[Smutbucket]

Hello Fellas. Another beautiful college football season is upon us. I will bet posting my college and NFL picks in this thread. My college picks I spend a lot more time analyzing because I enjoy it more and will try to post in depth detailed analysis for my picks. Discussion and feedback is welcome or If you see an angle in a game and would like me to address please feel free to bring it up. All lines Im using are the lines I got off pickmonitor.com when I made my selection....


My pasts forum threads and records for college football are as follows:

NCAAF '12 Season: 80-58 (58%) +22.7 units http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...hread-p14.html
NCAAF '13 Season: 96-97 (50%) +11.47 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...n-smut-p5.html
NCAAF '14 Season: 66-86 (43%) -28.6 units http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...season-p3.html
NCAAF '15 Season: 82-54 (60%) +27.58 units http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...riendlies.html


NCAAF Overall Postings: 324-295 (52%) +33.15 units



My records reflects a standardized unit betting size of 1.1 and not over inflated like many handicappers on this forum. My larger bets last year were 1.5 units but I think this year Im gonna up it to 2 units since my top rated plays ended 10-2 last season.


Writeups will follow shortly....

[Smutbucket]

Week 1

Thursday 9/1/16

Oregon State +13 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Oregon State ML (+400) Risking .25 units to win 1 units
Gary Anderson is a proven winning coach (except for last year’s debacle). We'll give him an exception for last year’s struggles as the team was just implementing the new system and most of its woes came at defense where they gave up 481 yards per game. Historically this is very unusual for a Gary Anderson coached team as he has had very strong defenses at Wisconsin from '13-'14 holding opponents to less than 300 yards per game and before that at Utah state as well. Of course he gained his notoriety in 2008 as defensive coordinator for the Utah Utes who went undefeated and upset Alabama in the sugar bowl. That teams defense held opponents to 17.2 ppg and under 200 total yards per game. Minnesota also brings in a whole new offensive system which could cause fits for the below average veteran QB Mitch Leidner. The genius that was Larry Kill is gone and most of his coaching staff is officially gone too now except for head coach Tracey Claeys who took over after Larry Kills departure last year. Darrel Garretson the new starting QB for Oregon State has experience starting 13 games back in ’13-’14 at Utah State. He’s a versatile athletic QB and shows poise under pressure. He will have plenty of offensive weapons with 8 returning starters including 6'5 giant WR Jordan Vallamin, and athletic speedster Seth Collins who was their starting QB last year solely because of his athleticism. They are familiar with the offense now and should be able to keep this game within 13 points without any issue. I see tremendous value on Oregon State as they have gone 5-16 ATS in the last 2 seasons, compared to a Minnesota team who has been historically undervalued the last two seasons, going 14-11 ATS, look for the odds makers to over-adjust to these inconsistencies, leading to value on Oregon State for opening week. Gary Anderson has also proven to have his team well prepared for opening weeks as he is 4-1 ATS on week 1’s with his one ATS loss being a .5 pt loss to LSU in ’14 at Wisconsin.


South Carolina Vs Vanderbilt under 42.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Both of these teams were offensive nightmares last year. South Carolinas offense averaged 355 yards per game (Rk #101), 5.3 yards per play (Rk#68), and 21.9 points per game (Rk#105). Their defense was atrocious too but Muschamp will surely turn them around (at least enough in this first game against a very weak offensive team). His co-offensive coordinators are terrible and won’t have much talent to even work with as USC’s recruiting over the last few years has been well below par. Vanderbilt returns 15 starters, but the 8 on offense were amongst one of the worst offenses in the league. They averaged 4.1 yards per play (Rk#121), 12.3 points per game (Rk#125), and 307.7 yards per game (Rk#120). Staggeringly bad numbers but they're still better than they were the year before in Masons first year. Vanderbilt is going to be a strong under team with their very tough defense (and the majority of it returning with 72.4% of all tackles % returning) and who knows maybe their offense will start to click later in the season but I doubt it will in week 1 against a conf opponent like south Carolina and Muschamp looking to prove himself on the other end. Mason’s teams have come out notoriously flat footed as they scored 7 points in their home opener in ’14 against Temple, and only 12 points last year against a very weak W. Kentucky team. Both coaches love to play ultra-conservative tough defense football and expect this outcome to be very similar to last year’s matchup when South Carolina won 19-10 over Vanderbilt.


Saturday 9/3/16

Northwestern -5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Unbelievable line here. I have this game set around -13. Northwestern is a team that continues to fly under the radar. They were one of the best defenses in the Big10 last year giving up 20.2 ppg (Rk#14), 4.5 opponents yards per play (Rk#8), and 5.6 yards per pass (Rk#3). They have much of their key defensive players returning, including 67% of their total tackles returning. Junior Strong Safety Godwin Igwebuike is a very experienced junior who has had many snaps his freshman and sophomore year and has tremendously improved over the course of his career. Look for him to be one of the best safeties in the nation. On offense, my boy Clayton Thorson returns to the helm more experienced than ever. Last year watching their games you would know a lot of his incompletions were due to their weak receiving corps, most of which are gone this year and a fresh new batch of receivers who will surely be focused and timed in with their QB. Their offensive line has 3 strong returning starters but they won’t be tested very hard against a western Michigan defense that notoriously is incapable of applying pressure (last year 4.22 QB sack% Rk#110) as their level of recruits and athletes do not match up with BIG 10 schools. You might hear a lot of hype about this western Michigan teams whose large majority of “productive” offense returns. I put productive in quotes because they were only productive against their very weak scheduled opponents. The only two tough defensive teams they played they averaged less than 5 yards per play. Look for them to be in shambles and surprised what a good defense looks like, maybe they’ll throw in a lucky trick play or two but Pat Fitzgerald knows how to get his teams prepared opening week going 6-2 ATS in opening games including a +10 point dog upset last year over Stanford that I predicted as well. Almost pulled the trigger on this one for two units but decided against since the big gap disparity between lines is a little suspicious.

[ZINISTER]

As always your insight is a pleasure to read. Keep up the good work!

[MikeyPicks1]

Looks good. And good luck to you.

[Seadoo]

good luck

[Seadoo]

As always your insight is a pleasure to read. Keep up the good work!

lovely avatar!

[ZINISTER]

lovely avatar!

I think so!

[crackerjack]

I really like NW as well. I don't know why, but I think there will be points in the Vandy game. I have no reason to think that, other than a feeling. Staying away from the total in that one.

[Hu$tle]

Tailing NW BOL

[Smutbucket]

Thanks for all the kind words fellas. BOL to ALL this season

[spearkl29]

Great start....just promise you will stick around this season...in good times and bad!! Cheers!

[PackerBacker]

Dapper, nice calls last night.

[Smutbucket]

Great start....just promise you will stick around this season...in good times and bad!! Cheers!

Ya you can check my threads, they are posted at the top. I have posted from beginning to end of every college football season....I don't quit brother

Dapper, nice calls last night.

Thanks !

[Smutbucket]

Okay fellas Nice Opening Thursday

2-1 +1.75 units

Here's Saturday's Plays. May add more in the morning.


Saturday 9/3/16

Northwestern -5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Unbelievable line here. I have this game set around -13. Northwestern is a team that continues to fly under the radar. They were one of the best defenses in the Big10 last year giving up 20.2 ppg (Rk#14), 4.5 opponents yards per play (Rk#8), and 5.6 yards per pass (Rk#3). They have much of their key defensive players returning, including 67% of their total tackles returning. Junior Strong Safety Godwin Igwebuike is a very experienced junior who has had many snaps his freshman and sophomore year and has tremendously improved over the course of his career. Look for him to be one of the best safeties in the nation. On offense, my boy Clayton Thorson returns to the helm more experienced than ever. Last year watching their games you would know a lot of his incompletions were due to their weak receiving corps, most of which are gone this year and a fresh new batch of receivers who will surely be focused and timed in with their QB. Their offensive line has 3 strong returning starters but they won’t be tested very hard against a western Michigan defense that notoriously is incapable of applying pressure (last year 4.22 QB sack% Rk#110) as their level of recruits and athletes do not match up with BIG 10 schools. You might hear a lot of hype about this western Michigan teams whose large majority of “productive” offense returns. I put productive in quotes because they were only productive against their very weak scheduled opponents. The only two tough defensive teams they played they averaged less than 5 yards per play. Look for them to be in shambles and surprised what a good defense looks like, maybe they’ll throw in a lucky trick play or two but Pat Fitzgerald knows how to get his teams prepared opening week going 6-2 ATS in opening games including a +10 point dog upset last year over Stanford that I predicted as well. Almost pulled the trigger on this one for two units but decided against since the big gap disparity between lines is a little suspicious.




UCLA/Tex AM Under 54.5 (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
Upon first glance at this game it looks like an obvious total over selection and that’s what I was expecting to find once I started looking into the numbers. What I found was the opposite. Both teams have extremely experienced defenses returning, with 82.8% (UCLA) and 78% (TexAM) of all 2015 tackles made returning. Nine of the defensive starters are returning for UCLA and 6 for TexAM. You also have two of the top 10 defensive coordinators being matched up against each other. Jon Chavis in his 2nd year who we all know was behind LSU’s defensive powerhouse teams he coached from ’09-’14. He won the 2011 Broyles Award for best assistant head coach and if you look at the pro LBs and 1st round picks who have been coached under Chavis, the number is staggering. He made dramatic improvements to this TexAM defense last year limiting opponents to almost 100 yards less per game and almost 7 pts per game less. He knows how to coach a defense. On the other side you have Tom Bradley, and old time veteran coach who was behind Penn State’s glory years of tough top 10 defenses back from 2000-2011. In 2011 after the Paterno scandal broke he was interim head coach for the remainder of the season and resigned himself after the season and was not coaching football for a few years. He returned last year as just an assistant, DL coach to W.Virginia. This year he makes his true return to defensive coordinator and with many solid experienced players under his belt I expect him to do well. Another interesting tidbit of information for this game is that new TexasAM OC Noel Mazzone coached under Jim Mora from ’12-’15 before leaving for TexasAM. If anyone will be familiar with Noel Mazzones offense it would be this UCLA team. UCLA implements a new OC too of course and both offenses have many new pieces to them which may need some time to get going. This is a difficult pick for me knowing Kevin Sumlins offensive prowess and opening week preparations but all things considered this is a solid pick for 1 unit.


LSU -10.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
LSU returns one of the most experienced teams in college football with 18 returning starters. 97% of all yards gained last season for their offense are returning and 78% of tackles made on defense are returning. I love their OC Cam Cameron entering his fourth year and he has had plenty of time to work with these starting players he has and design the offense towards their advantages including powerhouse RB Leonard Fournette. New DC from Wisconsin, Dave Aranda had the #1 defense from ’13-’15 allowing only 289 ypg and 16.9 points per game over the 3 year span. He will be very familiar with Paul Chrysts offense having just left their last season. On the other side of the ball, you have Wisconsin, one of the last experienced teams in the nation. They have only 43% of their total yards returning and 65% of defensive tackles returning. They have 8 senior starters who don’t have much starting experience which is not a good sign of their talent level. Starting QB Bart Houston has been a backup for 3 years and has only received a few snaps in blowouts and one game against Illinois last year when Stave got hurt he went 22-33 for 232 yards with 2 TDs/2 INTs. This defense will be nothing like anything he has ever seen. In 2014 when LSU/Wisconsin opened up at neutral site, LSU came out flat-footed going down 17-7 at halftime, only to come back and win with a late comeback 28-24 in the fourth quarter. Don’t look for Les Miles to make this same mistake twice as this is a veteran team and I expect this fully to be a blowout. The line is low because LSU is notorious for winning close tight fought games but I am sure LSU is aware of this and will be looking to blowout this competition given the opportunity instead of the typical conservative play-calling that has branded Les Miles.


USC +12 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
This is just too many points here and the Alabama name is causing the lopsided number. Clay Helton and this coaching staff are very familiar with this team with a lot of experience coming back. All 5 starting offensive linemen are returning sporting the team with most career starts by OL at 131 total. They should give plenty of time for incoming new starting QB, Max Browne, who was one of the top ranked recruited QB of 2013. He ranked #1 QB according to Rivals and 247 Sports (#2 by ESPN) and #20 in ESPN’s TOP 300 overall. He is 6’5, 230 lbs and has had time to develop at a top notch collegiate facility and was recruited by Clay Helton. Watching his highlight reel, you would see he handles pressure very well with great footwork, has a very high release, and very good arm strength. He has had a few opportunities to throw in games in the last two years but this will be his first true test. On Alabama’s side the starting QB position is still up for grabs between Cooper Bateman and young highly touted true freshman recruit Blake Barnett. If you remember, Bateman was benched last year for Jake Coker in the 5th game. He is hesitant to make the big throw at the right time, likes to check down and makes the easy completions, and sports only 1 TD and 2 INTs in his career. Blake Barnett was as highly accredited as Max Browne was in 2013 as far as recruiting rankings, but lacks the time and experience to develop at a collegiate level. I expect either QB to struggle and although I think Alabama wins I do not think it will be a blowout.

Auburn +8.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
I’m probably one of the biggest fans of Swinney, Venables, and DeShaun Watson, but this is just too many points. Venables now will have had two seasons back to back where a majority of his talent and depth is depleted. I believed in him and bet on him a lot last year but this year I expect the defensive numbers to slide a bit. This is one of the few teams in college football with 0 positions that have 2 deep seniors. Their experience rank is 101st with only 4 returning starters on defense. Some of DeShaun Watson’s throws and athletic ability are some of the best I’ve ever seen, but still too many points. If you’ve been following my write-ups over the years you would know I am also a big Gus Malzahn fan. Last year their defense is what really struggled and I expect that to change with new DC Kevin Steele. He is a seasoned veteran who coached with many major schools and coaches even under Swinney from ’09-’12. Their offense sputtered at times too but that was with overhyped buffoon Jeremy Johnson at starting QB. This year Sean White gets the nod but we can expect FSU dual threat speedster John Franklin III to get plenty of reps and eventually take over the starting role. It’s not that Sean White is bad he’s a game manager who doesn’t make mistakes but Franklin would just be that much more dynamic in the opener. I think White was named starter just to throw off Clemson in the opener. Malzahn has been known to interchange QB’s quite frequently and against an inexperienced defense I fully expect Malzahn to take advantage of it and exploit weakness and score at will against Clemson. This will be a close one possession game coming down to the last few minutes. The last two seasons now, Auburn has gone 7-16 ATS, after an 11-2 ATS 2013. Rarely do you ever see these trends continue as odds makers will over adjust to compensate for this especially against a popular public team like Clemson as they were in the national championship game last year and went 7-6 ATS.

[ZINISTER]

Like your theory about the DC's knowledge about the competition. That's why I took the UNDER. Wisc. kids will paly inspired due to the fact they are playing at Lambeau field. Looking forward to this game! Hope we both cash! GL

[Smutbucket]

Saturday Addition:

Missouri +9.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
I love betting on teams with this many points and a much superior defense. I debated for a while whether or not to take Missouri Team total over 20 pts since both teams will be pushing the tempo but I feel like this is the better play. Their offense of course struggled last year but it’s widely known that it was in large part due to a very weak offensive line. Fortunately they have almost all departed the team this year. Drew Lock showed some potential last year despite having to run for his life the majority of the time. Their defense will be another powerhouse, returning 8 starters of a defense that only allowed 16.2 ppg, 3.3 yards per carry, and 302 yards per game despite having an offense that could not produce anything for them. They have 6 of the front 7 back on a defense that had the 2nd most TFL per game in NCAAF. Odom the DC of last year is now the head coach and will be sure to have the defense performing well in the opener. There is a lot of hype around this WVU offense returning 8 starters as well as starting QB Skylar Howard. I can’t say I ever really watched him play but his numbers show he struggled against any defense worth a damn last year. Expect this offense to be caught off guard as this will be a much more difficult game for them their normal big12 defenses they face.


All plays are 1 unit unless otherwise stated

Week 1 Card:

Thursday 9/1/16:
Oregon State +13 (-110) - Win + 1 unit
.25xOregon State ML (+400) - Loss - .25 units
SouthCar/Vandy Under 42.5 (-110) - Win + 1 units

Saturday 9/3/16
Northwestern -5 (-108)
UCLA/Tex AM Under 54.5 (-117)
LSU -10.5 (-106)
USC +12 (-106)
Auburn +8.5 (-112)
Missouri +9.5 (-103)

[Smutbucket]

Sorry Fellas :-( . Lets get it back next week. Think Ill have something for monday nights game but not done yet

Week 1 Card:

Thursday 9/1/16:
Oregon State +13 (-110) - Win + 1 unit
.25xOregon State ML (+400) - Loss - .25 units
SouthCar/Vandy Under 42.5 (-110) - Win + 1 units

Saturday 9/3/16
Northwestern -5 (-108) - LOSS - 1.08
UCLA/Tex AM Under 54.5 (-117) - LOSS - 1.17
LSU -10.5 (-106) - LOSS -1.06
USC +12 (-106) - LOSS -1.06
Auburn +8.5 (-112) - WIN + 1
Missouri +9.5 (-103) - LOSS - 1.03

Results: 3-6
-2.65 units

[Smutbucket]

Week 2 Plays:

BYU +3.5 (-116) Risking 2.32 units to win 2 units
We have a great revenge rivalry holy war game here with a superior BYU team over Utah getting points. Last year in the bowl game, BYU arguably dominated the 2nd half and really just ran out of time and couldn’t overcome their 5 turnovers to win, (2 INTs for TDs). BYU almost doubled Utah’s yardage total that only recorded 197 yards and still somehow won the game. This year, one of my all time favorite college QBs Taysom Hill returns and will not have 3 turnovers. He is a skilled veteran who can make things happen with his feet just as much as his arm. Old veteran RB Jamaal Williams also returns this year to BYU’s starting role, as he took the 2015 season off and redshirted. He is a workhorse runner who doesn’t stop his feet and will most likely go over 150+ yards like he did last week rushing for 162 yards on 29 carries. BYU returns 8 starters on a defense that ranked 9th nationally in TFL with 7.5. They got 8 last week against Arizona, including 4 sacks. They held a potent Arizona team who averaged 37 ppg last year to only 16 points last week. BYU also returns 3 starting o-lineman on a very experienced o-line with 101 career starts under their belt. Utah is coming off playing a shitty FCS opponent, southern Utah where they only won 24-0. Utah is returning with a new starting QB and new starting RB, who accounted for 80.3% of their yards last year. New Utah QB this year, Troy Williams, only hit 57% of his passes in the opener averaging 7.8 yards per attempt against a FCS school. He only started one game in his career (if you don’t count his JUCO starts last year) in 2014 when Cyler Miles got hurt for Washington and racked up two INTs, 0 TD’s and averaged 4.9 yards per attempt in his career at Washington. The Utah offensive line struggled in the opener, giving up 2 sacks even to a FCS team. This will probably be a close hard hitting low scoring game but I believe BYU will start to pull away in the 2nd half. Take the ML if you want but I feel more comfortable just taking the points and putting 2 units on it for the first TOP RATED pick of the season.


Boston College -16.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Boston College should have another strong defensive season, similar to last year’s 15.3 points per game allowed. They held a potent Georgia tech offense to 238 total yards on 59 plays, despite losing at the end of the game. New OC from VTech steps in Scott Loeffler who managed 31 ppg last year over at vetch despite their starting QB getting injured in the opening game and missing half the season last year. The offense almost entirely returns with added veteran Patrick Towles at QB. Although not an all-star he is very experienced and has started many games against some tough SEC defenses over the years. He should have no problem against this weak UMASS team. Despite losing last week their offense showed promise having rushed for 176 yards on 37 carries (averaging 4.76 ypc) against Gtech. I think they cover this spread easily against basically a FCS team, UMASS, who only returns 10 starters and has made virtually no coaching changes to a team that was 3-9 last year. Last week they could not even surmount 200 total yards against UF.

[Smutbucket]

Week 2 Additions:

Penn State vs Pitt Under 48 (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
This is a bit of a no-brainer where odds makers can’t really set a number low enough. Here you have two very strong defensive minded teams who play at a very slow methodical pace and are in the bottom tier as far as pace of play stats over the last few years. This will especially be the case when they matchup against another strong defensive team they will try to keep each other’s defenses on the field as long as possible and not risk the big play. Last week Pitt’s defense racked up 6 sacks for -36 yards, only to be beat by Penn State’s defense that racked up 7 sacks for -54 yards. They also had 18 TFL’s between their two defenses last week. Despite each team’s offense playing pretty weak defenses last week, they had a combined 13 TFL allowed (7 for Pitt, 6 for PennSt). A trend that continues for Penn State as last year they were ranked 111th allowing 7.15 TFL per game. In past write-ups I have talked a lot about these two teams’ coaches, Pat Narduzzi and James Franklin, two of my favorite defensive minded coaches. If you love hard hitting defenses, this is the game for you. No way I could pass up betting the under on this one.

Wake Forest +5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Dave Clawson is a not so well known coaching name, but he has turned around 3 different football programs in their 3rd and 4th year as coach. His most recent accomplishment was at Bowling Green culminating in a 10-3 record in ’13 and 8-1 conference record. He has the same OC and DC he had at Bowling Green and is now entering his 3rd year at Wake. They also return 9 starters on offense including two quarterbacks that know the system well. Now you may remember this Wake Forest team for being damn awful offensively but there are some signs of improvement over the last two years. Almost every statistical category improved from ’14-’15 and this very experienced wake team should improve even more this season. Their biggest pitfall last season was their offensive line and being -13 in the turnover ratio which we would hope to improve and drastically change the outcome of the games. Duke returns a very un-experienced team returning only 12 starters and losing their primary QB last season Thomas Sirk. They also lost their offensive coordinator to ECU, and simply promoted Zac Roper their TE/WR coach to offensive coordinator. I fully expect this to be a close conference game won by 4 points or less. Wake could even pull off the upset.

[Smutbucket]

Week 2 Last Addition:

Texas Tech +2 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Really like Texas Tech here to win outright. Not only does Arizona State lose a majority of their offense (only returning 4 starters) including their starting QB, but they also lose their offensive coordinator who ran the offense the last few years and simply promoted within someone with very little experience. On Texas Tech’s side we have returning my favorite big 12 quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Despite being injured much of last season he was still able to out maneuver defenses and put up great numbers. He is finally healthy and his mobility will really spell disaster for a defense like Arizona State that likes to bring pressure. They return 6 other starters on offense and have a very experienced receiving corps to drive this offense, that should have no problem throwing the ball against this Arizona State defense that ranked 114th in yards per pass attempt against. Their biggest question mark is their offensive line but with a QB like Mahomes it’s not such a big concern. They should mesh well and win this game in a shootout.

[Smutbucket]

Week 2 Full Card:
(2x) BYU +3.5 (-116)
Boston College -16.5 (-112)
Penn State vs Pitt Under 48 (-117)
Wake Forest +5 (-102)
Texas Tech +2 (-106)

[Smutbucket]

Week 2 Results: 3-2 +1.77 units

NCAAF Total: 6-8 -0.88 units

[Smutbucket]

NFL week 1:
Tennessee Titans +2.5 +104 Risked 1 unit to win 1.04
Cleveland Browns +3.5 -102 Risked 1.02 units to win 1
New York Jets +1 -104 Risked 1.04 units to win 1
Buf/Balt OVER 44.5 +108 Risked 1 unit to win 1.08
Miami Dolphins +10.5 -113 Risked 1.13 units to win 1
Dallas Cowboys +1 -100 Risked 1 unit to win 1

[Smutbucket]

NCAAF Week 3:

Texas A&M +3.5 (-106) Risking 2.12 units to win 2 units
This is a real head scratcher of a line and it’s comforting to know as a long term gambler that lines are not set based on the most probable outcome of a game but rather the line that’s going to achieve 50/50 action based on the market. Lines like these are indicative for what the market is doing because no way in hell do I think Auburn should be favored but the market must be betting Auburn pretty heavily. Lock this one early because I cannot see it getting any better than 3.5, even buy the .5 if you can but I am confident A&M wins outright. This is a Top Rated pick for 2 units and last year I went 10-2 in top rated picks (two losses in bowl games) and this year so far we’re 1-0 with BYU’s cover last week. The story of this game will be at the line of scrimmage. Texas A&M has a dominant defensive line with lineman like Myles Garret and Daeshon Hall. Having that type of penetration up front will really open things up for Jon Chavis and his defense. So far this year they have 8 TFL per game (Rk#28th) and a 9.62 sack % (Rk# 28th) but I expect them to be within the top 10 by the end of the year as most of the teams in the top of those rankings are there because of the cupcakes they have played. This will cause a ton of issues for the struggling Auburn offense. Auburns offense has allowed 9.5 TFL (Rk #121st) and 8.93 sack % (Rk#92nd) so far this season. Gus Malzhan still has not decided on a QB and frequently interchanges them especially when they are incapable of producing. Sean White, the starter so far, struggles handling pressure and is not very mobile. I think A&M wins this game no problem as they have plenty of offensive weapons and veteran QB, Trevor Knight will keep the offense productive.

Miami -3.5 (+101) Risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units
This is another odd line. Miami has been getting little to no respect from odds makers as of lately despite the coaching change and veteran team. Granted they have played two cupcake games so far this season and I am a hurricane homer but I still see plenty of value in this line. One of the biggest advantages and edges I see in this game is the level of competition these two teams have played over the last couple of years. Competition breeds success. Miami doesnt have an extremely tough schedule but I still put it very much ahead of Appalachian States strength of schedule. According to Team Rankings, Last year Appalachian states SOS ranked 97th with Miami being ranked 34th, but I think even those rankings are lop-sided and the gap should be larger when you look at the schedules individually. Miami’s defense has been playing lights out, sporting 28 TFL’s in two games (FAU and Florida A&M) and has only allowed 69 total rushing yards in two games. Their offense is explosive as ever with veteran QB Kaaya back and an arsenal of veteran receivers including Stacy Coley who was banged up much of last year. Last year, Miami’s biggest issues were on defense but new DC Manny Diaz has a track record of successful defenses, including last year at Miss State. He should be able to stop this App. State offense that will be much physically smaller and slower than Miami. Lock this line in early as I expect this line to move as well by game time.

[spearkl29]

Love your insight...thanks for all of the hard work...looking forward to this weekend!! Cheers!

[Smutbucket]

Thanks Spearkl! Here are my few additions. There will be more additions tomorrow morning by 10am.

Ohio State PK (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Going into last year, there was a ton of hype surrounding this returning Ohio State team, but they underperformed significantly especially in the beginning of the season going 6-7 ATS. This year there has been little talk and many questions because they only return 6 starters. But that is not so much of an issue when you’re consistently in the top 5 rankings of recruiting classes over the last 3 years and the most important key to their offense, QB JT Barret, returns. Urban Meyer has had this team prepared both on offense and defense. They haven’t just won a couple cupcake games; they’ve obliterated these teams, on offense and defense for 4 quarters. And it’s not like they’ve played FCS teams, they played a Bowling Green team who was 10-4 last year and Tulsa who was 6-7. They have yet to give up more than 70 yards on the ground or a rushing TD, holding opponents to 2 yards per carry with elite defensive lineman like Nick Bosa (Joey’s brother). They have yet to give up a passing TD as well with 7 INT and allowing only 302 yards on two games allowing 4 yards per pass attempt. These numbers are freaking ridiculous and show how dominant their line has been who has also broken up 11 passes, 11 TFL, and 4 sacks. As much as I love Baker Mayfield and his legendary comeback in Tennessee last year, I see Oklahoma losing this one as Ohio State is superior in almost every facet of this game. Even though I keep hearing, returning starters this and returning starters that for Oklahoma, lets remember this is a BIG 12 team whose competition is and schedule is very inferior to any SEC, ACC, or BIG 10 team in my opinion. Last year, Oklahoma’s pass defense started to get exposed as they started to play the few difficult teams on their schedule. In their last 4 games, they allowed 257 passing yards per game and allowed 7.7 yards per attempt. Something that has been a continued trend this year as they have also given up 7.7 yards per attempt against Houston (325 total) and LA-Monroe (272 total). I was fortunate enough to jump on this when it was a pick-em at (-112). Depended on your book it might cost you an extra 10-20 cents to get them on the ML. I suspect a line move in Oklahoma’s favor though so don’t pay more than -140 and wait till game time I think it might go back the other way and doubt it goes past +/- 2.5 either way.


Pittsburgh +6 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Pittsburgh ML (+200) Risking .5 units to win 1 units
My favorite matchups are finding a superior defense and superior running team as underdogs against another opponent. Throw in superior coaching and we have ourselves a real gem here. I already talked a lot about this Pitt defense last week (even though they didn’t show up last week), so let me talk a little about their offense. James Conner is probably one of the hardest working players in college football. If you don’t know his story, he tore his MCL last year in the opening week. After the tear he noticed a significant decline in his health and found a tumor and was diagnosed with cancer. Not only did he undergo chemotherapy and is now cancer-free, but he trained the entire time doing so, despite the toll chemotherapy takes on your body. Last week you could see the work he put in and the extra push his offensive line was getting, as they dominated a tough Penn state front. He ran for 117 yards on 22 carries, and added 4 receptions for 29 yards. He straight up ran over people despite having chemotherapy only 5 months ago. The team rushed for 341 yards on 56 carries (6.09 ypc) which opened up the passing game for them even though they didn’t need to utilize it so much since they dominated the trenches. This game against Oklahoma State will be much of the same. Oklahoma State is not a team that defends the run well and their defense is geared towards stopping pass happy Big 12 defenses. Last year in their last 5 games, (their only difficult games) they gave up 264.4 rushing yards per game on only 242 attempts, giving up 5.5 yards per carry. This year they haven’t given up 100 yards yet on the ground but to two cupcake teams which was the same way last year started for them. On the offensive side, Oklahoma State will struggle to run as well, creating turnovers and putting too much pressure on Mason Rudolph. Even after the two very weak opponents Okla. State has played they are ranked 116th in yards per rush averaging 3.03 ypc. This is a recipe for disaster against this Pitt front that has only allowed 127 rushing yards on the season and 1.98 ypc. Take the points for a unit and the ML for a half unit. I am pretty sure we hit both of these. ACC conference is an up and coming powerhouse conference with their recent coaching additions of Narduzzi and Richt to complement their already top notch coaches in Fisher, Petrino, and Swinney. Remember tough competition breeds success so look for ACC conference to step up a lot the next few years. They have already dominated the BIG 12 over the last 3 years going 5-1.

[Smutbucket]

Week 3 Final Additions:

Temple +8.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Overreaction line 101. Week 1 loss to army and all of a sudden you find Penn State favored by 9 over Temple. Temple returns much of the same team with 12 returning starters, including QB and RB, and the same team and coaching staff that smashed Penn State by 17 last year. Watching much of the Pitt/Penn State game, I was very surprised how weak Penn State’s front was. This is not the same team it was last year and I expect Temple to run all over them like Pittsburgh did. Penn State’s offense is definitely better now that Hackenberg is gone but Temple’s defense and Penn state’s lack of defense will keep this game close. They return four starters to an offensive line that was one of the worst in college football. I’m not one to believe in public percentages or websites that offer “insight” into the most valuable information to odds makers, but this one is obvious the public money will be on Penn State. “Free Handicappers” who make picks via pick monitor have Penn state selected 10-4 over Temple. Take the points and relax as this will be a close game within a touchdown and should cover easily.

Ohio +27 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Tennessee has been overrated all year, and their final scores might make you start to believe and buy into the hype. But let’s delve a little deeper into the numbers. Against VTech, Tennessee was outgained by 70 yards giving up 400 yards to this VTech offense. VTech also averaged 5.48 yards per play, a half yard better than Tenn.’s 5.08 yards per play. The +4 turnover margin including 5 recovered fumbles were very fortunate breaks for this Tennessee team and led to the blowout. Ohio will take care of the football and are +3 in the TO margin themselves this year. Against an overrated App State team Tennessee gave up 292 yards and 4.42 yards per play, only racking up 319 total yards and 4.43 yards per play themselves. Josh Dobbs struggles with accuracy and mid range balls. This Ohio offense is established and can put up points, averaging 45 ppg and 1126 yards in two games averaging 5.93 yards per play. Tennessee rushing defense has given up 185 yards per game and I expect Ohio to run the ball often draining the clock. Although I give a strong coaching edge to Tennessee and Butch Jones, I just have to believe Ohio is motivated enough to keep this one close and within 27 points.


Oregon +3 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Even though Prukop is a freshman who has only started 2 games, he looks like a veteran out there. He’s a playmaker who keeps cool under pressure and finds the open man. He sports one of the highest complete percentages at 68.9%. He is mobile and extremely elusive. We know what were going to get from Armstrong and that’s most likely a few INT’s probably one in the end zone. Oregon’s speed will just be too much for this Nebraska team that is not accustomed to it being in the BIG10. Oregon has a ton of different playmakers on offense that have been averaging 6.73 yards per carry as a team, being led by Rolls Royce Freeman who is averaging 9.19 yards per carry. This will most likely be a shootout and one possession game. I think we’re getting value in this line partially because Oregon is 0-2 ATS and Nebraska is 2-0 ATS.

Texas -7 (-100) Risking 1.00 units to win 1 units
Cal defense has been as bad as ever. You would think from playing Hawaii and San Diego State their rushing defense might have some decent numbers despite weak competition. You would be wrong as they are ranked dead last 128th in yards per rush giving up 6.85 yards per rush and 291 rushing yards per game. Shane Buechele is one of the most impressive Freshman I have seen in a while sporting a 71.7 comp% and 9.9 yards per attempt. They have a combined 408 rushing yards on the season in two games and will probably rack up another 400 in this game. Their defense will get enough stops and cause a few turnovers and should cover this spread easily. I had this game circled when it was at -9, but now that its dropped to -7, I am freaking thrilled with it.

[Smutbucket]

Week 3 Full Card:
(2x) Texas A &M +3.5 (-106)
Miami -3.5 (+101)
Ohio State PK (-112)
Pittsburgh +6 (-106)
(.5x) Pittsburgh ML (+200)
Ohio +27 (-112)
Temple +8.5 (-107)
Oregon +3 (-112)
Texas -7 (+100)

[shopbar picks]

I like the Oregon pick. But the QB is a senior transfer from Mt. St. Like Adams last year from E. Wa? I belive. Best of luck today

[Smutbucket]

I like the Oregon pick. But the QB is a senior transfer from Mt. St. Like Adams last year from E. Wa? I belive. Best of luck today

Thanks shopbar, I was using cfbstats.com and forgot they dont include FCS transfers stats...

[Smutbucket]

Week 3 Results: 5-3 +3.44 units

NCAAF YTD: 11-11 +2.56 units

[Smutbucket]

NFL Week 2:
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Panthers -5.5 and Broncos -.5 . Risking 2.4 units to win 2 units
Dolphins +5.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Tenn/Det Over 48 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
Atl/Oak Over 47.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

Adding
Packers -1 (-109) risking 1.09 units to win 1 units

[spearkl29]

Keep it up Smut!! Every week means more $$$!

[ZINISTER]

Ride OSU out Bucket! They can work teams for easy covers!