Why is Cal only -2.5 against nev?

**uanl** · 09-16-10, 09:40 PM

reason: Nevada will win SU ..

**MrTwiz** · 09-16-10, 09:48 PM

How Colin is only offense, cal has great run D. Sory nev whens the last time they beat a pac 10 team?

**Kinger** · 09-16-10, 09:48 PM

Reason: why @ how

**uanl** · 09-16-10, 09:50 PM

this is probably nevada's most important game of the season, they are going to play their hardest to "show up" the pac-10...Cal on the other hand is a much different story when they go on the road compared to when they are at home, and its possible that they could be lookin forward to next week when i believe their conference games start..

**MrTwiz** · 09-16-10, 09:59 PM

Boise is BY FAR their most important game of the yr, and will be the most import of kaepernicks career. Just that nev has failed against talented teams. Cal is definitely talented on defense, a lot more speed then the Division 2 school of colorado state

**MendozaLine** · 09-16-10, 10:01 PM

Squares were all over NC State tonight and won. Squares will be all over CAL tomorrow night. Vegas will not lose back to back nights.

**Serbone** · 09-16-10, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by MendozaLine

Squares were all over NC State tonight and won. Squares will be all over CAL tomorrow night. Vegas will not lose back to back nights.

Squares?
Cincy has no OL, gave up 8 sacks to Fresno. Inexperienced "D". QB can run but not a pocket passer. Coach Kelly is gone. Cincy was only up 12-7 at home at the half to INDIANA STATE last wk. Key WR out for the yr, and RB ????? out.
NC State has solid, aggressive "D", QB who can run AND pocket pass. Coach O'Brien building a winner.
SQUARES are thinking of 2009, betting on last yr's Cincy team.
Home Thursday night ESPN game, small favorite.
You overestimate Vegas, they thought everyone would bet Cincy because of last 3 yrs.
They should have made the line NC St -7 based on facts.
But you are RIGHT about tomorrow. Squares will be on Cal, Nevada will win SU in a squeaker.
BIG game for Nevada, playing BCS team, home ESPN Friday night game. Cal cocky, not so interested. Cal tends to stink one up early in the season every yr.
Take Nevada + 3.

**Superman_Punch** · 09-16-10, 10:24 PM

Originally posted by Serbone

Squares? Cincy has no OL, gave up 8 sacks to Fresno. Inexperienced "D". QB can run but not a pocket passer. Coach Kelly is gone. Cincy was only up 12-7 at home at the half to INDIANA STATE last wk. Key WR out for the yr, and RB ????? out. NC State has solid, aggressive "D", QB who can run AND pocket pass. Coach O'Brien building a winner. SQUARES are thinking of 2009, betting on last yr's Cincy team. Home Thursday night ESPN game, small favorite. You overestimate Vegas, they thought everyone would bet Cincy because of last 3 yrs. They should have made the line NC St -7 based on facts. But you are RIGHT about tomorrow. Squares will be on Cal, Nevada will win SU in a squeaker. BIG game for Nevada, playing BCS team, home ESPN Friday night game. Cal cocky, not so interested. Cal tends to stink one up early in the season every yr. Take Nevada + 3.

**MendozaLine** · 09-16-10, 10:25 PM

NC State was a square play tonight. With all of those things you posted taken into account, why the fuk would NC state be favored by less than a FG? Your theory about Vegas thinking squares would be on Cincy because of last year maybe would have been valid in week 1. This is week 3. No one is paying attention to what happened last year at this point.

Originally posted by Serbone

Squares?
Cincy has no OL, gave up 8 sacks to Fresno. Inexperienced "D". QB can run but not a pocket passer. Coach Kelly is gone. Cincy was only up 12-7 at home at the half to INDIANA STATE last wk. Key WR out for the yr, and RB ????? out.
NC State has solid, aggressive "D", QB who can run AND pocket pass. Coach O'Brien building a winner.
SQUARES are thinking of 2009, betting on last yr's Cincy team.
Home Thursday night ESPN game, small favorite.
You overestimate Vegas, they thought everyone would bet Cincy because of last 3 yrs.
They should have made the line NC St -7 based on facts.
But you are RIGHT about tomorrow. Squares will be on Cal, Nevada will win SU in a squeaker.
BIG game for Nevada, playing BCS team, home ESPN Friday night game. Cal cocky, not so interested.
Take Nevada + 3.

**hitman2010** · 09-16-10, 10:53 PM

Nevada defend could play well this game totally. Cal will have another change the 10.

**MrTwiz** · 09-16-10, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by hitman2010

Nevada defend could play well this game totally. Cal will have another change the 10.

I have no idea what u just said

**sweethook** · 09-16-10, 10:59 PM

Originally posted by MendozaLine

Squares were all over NC State tonight and won. Squares will be all over CAL tomorrow night. Vegas will not lose back to back nights.

dont be so sure ,not a lot of fix in col. ball// now pros id say so

**Aristocles** · 09-16-10, 11:02 PM

Perhaps he ran it through babelfish?

**Darkside Magick** · 09-16-10, 11:02 PM

the whole thing is psychological!!!!!! they put the line out at -2 and now everybody running around thinking why this line is low!! just like nc state was a no brainer tonight....cal win straight up!!!

**Fthenorm** · 09-16-10, 11:03 PM

Nevada ML

**isles71** · 09-16-10, 11:03 PM

The squares argument could be put aside. Nevada has a super exciting QB who I think will struggle in the passing game against CAL. Maybe it's square, but I am betting on Cal -3 and parlaying it with Kansas + whatever it is (I think they will win outright) and maaaaybe Calgary CFL style.

**Bartmeister** · 09-16-10, 11:04 PM

Should be good games.

**Michigan** · 09-16-10, 11:04 PM

looks like a good line but those are the ones that Vegas almost always wins it seems.

**TrapperDapper** · 09-16-10, 11:05 PM

Cal hasn't been good for a few years. Look for a statement game here.

**texhooper** · 09-16-10, 11:09 PM

hard to see cal losing here. the only time i will take these kinds of bets is in the first 3 weeks. cal it is for me.

**BigDofBA** · 09-16-10, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by Michigan

looks like a good line but those are the ones that Vegas almost always wins it seems.

Agreed.

Just looking at the game Cal stands out as the easy choice.

I think that's why I am going to take Nevada. Someone talk me out of it.

**uanl** · 09-16-10, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by BigDofBA

Agreed.

Just looking at the game Cal stands out as the easy choice.

I think that's why I am going to take Nevada. Someone talk me out of it.

win or lose, nevada is the right side on this one... do you wanna be on vegas' side or do you wanna be on joe public's side?

i can't talk you out of the right side

**steve18** · 09-16-10, 11:18 PM

This will be one of those games where the BCS team wins and covers. I have no doubt Cal will win this game.

**BigDofBA** · 09-16-10, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by uanl

win or lose, nevada is the right side on this one... do you wanna be on vegas' side or do you wanna be on joe public's side?

i can't talk you out of the right side

I think you're right. Everytime a game looks too easy, it usually isn't.

Cal is a BCS team coming off a route of a Big 12 Colorado. Nevada is a mid-major WAC team. Casual fans would take Cal in a heart beat....

Nevada returns 9 starters on offense and is playing at home on a Friday night. I expect them to play well.

My heart says take Cal but something else is telling me to take Nevada. I'll probably just put a small wager on Nevada to fade myself. LOL.

**jarvol** · 09-16-10, 11:26 PM

NC St was a trap......winner.
Cal is a trap.......
ECU is a trap......
Nebraska is a trap......
Texas is a trap......
Iowa is a trap......

**wake14** · 09-16-10, 11:29 PM

gotta love CAL!!!!

**linewiz** · 09-16-10, 11:42 PM

Squares?
Cincy has no OL, gave up 8 sacks to Fresno. Inexperienced "D". QB can run but not a pocket passer. Coach Kelly is gone. Cincy was only up 12-7 at home at the half to INDIANA STATE last wk. Key WR out for the yr, and RB ????? out.
NC State has solid, aggressive "D", QB who can run AND pocket pass. Coach O'Brien building a winner.
SQUARES are thinking of 2009, betting on last yr's Cincy team.
Home Thursday night ESPN game, small favorite.
You overestimate Vegas, they thought everyone would bet Cincy because of last 3 yrs.
They should have made the line NC St -7 based on facts.
But you are RIGHT about tomorrow. Squares will be on Cal, Nevada will win SU in a squeaker.
BIG game for Nevada, playing BCS team, home ESPN Friday night game. Cal cocky, not so interested. Cal tends to stink one up early in the season every yr.
Take Nevada + 3.

Serbone...excellent writeup.

**fishmonger** · 09-16-10, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by jarvol

NC St was a trap......winner.
Cal is a trap.......
ECU is a trap......
Nebraska is a trap......
Texas is a trap......
Iowa is a trap......

I like this idea. But I thought cincy was the trap?

**BigDofBA** · 09-16-10, 11:55 PM

Originally posted by fishmonger

I like this idea. But I thought cincy was the trap?

Agreed.

Vegas put out a line wanting people to bet on Cincy. It's pretty obvious this isn't the same Cincy team from the past three years. They were also playing on the road.

Cincy was the trap was it not?

**Intuitive_Edge** · 09-16-10, 11:59 PM

This NV team hasnt really shown me it can compete when its forced to step up to competition in a better foe. Definitely interested in this game tomorrow though.

**jarvol** · 09-17-10, 12:12 AM

Opening the line at Cincy -3 was def not a trap line to entice the public to bet on them on the road after they got their face ripped off in Fresno.

You thought it was a trap because their line moved from -3 to +2 yet the public at 60% was on NC St.

69% on Cal.
66% on ECU.
66% on Nebraska.
61% on Texas.
64% on Iowa.
Yet the lines aren't moving or moving away from the public's money. It isn't just as easy as just betting against the public now is it?

**uanl** · 09-17-10, 12:14 AM

Originally posted by jarvol

Opening the line at Cincy -3 was def not a trap line to entice the public to bet on them on the road after they got their face ripped off in Fresno.

You thought it was a trap because their line moved from -3 to +2 yet the public at 60% was on NC St.

69% on Cal.
66% on ECU.
66% on Nebraska.
61% on Texas.
64% on Iowa.

It isn't just as easy as just betting against the public now is it?

where do you see those percentages? my sources say different..

**BigDofBA** · 09-17-10, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by uanl

where do you see those percentages? my sources say different..

I was going to ask the same thing.

**agharah1** · 09-17-10, 12:22 AM

You know why I like sports betting more than Wall Street trading? People actually police sports betting! I'm sick and tired of hearing about the great and powerful Colin Kapernick. Here are Kapernick's stats vs. major conference teams:

2009:
@ ND 12/23 149 yds 2 INT 10 rushes 39 yards (35 - 0 LOSS)
vs. Mizzou 17/28 146 yds 1 TD 13 rushes 59 yards 1 TD (31 - 21 LOSS)

2008:
vs. Texas Tech: 23/34 264 yds 1 TD 1 INT 17 rushes 92 yards (35 - 19 LOSS)
@ Mizzou: 17/31 152 yds 1 TD 8 rushes 71 yards 1 TD (69 - 17 LOSS)
vs. Maryland: 24/47 370 yds 3 TD 2 INT 9 rushes 15 yards 1 TD (42 - 35 LOSS)

Nevada has lost its last 8 games vs. ranked teams by an average of 27 points. This includes the aforementioned loss to "#23" Notre Dame who subsequently fired their coach because he couldn't coach defense. Yet they managed to shutout Nevada's "high powered offense." They do not fit the profile of a team capable of upsetting BCS conference teams.

There is no evidence that Cal has ever overlooked Nevada, as Cal is 22-1-1 all time vs. the Wolfpack.

Home field will not be as big a factor. Mackay Stadium has a capacity of approximately 30k, yet last season home attendance never exceeded 24k, even against major conference teams and instate rival UNLV. If anything, there should be a fairly decent contingent of Cal fans who made the relatively short drive up I-80 from the Bay Area and Sacramento for this game.

Look, sometimes things aren't what they seem. But sometimes, they're *EXACTLY* what they seem. You cannot let some boogie man "sharp bettors" psych you out whenever you have a game to pick. I for one expect Cal to control this game from the opening kickoff and never trail. That's my opinion, that's what I'm putting my money on. Could I be wrong? Of course, its not impossible, but that's what money management is for to make sure you don't get wiped out on a fluke.