Why is Cal only -2.5 against nev?

[uanl]

I was going to ask the same thing.

found them...they are the percentages on the sbr odds page... and if im not mistaken, those percentages are based on one book

try using http://www.twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm when you look up percentages ..good source..

[AdamRB22]

win or lose, nevada is the right side on this one... do you wanna be on vegas' side or do you wanna be on joe public's side?

i can't talk you out of the right side

Or it could be Vegas wants you to think it a fishy line so you take Nevada with no logical reason why you took them then after the game you say WTF was I thinking??

[Calbears]

Don't overthink it fellas. Cal is a far more superior team and will cover. Neveda is not going to be able to slow Cal's offense down so if you're really concerned about a "trap" - go with the over. And yes, I did go to Cal.

[uanl]

Don't overthink it fellas. Cal is a far more superior team and will cover. Neveda is not going to be able to slow Cal's offense down so if you're really concerned about a "trap" - go with the over. And yes, I did go to Cal.

because the far superior team always wins and covers right?

[gamble]

You know why I like sports betting more than Wall Street trading? People actually police sports betting! I'm sick and tired of hearing about the great and powerful Colin Kapernick. Here are Kapernick's stats vs. major conference teams: 2009: @ ND 12/23 149 yds 2 INT 10 rushes 39 yards (35 - 0 LOSS) vs. Mizzou 17/28 146 yds 1 TD 13 rushes 59 yards 1 TD (31 - 21 LOSS) 2008: vs. Texas Tech: 23/34 264 yds 1 TD 1 INT 17 rushes 92 yards (35 - 19 LOSS) @ Mizzou: 17/31 152 yds 1 TD 8 rushes 71 yards 1 TD (69 - 17 LOSS) vs. Maryland: 24/47 370 yds 3 TD 2 INT 9 rushes 15 yards 1 TD (42 - 35 LOSS) Nevada has lost its last 8 games vs. ranked teams by an average of 27 points. This includes the aforementioned loss to "#23" Notre Dame who subsequently fired their coach because he couldn't coach defense. Yet they managed to shutout Nevada's "high powered offense." They do not fit the profile of a team capable of upsetting BCS conference teams. There is no evidence that Cal has ever overlooked Nevada, as Cal is 22-1-1 all time vs. the Wolfpack. Home field will not be as big a factor. Mackay Stadium has a capacity of approximately 30k, yet last season home attendance never exceeded 24k, even against major conference teams and instate rival UNLV. If anything, there should be a fairly decent contingent of Cal fans who made the relatively short drive up I-80 from the Bay Area and Sacramento for this game. Look, sometimes things aren't what they seem. But sometimes, they're *EXACTLY* what they seem. You cannot let some boogie man "sharp bettors" psych you out whenever you have a game to pick. I for one expect Cal to control this game from the opening kickoff and never trail. That's my opinion, that's what I'm putting my money on. Could I be wrong? Of course, its not impossible, but that's what money management is for to make sure you don't get wiped out on a fluke.

solid post man, i like cal to get it done

[BigDofBA]

I went from being on Cal, to being on Nevada, to no play for me. LOL.

For some reason I think Cal lays an egg against a pumped up Nevada team tomorrow. The line also looks too easy. That's why I would take Nevada if I played it.

[Calbears]

because the far superior team always wins and covers right?

I'm not saying that but if I had to put my money on this game (which I am), I'd bet on probability and talent rather than trying to figure out who the squares are...it's your money bro.

[BookieOweMe]

take it!!

[BigDofBA]

How do we know Cal is far superior?

They have played UC Davis and Colorado.

[mitote]

A squares favorite capping word just edging out fix for the number 1 spot! Trap!

[uanl]

How do we know Cal is far superior?

They have played UC Davis and Colorado.

another good point..

[fury]

Cal is usually overrated every year, but I think this game stays close with Cal pulling away in the 4th quarter.

[TheSchafe]

Nevada just doesn't show up for big games/big opponents. Didn't SMU kill the Wolfpack 55-10 or something like that during a bowl game last year? SMU was a two touchdown underdog too, IIRC.

Basically, what I'm trying to say is...I can't see Cal losing this one. -3 is a steal.

[harlee71]

Taking Cal Bears here and Kansas in the early game.

[hoop guru]

Oddsmakers are making it easy for cal to cover the 3 point spread. I do not respect the WAC conference especially nevada and boise st. It seems like nevada and boise settle for cupcake schedules. I respect san jose st for playing at #1 alabama and than playing at ranked wisconsin. Best thing that could happen for overrated boise st was for VT to lose in week 2. NExt best thing to happen to boise would be for CAL to blow out nevada real big and than nevada tod defeat boise st. This way everyone that is on the boise st bandwagon can fall off. IF this happens, it will help CAL move up in the rankings.

[SR]

line is weird and I'm biting.....cal -2.5

[m12miyashiro06]

Nevada struggles in big games

[Sunde91]

NC State was a square play tonight. With all of those things you posted taken into account, why the fuk would NC state be favored by less than a FG? Your theory about Vegas thinking squares would be on Cincy because of last year maybe would have been valid in week 1. This is week 3. No one is paying attention to what happened last year at this point.

Public squares and sharps alike pounded opening line of NCST +2. We know this by the %s bet on NCST and the big, fast line movement as Vegas promptly moved it to -2.

And the biggest sign of a "square play" is w/e the common fan's perception of that team is. Does the common fan/public bettor really have that much of a higher opinion of NCST than they do Cincy? Really doubt it. So the "square play" is debateable.

It also seems like you think public money on a team = square play a priori, which is a pretty square notion in itself, because you're acting like the public never wins and Vegas is some magic entity that predicts the future and always makes the line right where it wants it with perfect intention.

The hard part is determining a "trap" from a line Vegas is genuinely off. Or are games like these genuine traps that went wrong, genuine lines? Pretty impossible to know, but it's obvious Cincy was overvalued tonight, trap or not.

[Sunde91]

As for this game, I'll paste my response from another thread.

Nevada = #1 Rushing Offense in 2009, #6 already in 2010 with returning 3rd year starting senior RB Vai Taua, who ran for 1300+ yds in 2 years; and 4th year starting senior QB Colin Kaepernick, who ran for 1100 yards in 08 and 09 and 2000+ passing in all 3 years. Nevada has 18 returning starters total.

And if anyone remebers from last year, Nevada was about an endzone fumble away from beating Mizzou SU at home on a Friday as a 7.5 dog; won all their other home games.

And the public is absolutely pounding Cal as what might be a suspiciously low road fav. Nevada as a big anti-public home dog under the lights with one of the best running games and a chance at one of their biggest home wins in years..

Maybe just found my first play of the week. Some big RLM or a +3.5 would be delish.

[Sunde91]

Hmm, 4 of the 5 squarest "experts" in the history of sports are on Nevada...http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/expertpicks this makes absolutely no sense to me..

Paranoia swirls in my head thinking trap/no trap/reverse trap

[Killer_Demo]

I know abll about kapernick, Im from turlock, ca his home town. But he wont beat the cal bears by himself. Nev spet rec is terrible last 3 yrs. Their non conf last 3 yrs also bad. What makes the line to be less than a field goal?

Someone enlighten me pls

i live 15 minutes from t-lock...you ever hear of newman?

[MendozaLine]

I dont think that public money on one side means its square play. But If a superior team is favored by less than a FG, and the majority of the betting world is on the favorite, its a square play. I side with the public all the time. Im on USC -12.5 this weekend.

Public squares and sharps alike pounded opening line of NCST +2. We know this by the %s bet on NCST and the big, fast line movement as Vegas promptly moved it to -2.

And the biggest sign of a "square play" is w/e the common fan's perception of that team is. Does the common fan/public bettor really have that much of a higher opinion of NCST than they do Cincy? Really doubt it. So the "square play" is debateable.

It also seems like you think public money on a team = square play a priori, which is a pretty square notion in itself, because you're acting like the public never wins and Vegas is some magic entity that predicts the future and always makes the line right where it wants it with perfect intention.

The hard part is determining a "trap" from a line Vegas is genuinely off. Or are games like these genuine traps that went wrong, genuine lines? Pretty impossible to know, but it's obvious Cincy was overvalued tonight, trap or not.

[Spartan14745]

When something seems too good to be true it probably is, especially in sports betting. I'm on Nevada +3.

[pdx107]

no way i would take my alma mater Nevada

[hubie69]

Interestingly enough

I like Cal in this game, I just think they're the superior team. I understand that Nevada is going to post some points, but I don't think they can keep up with Cal. If only all games were actually played on paper .

I do have an actual question here though. The cal game last night before going to bed was -3 @ -110. I got up this morning and it was still -3 but at -145. This is the second time I've seen the line stick but the payout move significantly on games for this weekend. does that typically indicate the "bookie" is getting fairly heavy money on, in the case, cal? The lesser payout odds I imagine would push people off of the cal game.

Can somebody correct me there if thats wrong?

[MrTwiz]

i live 15 minutes from t-lock...you ever hear of newman?

Hell yeah I have. Ive been to plenty of festas. Im portugese

[GoCougs!]

Love the write up agharah1. My 2 cents has me leaning towards Cal, but only for 1 unit.

[LTCOL27]

I like Cal in this game, I just think they're the superior team. I understand that Nevada is going to post some points, but I don't think they can keep up with Cal. If only all games were actually played on paper .

I do have an actual question here though. The cal game last night before going to bed was -3 @ -110. I got up this morning and it was still -3 but at -145. This is the second time I've seen the line stick but the payout move significantly on games for this weekend. does that typically indicate the "bookie" is getting fairly heavy money on, in the case, cal? The lesser payout odds I imagine would push people off of the cal game.

Can somebody correct me there if thats wrong?

You are correct. The book doesn't want to move the number off of 3, so they adjusted to -145 in order to collect more juice on Cal, which either pushes people to the other side to balance the action, and to balance the heavy money coming in on Cal, or it at least compensates them with higher juice in case Nevada covers, with the Cal backers paying a higher price for their wager.

[alukk]

Squares were all over NC State tonight and won. Squares will be all over CAL tomorrow night. Vegas will not lose back to back nights.

So i guess your a sharp (fuk squares, im a sharp now also cuz im fading the public), Nevada +3 it is then, ty

[coloradobuff]

nevada great offense..love that pistol..

[Killer_Demo]

Hell yeah I have. Ive been to plenty of festas. Im portugese

yea the biggest portugese town is 4 miles in gustine...nice to meet a fellow 209'er

[bretb27]

this is the sharpest reply i have ever read in my life. Absolutely right. I love it when people see a line they love and they have every intention of betting it, and someone says the word trap.. or sucker... or square. If a line looks too good to be true, bet it! Don't let all these "sharps" at sbr tell you not to. Most of the people on this site are just looking for advice anyways, and I would say a very small percentage actually makes money when it's all said and done.

You know why I like sports betting more than Wall Street trading? People actually police sports betting! I'm sick and tired of hearing about the great and powerful Colin Kapernick. Here are Kapernick's stats vs. major conference teams:

2009:
@ ND 12/23 149 yds 2 INT 10 rushes 39 yards (35 - 0 LOSS)
vs. Mizzou 17/28 146 yds 1 TD 13 rushes 59 yards 1 TD (31 - 21 LOSS)

2008:
vs. Texas Tech: 23/34 264 yds 1 TD 1 INT 17 rushes 92 yards (35 - 19 LOSS)
@ Mizzou: 17/31 152 yds 1 TD 8 rushes 71 yards 1 TD (69 - 17 LOSS)
vs. Maryland: 24/47 370 yds 3 TD 2 INT 9 rushes 15 yards 1 TD (42 - 35 LOSS)

Nevada has lost its last 8 games vs. ranked teams by an average of 27 points. This includes the aforementioned loss to "#23" Notre Dame who subsequently fired their coach because he couldn't coach defense. Yet they managed to shutout Nevada's "high powered offense." They do not fit the profile of a team capable of upsetting BCS conference teams.

There is no evidence that Cal has ever overlooked Nevada, as Cal is 22-1-1 all time vs. the Wolfpack.

Home field will not be as big a factor. Mackay Stadium has a capacity of approximately 30k, yet last season home attendance never exceeded 24k, even against major conference teams and instate rival UNLV. If anything, there should be a fairly decent contingent of Cal fans who made the relatively short drive up I-80 from the Bay Area and Sacramento for this game.

Look, sometimes things aren't what they seem. But sometimes, they're *EXACTLY* what they seem. You cannot let some boogie man "sharp bettors" psych you out whenever you have a game to pick. I for one expect Cal to control this game from the opening kickoff and never trail. That's my opinion, that's what I'm putting my money on. Could I be wrong? Of course, its not impossible, but that's what money management is for to make sure you don't get wiped out on a fluke.

[N.O.S.]

I went from being on Cal, to being on Nevada, to no play for me. LOL.

For some reason I think Cal lays an egg against a pumped up Nevada team tomorrow. The line also looks too easy. That's why I would take Nevada if I played it.

Same here, i was on Cal, skipped the total and now i'm leaning on Nevada.

[og4667]

nevada hasn't played Cal for many years, the last game Cal played at UNR was in 1915. No reason why Nevada can't stay with Cal here as a friday night home dog. Both teams have played cupcakes and destroyed them, doesn't give us an edge in decidiing who truly is the better team. The WAC is looking to make a name for itself and this game is really a lose/lose for CAL because they are suppossed to win and if they don't then it puts a major damper on their season.

[sweethook]

i think cals fans show and there bigger guys