HOLY @#$$ ARE THE ODDS MAKERS JOKING? Amazing Lines

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  • Jca6000
    SBR High Roller
    • 12-05-08
    • 124

    #1
    HOLY @#$$ ARE THE ODDS MAKERS JOKING? Amazing Lines
    I cant believe some of the lines this weekend, its unreal. I see a few that im going to be betting absurd amounts on and thats why I came here for my rare post to offer my advice and get your opinion.

    Miami -8 Predicted Score: 31-16
    Florida -14 (buy .5 point) Predicted Score: 31-13
    TCU -4.5 -- Just after watching numerous TCU and Utah games this year, I dont see how houston compares anywhere in talent level. Houston is prone to giving up easy touch downs and having mental lapses. TCU is a solid football team that is a legit title contender. Score: 34-21
  • Kubilak
    SBR High Roller
    • 10-04-10
    • 125

    #2
    I believe you mean TCU @ Utah. An easy way to make people fade your picks is to analyze a line with incorrect teams.
    Comment
    • Jca6000
      SBR High Roller
      • 12-05-08
      • 124

      #3
      It was clearly a typo. I had a pretty late night last night.

      An easy way to make people fade your picks is to analyze a line with incorrect teams......Haha Im not trying to convince you to bet on my the teams I chose, Im simply offering my advise and asking for opinions. You obviously are mistaken behind the intent of this entire forum.
      Comment
      • JMUplayer
        SBR MVP
        • 08-27-09
        • 2765

        #4
        Have you seen Miami's QB play? Harris more than likely out and MD is flying high.....
        Comment
        • Jca6000
          SBR High Roller
          • 12-05-08
          • 124

          #5
          yeah he came in for part of UVA game, he is really athletic and is going to be a pretty good qb. He came in to start the 2h and looked to be decently poised but just kept making mistake after mistake. However, you could tell he was slowly settling down. After a horrible 3rd Q he came out in the 4th Q and basically racked up about 150 yards passing and a couple td's (although he did throw an int on about the first play of the 4th q) He is also a mobile quarter back which will give Miami more options.
          On the maryland side...I have not missed a Maryland game in years. They seem to be flying high but really not too much. We have beaten the worst of the ACC and barely done it except for Wake. We matched up extremely well against Wake but Miami will be a different story. Athletically Miami is on an entirely different level than MD and the recruits are light years apart. This is going to show on the O line and D line. Wake is a small and crumbling team with NO real talent. Dont let the high score against them fool you. MD wont be able to push their way around a more athletic Miami team. I really cant even grasp how the line could be so low. Yes I know UVA beat Miami but Miami IS the better team and a program like Miami isnt going to roll out 2 horrible losses in a row at home to the lesser teams of the ACC at, especially when this next one is homecoming. I hate to admit this as much as anyone being I am an absolute die hard Maryland fan, but after this week its back to reality for MD football.
          Comment
          • Jca6000
            SBR High Roller
            • 12-05-08
            • 124

            #6
            Also for some statistical support for the Vanderbilt game....

            Vanderbilt has played 4 teams this year comparable to Floridas level: LSU, South Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia......the only other possible consideration is Ole Miss but I feel UF is a good bit better than them.

            Of those 4 Comparable games..
            Vanderbilt was out gained in total yards 1978 - 678 (Opponent gaining nearly 3X as many yards per game)
            Vanderbilt gained a total of 35 First Downs to their opponents 93.
            Vanderbilt scored 24 points total against those four teams and had 140 points scored against them.

            of the 4 games used: 2 were at home and 2 were away.

            Also if you arent sure just how low 678 yards is over those 4 games...thats an average of 169.5 yards per game. Which would be off the charts lower than any team would ever average per game. I think the worst team in NCAA right now is averaging around 240 yards a game.

            Total Vandy is averaging 195.6 yards in SEC play (through 5 games)

            This line is just plane stupid.

            Vandys offense is dead, non existent. Florida might only have to score 14 points to cover the line lol (if you buy .5 point)
            Comment
            • bdavies26
              SBR High Roller
              • 07-06-10
              • 188

              #7
              Another thing to consider in the Vandy game: Warren Norman (SEC Freshman of the Year last year, star RB) is out for the Dores.
              Comment
              • autotide
                SBR High Roller
                • 07-19-10
                • 104

                #8
                pretty unlikely that TCU can't cover
                Comment
                • PickCityz
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 09-18-10
                  • 158

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Jca6000
                  Vandys offense is dead, non existent. Florida might only have to score 14 points to cover the line lol (if you buy .5 point)
                  Florida = Better defense than Arkansas + Decent Offense = 14+
                  Comment
                  • thebestthereis
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 03-01-09
                    • 11459

                    #10
                    Originally posted by JMUplayer
                    Have you seen Miami's QB play? Harris more than likely out and MD is flying high.....
                    This is exactly why you take Miami.
                    Comment
                    • sweethook
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-21-07
                      • 12667

                      #11
                      houston ? anyway i like tcu , gl
                      Comment
                      • sapidoc
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-25-10
                        • 1273

                        #12
                        TCU is the only good game you have listed. Prepare to get burned on both Miami and Florida.
                        Comment
                        • man_of_steel
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 03-29-10
                          • 437

                          #13
                          Was kinda liking them gators too. GL tho.
                          Comment
                          • Jca6000
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 12-05-08
                            • 124

                            #14
                            Originally posted by sapidoc
                            TCU is the only good game you have listed. Prepare to get burned on both Miami and Florida.
                            Im sorry but you are wrong this week. Everyone can come back and harass me if Miami and Florida dont win. My biggest bet of the year has been 4k. Im putting 4k on both of these two.
                            Comment
                            • Jca6000
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 12-05-08
                              • 124

                              #15
                              Originally posted by sweethook
                              houston ? anyway i like tcu , gl
                              haha I accidently called Utah, houston twice sorry. It must be the red uniforms, quick strike offense that keeps making me want to call Utah Houston. sorry.
                              Comment
                              • sapidoc
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-25-10
                                • 1273

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Jca6000
                                Im sorry but you are wrong this week. Everyone can come back and harass me if Miami and Florida dont win. My biggest bet of the year has been 4k. Im putting 4k on both of these two.
                                Then you agree that buying the half-point for Florida is retarded?
                                Comment
                                • Jca6000
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 12-05-08
                                  • 124

                                  #17
                                  No, I feel 85% confident with 14.0 but 99% with 13.5 Because considering Vanderbilt is prbly going to only cross midfield once or twice (I hope you watch the Georgia, LSU, South Carolina and Arkansas games) btw Vandy only put up 14 on Arkansas from trick plays. when your going 4k the extra assurance is key. I might up the florida bet though since obviously pay is adjusted from buying points. Seriously Vandy will not score over 14 poitns this game. Ive seen the majority of Vandys games over the past 8 years. This is the worst they have been in a LONG time.
                                  Comment
                                  • sapidoc
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 03-25-10
                                    • 1273

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Jca6000
                                    No, I feel 85% confident with 14.0 but 99% with 13.5 Because considering Vanderbilt is prbly going to only cross midfield once or twice (I hope you watch the Georgia, LSU, South Carolina and Arkansas games) btw Vandy only put up 14 on Arkansas from trick plays. when your going 4k the extra assurance is key. I might up the florida bet though since obviously pay is adjusted from buying points. Seriously Vandy will not score over 14 poitns this game. Ive seen the majority of Vandys games over the past 8 years. This is the worst they have been in a LONG time.
                                    Gimme a min. I'm going to make one of my special lines offers for these games. Anyone else that likes Miami and Florida don't waste ur points in the SBR book -- I'm gunna give you something nice.
                                    Comment
                                    • Jca6000
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 12-05-08
                                      • 124

                                      #19
                                      and with the MD game our OL is just getting worse and worse. WF is the only team we will be able to dominate on the OL. Miami is going to man handle MD's O-Line (its full of replacements , backups, young kids) Of Course we man handled WF they for the past 3 years have not been getting stellar recruits or talent and it shows. When our O-Line breaks down look for freshman QB DOB to not have the best game. and the back up (well more of 1A 1B) QB Robinson is an absolute joke. He has no field awareness and is simply just a good athlete (MD Rating) but ultimately a mediocre athlete compared to the rest of Miamis talent. Although we have two pretty good RB;s to use, the O-Line is even worse at rush blocking than pass blocking. The talent gap here is too large, especially when there is NO chance of MD coming in and surprising Miami. Miami knows we are at least somewhat capable after the Wake game now, and the UVA loss has Miami on high alert. It sucks to be betting against my team especially when im heading down to Miami for the game, but line is too good to pass. All time since ive been going to MD games for years im 4/4 when betting against my team in games I go to. I RARELY ever bet against my team, but this one is too obvious my friends.
                                      Comment
                                      • Jca6000
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 12-05-08
                                        • 124

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by sapidoc
                                        Gimme a min. I'm going to make one of my special lines offers for these games. Anyone else that likes Miami and Florida don't waste ur points in the SBR book -- I'm gunna give you something nice.

                                        Your just going to make yourself look bad. These two bets arent loosing. I know I dont post here very often, but its because realistically im not going to get on here and post my picks every week but these two are just awesome. They arent even going to be close. Ive been following ACC and SEC teams closely and betting for about 8 years. RARELY do I ever see lines this messed up. Dont embarrass yourself anymore bro.
                                        Comment
                                        • sapidoc
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-25-10
                                          • 1273

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Jca6000
                                          Your just going to make yourself look bad. These two bets arent loosing. I know I dont post here very often, but its because realistically im not going to get on here and post my picks every week but these two are just awesome. They arent even going to be close. Ive been following ACC and SEC teams closely and betting for about 8 years. RARELY do I ever see lines this messed up. Dont embarrass yourself anymore bro.
                                          Miami is -7.5 now.
                                          Comment
                                          • Jca6000
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 12-05-08
                                            • 124

                                            #22
                                            Sweet. Let it keep falling. If it drops 0.5 more point im putting 10k on it.
                                            Comment
                                            • Jca6000
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 12-05-08
                                              • 124

                                              #23
                                              the odds makers knew what they were doing when they made the line +12.5, although they were still wrong, and the public keeps thinking Maryland is hot because we beat Wake, Duke and BC. let me say that again WAKE, DUKE and BC. Come on Folks.
                                              Comment
                                              • Jca6000
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 12-05-08
                                                • 124

                                                #24
                                                I think MD is a decent team dont get me wrong. I was ALL and I mean ALL over the MD Wake line last week -5.5. and ALL over the Duke +16 line against Navy. But these lines are even better. Was up +4.8k last weekend so ive got some extra to blow. I could be making my biggest bet ever this weekend if I get one of the lines up to 14k
                                                Comment
                                                • sapidoc
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 03-25-10
                                                  • 1273

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Jca6000
                                                  Sweet. Let it keep falling. If it drops 0.5 more point im putting 10k on it.
                                                  Would love to see the slip for this. I seriously wish you the best of luck.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • sapidoc
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-25-10
                                                    • 1273

                                                    #26
                                                    Go wild guys:

                                                    *** Special NCAAF Lines Offering for Miami and Florida ***


                                                    Comment
                                                    • Jca6000
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 12-05-08
                                                      • 124

                                                      #27
                                                      Thanks man. Good luck to you too. I wish you would trust me. I wouldnt come on here like this if I didnt know what I was talking about. I can take a screen shot of the bet slip and post it in here if you want? Ill try to get on here Thursday/Friday when all bets for me are complete and post my weekend card. Honestly though after having watched about every Vandy game this year and about every Florida game (ive been to 2 Florida games this year too) there is just no chance. Vandy CAN NOT move the ball. Its going to be a shit show. Ive been to quite a few vandy games over the years so to give you a little on the home field situation. Florida will travel just as well to this game as Vandy will and yes it is at vandy. Within the past couple years I have been to Vandy at home vs Florida and Vandy at home vs LSU. Both times there were at least as many away fans as home fans and the LSU game, well LSU fans took the cake. Vandy student section will be about 75% filled but that will last till about 2 min before halftime as usual when about 50% of the students will leave, but you cant blame them the game wont be close it will be pushing 21-7 24-7 by halftime.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • sapidoc
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 03-25-10
                                                        • 1273

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Jca6000
                                                        Thanks man. Good luck to you too. I wish you would trust me. I wouldnt come on here like this if I didnt know what I was talking about. I can take a screen shot of the bet slip and post it in here if you want? Ill try to get on here Thursday/Friday when all bets for me are complete and post my weekend card. Honestly though after having watched about every Vandy game this year and about every Florida game (ive been to 2 Florida games this year too) there is just no chance. Vandy CAN NOT move the ball. Its going to be a shit show. Ive been to quite a few vandy games over the years so to give you a little on the home field situation. Florida will travel just as well to this game as Vandy will and yes it is at vandy. Within the past couple years I have been to Vandy at home vs Florida and Vandy at home vs LSU. Both times there were at least as many away fans as home fans and the LSU game, well LSU fans took the cake. Vandy student section will be about 75% filled but that will last till about 2 min before halftime as usual when about 50% of the students will leave, but you cant blame them the game wont be close it will be pushing 21-7 24-7 by halftime.
                                                        It doesn't really matter to me if you post the slip or not. If you want to have a points wager with me, check out my offer:

                                                        *** Special NCAAF Lines Offering for Miami and Florida ***
                                                        http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...ml#post7228939

                                                        I don't have anywhere near 14K on these games at all. I almost hope you win your bets over me cause 14K is a ton of $. Best of luck this weekend.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • sapidoc
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-25-10
                                                          • 1273

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Jca6000
                                                          the odds makers knew what they were doing when they made the line +12.5, although they were still wrong, and the public keeps thinking Maryland is hot because we beat Wake, Duke and BC. let me say that again WAKE, DUKE and BC. Come on Folks.
                                                          Yea, the only issue there is that the public is on Miami, not Maryland. Oh, and also on Florida.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • utmoody10
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 11-19-08
                                                            • 304

                                                            #30
                                                            Not with you on Miami but I'll be all over Florida, best of luck.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • pittmatt80
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 01-30-10
                                                              • 358

                                                              #31
                                                              Good luck with your bets man hope they come thru for you, but I don't like any of those games. I think they can go either way TCU is the only one thats reasonable because they have really good offense and very solid defense which they are really going to need against Utah. Think the other two are just to close and either opponent could cover.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Jca6000
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 12-05-08
                                                                • 124

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by pittmatt80
                                                                Good luck with your bets man hope they come thru for you, but I don't like any of those games. I think they can go either way TCU is the only one thats reasonable because they have really good offense and very solid defense which they are really going to need against Utah. Think the other two are just to close and either opponent could cover.


                                                                Thanks for your guys opinions. Honestly TCU is my least lock of the 3.

                                                                I dont understand how the florida vandy line is not 21. I have watched vandy plan inside and outside this year and they have nothing. They are a poorly coached talentless team who can not move the ball at all. Their program is an embarrassment. Right before the season started the team was so bad that Bobby Johnson quit, ultimately screwing over Vandy as they did not have time to find a new coach. Thur the unproven assistant coach has taken over. The results have been horrid. Vanderbilt has no method at all to move the ball. Even when teams such as Georgia or LSU took their foot off the gas defensively. Vanderbilt continually failed to execute on offense.

                                                                Teams will always be able to compete with teams that are a little better than them talent wise. However, Vanderbilt expresses to great of a drop in talent. They really missed out on the past 3-4 years of recruiting and have been going downhill since the departure of Jay Cutler and Earl Bennett.

                                                                Look for Vandy to come out in this game trying everything and anything to get points on the board and for Florida to counter these chances that will turn into mistakes. Vandy has no fire power, no trustable QB, banged up RB, worst home field in the SEC etc.

                                                                As for betting against the public I usually make the majority of my biggest bets against the public. It is important to realize that sports betting exist because the firms and bookies make money. They make money by attempting to guess what the public will think the line should be so that 50% of the money is on each side, not so that they pick the favorite team.
                                                                Also another problem with looking at percentages of public on certain teams is a complete lack of knowledge of where the money is coming from. The majority of the public betting has little idea what they are doing and simply betting on teams they like or have a hunch on. Thus like this weekend if 100 people have a $75 hunch on Vanderbilt, or one person who bets for a living places a bet of $5,000. The betting percentage would extremely suggest that Vandy was the publics favorite, but realistically the confidence betting lies in the Florida line.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Jca6000
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 12-05-08
                                                                  • 124

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by utmoody10
                                                                  Not with you on Miami but I'll be all over Florida, best of luck.
                                                                  I am the most die hard Maryland fan in the world, making this bet kills me. I rarely rarely do it. But we are simply "fakers" right now. We struggle against horribly against teams like Clemson, FSU, Miami, West Virginia...athletic teams who ultimately have more talent than we do. BC, Wake, Duke, Navy all has less or equal talent to us and we were able to capitalize. I hate to admit it as I am the last person who EVER says Maryland doesnt have a chance. In fact I even I have money riding 50-1 on maryland to win the ACC (now thats a bet). But this weekend is a loss for the terps..

                                                                  btw can you believe MD was 50-1 to win the ACC???
                                                                  I calculated odds of advancing out of their side as around 6-1 (its a 3 team race FSU, NC St, MD) but MD has the two home games vs FSU and NC St.
                                                                  Then I figured at worst 3.5-1 dog in CHamp game vs prbly Va tech thus bringing worst case scenario at roughly 23-1 but the line offered 50-1!! They have since adjusted it back to 25-1 though...dumbasses...

                                                                  50-1?? That means assuming that +350 is the worst MD would be vs Va tech
                                                                  Then the odds makers are putting MDs chances of advancing out of their side as nearly 15-1!
                                                                  15-1 in a 3 team race, when MD has the two home games? I think not...


                                                                  before the Wake game last thursday I placed $500 on MD to win the ACC..Pay out is $25,000
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • sapidoc
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 03-25-10
                                                                    • 1273

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Jca6000
                                                                    As for betting against the public I usually make the majority of my biggest bets against the public. It is important to realize that sports betting exist because the firms and bookies make money. They make money by attempting to guess what the public will think the line should be so that 50% of the money is on each side, not so that they pick the favorite team. Also another problem with looking at percentages of public on certain teams is a complete lack of knowledge of where the money is coming from. The majority of the public betting has little idea what they are doing and simply betting on teams they like or have a hunch on. Thus like this weekend if 100 people have a $75 hunch on Vanderbilt, or one person who bets for a living places a bet of $5,000. The betting percentage would extremely suggest that Vandy was the publics favorite, but realistically the confidence betting lies in the Florida line.
                                                                    Posted percentages are based on bet volume (# of bets) not on bet size (total $). Books rarely release %-ages relating to the % of money on each side. If you have this information, please share where you see %'s representing % of money.

                                                                    This is why you have to look at line movement to try to decipher where the smart money is.

                                                                    Make no mistake here. The public is on Florida, and on them LARGE.

                                                                    You example is bad since 100x$75 is $7500. So in your example you have 100 bettors on Vandy > 1 bettor opposed and you also have $7500 on Vandy > $5000 opposed. Either way ($ or volume) the %-age will show Vandy with an edge.

                                                                    If you had 1000 people bet $1 on Vandy and one 'smart professional' bet $10,000 opposed. The percentages would show more on Vandy. The line however, may move in FAVOR of Vandy (RLM) since there is smart money coming in on Florida.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Jca6000
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 12-05-08
                                                                      • 124

                                                                      #35
                                                                      I think you might of missed my point....I realize that the situation I described would lead to Vandy having an edge in the Publics mind. My point is that it is better to trust the money betters than just the sole percentage of people betting. A large number of idiots betting small amounts on games will cause the real betters big bets to be hidden. The proportion of bets that are made by "non solid bettors" as opposed to real bettors is astronomical. It is almost entirely impossible, nor reasonable to bet based on the public. Smart bettors dont give a shit where other people bet. I am up numerous tons and tons betting and I have never once looked at the public. You yourself seem to be smarter than the average public, dont listen to them.
                                                                      Comment
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