I love overreactions

[rjt721]

I'm tired of talking about this game, bitch at me about one of the games on which I'm taking a strong stance.

Sure. Fvck Illinois.

Seriously, though, I understand the play, and I was very surprised to see UM favored. I think Illinois' the right side and I wouldn't consider backing UM here. The only reason I can't back the Illini is I think Juice (or McGee) is going to have to make some plays through the air at some point, and this being Illinois' biggest game in several years, I wouldn't have much confidence in Juice making good decisions in a tight game in the 4th Q. I also think Hart (if reasonably healthy, course, which all indications I've read suggest he's good to go) might not let UM lose this game.

I actually love the over in this game. Got it at 49 (this actually opened 45.5? .... crazy). This game will be played in the 60s, if not 70s. I can't see either defense offering any resistance. Juice will have a huge day on the ground, Mendenhall will get his yards, and Zook will find a way to get Benn the ball. On the other side, Henne's fully healthy, Manningham's finally resembling the player he was last year, and Mike Hart is Mike Hart. This will be a shootout. I play a lot of totals, but this is my favorite this season.

I'd wish you luck with Illinois, but I hope UM wins by 30.

[Razz]

Yeah, it's always hard to take over in a game involving Lloyd Carr, and Illinois has the best defense Michigan has seen since PSU, but I don't really know why this total didn't open 52 or so.

[Razz]

I also think Hart (if reasonably healthy, course, which all indications I've read suggest he's good to go) might not let UM lose this game.

That's certainly possible. There's a bad pun on heart/Hart somewhere, but that kid does have a lot of it. Of course, I'd rather have a 100% Mendenhall than a 90% Hart, but it's hard not to respect the way he has carried Michigan recently.

[rjt721]

That's certainly possible. There's a bad pun on heart/Hart somewhere, but that kid does have a lot of it. Of course, I'd rather have a 100% Mendenhall than a 90% Hart, but it's hard not to respect the way he has carried Michigan recently.

It's funny, in terms of talent Hart's not one of the top 50 backs in the country - he's small, slow, lacks big-play ability, yet he may very well be the best player in the country (I'm bias of course). He's one of the toughest players I've seen in a long time, he never goes down on first contact, and he's extremely reliable.

I remember watching him for the first time his freshman year against ND and thinking it was a joke that this short, slow kid actually got a football scholarship to UM. I still think he won't be anything more than a backup in the NFL, but he could prove me wrong again.

[pags11]

I hold my positions 100% of the time on games and don't make ridiculous claims on Monday when games aren't played until Saturday...it's the only way I know how to wager...it must be fun to wager in imagination land like I saw in south park tonight...

[Razz]

I hold my positions 100% of the time on games and don't make ridiculous claims on Monday when games aren't played until Saturday...it's the only way I know how to wager...it must be fun to wager in imagination land like I saw in south park tonight...

That doesn't make any sense. The only thing I said was ridiculous was that OU wasn't a DD favorite. The line closed 13.5/14.

[regularguy]

If I may interrupt ... and go back to Nevada/Utah St.

I am not comfortable betting either way on the line, but I've been tempted by the over, at 66.

These are two terrible defenses, the two worst in the WAC (which is what caught my attention). Nevada has given up 1614 rushing yards, more than everyone in the country except Syracuse and Louisiana Lafayette. Together, Nevada and Utah state give up an average of 76.8 points per game.

Nevada's offense has new life, with the new quarterback, the gifted redshirt freshman, Colin Kaepernick. Nevada's offensive line has apparently worked out some of its problems. You saw Nevada's offense against the good Boise State defense, in Boise. It seemed not to be a fluke. Nevada was running right at them much of the time.

Utah State's offense scored 37 two weeks ago against the good Hawaii defense. There seems to be life there as well.

I know Nevada must still be sore from that slugfest in Boise, but, on the other hand, that was a major confidence builder, and Nevada must be hungry for a win.

Is 66 just too much?

Good luck to you all this week.

[BuddyBear]

I know Nevada must still be sore from that slugfest in Boise, but, on the other hand, that was a major confidence builder, and Nevada must be hungry for a win.

Is 66 just too much?

Good luck to you all this week.

If Nevada is hungry for a win Utah State must be famished by now!

I agree with your reasoning on both teams being able to score. NEV is just horrible defensively and Utah State is just as bad (but in different areas). Nevada ranks dead last against the run and Utah State should be able to move the ball against them. Utah State is just average against stopping the run but compared to NEV they are considerably better. Moreover, Utah's weakness on defense is their inability to stop the pass. Well that might be minimized this week b/c you have an inexperienced QB playing who despite playing very well was not very accurate with his throws.

The one drawback then is that NEV will try to run the ball and Utah State will surely run the ball on the #119 rushing defense. So what does that mean? TICK TICK TICK on the game clock.

Another thing to consider is that game film is starting to emerge on Colin Kapernick so DC should be able to better scheme. At least they should not be caught off guard after having arounnd 6 quarters of game film to watch on him.

I made Utah State +7 one of my plays as they fall into some strong systems and situations this week and you know my philsophy about teams who are laying points on the road who can't stop the run. No real strong opinion on the total and certainly it could fly over but with the emphasis on the running game it may not be easy as it seems.

Good luck....

[regularguy]

Good points BuddyBear. Will take that all into consideration. Thanks.

[pags11]

what I'm saying is that I don't have a whole lot of respect for people that pop off at the beginning of the week about how one team is going to kill another...they don't post their plays, then come in after the fact to talk about how they've middled a game...thus, my comment regarding imagination land...

[imgv94]

I agree 100% pags. Makes me wonder if there would of been any mention of a middle if Oklahoma won by 20+...


Keep up the good work pags, your "POSTED PLAYS" have been great sir.

[tab]

They might be overreactions on your end Razz, but few of the lines you list are inflated like you may believe. I know you're relatively young, but people have blindly had this logic for years. "Bet on teams after losses, because they'll be soooo pissed off the next week" often seems to be the general consensus. Often times said teams just aren't as good as previously thought, or tend to take losses as negative instead of positive motivation the following week.

I had a buddy that used to work for the LVSC, and they would regularly inflate lines for a previously top ranked team coming off of a loss for the very reason you believe is groundbreaking thought. I can remember several years back him saying they had further padded a Texas line after they had just come off a loss because the general consensus would be that they would further pour it on Baylor or someone like that.

I know you love the game and probably already know this deep down, but virtually any tactic that you brainstorm that you believe is the new innovative way to take down every sportsbook has most likely been thought of and accounted for years before. It never hurts to pull up old stats and plug numbers to test any new theories you might have though. GL and I hope you do come up with some previously unknown way to make a fortune buddy....

Hey Big Bullocks,
It was fun collecting our winnings on Rugers and we were both right. I really agree with your concept of inflated point spreads for a team coming of a loss and being pisseod off. This is very innovative way for oddsmakers to throw a highly inflated point at the public and the public is all over it. I had a buddy working in a sportsbook too and he told me the exact same thing. This week there is one game that follows this model of an inflated pointspread and it is the Purdue Iowa game this week. The public is thinking that Purdue is going to be so pissed off and it will come out and stomp Iowa. We got to remember that Purdue always a good start and than just falters towards the middle and the end of the season. Purdue is way overrated. In this matchup, Iowa has won 4 of the last 5 and won by 41 last year. Seems like Purdue is a very negative situation with this game. While is feeling good about itself after upsetting Illinois. I really think that Iowa's defense will keep them in the game and will pull out the upset. Are there any takers on Purdue in this game, I like to know.

[tab]

UTah St +7

If Nevada is hungry for a win Utah State must be famished by now!

I agree with your reasoning on both teams being able to score. NEV is just horrible defensively and Utah State is just as bad (but in different areas). Nevada ranks dead last against the run and Utah State should be able to move the ball against them. Utah State is just average against stopping the run but compared to NEV they are considerably better. Moreover, Utah's weakness on defense is their inability to stop the pass. Well that might be minimized this week b/c you have an inexperienced QB playing who despite playing very well was not very accurate with his throws.

The one drawback then is that NEV will try to run the ball and Utah State will surely run the ball on the #119 rushing defense. So what does that mean? TICK TICK TICK on the game clock.

Another thing to consider is that game film is starting to emerge on Colin Kapernick so DC should be able to better scheme. At least they should not be caught off guard after having arounnd 6 quarters of game film to watch on him.

I made Utah State +7 one of my plays as they fall into some strong systems and situations this week and you know my philsophy about teams who are laying points on the road who can't stop the run. No real strong opinion on the total and certainly it could fly over but with the emphasis on the running game it may not be easy as it seems.

Good luck....

I totally agree with you on this pick. Utah State may even win this game outright. Almost everyone is on Nevada on this game and I don't understand why except for you. I will be counting my winnings at the window just like you. Good luck on your all plays this weekend.

[Wassymac]

Hey Big Bullocks,
Are there any takers on Purdue in this game, I like to know.

I believe Razz, who started this thread, is on Purdue. You think it's an inflated line and he thinks it's an overreaction.

I personally don't know what to think here but regardless of the outcome Tiller needs to be gone. That man simply does not care about winning. I also have no trust in Curtis Painter in any sort of a big game (which this probably isn't).

One positive for Purdue is that their starting RB (Taylor) could be back after missing 5 games today. Another negative though is that Kory Sheets is still in a mysterious doghouse so if Taylor can't go they are left with nothing at all for RB.

Purdue should win this easily with Iowa's struggles against the pass but as a fan I'm pessimistic that they'll do what they should. I'd take Iowa +7 if I had to.