Cheme82's CFB plays for November

[GGZOLA]

can I ask a question which boggles my mind?
You say u are up 300+ units in college football, but your record is 624-684?? What do yo do?
Lose 20 plays of 1 unit each then win a 50 unit play or something?

[chilidog]

Just go through his thread. He wagers different amounts per game.

[GGZOLA]

1200 college games...thats insane gotta take a closer look thanks 'dog

[GGZOLA]

beginning of this thread: CFB YTD
606-675-25 +283.46 units

1 month ago, 9/26/10 to be exact your post:
CFB
YTD267-283-6 +74.10 units

this means you went 339-392 (forget unit claims you played 731 spreads in 1 month? thats like playing 160+ college games a week!
AND with this record, you gained almost 210 units?
Can someone tell me what i am missing. Not trying to bash/hate, just very odd stuff.

[chilidog]

He was betting halves, quarters, CPs, etc., which is bookie no longer allows him to do. So, he was playing a ton of plays because of that, with varying wager amounts.

[Cheme82]

Thanks for explaining chili.

Yeah bro, all my threads have links to the previous thread (i create a new one every month for every sport). You can see all the plays there. I was betting full game, halves, 1st. Q, totals, parlays (for full games, halves, and 1st. Quarters) so that's why you see an insane amount of plays.

As far as the record and the units won the reason why I have a record of less than 50% and still a lot of profit is because of the parlays. I was playing 2-team parlays paying 2.5 to 1, 3-teamers paying 5 to 1, and 4-teamers paying 10 to 1. It's not that I lost a bunch of 1-unit plays and then hit a 50 unit play. My money management doesn't allow me to play more than 5% of my bankroll and even as good as this year has been my bankroll is nowhere near 1,000 units for CFB.

Hope that clears it up.

[Cheme82]

Friday 11/12/2010
Parlay Idaho +35 and under 65 +250 6

GL

[chilidog]

Friday 11/12/2010
Parlay Idaho +35 and under 65 +250 6

GL

Heh, looks like my local doesn't allow CPs. Oh well

[thebestthereis]

take idaho

[Cheme82]

At +35 and -105 you have a 2% edge

[jolmscheid]

At +35 and -105 you have a 2% edge

Hey Cheme just to be sure...you are comparing the +35 at -105 to the line that Pinny has right using the 1/2 point calculator...and that's how you came up with a 2% edge? Thanks bro

[thebestthereis]

i got 35.5 -110

[Cheme82]

Yes jolmscheid. That's a good # bro.

[thebestthereis]

i needed 65

[Cheme82]

Lmao! I needed 65 and under 100.

Results:
0-1-0 +6 units

YTD
626-685-25 +297.44 units

[jolmscheid]

Hey Cheme...you think it would be OK to do the calculations the night before on College football and basketball weekends when there are so many games??? I mean, one would think that a lot of the sharp money has come in now, so would it be fine to do the calculations now or do you still wait until morning?? thanks

[Cheme82]

The closer to gametime the better, but life gets in the way of sitting in front of the computer for hours so you do them as close as gametime as you can. When CFB started I would spend Friday night going through the card and then early Saturday morning whenever I didn't finish because I play tennis on weekday mornings.

1st. Q lines for example didn't get posted until Saturday morning so I couldn't do that until then. Tomorrow I have a lot going on because I have to go run a charity race at my daughter's school at 7:30 a.m. then we are going to a renascence festival with the family and finally I have friends coming over to watch the Pacquiao/Margarito fight at night so whatever I can get done tonight is probably what I will play for tomorrow because I won't be around.

[jolmscheid]

Gotcha...these are the edges that I found...do these look about right?


Maryland -2.5 .15 tw .1
Duke +3.5 1.51 tw 1.44
Georgia Tech +3.5 .98 tw .93
Florida State -5.5 1.53 tw 1.46
Oklahoma -14.5 .36 tw .34
Georgia +7 4.64 tw 4.42
Cal +20 2.71 tw 2.58

[chilidog]

I agree with some of them, but not all. For instance, Maryland. I keyed in the numbers to the calculator, along with the -105 juice that I'd pay, and for the -2.5 default spread, they fav edge is -0.11%.

These are the plays that I found, but I'm not going to bet them yet. I was mainly doing it to time myself how long it took me to do all the college games for tomorrow, and it took me about 30 minutes:

CFB
West Virginia -4.5 0.34%
Duke +3.5 1.44%
Miami-Florida -2.5 2.31%
Iowa -9.5 0.99%
Colorado +3.5 0.67%
Oklahoma -14.5 0.34%
Georgia +7.5 4.58%
Tulane -2.5 1.5%
Virginia Tech -2.5 0.67%
Baylor +3.5 0.26%
Utah State -2.5 0.25%

I'm curious if cheme comes up with the same.

[Cheme82]

Saturday
11/13/2010
South Florida 3.5 -125 6.40
Mississippi 3.5 -125 5.50
Colorado St. 7.5 -115 3.20
Notre Dame 7.5 -135 5.60
Virginia 3.5 -115 6.50
TCU -28 -105 2.50
TCU over 54 -105 2.50
Washington St. 24 -105 1.25
Washington St. under 56 -105 1.25
New Mexico 33 -105 3.00
New Mexico under 56 -105 3.00
Rutgers 3.5 -115 7.40
Georgia 7.5 -115 9.10
Kansas 35 -105 3.10
Kansas under 61 -105 3.10
Arkansas -28.5 -105 2.50
Arkansas over 60 -105 2.50
LSU -33 -105 4.00
LSU over 46.5 -105 4.00
South Carolina 7.5 -115 2.40
Arizona St. 7.5 -135 4.20
Texas 7.5 -135 5.60
Tulsa 3.5 -115 6.50

Parlays
San Diego St. +28 and under 54 +250 5.00
Oregon St. -24 and over 56 +250 2.50
Air Force -33 and over 56 +250 6.00
Nebraska -35 and over 61 +250 6.20
UTEP +28.5 and under 60 +250 5.00
UL Monroe +33 and under 46.5 +250 8.00

GL

[Cheme82]

Note the 12 plays with -105 juice are the opposite sides of the 6 CP's I'm playing and should not be played if you are not on the CP's (their only edge is covering the other side of the CP without actually betting both sides for obvious reasons).

[chilidog]

Wow, just 30 minutes later, and the plays have changed. Some of the ones that you posted weren't positive edge when I did it like an hour ago, and now they are. I guess it keeps changing?

[Cheme82]

Did you use Bodog and Pinnacle?

[chilidog]

I have pinnacle and bookmaker/betcris side by side, since I found out that my local use cris lines (except for the -105 reduced juice)

[Cheme82]

Well that creates different plays, I use Pinnacle and Bodog because my local uses Bodog.

[jolmscheid]

I've got pinny vs betjam or brobury. So if we have different books then we should really be following our own plays? Cuz if we follow chemes plays at a different book then won't it throw off our edge?

[thebestthereis]

the edge is created by the difference in the sharp line, square line, and juice on buying points. if you don't have those abilities to some degree you cannot create the edge you need.

[thebestthereis]

I've got pinny vs betjam or brobury. So if we have different books then we should really be following our own plays? Cuz if we follow chemes plays at a different book then won't it throw off our edge?

jolm try sportsbook.com. they have -170 on 3 points and they are likely to mirror bodog, certainly more than bet jm. you don't need to have all the games cheme has and you may even find some better than him in certain instances. use the calc to create your edge no matter what book you have, some will be better than other of course. cheme is creating his edges off the numbers the books offer, not from pixy dust from tinker bell

sportsbook.com is a "square" shop similar to bodog or BetUs.

[chilidog]

Hmmm, here's where I stand as of now, and I can't make up my mind which way to go.

1. Follow the plays 100% that cheme listed, even though I no longer have an edge on some of them, because either the spread or the line has changed, and eliminated the edge. or ...

2. Follow the plays that I came up with, which have given me an edge at my book.

Following cheme has been rather profitable, so it's making me a little nervous to do my own thing. Plus, some of the plays that I now have an edge on, are going against some of cheme's plays. What would you guys do?

[jolmscheid]

Hey guys...if I am at Brobury Sports (Which is a part of Sportsbook.com i think) and they only offer -105 lines on Fridays, you think I can still get an edge buying 3 points from -110 lines? That would be -170 obviously,....and then I also found out that they charge more for key numbers in football which sucks....so I'll have less plays but hopefully can still find some edges...now what about comparing lines to Matchbook lets say, and Matchbook has a better number than Pinny that offers value, is that a good play, or is it not a good play because Matchy is a "sharp" book

[jolmscheid]

And Best....are you currently using this system at Sportsbook.com?? They are listed as a D- book here on SBR....

[chilidog]

I decided to just stick to cheme's plays, but I also did all the calculations myself, and while it came up with some different plays, I did not bet those; I am just tracking them for a week to see how they compare to cheme's. Hopefully it's just as profitable.

[chilidog]

Hey guys...if I am at Brobury Sports (Which is a part of Sportsbook.com i think) and they only offer -105 lines on Fridays, you think I can still get an edge buying 3 points from -110 lines? That would be -170 obviously,....and then I also found out that they charge more for key numbers in football which sucks....so I'll have less plays but hopefully can still find some edges...now what about comparing lines to Matchbook lets say, and Matchbook has a better number than Pinny that offers value, is that a good play, or is it not a good play because Matchy is a "sharp" book

Yes, you'll still get an edge buying 3 points at -110, as long as it's -170. Buying 3 points for -170 is pretty much just good for basketball. Football will cost you a chunk to buy 3 points. So I only checked the calc for football with up to 1.5 points both ways.

As for which sharp book you choose, that's up to you. I know that cheme has mentioned that it's okay to use either pinnacle or the greek, but I would assume the same for matchbook.

And Best....are you currently using this system at Sportsbook.com?? They are listed as a D- book here on SBR....

They are listed as a D- because they didn't pay out on correlated parlays some time ago. Personally, I've used betus and sportsbook.com for the JM system for a few years now, and have gotten paid every single time. I don't know why sportsbook are betus are rated lower. I guess buyer beware, but I've never had issues with them. Granted, I'm not playing cheme's plays on sportsbook.com or betus, just with my local for now. I have started to track his plays if I were using sportsbook.com/betus, though, and I'm sure that they'll be profitable as well.

[thebestthereis]

And Best....are you currently using this system at Sportsbook.com?? They are listed as a D- book here on SBR....

jolm no, my local is online and i can get -170 on the 3 point buy and the lines are square from a book different than pinny

[Cheme82]

Results:
16-13-0 +14.83 units

YTD
642-698-25 +282.61 units