA is 24-6 SU, 19-11 ATS as FAVS in L30 bowl gms
4) The CUSA is 3-16 SU, 4-15 ATS as dogs of 7 or less
5) The CUSA is 0-11 SU, 2-8-1 ATS vs BCS conf teams
6) The CUSA is 5-18 UNDER vs MAC and MWC conf
MWC-
1) The MWC is 24-13 ATS L37 bowls
Independants
1) 11-1 SU,10-2 ATS L12 bowls as FAVS, 3-10 SU,4-9 ATS L12 as DOGS
WAC
1) The WAC is 15-3 ATS as dogs 4>pts off BB Wins
2) The Wac is 0-10 ATS as neutral site FAVS
3) The Wac is 2-11 ATS as favs if allowed 35>pts last gm
4) The Wac is 21-13 OVER , 13-21 ATS L34 Bowl gms

[goldengreek]

Team Specific:

Boston College- 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS L12, has not allowed more than 25>pts in L10 bowl gms.
Utah- 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS L7 / 4-7 UNDER L11
Wake Forest- 5-1 SU,ATS L6
Fresno St- Dog is 10-2 SU, 11-1 ATS in Frenso bowls, Fresno is 0-5 SU,ATS as favs
Georgia- 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS, Have scored between 24-44pts in 13 of 14 bowl gms.
ND- 1-9 SU, 2-8 ATS L10
Louisville- 3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS L9
WV- 5-9 SU, 4-10 ATS L14 / 9-1 OVER L10
N.Mexico- 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS L6
Purdue- 2-6 SU, 1-6-1 ATS L8
K.State- 1-6 ATS L7
Oregon- Dog is 8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS L11
UCLA- 4-8 SU L12
Alabama- 3-6 ATS L9
Michigan- 9-1 OVER L10
Texas- 8-3 OVER L11
Florida- 8-3 OVER L11
California- 8-0 OVER L8
G.Tech- 6-1 OVER L7
Arizona 0-6 UNDER L6
Ariz St.- 2-7 UNDER L9
Oklahoma- 4-9 UNDER L13, 1-6 ATS L7
Auburn 1-7 UNDER L8, 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS L6
Penn St- 1-9 UNDER L10, 10-3 SU L13
Florida St- 5-0 ATS, 5-1 OVER, Avg 34ppg L5 bowls
LSU- 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS
Navy- 7-2 ATS, 5-1 OVER, Avg 33ppg L6 bowls
Miss- 8-1 SU, 7-1-1 ATS, Dogs are 5-1 ATS in Miss bowls
Oreg St- 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS
Ark- 3-7 SU, ATS , 0-6 UNDER L6
BYU- Fav is 7-1 ATS in BYU bowls, 3-9 UNDER L12
Cincy- 1-7 ATS, 2-6 UNDER L8
N.Western- 0-7 SU L7
Texas A&M- 1-8 SU L9
Hou- Fav is 6-1 SU in Hou Bowls
E.Car- Dogs are 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS in ECU Bowls
Clemson- 2-10 UNDER L12
Stanford- 1-7 UNDER L8

[goldengreek]

bowl systems end at post # 11



the rest are just bowl trends

[Heandog]

awesome great nice work and lots of luck lets kick some ass.oh how i love the bowls

[Joe Dogs]

Nice work Goldengreek,looks like you put allot of time and effert into this bowl system.

I,m going to keep an eye on this thread....Best of luck.

[CappinTerp]

Thank you for taking the time to share with the forum.!!

[Jasonal_98]

This is great information. Thanks, GoldenGreek.

[rake922]

[azn624]

Thanks for all this, BOL this bowl season

[jking0606]

BUCKING THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS

BOWL SYSTEM
BETTING AGAINST THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS
One of the easiest bowl systems around, is to go against the
team on which the current Heisman Trophy winner plays. Here are the results from the last 35 games in which the Heisman Winner played.
HEISMAN WINNER LINE RESULT
1974 SO CALIF 18 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 17 + 6½ WINNER
1975 UCLA 23 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 10 + 14 WINNER
1976 GEORGIA 3 - Pittsburgh (Tony Dorsett) 27 + 3½ Loser
1977 NOTRE DAME 38 - Texas (Earl Campbell) 10 + 6½ WINNER
1978 NEBRASKA 24 - Oklahoma (Billy Sims) 31 + 11 WINNER
1979 OHIO STATE 16 - So Calif (Charles White) 17 + 7½ WINNER
1980 PITTSBURGH 37 - So Caro (George Rogers) 9 - 10 WINNER
1981 PENN STATE 26 - So Calif (Marcus Allen) 10 + 2 WINNER
1982 PENN STATE 27 - Georgia (Herschel Walker) 23 - 4 Tie
1983 MIAMI (FLA) 31 - Nebraska (Mike Rozier) 30 + 11½ WINNER
1984 HOUSTON 28 - Boston College (Doug Flutie) 45 + 6 Loser
1985 TEXAS A&M 36 - Auburn (Bo Jackson) 16 + 2½ WINNER
1986 PENN STATE 14 - Miami (Vinnie Testaverde) 10 + 7 WINNER
1987 TEXAS A&M 35 - Notre Dame (Tim Brown ) 10 + 4½ WINNER
1988 WYOMING 14 - Okla St (Barry Sanders) 62 + 2½ Loser
1989 Houston (Andre Ware) did not go to a bowl.
1990 TEXAS A&M 65 - Byu (Ty Detmer) 14 + 3 WINNER
1991 WASHINGTON 34 - Mich (Desmond Howard) 14 - 6½ WINNER
1992 ALABAMA 34 - Miami (Gino Torretta) 13 + 8 WINNER
1993 NEBRASKA 16 - Florida St (Charlie Ward) 18 + 15½ WINNER
1994 NOTRE DAME 24 - Colorado (R. Salaam) 41 + 7½ Loser
1995 TENNESSEE 20 - Ohio State (Eddie George) 14 - 4 WINNER
1996 FLORIDA ST 20 - Florida (Danny Wuerffel) 52 + 3½ Loser
1997 WASH ST 16 - Michigan (Charles Woodson) 21 + 6 WINNER
1998 MISSISSIPPI ST 11 - Texas (Ricky Williams) 38 + 6½ Loser
1999 STANFORD 9 - Wisconsin (Ron Dayne) 17 + 13½ WINNER
2000 OKLAHOMA 13 - Florida State (Chris Weinke) 2 + 10 WINNER
2001 MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 - Nebraska (Eric Crouch) 14 - 8½ WINNER
2002 IOWA 17 - Southern California (Carson Palmer) 38 + 5 Loser
2003 LOUISIANA ST 21 - Oklahoma (Jason White) 14 + 5½ WINNER
2004 OKLAHOMA 19 - So California (Matt Leinart) 55 + 2 Loser
2005 TEXAS 41 - So California (Reggie Bush) 38 + 7 WINNER
2006 FLORIDA 41 - Ohio State (Troy Smith) 14 + 4 WINNER
2007 MICHIGAN 41 - Florida (Tim Tebow) 35 + 10½ WINNER
2008 FLORIDA 24 - Oklahoma (Sam Bradford) 14 +5 WINNER
2009 ALABAMA 37 ( Mark Ingram)- TEXAS 21 - 4 LOSER

RESULT: 25-9-1: 73.5% VS SPREAD

TAKE OREGON + 2.5

All i need to see is ur orgeon pick an i know this aint gonna win cause ur throwing one of the easiest common sense bets of the yr an getting it wrong!!! SEC DOMINATES COLLEGE FOOTBALL!!! PERIOD END OF STORY!!!

[caseyking2]

Let's GO BOWLING!!!! Love the system

[goldengreek]

All i need to see is ur orgeon pick an i know this aint gonna win cause ur throwing one of the easiest common sense bets of the yr an getting it wrong!!! SEC DOMINATES COLLEGE FOOTBALL!!! PERIOD END OF STORY!!!

These are not my picks bro

These are just sytems and trends

Read the first post... use it as a guide..not the bible

[wunwun]

Great info.
Hope I don't catch analysis paralysis though.
Thanks

All my points given.

[Pajda]

Great work, thanks for sharing all the info.

[goldengreek]

bowls from 12/15 to 12/24:
1) favs of 3.5< pts are 18-3 su, 17-4 ats ( 2-1 in 2009)

2010:
Louisville - 3
troy - 3
n.ill - 1.5

2) totals of 63.5> pts are 12-3 over (avg score 82 ppg) ( 0-1 in 2009)
2010:
Over tulsa / hawaii



bowls from 12/25 to 12/31:
1) dd dogs are 17-3 ats l20 ( 1-0 in 2009 )
2010:
Wash + 14

bowls from 1/1 to 1/10:
1) favs are 9-2 su, 8-3 ats l11 in lower tier bowl games

2) mac teams are 1-8-2 ats l11 ( 0-3-2 in 2009 )
2010:
Fresno + 1.5
troy - 3
florida inter + 1.5
middle tenn st + 1

*** note ***
on the very bottom fresno, troy, and flor inter are not plays as this system is for bowls between 1/1 - 1/10

[Duby]

Holy crap. That's a lot of stats to digest. I love it. Thanks GG!

[F42294]

Wow, almost too much information. I love this stuff!!!

[flocko76]

So would you say to take all the systems and find the common picks and play those?