SoonerBS 2010 Play-On Games

[SoonerBS]

Iowa State

Last season was new HC, Paul Rhoads' first season with the Cyclones after being the DC for Auburn. Offensively, the ISU production actually went down about 5 points (and this will definitely have to get better and will with 8 starters coming back including their starting QB), but their defensive allowance dropped a whole 14 points! I think this is huge for Iowa State and it is definitely a step in the right direction for a team that needed to show that they could be competitive in the Big 12. ISU had a 7-6 record and actually beat Minnesota in their bowl game. This season they have a very tough schedule, and will likely not have a winning record, but they will still likely give us some covers ATS.

October 30th vs. Kansas -- I think by this time in the schedule, ISU will likely only have 2 wins at the most, but their defense will be better and they should be contesting in some of these games. After taking a whooping against Texas the week before this one, they will host Kansas in a game that they could win. Kansas will host Texas A&M the week before and will likely see this game as an after thought. ISU will likely win this one and cover whatever spread is set.

November 6th vs. Nebraska -- This is a good spot for ISU, but a bad spot for Nebraska who has this away game sandwiched between two home games against Missouri and Kansas. Again, most teams are going to look at ISU as an "easy win" and will likely not get up against them. ISU will be a definite home dog in this game and should keep it close if Nebraska doesn't come interested.

November 20th vs. Missouri -- Again, ISU catches another team in a spot where they will likely not be interested as Missouri has their big Rivalry game against Kansas the next week. This will be ISU's last game of the season, and since they will likely not be going to a bowl by this time, a lot of Seniors will be looking to go out with a bang.

Intriguing Games: Northern Illinois and Utah

[SoonerBS]

Utah

I think it's safe to say that Utah's entire season this year hangs on how well the new players on defense plug the holes and come together. While Utah brings back 8 starters, including the QB, on offense, they bring back only 4 on defense. The big questions seem to be mostly in the linebacking corps and the defensive backfield. Whittingham has recruited some top level recruits from the JC ranks to fill his holes defensively, so again, if this holds up to be a wise decision, Utah could be the MW Champions if they win their game against TCU November 6th.

September 2nd vs. Pittsburgh -- I might be surprised, but I think a team that has 5 starters returning on offense and 6 starters returning on defense is going to have to need a couple of games to get going good -- especially whenever one of those starters is your starting QB making his first road start. The travel distance and elevation change is enough to fade Pitt in this situation, but the experience level between the two teams playing favors Utah way over Pitt. I like a more experienced offensive team in early match-ups and Utah fits the bill. Plus, I tend to rank the Mountain West over the Big East in strength.

October 23rd vs. Colorado State -- This game last season was closer than it should have been, but CSU's losses on offense this season are going to be very hard to overcome and make up any difference in this one. In fact, with this home game coming between road trips for Utah, it is an opportunity to focus on getting a strong win. CSU will not be able to stop it from happening.

Fadable Games: Notre Dame (after playing AF on the road and TCU at home, will there be anymore gas in the tank for this game? I look for Brian Kelly to have his team rolling by this time in the season).

[SoonerBS]

BYU

BYU is use to being one of the "Big 3" in this conference along with Utah and TCU. While they might probably be one of the three this year, too, I look for BYU to have their worse season win-wise since Mendenhall took over the program in 2005. That year, BYU went 6-6, but since then has gone 11-2, 11-2, 10-3, and 11-2. This season, BYU will start a new QB -- one who is not expected to come in and contend as an all-American any time soon. They bring back 6 starters on the offense and their best RB, Harvey Unga, has been cut from the team. It will be difficult to produce the necessary offense this year, especially with their schedule, and especially early in the season. Defensively it doesn't look much better as they only bring back 5 starters and look to fill the holes possibly with true freshmen. This is something BYU hasn't had to do in a long time -- a true rebuilding year. I think the best BYU does this season is 7-5.

October 23rd vs. Wyoming -- After coming off games against TCU and Utah, there will be very little left in the tank for BYU. I like Christensen did with Wyoming last season, and they don't look to be too bad this year, either, but they are not ready to compete with a BYU team at Provo with 7 games under their belt. Bad spot for Wyoming, good spot for BYU coming off a TCU game with an open week ahead.

November 6th vs. UNLV -- While I don't expect this game to be as easy for BYU as it was last year, it still is a game that falls bad for UNLV and good for BYU. UNLV will host TCU prior to this one and then will host Wyoming the next week. This game is played on the road for them and comes after a bye-week for BYU with only CSU on deck. Again, this late in the year, the true freshmen should be closer to being sophomores.

Fadable Game: I don't know what the line will be, but Washington should win the opener against BYU handily. If BYU does end up starting several true freshmen, they are not going to grow up by game time. Also, I already have a fade going on BYU against Florida State who I think will manhandle the Cougars again like they did last year.

[SoonerBS]

Air Force

As you guys know, I like the military schools, this has been well documented. This season I like Army and Navy to have successful seasons, but I don't think AF will be as successful as they have been the last 3 years -- SU or ATS. Although they bring back most all their skill players, they have to replace the entire offensive line. Also, they have to replace several of their front 7 on defense. While the defensive backfield looks decent, I still see them struggling a bit the first half of their season at least. There is one fact that could help them -- sometimes these option based offensive military schools do well at replacing offensive linemen and working them into the scheme. If that happens early, AF might do all right. Still, I'm calling for them to struggle having to replace that many linemen on both sides of the ball.

October 30th vs. Utah -- Utah plays TCU the next week and I can't see them giving Air Force their full attention here. That could spell disaster at this time of the season and playing in Colorado Springs. I look for AF to be more experienced and clicking by this time. Being home dogs, I like them to cover.

Fadable Games: Oklahoma (I shudder to think what Oklahoma will do that inexperienced offensive line) and Army (this could be the year Army wins it).

[SoonerBS]

Wisconsin

After going 10-3 SU last season and bringing back 16 starters off that team, it is looking like another successful year for the Wisconsin Badgers. They bring back 10 of those starters on the offensive side of the ball, so their fans can expect to see more of the 31 ppg average if not more. They also do not draw Iowa or Penn State this year, and their non-conference schedule is easy, so they will likely do better than the 10-3 record of last season. If they have a weak spot on this team, it will likely be on the defensive line with less experience at those positions. Still, the talent is there to make it a solid season.

September 11th and 18th vs. San Jose St. and Arizona St. -- Wisconsin will likely get up to play ASU because they are from the PAC 10 and they have beat Wisky twice in the only two times they have played them. Because of this, Wisky is likely give a poor ASU team a bad beating. However, don't overlook San Jose St., either, as they pack very little punch and will not be able to contend with Wisconsin's size and power. Both games should be easy wins and covers.

November 13 vs. Indiana -- Indiana comes off a game against Iowa the week before and has Penn State on deck in what is one of the biggest nightmare schedules in the Big Ten. Wisky has this home game between two road games. Bad spot for Indiana and a decent spot for Wisky.

[SoonerBS]

Northwestern

Fitzgerald has done an excellent job of making this team competitive in 4 years time (really 3 years) in a competitive conference. He didn't start out getting great recruits to accomplish this goal, but he is certainly starting to see some fruits from the success of his labors in that area as well. It is resulting in more consistency on the field. This season he comes in with only 13 returning starters, but 55 returning lettermen. This is an experienced team and there is some talent to allow them to compete. They are a dangerous team because they get overlooked and can nip an opposing team in the butt if they don't bring their "A" game. Because of this reason, they are a good "play on" team. Even though they have to replace their starting QB, Kafka, the new starter, Persa, brings a lot of positives with his game and many seem to think Northwestern will not miss a beat. One thing is for certain, Fitzgerald will have this team ready to go and compete as he always does.

September 25th vs. Central Michigan -- Central Michigan is not the team we have been accustomed to handicapping in the years past. They have a new head coach, Dan LeFevour is not the all-star starting QB anymore, and they have only 12 starters returning. This game comes in the softest part of Northwestern's schedule, so there is no danger of "layover" or "lookahead" games.

October 9th vs. Purdue -- I stuck this on the "play on" spot because even though Purdue is going to be decent this season, and in some ways they will be even with Northwestern in talent and experience, this game presents a "match-up" problem for Purdue. Northwestern's offense is designed to throw the ball and give their QB the option to run at the same time. Purdue's defense last season allowed for nearly 30 ppg and just under 400 total yards. This season, they have to break in almost an entire new defensive backfield (CBs and Safeties). I think Purdue will struggle mightily against the Northwestern offense on the road.

October 23rd vs. Michigan State -- Coming off would should be an easy home win against Illinois the week before this one, MSU will have this road game against Northwestern, and a road game against Iowa on deck. This is a "lookahead" spot for MSU and Northwestern gets to come into it with plenty of preparation as they have a bye-week the week before.

November 13th vs. Iowa -- This is coming down to the part of the season where teams in great positions for bowl games either finish out strong, or they get tense or lax and allow a team that shouldn't, nip them. Northwestern will be coming off a game against Penn State here, but the pressure will be on Iowa who will be playing Ohio State the week after this one in what could be the game for the conference title. Northwestern catches them in a "lookahead" spot and will be catching home dog points.

Intriguing Game: I don't know what the point spread will be on this game, but I like Northwestern at Vandy in the opener. I don't look for Vanderbilt to be any better than their 2-10 record of last season. They return only 11 starters and there is not much talent there. They will be decent defensively, but not outstanding. Their offense last season was only able to muster 16 ppg and will likely not be much better than that number. They are not use to seeing many offenses like Northwestern's in their side of the SEC, but my hold back here is that they will have some time to prepare for it and they have done well in their openers in the past. Still, if Northwestern comes into this game as a dog, I may have to play them as I think they can win SU, even on the road. I don't worry much about Persa making a road start here because he has actual extensive game experience.

[SoonerBS]

Illinois

I couldn't really find anything I liked for Illinois as good "play on" spots, but, guys, Illinois still has some great talent as it is the one thing Zook can do -- recruit talent. I just have a problem with Zook as a head coach, he just hasn't ever been able to prove that he is a good coach anywhere he has been. He can recruit the players, but he cannot seem to win with them. One thing to look out for with Illinois this season -- they went 4-7 ATS two seasons in a row whenever everyone had higher expectations for them, but now they come into a year where no one has high expectations for them, so I look for Vegas to pad the lines. Also, it seems like it is on the years whenever no one gives Zook a chance, that he produces his best seasons.

[SoonerBS]

Purdue

Purdue managed to go 5-7 last season just missing a bowl bid in what was HC, Danny Hope's first season as HC. It was a small improvement win-wise from the previous year, but it was a small step back in performance. One thing they lacked last season that they will have this season is an influx of better talent to work with. Miami transfer, Robert Marve, will likely start at QB, so the Boilermakers may not miss a beat after graduating Joey Elliot. Still, with only 11 starters returning, there may be some growing pains early. One immediate problem that Purdue is going to have to shore up quick is the fact that they have an entirely new defensive backfield. But, like Phil Steele pointed out in his mag, Purdue has always been a team that plays better than their record indicates and last year they had 4 close losses.

November 13th vs. Michigan -- I have several "intriguing" games to watch for with Purdue, but only one definite "play on" game and this it. While Purdue does have this one sandwiched between Wisconsin and Michigan State, they at least to get to play it home and it comes toward the end of their season whenever they should be showing some improvement. Michigan, on the other hand, plays this road game and then finishes their season up against Wisconsin at home and Ohio State on the road. It would be VERY easy to start looking ahead here with this game against Purdue.

Intriguing Games: Ball St and Toledo (Purdue plays these two games on game 3 and game 4 of the season, so they will have a couple of games under their belt and one of them will have been against Notre Dame their opening game. Ball St and Toledo both are predicted to do well and finish high in the MAC standings this season, SO Vegas may throw out a decent line for Purdue here in these games. I think Purdue wins both of them SU, and like I said, they might even get good lines. It is something we need to watch.

[SoonerBS]

Indiana

This is another team that I don't exactly have any "play-on" games that really reach out and grab me, but after going 7-4 ATS last season with a 4-8 SU record, the Hoosiers will be largely ignored again by Vegas and could have another year where they do well ATS. What makes them so popular as a spread beater is the fact that they are not as good as the rest of the conference and so they get overlooked by opponents who are looking for bigger fish to fry on down the road. Because of this, it would be good for us as handicappers to check out the overall atmosphere surrounding their games to see if we can catch some glimpses of teams looking past them.

[SoonerBS]

Oklahoma

It's surprising to see so many prognosticators across the nation pick the Sooners high whenever they only bring back 5 starters on defense. How could they do that? Because Oklahoma's defense has been good and deep pretty much ever since Stoops took over this program. Every position is full of experienced players, and behind them in the second and third string levels are talent rich recruits. Stoops understands the fact that offense wins games, but defense wins championships. Still, it is good to be bringing back 8 starters on offense off last season's mediocre 8-5 season, too. There are not only good players at every starting position offensively, but like the defense, there are great talented (and experienced) players in reserve. Hell, last season was such a strange season, it would not surprise me to find out that Landry Jones and Demarcus Murray know how to play left and right guard on the offensive line. Everybody else on the offense learned those positions.

September 11th vs. Florida State -- whenever Oklahoma makes the return trip to Florida State next year or in a couple of years, I'll be concerned about losing it. By that time, I expect FSU to be a much better team. But, for now, they do not have the defense to hold Oklahoma in Norman, but Oklahoma does have the defense to hold back FSU. I expect to see a game very similar to the Oklahoma/Miami game of 2007 where Oklahoma got up for them at home, just because they were Miami, and totally annihilated them. Oklahoma will get up for this one and I don't expect it to turn out pretty for FSU.

October 16th vs. Iowa State -- If this game would have come immediately after the Texas game, I would be fading Oklahoma for having a hangover. As it stands though, this comes two weeks after the Texas game and after a bye-week. Oklahoma covers most of their games at home, so you cannot go wrong playing on them here after a week's rest.

October 30th vs. Colorado -- Again, this game is being selected mainly because it is being played at home and Colorado has not been able to prove that they can compete with the big boys the last couple of years. Just like the case for Nebraska, this will be the last time some teams are going to get a crack at Colorado for a while since I expect them to jump right into the PAC 10 next season.

November 13th vs. Texas Tech -- Revenge is sweet. 'Nuff said.

Fadable Game: We're going to fade Oklahoma against Texas A&M. It is always a tough venue to play in whenever we go to College Station, and while I don't think A&M will be world beaters this season, they will certainly be better than they have been and will be a tough win by this time in the season. Oklahoma has Texas Tech on deck . . . .

[SoonerBS]

Texas

So, are we talking a reloading year here, or a rebuilding year? I'm going to believe "reloading" year, but they will not be going back to the NC game, in fact, they will likely not even be going to the Big 12 Championship game. Why would I think that? It's not because of McCoy graduating. I happen to think that Gilbert will be a very good QB and will serve them well. It's not because of their lack of a RB. I also think they have enough talent to establish a decent running game. It's not because of the defense, with 7 starters returning there, they should be able to fill the holes with all the rich talent they recruit every year. So, why do I think they take a step back? Because they have graduated their stud horses that made this team tick up front -- the offensive line. They can brag about all the talent they have stepping into the spots, and they would be right, but it takes at least a year for an offensive lineman to get things figured out, and whenever we couple this fact with needing to get 4 of them working together with the other two, it will take a while. So, Texas is at least a year away from contending for championships again.

September 25th vs. UCLA -- Most people would look at this game and consider fading Texas in this spot because it is sandwiched between a game at Texas Tech the week before and the Oklahoma game following. However, there is two reasons I like this spot for a play on game. One is because I don't think UCLA will be any better than they were last year. They will be a bit better on offense, but their offense was not real impressive anyway. It was their defense that held them in games and gave them a winning season. That same defense lost 6 of their top defensive players and I don't think they will be able to replace them so easily. Secondly, Texas usually makes a very conscious effort NOT to look ahead to the Oklahoma game for obvious reasons. This game being UCLA at home should keep the Longhorns focused.

October 30th vs. Baylor -- If Texas A&M is "little brother," then Baylor has to be "little sister." The best time to play on Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska (and a lot of these better Big 12 teams) is whenever they are at home. DON'T PLAY ON TOP TIER BIG 12 TEAMS ON THE ROAD! Coming between Iowa State and Kansas State, Baylor will be in the middle of the Longhorn crosshairs.

November 13th and November 20th vs. Oklahoma State and Florida Atlantic -- Again, read above, play on Texas at home.

Fadable Game: There is a lot of mystery about the style of offense that Tuberville is cooking up at Texas Tech. This game is still being played early enough in the season that Texas will not know a great deal how to prepare for the offense they will see. Couple this with Tech likely being home dogs and remembering the whooping they got last season and it makes this a good spot to play on Tech and fade Texas.

[SoonerBS]

Texas A&M

While I do not believe like some rabid Aggie fans that Texas A&M have turned into world beaters, I do believe they have improved a bit and will be one or two games better than last season. No one can deny that Sherman has been able to at least better the offense in the two years he's been there as they improved production by 6 to 8 points since 2006, and more than 5 points since last season. The only question I have for their offense this season is the same I have for Texas -- their offensive line. They have to replace 3 linemen from last season. While they replace their center with a Senior, their left tackle, tight end and right tackle will be true freshman, redshirt freshman and sophomore respectively. Steele likes to just discard this fact by saying they will be as good as last season if they will at least stay healthy, but I contend that if they do not mature quickly and catch on to what is going on, this team will struggle more than they did last season. Skill players are only as good as the protection and blocking they get from their line. One thing that will help is the fact that they do have a mobile QB, and based on that alone, I will give the offense a pass and say they will be as good as last season. Defensively, the good news is that they bring back 9 starters, the bad news is this is the same players that allowed 33.5 ppg and over 400 total yards per game last season. Once again, A&M is going to have to be way better on offense than their opponents so they can outscore them to win.

September 11th and 18th vs. Louisiana Tech and FIU -- Sherman is pretty good about allowing the ponies to run up points against weaker competition and they will have it these two games. We all know that FIU is horrible and will not give the Aggies any cause for concern, but there are some who see La Tech as being competitive. My digs on La Tech are that they have to learn an entirely new offensive and defensive system than what they have been running the last several years. This being the second game of the season, there are going to be mistakes. College Station is not a good place to show signs that your team is struggling. Aggies should win and cover these two games comfortably.

October 16th vs. Missouri -- I look for Missouri to be getting some respect from the linesmakers here in this one, but Missouri, like most teams in the Big 12, is just not as good a team on the road as what they are at home. The other added obstacle to their game is that there is a bigger fish to catch at home for them the next week -- Oklahoma. This will likely be a lookahead spot for Mizzou which is a bad thing whenever going into College Station.

November 6th vs. Oklahoma -- I certainly do not think Oklahoma will be looking past Texas A&M to Texas Tech the following week, but Oklahoma does have a tough time with Texas A&M at College Station. Oklahoma has done but embarrass A&M the last several years under bad coaching, and this will be the first season that Texas A&M looks like they could compete a little with Oklahoma. I look for the line to be a juicy home dog line for A&M.

Fadable game: We'll fade Texas A&M whenever they go on the road to Baylor as it is a bad sandwich spot for them between the Oklahoma home game and the Nebraska home game. I also expect A&M's defense to have a tough time containing Griffin if he is healthy.

[SoonerBS]

Texas Tech

A new regime will begin at Texas Tech with Mike Leach having to walk the plank and Captain Tuberville taking over the pirate ship. I loved Leach as a coach and I don't think he gets nearly enough credit for changing the face of the way offense is played now in the Big 12. I know he'll resurface again somewhere soon (Oklahoma State?) but until then our focus is on a Tuberville coached Texas Tech. What do we know about Tuberville? Well, at Auburn, up until his final season there, he always had a powerful running game and a very good defense. I think defensively this season, Tech will likely be better just because Tuberville and his staff are more defensive minded than Leach and his staff ever was. But, what is he going to run on offense? That has been the buzz going around Big 12 blogs over the Summer and the fact is, nobody knows. I think without a doubt, Tuberville will run the ball more than Leach did. But, do you go completely over to a running game with players that have been recruited for a spread offense? The last season Tuberville was at Auburn he hired an OC to replace the running game with a spread type offense and it was a complete disaster. He ended up firing the OC halfway through the season and tried to go back to a running game. The result was a 5-7 season that got him fired after going 9-4 the season before. So, it remains a mystery as to what he is going to try and do this season offensively. One thing is for sure, he does have some talent on this team offensively, and if gets things right, Tech will compete. There were times at Auburn whenever I thought Tuberville was brilliant. And, there were times I thought, "what the hell is he doing?" We'll see which Captain Tuberville we will get steering the ship this season.

September 18th vs. Texas -- Texas got their revenge last year for the loss to Tech that cost them the National Championship bid in 2008. By this game, Tech will have played a competitive game against SMU (and one that we will fade because SMU will catch points and will have a chance to win) and a road game against a team that they can basically "scrimmage" with (New Mexico). Texas will not have played a competitive game as they should dominate both Rice and Wyoming (both these teams will be improved this season, but not on caliber with Texas). So, in essence, this will be the first real test for Texas and they will likely be favored here. That means we get to bet on the home dog, who is still going to be a bit of a mystery to Texas coaches, and will be playing against a Texas team that is at its weakest in several years (although still formidable). I'll take the points here and enjoy the cover.

October 16th vs. Oklahoma State -- Tech and State have been swapping wins here the past 4 years and since Oklahoma State won last year, this year it is Tech's turn. Tech will certainly have the better team as OSU goes through a true rebuilding year, and considering the close events these two teams have had in the past, I am expecting a close line. Tech should win this one going away.

[SoonerBS]

Colorado

Where do I start with this one? Ever since Hawkins has taken over this program in 2006, I have been wrong about Colorado and wrong about Hawkins. So, I'll just stick to what I see in this team this season without bringing in any personal "gut" feelings. The QB controversy of the last couple of years has not helped this team one bit. The RB controversy involving Scott has not helped, either. This season, Scott is gone (transferred) and Hawkins seems to have given his son a permanent seat on the bench and it is Hansen's team to run. I think these are HUGE developments over the past several seasons. Colorado's offensive and defensive production has been only average, but with a more stable environment (especially in Fall camp), I think they can get their heads screwed on straight and focus better on the season. It helps tremendously to have 10 offensive starters back and 7 on defense. They also have a very impressive 55 lettermen returning to this program. Their schedule absolutely sucks though, so I don't see them going to a bowl this season. All the Big 12 teams have the added incentive of wanting to beat Colorado one last time before they leave to go to the PAC 10 and that doesn't weigh in Colorado's favor, either. BUT, as far as covering ATS goes, I think we have some opportunities.

September 4th vs. Colorado State -- Guys, I know this is a rivaly game and I am seeing the line around -10 already. This game is USUALLY played close. However, I think Colorado has a huge advantage this year going into the game over CSU. If everything stands the way it does now, I WILL be playing on this game. CSU brings back only 4 starters on offense off their 3-9 team of last season. More importantly, they graduated their starting QB, the back-up QB tranferred, and the third string QB has a shoulder injury. They are looking to start either a redshirt QB or a true freshman (Steele thinks it will be a true freshman). This will be his first start ever as a collegiate -- in a rivalry game! What is even worse is that he doesn't have an experienced line to protect him, either. CSU will be decent defensively, but I look for Colorado to have their offense clicking a lot better this year. Lay the points in this one, guys.

October 2nd vs. Georgia -- After getting their asses handed to them by California likely, and after a close win against Hawaii, I look for Colorado to catch several home points here against Georgia. Georgia has this game sandwiched between Mississippi St and Tennessee while Colorado has a bye-week before this one. I think this is a good spot for CU.

November 13th vs. Iowa State -- This is a bad spot for ISU who has this road game sandwiched between Missouri and Nebraska.

Fadable Games: We'll fade the Buffaloes at both California and Oklahoma as both games come in the "soft" portion of the teams' schedules. I look for California to give them a "welcome to the PAC 10, pussy" type of game and for Oklahoma to give them a "see you pussies later" type of game.

[SoonerBS]

San Diego State

I know that they only went 4-8 SU and 4-6-1 ATS last year, but anyone that has followed college football the last several years knows that this is an improvement for the Aztecs. If one year HC, Brady Hoke can continue this trend, and I think he will, we can start winning some money with SDST. The Aztecs improved on their offensive production by only 4 ppg, but their defensive production improved by 7 points less allowed. With them being in the second year of the new schemes and bringing back 16 returning starters, I agree with Steele on the fact that they should improve even further this season.

September 25th vs. Utah State -- I know that Utah State is the poster boy for gamblers, but this game on their schedule comes between two home games against Fresno State and BYU. SDST will be coming off a probable loss to Missouri, but they have a bye-week the next week and can leave it all on the field in this game.

October 16th vs. Air Force -- I like to see how teams have done in the past against triple-option teams before I fade the TO team. Last year, SDST only allowed AF 294 yards total offense. What killed them was the 6 turnovers they had in the game. With this game being played at home, TCU on deck for AF, and another year of improvement, I like for SDST to cover this game easily.

November 20th vs. Utah -- Here is a really bad spot for Utah and a great spot for SDST. SDST gets Utah at home with Utah coming off a road game against Notre Dame the previous week and the Mormon Bowl the week following for the season ending game. It would be very easy for them to overlook SDST in this game and that is why SDST is going to cover the spread here.

[SoonerBS]

Wyoming

You have to like what Dave Christensen did with this team last season. As a first year head coach coming over from Missouri to Wyoming, he took a team that had been subpar .500 9 out of the last 10 years and went 7-6 SU and 9-3 ATS. This season their schedule will probably not allow them to be that good with Texas, Boise St and a game at Toledo on their schedule. However, you can bet that Christensen will likely have them in a lot of these games and should keep them close enough to cover some more spreads this season. They bring back 15 starters from last season including their QB, Carta-Samuels. This isn't necessarily what you would call a real talented bunch of players, but I think if last season proves anything, it proves that Christensen can get the most out of what he has available.

September 25th vs. Air Force -- Wyoming only allowed AF 269 total yards in their game in which they lost 10-0. They proved that they could shut down the triple option offense which is important for us betting on them in this game. Wyoming will be just as talented as they were last year, but AF could take a step back. Also, this is a bad spot for AF who plays Oklahoma the week before and has their rival game with Navy on deck. I look for Wyoming to be catching points again at home and could win this one straight up this year.

November 20th vs. Colorado State -- Last season, Wyoming only won this one by 1 point. This year, they get the game at home, it will be the last game of the season, Wyoming is a bit better while CSU takes a step back. This one isn't about "spots" it is just a reverse in direction for two teams. Wyoming should win this game decisively.

Fadable Games: The schedule is brutal, so you can just about take your pick. The one I like the best is at Toledo. Coming off Air Force game and having TCU, Utah and BYU all up up next on the schedule, they could let their guard down against Toledo and lose bad.

[SoonerBS]

UNLV

Here's another MWC with a brutal non-conference schedule. If UNLV had a lighter schedule this season, they would make it to a bowl. This team could do well anyway ATS as they have a veteran team coming back this season and they have showed some glimpses of promise over the last couple of years. Sanford couldn't get them to the next level so he has been replaced by Bobby Hauck, the former HC of Montana. We'll see if being a great coach on the FCS level will equate to being successful on the FBS level. Hauck has talent to work with though and we need to watch this team closely for opportunities this season.

September 25th vs. New Mexico -- It may be too easy, but this game comes in the middle of 5 really tough games and I think UNLV will be looking for somebody to kick the stuffing out of on the field. New Mexico is just that kind of team.

October 30th vs, TCU -- I like this spot for UNLV. They are coming off a bye-week here while TCU comes off the AF game and has Utah on deck. I can't think they will be focusing on UNLV 100% this game and UNLV should be able to take advantage of that fact and cover the spread.

[SoonerBS]

New Mexico

HC, Mike Locksley took over this team from long time coach Rocky Long last season. I'm not sure he is going to be the answer. Not only did they have their worse season more than 10 years, they also dropped 5 points in offensive production and allowed 13 more ppg to their opponents on defense. I have to tell you guys, I don't think this coach is going to take New Mexico anywhere. I know he didn't have much to work with, but at least Long could take less talent and at least have them playing defense. Still, we'll see what happens this season with a team that should be a little better than last season, but still miles away from competing consistently.

September 11th vs. Texas Tech -- Is there such thing as a good "situational" play early in the season? Well, New Mexico can't really afford to lookahead or layover from anybody. But, Texas Tech can, and they play SMU the week before this game and have Texas on deck. They are also the ones who are likely to be giving some big points here in this matchup. I don't look for Tuberville to show a lot here early with texas on deck. So, if NM can score a couple of TDs in this one, they should cover.

[SoonerBS]

Rice

On the years whenever Rice has experience coming back, they usually do well. On the years they do not, they suck really bad. This year they have a lot of experience coming back (18 returning starters and 51 lettermen) but the experience is off a team that really sucked last season. It is hard to read how well Rice will be. One thing about these guys, they are usually smart and catch on fast. However, they really need to learn how to play some defense, even though they are in a league where defense is not always prized. They allowed 43 ppg last season which just absolutely unacceptable and the reason they went a dismal 2-10. So, yes, they should be better, and should even shine a bit on offense, but defensively they are going to have to come up with some answers if they want to go bowling.

September 25th vs. Baylor -- Baylor finishes up a road game against TCU and has Kansas on deck. I really don't think Baylor is going to be concerned about Rice since their sight is set on making an impact against some stronger teams. Remember this, guys -- there will be a conference realignment about 4 or 5 years from now and Baylor needs to make a strong statement in the upcoming years to prove they are worthy of moving on to a mega-conference. They'll beat Rice, but Rice should accumulate enough points to hang in the spread here.

October 2nd vs. SMU -- Without a doubt, SMU will score plenty of points against this Rice defense, but I see this as a game where Rice could score a lot of points against SMU as well. SMU will have finished a game against TCU the week before and will have Tulsa on deck. A bad spot for SMU.

October 16th vs. Houston -- Remember me saying that Houston is susceptible to letdowns at strange times? The week before this they play Mississippi St and the week following this game they play SMU. So, do you think they are going to be focused on Rice? More times than not, this game is played close. After last year's drubbing, I look for Rice to be catching a lot of points here in this game.

[SoonerBS]

Southern Mississippi

Jeff Bower was fired because he wasn't winning enough games, even though he was taking his team a bowl game every season. Larry Fedora was hired because he was the new up and coming hot coach. What has he been able to do in his first two years? No better than what Jeff Bower did. If he doesn't do something more this year, fans are going to start grumbling. Every magazine I have read is calling for S. Miss to have a good chance at winning the CUSA title. I'm not missing the fact that they have some talent on defense and at the skill positions, BUT, and again I think this is a big BUT, they are replacing their offensive line and there is little experience there. Why is it that so many analyst undervalue the offensive line and overvalue the skill positions? I'm just not one of them. Their schedule is not overly difficult, so they could certainly manage to win some games, but with only 3 offensive starters returning, this is probably not a team you want to be throwing money on against the spread. Here's where your money is better spent on this team this season -- look for some good high TOTAL lines and bet the UNDERS on USM. They have 9 starters coming back on this side of the ball and they have both talent and depth there. They are probably going to stay in games they do not belong in because of their defense. So, look for good lines to play the UNDERS.

[SoonerBS]

Marshall

I think we are going to have to keep an eye on this program for the next several years. Marshall really looked like they were fixing to turn the corner towards success last season whenever Snyder got them to a bowl game which they won against Ohio. It wasn't enough for Snyder to keep his job apparently, but by all accounts I have read, Doc Holliday could very well take this team to the next level. He'll have decent crew to work with this season, but his success will really lie a few years down the road after he replenishes the ranks with Florida state recruits. But, for this season, with 14 starters returning, and a Clemson QB transfer, Willy Korn, throwing the ball, there will be a chance for them to go back to a bowl game, and even more of a chance for us to win some money.

All Home Games With the Exception of WVU and UCF -- This will include games against Ohio, UTEP, Memphis and Tulane. Marshall's toughest games will be mostly on the road this season. That gives them more of an incentive to make sure they win these home games against lesser competition. They are spaced out fairly even throughout their schedule, so they should be able to have the rarity of establishing a rhythm from week to week.

[SoonerBS]

Kansas State

It's always difficult for me to get a good read on Bill Snyder coached teams. Last season I said that Prince had the program in such poor shape that K-State would have a losing season. Snyder proved me wrong. They did have 3 more returning starters than this season and several more returning lettermen, but still, the way Snyder recruits JC players to fill in the gaps makes it hard to read this team in the offseason. I DO know that the schedule is tougher this season that what it was last year. So, I, again, am calling for a losing season here with KSU. BUT, I'm not going to bank on it.

October 7th vs. Nebraska -- I don't know why the Cornhusker faithful want to put so much emphasis on one game for 2010, but that is exactly what they have been doing in the offseason. Many of you by now have seen the videos and heard the talk about the smack talk over the Texas game. Personally, I have no idea why Pelini has not come out and reminded everybody that Nebraska will play a "whole" season this year, not a one game season. However, I think it is kind of in line with his personality to let it go. This can't help but trickle down to the players -- I guarantee you. Both Nebraska and K-State will have bye-weeks leading up to this game. I think Snyder will show his experience and knowledge in this game by pushing the right buttons and take advantage of the mindset of the Nebraska players as they look ahead to the Texas game the next week. Guys, I look for us to be getting a good line on this (at least 2 TDs) and don't be surprised if K-State upsets the Cornhuskers while they have their heads in the clouds.

November 27th vs. North Texas -- If I am right about K-State not making it to a Bowl game this season, then this will be the last game of the season for the Wildcats. After getting beat up on during conference play, I look for them to take out some frustration on NT and go out with a BANG. NT will not be able to stop K-State's run game and KSU will likely control the tempo.

[SoonerBS]

Temple

Temple has been doing decently ATS for the last 3 years, but last year they even turned the corner with their SU record as they went 9-4 SU. This season looks to be another positive year as they return 16 starters off last year's squad including their QB. They also return 56 lettermen, so this is a very experienced group. The biggest weak spot on the team though is also the most important position -- quarterback. Last season, Temple started Vaughn Charlton for 9 games and Chester Stewart for the last 4. The numbers are not overwhelming for either of them, but the bottomline is that Charlton lost his job and got moved to tight end and Stewart will begin the season as the starting QB. If he improves from having more reps in the offseason, this will be an even better team than last year.

September 11th vs. Central Michigan -- This is an important game in that it sets the tone for the entire MAC season. CMU is down this year and will be mostly faded by gamblers as they are here in this one. Temple should dominate this game from opening whistle to last gun.

September 25th at Penn State -- I like this spot for Temple. Paterno has taken a somewhat different stand about the non-conference schedule on lesser opponents. Last year he had three of these games and lost them all ATS. His philosophy was to get the game in hand, then throw in some subs and don't show a lot. I think he will do the same here. PSU has Iowa on deck and would probably like nothing more in this game than to just exercise the players, get everyone some experience and play time and get on to game planning Iowa. I think Temple will slide under the cover again this year.

Fadable Games: We'll fade them against Kent State and Miami, OH. The Kent State game is being played before an important match-up with Ohio the next week. The Miami, OH game sets up before what will be likely an appearance in the MAC Championship game which should be decided before this game is played.

[SoonerBS]

Ohio

Last year, Ohio was coming off a 4-8 season and they ended up going 9-5. Those kind of seasons can occur more frequently in the MAC than any other conference. This season they return only 2 less starters than what they had last year, but they lose their starting QB and their leading rusher and receiver and two of their top tacklers. I think this team will very likely take a step back this year. The schedule is not as favorable either with 6 road games. So, as a result, I don't see as many opportunities for "play-on" spots.

October 9th vs. Bowling Green -- This game falls between a couple of easier conference games for Ohio, but Bowling Green has a game with Temple on deck (not that they would be looking past Ohio, but it will still be in the back of their heads). Bowling Green does not come into this season with the experience they had last season. In fact, they are basically starting from scratch on both sides of the ball. They will not be as lucky as they were last season.

[SoonerBS]

Kent State

Last season, Kent came in with the same amount of returning starters and more lettermen than what they have this season and they only managed a 5-7 season. What is going to be different about this season to make them bowl eligible? Last season two things transpired of great importance -- QB injuries and increased defensive production. The Golden Flashes improved defensively by allowing 9 points less a game from their opponents than the previous year. While the overall Total Yardage did not improve that much, this was still much needed improvement that I think will continue into this season. Last year, Spencer Keith was not the starter, but because of injuries to Morgan, Keith became the starter and ended up beating Morgan out before the season was done. This season, Keith will start and their should be better consistency at the QB. Steele has them on his Most Improved list and I have started placing a bit more stock in Steele's list over the years.

September 18th at Penn State -- Again, we will see a big spread here, PSU will likely be suffering from "Alabama Layover" and last year PSU didn't show much interest in their MAC games. I just can't be persuaded that PSU will show anymore interest this year than they did last.

November 6th vs. Temple -- Kent catches Temple in a lookahead spot here against Ohio.

Fadable Game: We'll fade Kent against Western Michigan.

[SoonerBS]

Buffalo

Last season it looked like Turner Gill was going to have another great season after going 8-6 the year before and returning a lot of starters and experience off that squad. But, injuries and performances that were way under par, left the Bulls with a 5-7 season. Now, Gill is gone and so is most of the skill players from their 2008 season. The Bulls have two bright spots coming into this season -- an experienced defense and a decent offensive line. However, the negatives far outweigh the positives for this team this season as they have to replace their skill players and they have a new head coach who brings with him new schemes for the players to learn. There are too many questions with this team for me to be confident playing on them in any spots this year. I'll pass.

[SoonerBS]

Bowling Green

New HC, Clawson, did a great, and really unexpected, good job last season of bringing this team through to a 7-6 record. But, he also had some experienced players with a little talent left over as well. This season, everything is different. If he has another winning season, it will be because he has done a job that should get him Coach of the Year in the NCAA. In other words, it isn't going to happen. BG only brings back 4 starters on each side of the ball and 41 lettermen. The experience is just not there for them to be even half as good as last season. I'll pass all the way around on Bowling Green, too.

[SoonerBS]

Miami, OH

This team intrigues me a bit. You might think, "why is that, they went 1-11 last year?!" I know that's true. However, this was a team that had a first year head coach and they were learning new schemes. They didn't improve on defense or offense. BUT, here is what intrigues me -- Miami played their best games last year against the strongest competition. It wasn't so much a lack of skill or ability that kept Miami from winning more games, whenever you research the games from last year it can all be faulted on one thing -- turnovers. They had a -24 turnover margin last season. I have read the recaps on all the games they played last year and the turnovers played key roles in them losing the games. This year, they are in the second year of the schemes, they bring back a whopping 19 starters and 51 lettermen and I think they could be an ATS sweetheart to us if they can just hold on to the ball. I am going to be keeping a close eye on the spreads in the games Miami plays this season, so I may be playing on them a lot more than the two games I have listed below.

September 18th vs. Colorado State -- It's kind of a rare thing whenever a MAC team gets a non-conference game at home, but Miami gets one here. CSU plays at Nevada the week before this game and has Idaho on deck. I look for Miami to be home dogs here and I actually think they can pull off a win even though the MWC is far stronger than the MAC. CSU is in a bit of a rebuilding mold this season and this is a good spot for Miami to take advantage of them. Also, after watching them for two games, we should have a better feel as to whether Miami is going to hold onto the ball this year or not.

November 23 vs. Temple -- Temple is the better team here and should have a very good season, but for ATS sake, we have a team playing on the road and will likely be looking ahead to the MAC Championship game. This will be like Miami's Bowl game as they have an opportunity to bump off one of the MAC's best this season. I'll be on the home doggie.

[SoonerBS]

Akron

Here is a team that went 3-9 SU and 3-8 ATS last season and their HC was fired after 5 losing seasons out of 6. Whenever I note this fact, I automatically think, "They will be largely ignored by Vegas and gamblers alike, so if they can be a little better than last year, there may be money-making opportunity here." So, will they be better? Well, from what I have read, they made an "upgrade" on their coaching staff. Rob Ianello has coached at Alabama, Wisconsin, Arizona and, most recently, Notre Dame. He obviously will not be working with the same talent as he did at those schools, but he will have the experience. He has also amassed a very good assistant staff as well. The players are going to have to learn some new schemes, but looking at their offensive and defensive performance from last season, it cannot be a bad thing to learn something new. Akron brings back 13 starters from last season, but the 54 lettermen tells us that this is an experienced team. I don't think we can go hog wild betting them every game, but I do think there are some spots.

September 18th at Kentucky -- Kentucky, who will be in a bit of a rebuilding year with their own 1st year coach, will have their "whip up on the stepchild" game the week before this one as they play Western Kentucky. Then, they will have an away game at Florida on deck. I think this is a definite "lookahead" spot for Kentucky and I don't see them being very interested here at all. Akron should catch a lot of points and have plenty of room to cover.

October 2nd vs. Northern Illinois -- With Northern Illinois being one of the top teams in the MAC this season, they are now the team with a bullseye on their backs. The week before this game, NIU plays at Minnesota. The week following this game, NIU plays a big game against Temple at home. I can't see them overly interested here as Temple is far bigger game.

October 23rd vs. Western Michigan -- Once again, being chosen as a contender in MAC conference, WMU has a bullseye on their backs. Akron has to play every week with the hopes of eeking out a win here or there. They cannot afford to have "layover" or "lookahead" to a next game. So, while they have Ohio the previous week and temple on deck, they have to play one game at a time. WMU has Notre Dame the week before and Northern Illinois the week following Akron. It doesn't get any bigger for them and it will be easy to mentally "take this game off" and just hope to get a win.

[SoonerBS]

Western Michigan

Again, whenever we look at this team, we see a situation similar to Akron's -- coming off a 5-7 SU season and a 3-8 ATS. IF this team can improve a little, they could fly under the radar . . . . . . well, as much as any team could fly under the radar after being picked by Phil Steele to contend for the MAC title. Why would he be so excited about them after last season? The pieces to success are in place, all they need is success. Last year they didn't get that success and HC, Cubit, blamed the defensive side and fired all his defensive coaches. He believes with better motivation defensively, the teams will be much improved with the offensive side looking solid. Of course, there is also a question as to how well new QB, Alex Carder will perform, too. Hiller was one of the best QBs WMU ever had, but Carder is more athletic and has the skills to turn it on immediately for this WMU team. This has to be a call from the gut, and last year my guts stunk. I'll play one game:

November 20th vs. Kent State -- Kent State has potential to be a very decent team this season as well, but they will be in the heart of their toughest phase of schedule whenever they play WMU. WMU, on the other hand, will be coasting by this game. I just don't think Kent State is going to have the juice to give a good enough effort to beat WMU this year. This will likely be a short line and WMU should cover it easily at home.

[SoonerBS]

Northern Illinois

There are some question marks about this team, but overall NIU stands to be solid once again this season. If you look at last season, Vegas had them overpriced. They won against good competition, but they did not win by much. The games they lost was also not by much. In other words, NIU was in every game mainly because of their defense, but their offense kept them from winning decisively in covering spreads. Whether that changes or not this season largely depends on who wins the QB job and how well he performs. HC, Jerry Kill spent his last couple of years recruiting some speed for offense and defense and now has some decent depth. I think that whoever wins the QB job will do a good job and that this team will be a little better on the offensive side while maintaining the staunch defense.

September 2nd at Iowa State -- I am a firm advocate of the fact that teams do NOT look ahead at games beyond their opener. However, I am making an exception here with this game. NIU has North Dakota on deck, and while you cannot look past FCS teams anymore, I still look for NIU to give Iowa State their undivided attention. ISU, on the other hand, has their rivalry game with Iowa on deck. I think NIU has the defense to hang with Iowa State and give them a good game whether the first time NIU QB does well or not. I don't think I will be interested in this game though if the line is under +8.

[Jrod124]

Iowa Sate is going to be tough for them I think

[SoonerBS]

Vanderbilt

Everyone was shocked by Johnson's retirement last week. No one saw it coming at all. We can set around and speculate about the "whys" of the abrupt retirement, but for we who are looking for wagers on this ball club, it would be a waste of time. How is the team going to react and can we expect any changes in performance? My thoughts are that the season will play out just as it would have if Johnson would have stayed on. I remember some times whenever there have been coaching changes before the season or halfway through it -- Hoeppner/Lynch at Indiana and Bowden/Swinney at Clemson to name a couple. By the time we get to the Fall, the schemes and plans for the season are already set into place. After this, it is simply a matter of managing the team through proper motivation and game decisions. The facts that mean more to us is that Vanderbilt struggled with offense last season and it really doesn't look a whole lot better for this season. The defense will be the same if not a little better and they actually had a good year last year. The trouble lies in the QB play and offensive line. Neither of these two units were good last year and it is questionable as to whether they will be so this season or not. For the sake of contemplation, let's assume Vanderbilt will improve a bit.

September 11th vs. LSU -- LSU has a very big game in their opener against North Carolina the week before this event. The NC game will set the tone for how the season will likely go for LSU. Win or lose, there is bound to be some layover here in this spot that Vanderbilt can take advantage of. Vandy will also have a tough home game in their opener against Northwestern and it would not surprise me to see them lose that one. A win against LSU is not out of the realm of possibility this season and it would help to redeem a possible opening loss.

November 6th vs. Florida -- Vandy won this game last year ATS by quite a lot and we have another good spot for them here and a bad spot for Florida. Florida is coming off the annual "Cocktail Party" against Georgia the week before and will have South Carolina on deck. This is a sandwich spot for them.

Fadable Game: Northwestern (As good as Vanderbilt's defense will be, they are going to be tested against Northwestern's offense. I expect this game to be close, but I also expect a short number with Northwestern winning by a TD.

[SoonerBS]

Washington

Everyone sees Washington returning 10 offensive starters, 8 defensive starters and 50 lettermen, and they are ready to make them conference champs and NC contenders. Yes, they have what is probably the best NFL QB prospect in the FBS. He has all his tools back to work with including Aguilar and Kearse. But, before we start getting all excited and crowning them National Champions, let's not forget that this team didn't even have a winning season last year going 5-7. In fact, they have not had a winning season in 7 years! This team is not going to the NC game and will likely not even win their conference title. BUT, they should be better this season without a doubt. I think the thing that really holds this team back is their defense. You can't allow 26.7 ppg and 390 total yards to your opponents and expect to contend in the PAC 10, let alone have a winning season. This definitely has to change for the Huskies. While I do not expect them to post eye-popping number changes on this side of the ball, they will be a lot more experienced this season and will have more depth than they ever have at all the positions. Locker is a really good player, but one man cannot win all the games for you. If Washington wants this season to be the "turnaround" season, everyone needs to step up, especially the defense.

September 18th vs. Nebraska -- Many of you already know that I believe Nebraska is getting over-hyped. Yes, Nebraska will be a defensive force again this season, but not as dominating as last year whenever they had Suh. Unlike last year, offensive lines can play the defensive line of Nebraska straight up instead of trying to double team, or sometimes even triple team Suh. Washington's defense will likely not be worked as hard as they are going to be against BYU in the opener. That is a key point here in this game because Washington will have one competitive game under their belts before Nebraska comes to town (and it will likely not be Syracuse), but Nebraska has a cake walk before this game. Want to know the extent of the Nebraska hype this year? Nebraska is already a -5 favorite traveling to Seattle for their first road game of the season to take on the best QB in the NCAA. I will likely be laying money on Washington here before the season even ever starts.

October 9th vs. Arizona St. -- This was a close game last year and one in which ASU barely won in the final seconds of the game. ASU was favored by -6 and narrowly covered the spread. We will likely see an exact turn in point spread where Washington will be favored by a TD. ASU takes a big step backwards this season as they encounter a rebuilding year and Washington should be able to take advantage of them in Seattle.

November 6th at Oregon -- Here is a rare road play that I almost missed. Oregon is in a serious sandwich spot here after playing USC the week before and having California on deck. Washington has Stanford the week before, but a bye-week following this game.

Fadable Game: USC (Last year, it was their loss to Washington than began USC's woeful season. I look for them to settle the score this year as payback is a bitch.)

[SoonerBS]

Stanford

You have to love what Jim Harbaugh has brought to Stanford. He has taken an academic university and turned into a football university in three years. Now, the bar has been set with his 8-5 season last year and expectations are high. They will be good again this season, but the schedule is a bit brutal. Still, with Harbaugh leading them, you look at the schedule and think to yourself, "They could win every one of these games." Even with Gerhart gone, I expect the offense to be as good as it was last year. Lucky is a good QB and I look for him to be even better this season with his added experience. Again, like with a lot of these PAC 10 teams, the defense needs to get better. If Stanford wants to start being favored in every game they play, they have to quit allowing 403 total yards offense from their opponents. The first half of their schedule is tough, but we can find a couple of games to play on in the second half of the schedule.

October 23rd vs. Washington St. -- I know that this sounds too easy, and we have to be careful as WSU should be just a tad better this year, but after a really tough first half of the season, Stanford comes off a bye-week to play WSU at home for homecoming. It should be an opportunity to truly dominate another team for what looks like only the second time this season. Lay the points here.

November 6th vs. Arizona -- Last year Stanford lost a close one to Arizona. This year they get them at home, possibly a home dog, and Arizona has USC on deck.