Originally posted by Jca6000
That's all that matters! 
-
That's all that matters!
Comment -
There are 3 lines that I cant believe are real......
First is Illinois +3 @ Mich. I do not understand how Mich keeps being favored when they are so bad at every position. Denard cannot win games alone against quality opponents. Illinois will be the best D they play against so far this year. I was expecting Illi -6.5 or maybe ever -7......This is unreal value.
second is TCU -4.5 @ Utah. Im thinking that maybe this jacked up BCS system is working in the serious betting mans favor here because I cant think of a single reason the line is so small. I expected this line to be TCU -10 at the lowest and i would have bombed that line too. TCU will roll !!!!
Third is OKLA -3 @ TAMU. a bad loss against Mizzou seems to have dropped the value of the sooners and people are quite high on TAMUs QB. Hes a big Cam Newton type body with half the talent. Sooners have their way with the Aggies for sure.
I thought I learned my lessen a long time ago about parlays but these lines might make me rethink things lol
tell me what ya think.Comment -
Another interesting thing I just ran into....Vanderbilt nearly leads the country in TD's honestly I just dont understand how Vanderbilt can cover the line. Floridas defense will just simply be too good.
Answer me two questions please
At what point this year (along any of Vanderbilts games) have you any indication to believe that Vanderbilt is capable of scoring any decent amount of points against Florida?
Its always good to consider how teams are losing...dropped balls, penalties, turnovers etc.
Vanderbilts reasons are the hardest to overcome. Poor talent, lack of chemistry, poor playing calling, no comparable advantages anywhere on the field. Poor teams can sometimes handle themselves because they often have at least a little edge in one area they can pound. Vandy has no edge anywhere on the field vs florida. Expect another game similar to Ga vs Vandy.
Heres something you should also strongly consider. To me this right here exemplifies just how bad Vanderbilt is
Vandy vs Georgia: Got to Georgia 37 two times in the game. Closest they got to scoring. ONLY times they crossed midfield in the entire game. They crossed midfield on (2/12) possessions. 0/12 Possessions in FG range.
Vandy vs LSU: Crossed midfield on 3/11 possessions. One time they got within FG range ( courtesy of a 51 yard run) to net their only points of the game. No sustained drives exist. 1/11 possessions in FG range
Vandy vs South Carolina: Vanderbilt had 13 possesions. 1/13 was within FG range in which Vandy scored a TD. Other than that one drive they didnt cross the South Carolina 40 once the entire game.
Vandy vs Arkansas: Vandy had 2 decent drives in the 1st Quarter, after that they didnt get passed their own 45 until garbage time in the 4th Quarter. Ultimately 3 possesions within FG range out of 13
Thus in comparable SEC Games here how it breaks down
Vandy Georgia: 0 Points, 0 Possessions within FG range
Vandy LSU: 3 Points, 1 possession within FG range
Vandy SC: 7 Points, 1 Possession within FG range
Vandy Ark: 14 points, 3 possessions within FG range
Also these stats arent coming in defensive battles, they are blow outs where Vanderbilt has plenty of chances.
In Vanderbilts 4 comparable SEC games they have 5 total possessions that got within FG range.
Its basically a really good HS team out there.Comment -
Well as you know I am on the TCU line with you....
First is Illinois +3 @ Mich. I do not understand how Mich keeps being favored when they are so bad at every position. Denard cannot win games alone against quality opponents. Illinois will be the best D they play against so far this year. I was expecting Illi -6.5 or maybe ever -7......This is unreal value.
About this game...I really do think Illinois has a great defense that doesnt get enough credit. However when you consider Michigan at home, and that Denard is a an amazing athlete the line scares me. I however do not follow the Big ten like I do the ACC/SEC and a slew of smaller conferences. I wouldnt bet it too strong. I would imagine that in the publics eye Michigan is the clear pick here so if you are to bet it I would wait till Sat morning and see if you cant get +4.
Third is OKLA -3 @ TAMU. a bad loss against Mizzou seems to have dropped the value of the sooners and people are quite high on TAMUs QB. Hes a big Cam Newton type body with half the talent. Sooners have their way with the Aggies for sure.
I follow these two teams some. I need to go back and remind myself of all the games I have seen these two teams play. I have bet on both teams this year. The Kansas Texas A&M line was hot a few weeks ago
. I dont know what the odds makers were thinking. Kansas is BAD. But it makes you wonder wtf Ga Tech was doing that one game? Anyway......sorry for the random rants...."
Third is OKLA -3 @ TAMU. a bad loss against Mizzou seems to have dropped the value of the sooners" If you can find this in betting you have found the key. Certain games really change the values of teams in the eyes of the public and odds makers without warrant. Just as MDs win over Wake has everyone believing in MD. However MD couldnt of had a better match up than Wake Forest, they are dead where we are dying. I do like this line though. I would rank your lines as 1. TCU 2. Okla 3. Illi with possibly writing it off. This is all just IMO.
On another note....I tend to avoid "big" games. Texas A&M brings a decent home crowd and they get fired up for games. All that emotion makes it harder to pin point a winner. I prefer more low profile games like the Florida Vandy game in which Vandy fans will half ass show up to the game, scalping the other half of the tickets to Florida fans.Comment -
Hello sir,
Thought I would chime in here, but you probably won't like it. I am against you on all three games. One reason I am posting is because of the nature of your post, "Are the odds makers joking" and other talk such as this.
I think you focus too much on Vanderbilt and not enough on Florida. Yes Vanderbilt is a bad team. However Florida is just as bad. I generate a series of numerical lines when evaluating games, each of them with independent methods and perspectives on what makes a line. One of my favorites (albeit quite error-prone) is what I call a Quick Line. In the Quick Line, I take the net yards per play of each team and compare them to each other, giving 1 point to every 0.15 YPP difference between the teams, then give 3 points to the home team for home field advantage. Florida's current Net YPP is 0.2, while Vanderbilt's is -0.6. This amounts to Florida +0.8 YPP which yields about Florida -5, however they are on the road, which yields approx Florida -2. This line has very large error, but I use it everytime when selecting games because it does give me a quick look at a team's overall relative strength based on the non-SOS-adjusted season to date. It doesn't tell me to play Vanderbilt, but it is a good indicator to not play Florida. I have several other independent indicators that tell me Vanderbilt +14 is a good play, which I will not go into.
The same formulas apply to the TCU @ Utah game and the Maryland @ Miami FL game.
In closing, I will tell you my adjusted average line for these games, and the final selections I made. I wish you luck, but more I caution you to "Slow your roll" on the big 10k play.
my line = Vanderbilt +3.5 -> selection = Vanderbilt +14
my line = Maryland +3 -> selection = TBD, leaning Maryland +8
my line = Utah +1 -> selection = TBD, leaning Utah +5
GL with your decision, sir.Comment -
Interesting, I see in your next post you select Illinois +3 and Oklahoma -3. I am directly against you on those two games as well! Very interesting, indeed! Michigan -3 is already a 1 unit play of mine alongside Vanderbilt. I was going to play Texas A&M +4.5 but the line dropped to 3 and therefore I'm off due to about 11% of lost edge.
I'd almost be curious to see more of your selections to see if this trend continues!Comment -
Originally posted by Flight
I didnt select any of those
I bet 70% of my betting on Florida
15% on MIAMI (I accidently said Maryland, thats why the edit is here, you can clearly read back and see I was on Miami, not that you wouldnt believe me since Miami didnt cover anyway)
But...as said in the previous posts Florida was a lock...congrats haters
15% on TCU.
Those other picks werent mind. Good job reading son
I made bank today, sucks if your fading me
Comment -
Yes Vanderbilt is a bad team. However Florida is just as bad
Yes Vanderbilt is a bad team. However Florida is just as bad
Yes Vanderbilt is a bad team. However Florida is just as bad
Yes Vanderbilt is a bad team. However Florida is just as bad
Yes Vanderbilt is a bad team. However Florida is just as bad
LMAO!!!!!
Nice one Flight.
Im going to make sure and never look at your posts for info..
WARNING ALL BETTERS.....
Flight: "Yes Vanderbilt is a bad team. However Florida is just as bad"Comment -
Vanderbilt total yards 110 Florida total yards 410
This game went the same as the georgia, south carolina, lsu, arkansas. congrats
Comment -
Congrats on your win Jca6000, you were right.Comment -
Vandy had me scared there for a little while, they kept it closeComment -
kept it close? 55-14 haha easiest call of the day. Good job on them and TCU man
Who do you like tonight?
S. Car -4 and Mizzou -4 for me
Leaning Oklahoma -3 AlsoComment -
lol sorry I didnt reply sooner I actually bet Money Line Arkansas, and TA&M I ended up getting +5 at the close of the line. Didnt mess with Mizzou, early on for lines this week I like BC .
More to come.Comment -
Hey and if you are a Maryland fan like me you can bet them -20 tonight just because. 
Comment -
However...we normally suck early on and we are gonna be searching for a new leading scorer althoguh J-Will will fo sho take that role. Play SHOULD be seattle +20 but maybe Ill get lucky, small play just to make it more funComment -
NEW PICKS
BC -3.5
Ga tech +130
Maryland -2.5
WV -5
GOOD LUCK LETS HOPE FOR ANOTHER HOT WEEK!!!!!! Sorry I havent been posting all my picks. the cash is still flowing in
Comment -
Another hot day!!!
WV was the big play as it was in bold
Sorry about the Ga tech game fellas.
Im adding more money to the MD line. too bad no one is on here following me.Comment
