Back Louisville Cardinals (-14½) vs. Utah Utes

Game Time: 10/05/2007 08:00 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Louisville's season has been a losing proposition against the spread. But at home on Friday night, the Cardinals should win and cover the number against the Utah Utes.

Regular readers will recall that we successfully went against the Cardinals a few weeks ago when they hosted the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. Favored by more than five touchdowns, Louisville never came close to covering the huge number.

The Cardinals followed up that sub-par effort with back-to-back upset losses, falling as five point favorites to in-state rival Kentucky before getting absolutely shocked by Syracuse, losing 38-35 as 37½-point favorites. That stunning loss ranked among the greatest upsets of the modern football era.

The Cardinals didn't hang their heads though and were able to bounce back with a solid 29-10 win and cover at NC State last week. Despite that impressive win, and due to the Syracuse loss and to their poor overall ATS record, tonight's line (currently -14½) is quite reasonable.

The Cardinals are certainly capable of winning by more than two touchdowns. In fact, their last nine straight up victories have all come by double-digits. The Cardinals are 7-3 ATS the last 10 times they were favored in the -10½ to -21 range and 13-7 ATS the last 20 times they were favored by more than eight points.

The Utes, on the other hand, have already lost by more than a touchdown three times. Both road games resulted in losses of 17 points or more which dropped them to 4-10 ATS their last 14 regular season road games.

While these teams haven't faced each other this millennium, Louisville head coach Steve Kragthorpe faced Utah in last year's Armed Forces Bowl. At the time, he was the coach of Tulsa. The Utes would win that game 25-13. That result should help ensure that Kragthorpe keeps the pedal to the metal the entire way here. Consider laying the points.

Free Pick: Louisville -14½ (-110)