SoonerBS 2010 Play-On Games

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:16 PM

ARMY

I like the Military Schools, and even though Army has not been very special in many years, there is something about the hearts of these guys and the way they play week in and week out that I admire. Last season was Coach Rich Ellerson's first year at Army and he led them to their best record of 5-7 in at least the last 10 years. It was short of a bowl bid, but it was definite move in the right direction for a change. He brought in with him the "triple-option offense" that he learned from Coach Paul Johnson while coaching with him at Hawaii. I LOVE the triple-option offense and I think it is the best one that suits the military schools where they are not overloaded on talent and need to plug in several guys at a time into their offense. This year Army brings back an unheard of 16 returning starters -- 8 on offense and 8 on defense. The experience level will help a lot for a team running the TOO for the second year in a row. Another thing that helps is the fact that Ellerson doesn't try to schedule too many games that are beyond his player's ability to win. This should give them a real good chance to go to their first bowl game in forever this year.

September 11th vs. Hawaii -- I LOVE this spot! Hawaii is playing the USC Trojans in their season opener the week before this game (Thursday night game). You know that Bryant Moniz and the boys are going to be psyched to play against the Trojans and see what they can do on their home turf. Meanwhile, Army will go on the road for their opener against Eastern Washington, a team that shouldn't give them any trouble. The week following the Hawaii game, Army plays North Texas at home, while Hawaii goes on the road again to play Colorado. This game against Army is sandwiched between two high-profile games for Hawaii. This road trip to West Point, NY is also one of the longest road trips East that Hawaii has had to take in years. And if this game needed an extra enticement, Coach Ellerson will be coaching against his alma mater! Hawaii's rush defense is not the greatest, but their defense is very stingy. Mark this one down on your calendars, boys.

September 25th at Duke -- I know this is a road game, but Army should be catching points here and they have a legitimate chance to win it straight-up. Like the Hawaii game, this spot is a bad spot for Duke despite the fact that it is a home game for them. The previous week leading up to this game, Duke has to play a home game against Alabama. That is not going to be easy and they will likely get beat handily, but will probably put a lot of emotion in the game. The following week after the Army game, they go on the road for a conference game against Maryland. Even with 15 players coming back off last year's team, I think Duke is going to struggle this season because their stud starting QB, Lewis is gone, and the projected starter, Renfree, is coming off ACL surgery. Army played a horrible game in this match-up last year committing 4 turnovers resulting in 21 points for Duke. I like the spot for Army here.

Games that look enticing, but do not make the list: Tulane, Air Force and Notre Dame

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:16 PM

NAVY

Ken Niumatalolo is in his 3rd year as head coach of Navy after the departure of Paul Johnson. After an 8-5 and 10-4 season straight-up, I have to say he is the real deal and that navy has not skipped a beat since Johnson's departure. It is clearly evident that Niumatalolo was trained well by Johnson. Navy's military system loses several players every year, but all the ones that get plugged in to replace the veterans already know the triple-option scheme. Rarely does the Navy offense EVER struggle, but sometimes they do defensively. This year they bring back 8 on offense, including all the skill positions, but only 5 on defense. This team this year DOES have a weak spot and it is on the defensive line and at linebacker. Because of this, I will not opt to play any early games as I think it will take some struggling in the early games before the defense is seasoned enough to produce more consistently. Navy has one of the easiest schedules I have seen them play in years, so making it back to a bowl game is not going to be a problem.

November 6th at East Carolina -- there are two factors when capping Navy games that I like to look for when betting them -- road games and games they are dogs. They will not be dogs this game even if they are playing on the road, but they will win it easily and by a large margin. I don't know what East Carolina was thinking whenever they scheduled this game (except that maybe they thought Skip Holtz would still be around and that he would be game-planning this game and motivating the thin numbers of returning experience). East Carolina has a new coach, new schemes and only 8 returning starters. While this will be the tenth week and ECU should be showing signs of improvement by then, you still have this game sandwiched between two road conference games and there is no way that a green defense that should only now be showing signs of having a clue will now have to get ready for the triple-option offense in 6 days time. There is just no way. I look for Navy to massacre ECU in this game.

November 20th versus Arkansas St. -- Navy has a ridiculously easy stretch after the Notre Dame game October 23rd before they play their finale against Army on December 11th. They Play Duke, at East Carolina, Central Michigan (who will likely be a pushover this year as they have lost everyone including their coach) and Arkansas St before two bye weeks and the Army game. This will be the first meeting against Arkansas St and it is sandwiched between two conference games for Arkansas St. That means that they are going to have to work on defending the the TOO in a week's time -- something they have never had to do ever. ASU is completely replacing their skill players this season and there are plenty of holes in the defense to attend to as well. ASU should be better this late in the season, but they are NOT going to be ready for this game. Navy roles big.

Games that look enticing, but do not make the list: Maryland (very enticing) and Central Michigan.

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:17 PM

Southern Methodist

How can you NOT like June Jones? We all know what he did at Hawaii, but have you noticed what he did in his first two seasons with SMU? He went a predictable 1-11 the first year as he did some "house-cleaning" and implemented his new schemes, and then last year he went an unbelievable 8-5!! This year's team will be in the 3rd year of the new system and they lose only 13 lettermen, so there is some obvious experience here. Obviously, the weak spot for SMU is NOT their offense, but their defense. Still, their defense goes for big plays in hopes of disrupting the concentration of opposing offenses and keeping them off-balance. Then, they try and outscore the opposition. As mentioned, it worked 8 out of their 13 games last season.

September 5th at Texas Tech -- This game intrigues me. Tech has dominated this series by beating SMU 13 times in a row. Also, they usually beat SMU by a wide margin in this series. But, things have changed for this year's match-up. Leach is no longer at Tech and June Jones IS at SMU. I think Tuberville is going to be happy to just get a win in this game as he has the task of completely changing the offensive and defensive schemes of this Tech team. Last year, Tech had a phenomenal amount of QB sacks from their defense. This year, they go to a 3-4 scheme and will likely not duplicate that kind of success. That means there will be a lot more pressure on the defensive backfield of Tech, and that is going to play HUGE in this opener against the "run and shoot." I'm interested to hear others' thoughts here, but shouldn't SMU be getting +14 points here? Even in the games SMU lost last year, they were still able to keep them close. I don't know if SMU could pull off the outright upset here, but I really have a feeling this game will be close. I think the points is where you want to be in this game.

September 11th vs. UAB -- I like UAB this season and their potential looks good despite the loss of their stud QB, Joe Webb. I actually think that his replacement, Isabelle, has great potential and he has a little experience to go with it, BUT this will be his first road start of the season. Also, despite a pretty decent defense that should be better this season for a CUSA team, UAB's one glaring weakness is their pass defense. Combine a weak pass defense with a QB making his first road start and it looks like a good play-on spot for SMU.

September 18th vs. Washington State -- The Mustangs lost this game in OT at Washington St last year, but the game came early in the season and the Mustangs were still getting settled into their schemes. This year the game is being played at Dallas and SMU will likely be favored by as much as -13 points. I think with WSU having USC on deck, and yet still having roughly the same team as last year, the improvement in SMU should win this game going away. SMU has a big game against TCU the next week as well, but the OT loss of a year ago against WSU should hold their focus squarely on this game. Mustangs win a runaway.

Games that look enticing, but do not make the list: Tulsa and Houston will both be played at home and have good potential for SMU outright wins.

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:17 PM

Hawai'i

Here's another team that I enjoy watching because of their "off the wall" style of offense. Under Jones, Hawai'i became a household name in college football. I think it is safe to say that current coach, Greg McMackin, is no June Jones. In his defense though, Jones left the cupboard bare whenever he left Hawai'i to take the SMU job. McMackin has done fairly well with what he has had to work with, but his 7-7 and 6-7 records have come against some very weak competition, too. This year's Hawaii squad should be better than last year's, but their schedule is tougher as well with an opener against the mighty Trojans. The QB position looks to have some competition going on for starting job with incumbent, Moniz, taking on Shane Austin. WR, Greg Salas is back and is a superstar that needs to stay healthy. Defensively, Hawaii has 7 starters returning and plenty of experience at every position. I think the defense's main problem is just getting motivated to play. A case in point was their win against Navy last season. They hadn't showed that they could stop the run all season and all of a sudden that is exactly what they did against Navy. Again, that may be a coaching weakness. Their offensive line has to replace 4 starters, but their OL coach has stated that he has 12 OL starters he can play. All I know is that these OL guys are HUGE!

October 2nd vs. Louisiana Tech -- Last year's game was just a horrid performance by Hawaii as they allowed 7 sacks, 3 TOs and 352 yards rushing by LT. This was also the game where Hawaii lost their #1 QB starter, Alexander. This year's game will be the 5th game of the season and the first conference game for Hawaii. They play this one at home and their improved team should prove to be too much for La Tech to tame this season. This game has to be statement game by Hawaii to send to the rest of the conference.

October 30th vs. Idaho -- Idaho had a "Cinderella Story" year last year, but I think they get back to reality this year with 7 of their offensive starters from last season now gone. This is Hawaii's homecoming game and they cannot afford to be looking ahead to Boise on deck.

November 20th vs. San Jose St -- SJST always plays Hawaii tough at home, but the scene shifts to Honolulu this year and SJS is just dog awful this year with a new coach, new schemes, 25 lettermen lost and many of the remaining players being moved to new positions. The game comes on a good spot for Hawaii as it follows a bye week and two weeks removed from the Boise game with New Mexico St on deck. Hawaii finished out their season strong last year and if they do it again, this game will be in the middle of blowout time.

Game that looks VERY enticing: Colorado -- I think Hawaii will be staying in the states after the Army game the previous week and Colorado goes from the extreme of playing California one week to getting ready for the "run and shoot" the next. This one will depend on the line.

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:18 PM

UAB

Whenever Watson Brown left UAB 4 years ago, I knew it was going to be tough for UAB to be competitive again soon. Their record since Neil Callaway took over has been 11-25 SU in 3 seasons. However, they have been showing improvement by adding a win to each season so far. Last year the season was all about the career of their stud QB, Joe Webb. He is gone and will be replaced by David Isabella who had some experience last year and shows promise. While they will not have Webb, they do return their most seasoned team since Callaway took over the HC position with 16 starters and 54 lettermen returning. I like the potential for some good ATS money from UAB this year as I think they will do better than some give them credit. They absolutely are flying under the radar here.

September 4th vs. FAU -- How about an opener here? I'm willing to bet on Isabella in his home opener, but I will fade him the next week whenever he goes on the road for his first road start against SMU. FAU had only a mediocre season last year going 5-7. Defensively, FAU brings back only 11 starters from last season and will have to replace every starter on the offensive line. UAB's defensive line is pretty solid for a CUSA team and should give FAU some fits.

September 18th vs. Troy -- I guess I'm picking on the Sunbelt conference here, but I think the Sunbelt conference will be down this year even more than they have been. One of their perennial top contenders here, Troy, will be in a rebuilding year as they bring back only 9 starters including a new QB. Troy beat UAB last year by 13 points, but I am calling for a SU win for UAB in this game as they take a step forward and Troy takes a step back.

September 25th at Tennessee -- Why on the road against an SEC team? Look at the spot -- Tennessee, who I think we'd all agree will be down this year, plays this game between Florida the previous week and LSU on deck. Can they possibly be interested in UAB here?

October 23rd at Mississippi St -- OK, let's do it again, play on UAB against an SEC team that will be pretty decent in the Bulldogs. Why play on them here? They are coming off the Florida game the week before and have Kentucky (a winnable SEC game) on deck.

Games that looks enticing: East Carolina and Memphis

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:18 PM

Virginia Tech

I'm thinking that Virginia Tech could possibly fly under the radar for a short time this season to give us some nice money. Most people are going to give V Tech a pass because they lost so many starters on the defensive side of the ball, but V Tech is usually a team that "reloads" on defense instead of rebuilds. They definitely have some talent to fill the holes, so it is probably just a matter of how long it will take them to gel and figure things out. Offensively, V Tech may have their best offense in years. I love betting on good running teams and V Tech should have one of the best in the ACC this season. Not only do they have ane experienced dual QB, but they have one of the best RB tandems in Williams and Evans. If Boise beats V Tech in the opener, I think we score some good cash in the next several games with V Tech.

September 18th vs. East Carolina -- this game has annually been close between these two teams, but I think this season's game could be a V Tech blowout. East Carolina's losses have been hugely greater than V Tech's over the past year in personnel and as a result, East Carolina does not have anything to take advantage of V Tech's losses on defense. This will also be the new QB for ECU, Davis' first road start. V Tech's offense should control the tempo of the whole game and ECU will not stand a chance.

October 9th vs. Central Michigan -- this will be the first meeting between these two teams and V Tech catches CMU on a big down year. Not only did CMU lose some key personnel which included their stud QB and their HC, but they will also be going through changes to both offensive and defensive schemes. This game comes in the midst of V Tech's "cushy" schedule and they can focus all their attention on giving CMU a thrashing.

November 27th vs. Virginia -- After closing the season with the toughest part of their schedule: G Tech, North Carolina and Miami, Virginia tech gets to have Senior Day at home against their in-state rival, Virginia. Virginia will not only be in a rebuilding year this season, but they will also be going through new Offensive and defensive schemes. V Tech should be able to end their season with a bang in this one.

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:18 PM

Michigan State

Coach Dantonio is in his 4th season as the head coach of the Spartans, but last year was his first year for a rare feat that he would as soon forget -- a 6-7 losing season. In his defense, last season was a bit of a rebuilding year especially at QB. He had a battle going on between Cousins and Nichol that played out throughout the year with Cousins finally winning and securing the job. Nichols has been moved to the role as starting WR and should do well there. This year they bring back some experience on both sides of the ball and look to have a better season. Their schedule is not nearly as tough this year as they only have Michigan, Iowa and Penn State on the road, and with the exception of Michigan, I think Iowa and Penn State will be down this year. Be careful underselling this squad this year as although they have only 13 starters returning, it is a bit misleading because the players that will be starting all had extensive experience last year. So, this team will be better this year and could fly under the radar for the first few games.

September 4th vs. Western Michigan -- Yes, Phil Steele has WMU up as one of the MAC leaders this season, but they do not bring back as much talent and experience as MSU AND, well, let's face it, they play in the MAC and MSU is in the Big Ten. Last season, MSU was favored by 20 and won by 25. I don't see any different results this year, especially getting them at home, and, oh, by the way, did I mention that WMU will be starting a brand spanking new QB? This will be his first road trip and it will not be a nice welcoming committee. This is one of my favorite opening game plays.

October 16th vs. Illinois -- I know this game follows the Michigan game, but it is the MSU homecoming and look what Illinois comes in after: two weeks prior to this one they play at home against Ohio State, then they go on the road to play Penn State, then they have to go on the road again to play MSU in this game. Illinois will likely be everyone's "whipping boy" in the conference this year as it doesn't look like they will be much improved over last season.

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:19 PM

Michigan

I really liked Michigan to do well last year ATS, but it looks like I might have been a year early on that prediction. Regardless, I'll have my money on them again this year. This will be third year of the "Rodriguez Experiment" at Michigan and I am predicting that the Michigan naysayers will forget all about how they don't like Rodriguez after he takes them bowling at the end of the season. I think Michigan should have at least 8 wins this season and could have as many as 10. The players have had 2 years to get use to the new schemes and RR has his recruits in key spots for these schemes. Obviously, bringing back 15 starters and 53 returning lettermen would be something that any coach could appreciate, but if you get the chance, take a look at all the high number of PS talent Steele has listed at every position! There is a great deal of talent here on this team and this is the year RR takes advantage of it.

September 4th vs. UCONN -- This will be the first meeting between these two teams, and even though UCONN brings back talent and experience from last season as well, they come in here as a high ATS winner from last season and I think Vegas will take notice. The line SHOULD be in Michigan's favor with a low number and I think the "first time" venue to the Big House will be too much for UCONN.

September 25th vs. Bowling Green -- Bowling Green has less than nothing this year with only 8 starters returning. I know they surprised us all last year, but they will not surprise anyone on this game as Michigan will be way too much for them to handle. This game comes easy to Michigan between a game with Massachusetts and Indiana. Should be nothing but a Michigan scorefest all day long.

October 16th vs. Iowa -- Again, Iowa was an ATS giant last year and I expect Vegas to keep closer tabs on them this year. Michigan showed that they could compete with Iowa last season losing to the much better team by only 2 points. This year, with Michigan improved and the game being played in the Big House, we are likely looking at a possible upset.

Games that interest me: Penn State, Illinois and Ohio St.

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:19 PM

West Virginia

Let me just say from the onset that I do NOT like Bill Stewart as a head coach, but he has had two 9-4 seasons despite his ineptness as a head coach. Part of the reason is because of Rich Rodriguez's talented recruiting already set into place though, so I'm not ready to pass any credit onto Stewart yet. That being said, with the exception of Geno Smith, the likely starting QB for the Mountaineers this season, Stewart will still be playing with RR's recruits, so it should be another good year.

September 25th at LSU -- Here's another road play for me. This game is still in the non-conference schedule for WVU and follows what should be an easy win against Maryland at home. But, LSU is in the midst of conference games by this time playing what should be a tough game against Mississippi St the week before and will have Tennessee and Florida on deck. LSU loses several starters off last year's squad, and, let's face it, Les Miles has run out of Nick Saban's recruits to play and has not fared as well with his own. This is a first meeting, but with an off-week following this game, I have to think WVU should be more focused and we get to take points in this one.

November 13th vs. Cincinnati -- WVU lost to Cincy last year and I think with Cincy's circumstances, this is a great year to regain their dominance over Cincy. They will have full focus on this game coming off a bye-week the week before and having nothing but Louisville to follow.

Game to be warned about: On October 9th the Mountaineers will play the UNLV Runnin' Rebels. UNLV has had an uncanny knack of keeping games close against better opponents. Even though WVU has a bye-week before this game, most of it may be focused on USF the week following this game.

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:20 PM

South Florida

Here's an interesting team by the numbers: 10 starters returning on offense, 5 returning starters on defense, but 59 returning lettermen overall. In one word, this team is "experienced." I liked Leavitt as a motivator, but his game-planning was obviously questionable. Enter Skip Holtz. Holtz has already proven himself. And, before anyone should say, "yeah, but that was in the CUSA," let's not forget that he owns wins against West Virginia, Virginia Tech and North Carolina as the head coach of ECU in the last 3 years. He is a GOOD head coach and I think he will do more with USF's talent than what Leavitt could have done. He'll have his chance first with USF's very talented QB, BJ Daniels. Now, notice I said, "very talented," not SMART. He made some really lame-ass choices last season in his game decisions and Holtz has to get that ironed out. But, if he does, the offense will be incredibly hard to stop! I think USF will be tough this season.

November 3rd vs. Rutgers -- Last year, Rutgers embarrassed the Bulls by beating them 31-0 in a game the Bulls were favored by 2 points. This year, the Bulls do not lose much, but Rutgers drops quite a lot. USF gets a bye-week the week before this game and this game will be played on national TV on a Wednesday night. It's all USF in this one.

Games to watch line for: Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic and Syracuse. USF should annihilate all three of these teams, but the lines may be outlandish.

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:21 PM

Houston

Houston looks to have another good team loaded with talent and coached by an up and coming good HC in Kevin Sumlin. The offense will be lead again by QB, Case Keenum who will be a senior this season. The defense looks to be "so-so" again which describes most of the teams in the CUSA. Houston has a good enough team to win every game they play in this season, but they will not because they are susceptible to the occasional brain fart. They are usually a better team to "fade" in spots than they are to find play on games. Last season they pulled off a great win against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in B2B games then turned around and lost by 17 to UTEP who sucked ass. After beating Tulsa in a close game, they lost to UCF the very next game. So, we'll look to probably fade them after some big games this season.

September 10 vs. UTEP -- after losing to UTEP last season, the Cougars were embarrassed. The loss cost them ranking as they went from #12 in the nation to not being ranked at all. This game will be at Houston and will be spotlighted as a Friday Night Lights game. With a "lite" start against Texas St as an opener, Houston should be ready to unload on UTEP here in this one and I don't think UTEP can do anything to stop it.

November 5th vs. UCF -- Houston's second opportunity of the season to avenge an embarrassing loss in front of a Friday Night audience. I like playing on home teams on ESPN games and these just happen to be good spots as well.

Fadable Houston Games: Tulane (Tulane is terrible, but they have a bye-week prior to this one and Houston is coming off a big game against BCS conference UCLA. This is the kind of spot that Houston likes to overlook.) Rice (Rice should be a little better than Tulane and this game is scheduled to be their homecoming. This game follows Houston's big game against SEC foe, Mississippi St.)

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:21 PM

Arkansas

If you like high-octane offenses, then you have to like Arkansas . . . . and, I do. Here's what we get with Arkansas this year: A team that should be better than their 8-5 season of last year with 17 starters coming back and a whopping 59 returning lettermen, this will be the third year for coaching guru, Bobby Petrino, to be with this team, the defense should be stronger by virtue of experience and future NFL draft pick, Ryan Mallet, has come back for another year at QB. Arkansas DID have a 7-4-1 ATS season, so we'll have to watch and pick our spots closely, BUT their will be opportunities to make some money on this team. There are very few negatives about this team this season as even the lacking passing defense of last season should be better this year.

September 25th vs. Alabama -- Nothing like starting with the Bama game as a key play on game of the season, but, why not? Yes, Arkansas will be coming off a road game with Georgia the week before this one, but they have a bye-week the week following this game. For Alabama, who beat Arkansas by 28 last season and held this offense to only 7 points, they have road game with lowly Duke the week before, but they have a HUGE home game with Florida the week after this one. The "lookahead" potential is off the charts for this spot and favors Arkansas. And, even though I believe Bama will still be competing for an SEC title this season, they do have to replace 9 starters on defense this year. In all likelyhood, Arkansas should be a very juicy home-doggy here . . . . . . YUM!!

October 23rd vs. Mississippi -- Last season Arkansas got beat by Mississippi 17-30. However, that was a much more experienced and talented Ole Miss team than what they will see this year. Ole Miss brings back only 10 starters from last year and loses the most lettermen in the SEC. Also gone is their starting QB, Jevan Snead. This game is sandwiched within their toughest stretch of games on the schedule with at Alabama, at Arkansas and at home with Auburn. Hard to stay focused with all three and Arkansas should regain some satisfaction from last year's loss.

Other game that wets my whistle: Texas A&M (Not mu ch has changed for same outcome this year between these two teams).

Possible fade: November 13th vs. UTEP -- Arkansas plays South Carolina the week before and Miss St the week after this one. Neither South Carolina or MSU have similar offensive styles to UTEP, so the possible "letdown" is in effect here. Only thing that didn't make this a sure thing is that it falls between SMU game and Tulsa on UTEP's schedule.

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:22 PM

Baylor

Robert Griffin is back at QB for the Bears this season, but Baylor is still Baylor. Will they be better? Yes, definitely, but Griffin will not sneak up on teams like he did two years ago whenever he was healthy. Even with only 12 starters returning, I expect Baylor to be as good or better than previous two years because Briles has recruited well. Still, Baylor will likely NEVER make the jump to be a big boy, so you can expect them to lose to the likely suspects.

September 11th vs. Buffalo -- Buffalo has a new HC and new schemes. On top of this, they have a new starting QB and this will be his first road trip of the season. Baylor should dominate this match-up.

November 13th vs. Texas A&M -- This game comes in a stretch for Texas A&M: Oklahoma, at Baylor, Nebraska and at Texas. Which games do you figure Texas A&M will be focused on out of these 4? I'm not convinced that Texas A&M is a rising star, and coming towards the end of the season here, I think Baylor should be playing their best ball.

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:22 PM

La Tech

Last season, La Tech had a disappointing 4-8 season, but for us gamblers, they had a very nice 7-4 season ATS. This season, they lose HC Dooley to Tennessee and move in HC Sonny Dykes from Arizona. Usually, going from a "run oriented" offense to a "spread" offense would take 3 years for a team to start showing solid production. However, with 13 returning starters, 42 lettermen, and maybe more importantly, two transferred high recruits from the University of Tennessee, this team may actually have a better record THIS season. If nothing else, I have spotted a trend that makes "play on" games easier to find for this team.

Play On Games -- In the last 10 years, La Tech is 16-11 ATS as home favorites and 11-4 as home dogs!! Last season alone they won every lined home game ATS. You do have at least one game where you might want to consider laying off as they get Navy at home and Navy is usually a very good ATS team on the road.

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:23 PM

Florida

It will be interesting to see how the effects of Tim Tebow finally being gone this season will have on gambling trends with this team. Are gamblers going to continue to bet on high lines with Florida, or will they think that with only 11 returning starters, Florida will not be as good? My thoughts on Florida is that they will not miss a beat this season. They will still be contending for an SEC title just as they have been doing the last several years since Meyer has taken over as head coach of this team. I realize they are starting a new QB this year, but this guy isn't chopped liver, he was ranked #4 in his recruiting class and was Tebow's back-up last season. To read the recruiting numbers of all the starters and back-ups on this team is just unbelievable! Even with only 5 starters returning on defense this season, Steele still has them listed as the best defense in the SEC. This team is still excellent at every position and they have great depth. If Urban Meyer doesn't do something to screw up the psyche of this team, I intend to see them in the SEC Title game at the end of the season.

September 11th vs. South Florida -- I was surprised to see that this is the first meeting between these two Florida teams. Florida doesn't have much breathing room with their schedule this season, but here is where they have it the most. This should be a contest for recruiting rights in the state of Florida. We all know that Florida has been winning those rights for the last 6 years at least and they would like to continue them. Meyer will beat up on South Florida if he can, so this is a definite play on game.

November 13th vs. South Carolina -- This is the only other part of their schedule where I see some "breathing room." South Carolina will be good this year, but not as good as Florida. Florida has won this game in this series 18 out of the last 19 games. I don't see that changing this year and Florida should have enough of a second wind by this time in the schedule to cover any spread this game will have.

Fadable Game: I just don't think the LSU game falls on a good spot for Florida even though it is a home game for them. After playing three conference games in a row, and the previous game to this week being at Alabama, I don't think there will be anything left in the tank. This is a possible upset game in the making. If they do happen to pull this one out both SU/ATS, I'll be looking to fade them against Mississippi St the next week.

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:23 PM

Nebraska

I miss the Callahan days when the Nebraska fans would come out in the offseason and talk about how "this" year was going to be the year the Cornhuskers were going to rise from the ashes like a phoenix. We would all fade them and make money. It was easy. It hasn't been that easy since Pelini took over. The last couple of seasons Nebraska has gone a respectable 7-6 and 9-5 ATS consecutively. Be that as it may, I give most of the credit to Ndamukong Suh and his ability to literally dominate other teams' offenses. He's gone this year, and while I think Nebraska will hammer out a respectable season, I have my doubts that it will be as good as last year's 10-4 SU. But, the Cornhusker fans are singing songs of dominance again, which means we might make money fading them again this year. Defensively, they will be good again, but nothing like they were with Suh. Offensively, they haven't been good since Solich was coaching this team, and I don't see that changing. They will dominate inferior teams, but they will struggle against good defenses.

September 4th and 11th vs. WKU and Idaho -- Under Pelini the last couple of seasons, Nebraska has done very well covering these easy non-conference match-ups. They have played 6 of these easy games, guys, and they have covered every one of them. I don't see that trend changing.

OK, let's fade them now: Oklahoma State (OSU doesn't have a lot of experience and talent showing up on the field and their offensive line situation is looks to be a disaster, BUT I think Gundy will at least have them playing competitively this year. The thing about this spot is that OSU will have them at home after the big Texas game the week before. They will likely be home-doggies and they should be fired up to play a Cornhusker team suffering from a Texas hangover). Washington (I actually think this game is fairly evenly matched -- Washington the better offense and Nebraska the better defense, Washington the weaker defense and Nebraska the weaker offense. However, Washington has the home field advantage and should be catching points.)

**SoonerBS** · 06-29-10, 11:24 PM

Georgia Tech

This was suppose to be the year that Coach Paul Johnson's system finally took anchor with the players and G Tech started showing some improvement. No one expected Johnson to be starting his third season and already have a 9-4 and 11-3 season under his belt. For us gamblers, he also has an 8-3 and 8-5 ATS season B2B. And, still, after all of this, G Tech is still not getting the respect they deserve. Last season they won the ACC Championship. This season, with 14 starters and 54 lettermen returning, Steele has them stuck in 4th place of the Coastal Division behind some of the usual suspects such as Miami and V Tech. Yes, they lost their leading rusher in Dwyer, but they bring back everybody else. Though Dwyer was a talented RB, he was still a product of the triple-option system. The Triple-option system turns out RBs like the spread system turns out QBs. All of the players this season coming back are experienced except for their starting RG. I think they will be even better this year because I look for them to improve defensively by adding new DC, Al Groh. Did anyone ever witness too many bad defensive teams at Virginia the last several years? If everyone thinks like Steele does on the Yellow Jackets, we could be smiling at the bank on this team.

September 11th at Kansas -- Here's another rare road play, but one I feel is warranted. Kansas has NO exposure experience to the triple-option. Being the second game of the season, I realize they will work on it some in the preseason, but they will not be able to duplicate it in practice. Add to this the fact that Kansas has a new HC at the helm (and taking over the position of the greatest football coach Kansas has ever had there), a new starting QB, and a defense that is still looking to be one of the weakest in the Big 12, and we have the makings of a nice ATS cover here.

October 9th vs. Virginia -- Last year G Tech won this game on the road by 25 points. I don't see where Virginia has improved any over the offseason to warrant a spread any less than this. They have replaced Groh with a HC that was coaching the Richmond Spiders the last several years. I think we have to allow time for adjustment. Groh had a way of surprising people by being better than what their personnel indicated at times. I don't see that kind of magic here, especially in the first year. G Tech coming off a game with Wake Forest (who will be down this year) and with Middle Tennessee St on deck should be able to give full attention to their homecoming game.

Fadable game: Miami, FL (G Tech's schedule sets up to give them full attention on their game against V Tech on November 4th. Then, they have to play Miami the week following. Even though they get this game at home, it will be tough to focus attention on V Tech for two weeks ((a bye week previous to V Tech)) and then shift attention to Miami the week after. Win or lose against V Tech, there is bound to be a layover.)

**SoonerBS** · 06-30-10, 01:39 PM

September 6th vs. Boise St -- I had to append this game onto the "play-on" games because I believe after looking at it some more that V Tech will win/cover this one easily. Boise wins games where they are the "David" playing the "Goliath" which gives them a motivational edge. BUT, in this game, the role is reversed -- Boise now becomes the Goliath by virtue of being ranked above V Tech likely and even possibly being favored (as of right now, they are favored in "Big Game" bets). Remember what V Tech did to Miami last season whenever they came to town and were ranked #9 and V Tech was ranked #11? V Tech were dogs of 2 points and ended up beating Miami by 24 points! I believe V Tech will beat Boise outright and end their BCS bowl hopes in the opening game.

**SoonerBS** · 07-01-10, 02:40 PM

North Carolina

Here's a team that returns 19 starters off an 8-5 team from last season and only had a 5-6 ATS season. What's not to like from a gambler's viewpoint? Well, nothing from a defensive standpoint where they only allowed 17 point per game, but their offensive performance was a bit to be desired averaging only a little less than 24 ppg. Still, you have to think the offense will get better, and if it doesn't, the defense may be one of the best in the country and hopefully can hold their opponents to low numbers. I do think that having only a good defense and an average offense makes it hard to win a lot of games against the spread though. You need a really good offense that can manufacture some points. Still, there are some spots to take North Carolina.

September 4th vs. LSU -- I think this is a rebuilding year for LSU, and being that this game is being played on a neutral field and NOT at Baton Rouge amongst all the drunken Cajuns, I think North Carolina wins this game by a TD or more outright. Right now, NC is a -3 favorite and I think they can top that easily as Lester the Molester has a hard time topping teams that outrank him.

September 18th vs. Georgia Tech -- The week before, G Tech goes to play a first ever game against Kansas. Then, they turn around to go on the road again to play this game. Last year, G Tech manhandled North Carolina in this game, but UNC had just came off a game with East Carolina. This year, UNC has a bye week the week before this game to prepare for the triple-option offense. I look for much better results.

Possible Fade Game: North Carolina State (I don't expect NCST to be real good this season, but teams will not be able to overlook them, either. I also expect them to be much better by the time this game rolls around on November 20th. After playing Florida State and Virginia Tech B2B in the two weeks leading up to this game, there is a possibility there will not be enough gas left in the tank for their instate rival. Also, BCS implications could be on the line for UNC by this time and you can bet that NCST would want to ruin that for them.)

**SoonerBS** · 07-01-10, 03:05 PM

Florida State

I don't think the Bobby Bowden era could have ended soon enough. The "typical" Bobby Bowden type team ended in 2003 and his teams have never packed the same power since then. Gone has been the years whenever halfway through the game and the "tomahawk music" was being played that opposing teams said to themselves, "oh, shit, we're screwed." The Florida State name just doesn't intimidate like it did in the 90's. That all being said, I think were getting ready to see a turnaround here in the next 3 years or so. I think, like many, that the unification and harmony among the coaching staff is going to be tons better now that Bowden is gone and Jimbo Fisher can finally run things as he sees fit. Offensively, FSU started turning it around last year and that should continue this season. Defensively, FSU was an embarrassment to their fabled tradition and there is still work that needs to be done on that side of the ball. Still, I think with all the coaches on the same page under one true leader, the defense should improve this year.

September 18th vs. BYU -- If BYU was looking for revenge this year in this game, they picked the wrong time and spot. FSU will likely be coming off a goof ass-whipping by Oklahoma the previous week and will be looking to whi somebody else's ass. They have a likely suspect, AGAIN, in BYU at home. BYU will be breaking in a brand spanking new QB and this will be only his second road start. Also, BYU's big bruising RB, Harvey Unga, will not be playing for BYU this season as he was kicked off the team. Couple these facts with only 5 returning defensive starters for BYU and all that trouble they had against FSU last season looks to repeat itself. Hopefully, all the talk about revenge will give us a good line.

Intriguing Possible Play: Florida (I expect FSU to be home dogs here and will likely give Florida their best game yet.)

**SoonerBS** · 07-01-10, 03:40 PM

Boston College

BC is one of those teams that I look at every year and think to myself, "these guys are going to have a hard time producing a winning season this year." And, every year, it seems, they not only win, but they do better than expected. This year, I look at this team and I think, "this team will not only have a winning season, but they could possibly sneak up on some people and surprise them." Other than their linebacking corps, they don't have any players that really shine or stand out, but they are all solid players and have experience. Their schedule REALLY stacks up favorable for them with only one game that looks really tough on the road against Florida State.

October 2nd vs. Notre Dame -- Last season, BC won this game ATS, but lost it straight up by 4 points. This season, they will be favored and will likely win it going away. This game comes between two home games for ND against Stanford and Pittsburgh. ND hardly has an easy schedule, but this is in the middle of the roughest part of this season's schedule. BC will likely be coming off a tough loss against V Tech the week before, but win or lose it, I expect them to want to win this game impressively if they can.

November 20th vs. Virginia -- Not only does this game come in the softest part of BC's schedule, it finds Virginia in a lookahead spot against V Tech the next week during "rivals week." BC can name their score in this game.

Possible Fade Game: Kent State (Last year the line was set on -21 for this game and BC covered it easily. This year, it will likely be -24 or more and I think Kent State will slip into an ATS win here. Kent will improve this year and BC cannot afford to show much against them with V Tech coming up in a couple weeks.)

**SoonerBS** · 07-01-10, 04:12 PM

Nevada

If you like offense, you can't help but like Nevada. The Wolf Pack have averaged over 500 yards per game and 38 points per game the last two years. This year, they do not look to skip a beat! Kaepernick and the boys will likely get at least 9 wins this season, and with a little luck, might even break into DD wins.

September 11th vs. Colorado State -- Last year, Nevada lost at CSU by 15 points after outgaining them and outplaying them in almost every category. What was the difference? Nevada lost 5 turnovers in the game. This season, CSU brings back only 4 offensive starters, so I don't look for Nevada's already weak defense to be challenged much this game. Also, it is likely that CSU will be starting a true freshman at QB and this will be his first road start. I look for Nevada to put together some blitz packages to test the kid's meddle. In the end though, Nevada's offense will just be way too much for CSU to handle on the road and Nevada could score 50 on them.

October 9th vs. San Jose St -- This one is so obvious, one might question whether Vegas would possibly allow us a free pass or not. However, what is Vegas going to do, set the line at -49? Hell, no. Give the points, take Nevada, and laugh all the way to the bank.

Fadable Games: Hawaii (this game follows what will be a total blowout against San Jose, but it's a little tougher playing Hawaii at Hawaii). New Mexico State (last year Nevada obliterated New Mexico St, so why would we possibly want to give them a look here? Look where this game falls for Nevada -- between Fresno State and Boise State. The line will be very high and with NMSU improving a bit this year, the points look tempting.)

**Kustac** · 07-01-10, 10:58 PM

interesting points, interesting idea, how's this worked out for you in the past looking this far ahead?

**SoonerBS** · 07-02-10, 01:56 PM

Last season was terrible, but last season was kind of an unusual year and I didn't see too many handicappers really killing it.

Seasons before last went very well.

This is a great way for me to get prepared on the upcoming season by researching teams.

**The G-Man Wins** · 07-03-10, 06:08 PM

SoonerBS.

Havent seen you for a while at my usual spot. I just signed on here.

I see youre still using that Avatar.

GL this season.

G-Man

**SoonerBS** · 07-03-10, 10:22 PM

You too, G-Man, nice to see you're still following the pigskin.

I have my own place I hang out at once the season starts, but I started posting some preseason thoughts over here for the last couple of years while Pags11 was here.

**iwantcougars** · 07-03-10, 11:27 PM

nice job

**SoonerBS** · 07-04-10, 08:43 PM

Oklahoma State

Last season, Oklahoma State came into the year with really high expectations. Then Dez Bryant gets suspended by NCAA and Robinson has to deal with nagging injuries for the whole season. On top of that, Gundy had committed to building the offense around Robinson, and whenever injuries started plaguing him, the offense went stagnant. RB, Hunter never seemed to get going and gained only 400 yards on the season. This season he should have a better season if he remains healthy, but they will have a new starting QB and only 4 returning starters on offense and 4 returning starters on defense. On top of this, Gundy is playing games with the media again and will not commit to telling anyone the truth about what the offense will be. Everyone assumes it will have to be more "run based" with Hunter being the emphasis, but Gundy hired Dana Holgorsen as his new OC and he use to coach at TTech and Houston. So, it will almost HAVE to be the true spread offense that will be run, which means a change in scheme. Without a doubt, this will be a rebuilding year for Oklahoma State and they will struggle to eek out a winning season.

October 23rd vs. Nebraska -- Nebraska will have a way better team than Oklahoma State this season, but by this game, Oklahoma State should be getting way better lines and they should be showing a slow bit of improvement. This is a bad spot for Nebraska as it is a road game that is sandwiched between two home games -- Texas the previous week and Missouri the following. Oklahoma State has this game penciled in as their homecoming game.

November 6th vs. Baylor -- I don't think Oklahoma State is going to win a lot of games this season, so even though they have Texas on deck here, they can't afford to look ahead and past Baylor at home. Baylor will be a much better team than they were last year, but this may be one of Oklahoma State's best opportunities to win a game, and they just might possibly be short dogs here.

Fade the Cowboys: Oklahoma State will likely be favored in their first three games, but I may be looking to fade them in every game. I really think Oklahoma State is going to struggle offensively this season and I have never been impressed with them defensively. Last season was about the best defensive season they have had in a long time (at least 7 years), but they were only good against less than stellar offenses. This season, with them bringing back only 4 starters, and with one of the weakest looking defensive backfields in the conference, I think their defensive production will definitely drop. Washington State looks to be better this season almost by default as most of their players were injured last season, but will be back and healthy this year. Troy's losses are not as bad as what they look on paper as their starting QB, although he did not start last year, has started several games two seasons ago and is very talented. Tulsa is going to test Oklahoma State's defense as they look to improve this season as well. So, if I'm getting points in each of those games, and I think I will be, I want the points.

**SoonerBS** · 07-04-10, 09:43 PM

Oregon State

Oregon State has not only been successful SU since Riley took over as head coach, but they have been ATS sweethearts as well winning money 5 out of the last 7 years. Oregon brings back 15 starters from last season and a very impressive 58 lettermen, so this is an experienced team. However, with all the experience they will have, the one area where they will be lacking is one of the most important -- at QB. I think Oregon State is going to be solid at every position, but the QB position is a huge "?" for this team. IF either Katz or Lalich can come through and produce for this team without a lot of mistakes, Oregon State can contend for the PAC 10 title. If not, it will still likely be a winning season, but one that would fall short of potential. Really, with the offensive line and RB, JacQuizz Rodgers being amonst one of the best RB/OL units in the nation, if the QB can just contribute some offense through the air every once in a while, OSU could be very successful. Still, we all know how important it is to have an experienced starting QB, so we'll sit and wait this out.

November 20th vs. USC -- We all know how good Oregon State plays the Trojans at Corvallis. This game happens to be sandwiched between a game at Arizona and a home game against Notre Dame for the Trojans. I also expect whoever QBs for Oregon State to be much improved and showing some confidence by this game. Great spot once again.

Possible Fade Game: The opener against TCU. This one will be played at Arlington and it will be the first road start for whoever gets the job as QB for OSU.

**clonecat** · 07-05-10, 02:26 PM

Lot of homework done already should lend itself to a profitable year. Good read throughout. Looking forward to you adding more.

**pinnacle212** · 07-05-10, 03:39 PM

Great write up Sooner. Hope you do well this season. I will be watching.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 07-05-10, 03:56 PM

Love this stuff. Keep it up.

**SoonerBS** · 07-06-10, 06:12 PM

Thanks, guys . . . . .

**SoonerBS** · 07-06-10, 06:12 PM

Texas Christian

TCU has not only been impressive on the field, but with 2 straight seasons of going 8-4 ATS, they have been impressive off the field as well. This has been one of the most consistent programs in the NCAA for the last 8 years as they have had only 1 sub .500 season. This year will be no different as the schedule is good and the team brings back 16 returning starters and 54 lettermen. QB, Andy Dalton comes back for his senior year this year and gives the Horned Frogs great leadership. TCU has averaged over 33 ppg the last two seasons and Andy Dalton has been a big reason for it stacking up big yardage through the air. But, as impressive as the offense has been, the defense has been the reason TCU has dominated games. They have allowed no greater than 18 ppg for the last 5 seasons. This is largely due to great coaching and HC Gary Patterson is one of the best HCs in the nation. This all equates to TCU having another shot at making it into a BCS bowl this season, and more importantly, this team winning us some more money!

September 4th vs. Oregon State -- I'm liable to get some contention from the Oregon State or PAC 10 fans on this one, BUT I really think that TCU will win this one and cover by 10 or more points. I know the early "Big Game" lines are set at -10 right now, but I think this is going to go down closer to a TD before game time (actual power rankings only have OSU and TCU at a 5 point difference on a neutral field). Here are my reasons for taking TCU here -- the game location is obviously closer to TCU's fans, Oregon State's starting QB will making his first road start and TCU's defense can and will shut down OSU's running game. If for some reason this line goes over -10, I'll lay off.

November 27th vs. New Mexico -- I know, it's New Mexico and this play looks way too easy, BUT there is a bye week the week before this game and this will be the last game of the season, meaning, "Senior Week." I think Patterson allows TCU to name their own score in this one as Dalton likely plays the whole game.

Possible Fade: UNLV (TCU comes off a game against AF the week before and has a game on the road against Utah the next week for what will likely be the conference title. UNLV has a bye-week the week before this game).