Pags' Plays

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  • pags11
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 08-18-05
    • 12264

    #1
    Pags' Plays
    Hello Board,

    Here are my plays for the week:

    Colorado St. +16.5

    Colorado St. played a hard fought game vs. Colorado last week. It was a game that I watched very carefully and I must say that for the first time in a while, that I was really impressed with CSU. RB Kyle Bell is back and he looked good last week. He has an excellent combination of speed and power which should be a factor vs. a suspect Cal defense. QB Caleb Hanie is now a senior and has some experience under his belt. Look for him to throw frequently to his favorite target (and maybe the best TE in the country you've never heard of), Kory Sperry. It's also important to note that all three of these players are seniors, along with playmaking WR Johnny Walker. Situationally, this game sets up well due to the fact that Cal spent a lot of energy last week in beating Tennessee. Also, if you watched last week's game, you saw that Cal's defense is definitely vulnerable. I see a fairly high scoring game here, and I'm taking CSU and the points here.

    Western Michigan -2

    Western Michigan is an extremely solid football team, regardless of the conference they are from. This is a very big game for them, as they've never had a Big 10 team come play in Kalimazoo. This is not a typical MAC team, as they are a vetreran, physical team and play very well at home (they have only lost one home game the last two years). It's important not to put much stock into them getting drilled at WVU last week, because about 95% of the teams in the country would get their butts whipped in Morgantown these days too. Indiana has some major question marks on defense and doesn't really have a true RB. The key to this game will be Western Michigan's ability to contain Indiana WR James Hardy (whom I have a lot of respect for). Going with the home team here and laying the small number.

    Michigan -6.5

    I've heard all week how Michigan sucks, the world is ending and they won't beat a Pop Warner team the rest of the year. I can tell you that I watched every play of the game between them and Appalachian St. (Big 10 Network baby!) and I'm confident in saying that on a neutral field, Appy St. would only be slight underdogs to Oregon. That being said, I feel the number in this particular game is a bit short, partially due to the overreaction from Michigan's loss last week. Expect a focused performance from a very talented team. Oregon gave up near 500 yards last week at home to Houston, and now everyone expects them to come in and beat Michigan in the Big House? I think not. One player to watch for Michigan who emerged last week as a third WR, was Greg Matthews. With everyone so focused on Hart, Manningham and Arrington, this kid could have a big day.

    Colorado +16

    Colorado's issue last year was their offense. They have the coaching, they have the athletes and they have a good defense. I have to admit that I was extremely skeptical when I heard that Dan Hawkins kid was coming into the CU program. However, I can now tell you that after watching last week's game that I'm confident that Cody Hawkins is one of the top freshman QB's in the country. This guy knows the system and is an excellent decision maker. There's no doubt that ASU is a talented football team and that they play well at home. This week, though, they aren't playing a WAC school who lost their best RB one play into the game, but rather a physical Big 12 team. CU must weather the early onslaught ASU will throw at them, and if they do it should be a pretty good game.

    Vandy +5.5

    Vandy is a team that I've followed closely the last couple of years and I'm not sure they are getting the proper respect they deserve yet. Bobby Johnson is as good of a coach as there is in the country. WR Earl Bennett is one of the best receivers in the country, especially when it comes to moving the chains. Chris Nickson is a fantastic, young, mobile QB who continues to improve with each game. I look for them to attack a soft Alabama defense in this one. This game should be a grind-it-out special. Vandy will attempt to keep the game close and get some key turnovers, while exciting the home crowd. Vandy is no longer an SEC dormat, as I honestly think they can be a bowl team this year.

    N.C. State +14

    I think this spot sets up nicely for Tom O'Brien's return to B.C., as well as that B.C. is coming off a revenge game vs. Wake Forest last week. I am a little concerned about RB Anthony Baker being lost for the season, but since the carries were being split between him and Andre Brown it definitely softens the blow. Also, I like that QB Harrison Beck will start this game. He performed well last week in the second half vs. UCF and was very highly touted out of high school. He will look to seize the opportunity given to him and lead the offense. WR/KR Darrell Blackman is a playmaker and should provide a spark in this one. The key for the N.C. State defense will be containing QB Matt Ryan. What better person to try to defend him than his old coach? I think this could end up being a pretty good battle.

    South Florida +7.5

    I've been really impressed with the rise of this USF program. Jim Levitt does an excellent job recruiting as well as the way he manages his team on gameday. This is a team that is very fast and also physical. They are led by their sophmore QB Matt Grothe. Grothe is very mobile and also has a strong arm. RB Benjamin Williams is a good back who's runs should keep the Auburn pass rush in check. One thing I noticed last week during Auburn's game with KSU was that QB Brandon Cox again injured himself. This time the injury occured on his non throwing hand thumb. This could affect his performance, especially since he's coming off an injury riddled 2006 season. This game should have all of the excitement of a typcial SEC battle. Look for a close game either way.

    Good luck to all.

    pags11
  • Wassymac
    SBR MVP
    • 02-22-06
    • 1090

    #2
    Great write-ups as always...also great to see you matching up with a good chunk of my card. Best of luck this weekend Pags
    Comment
    • Hoja Verdes
      SBR MVP
      • 08-23-06
      • 1403

      #3
      you got Sunday night lines as always. way to play the early line.
      Comment
      • imgv94
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-16-05
        • 17192

        #4
        Pags,

        Superb writeups my friend. Thank you for all your contributions on here. Just know you are definitely appreciated!
        Comment
        • White_Tiger
          SBR Sharp
          • 08-29-07
          • 465

          #5
          Thanks Pags. I'm sorry I got nothing much to write in here since I still learn college betting style. I'll try to contribute my NFL betting to the forum later on.
          BOL.
          Comment
          • BuddyBear
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-10-05
            • 7233

            #6
            With you till the end Coach.....
            Comment
            • rjt721
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 02-06-07
              • 7929

              #7
              With you on UM (completely agree with your thoughts on Greg Mathews - he's going to be a good one) and CSU, against your Colorado play.

              That USF/Auburn game has me perplexed. I've had my eye on USF in this game for several weeks, but was hoping to get +9 or better. I still think USF is clearly the right side, but with Auburn's pathetic offensive performance last week, which is largely responsible for the short line, I'm not sure there's much value with USF at the current price. I'm still debating whether to make a play in this one. Might even throw a little on USF ML.

              Good luck pags.
              Comment
              • bigboydan
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 08-10-05
                • 55420

                #8
                I'm with you on N.C. State Pags.

                BOL this week
                Comment
                • dante1
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 10-31-05
                  • 38647

                  #9
                  Thanks Pags, Vandy backers are actually thining about a bowl bid this year. They could be a very improved team.
                  Very nice write ups. Good luck.
                  Comment
                  • austintx05
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-24-06
                    • 3156

                    #10
                    Good luck amigo...
                    Comment
                    • sirwinzalot
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 06-13-07
                      • 121

                      #11
                      Good luck Bret. On Vandy and plan to hit NC State.
                      Comment
                      • imgv94
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-16-05
                        • 17192

                        #12
                        I'm predicting 5-2 on these plays..


                        btw everyone pags is: 5-3 YTD so far this season....
                        Comment
                        • pags11
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 08-18-05
                          • 12264

                          #13
                          thank you gentlemen...let's keep truckin' through the season...
                          Comment
                          • onlooker
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 08-10-05
                            • 36572

                            #14
                            Only one of those I like is Western Michigan, but I am passing on it. But I will be on the under in that game (60). It probably won't matter, but you couldn't get better then -2?

                            Good luck this weekend Pags.
                            Comment
                            • imgv94
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-16-05
                              • 17192

                              #15
                              Originally posted by onlòóker
                              It probably won't matter, but you couldn't get better then -2?
                              He got good lines in 6 out of his 7 games and you mention the one game where he got a bad line?
                              hmmm.. Interesting to say the least.
                              Comment
                              • onlooker
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 08-10-05
                                • 36572

                                #16
                                Originally posted by imgv94
                                He got good lines in 6 out of his 7 games and you mention the one game where he got a bad line?
                                hmmm.. Interesting to say the least.
                                Not taking a shot at him. Just asking a question. And because I pinpointed that one, is because its a game I have a lean on. The others I don't, so I don't pay attention to the lines of the other 6 games he posted.
                                Comment
                                • cashflow50
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 01-23-07
                                  • 140

                                  #17
                                  Any thoughts on Navy/Rutgers game?
                                  Comment
                                  • LT Profits
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 10-27-06
                                    • 90963

                                    #18
                                    Pags,

                                    I agree with all but two of those.

                                    I guess I am in the SBR minority, but I actually like Oregon (although I got +8, so we could root for a 7...LOL). I think this will be the type of game where neither defense could stop the opposing offense, and the team with the ball last could very well win. That said, I preferred +8 to going Over the highish total. Besides, I bet predominantly dogs and Unders anyway.

                                    The other one I don't like is NC State, although I am not actually betting that game at all.

                                    One play that I would like to add is South Florida/Auburn UNDER 39.

                                    Good Luck!
                                    Comment
                                    • onlooker
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 08-10-05
                                      • 36572

                                      #19
                                      I was actually leaning on that Oregon/Michigan UNDER 65.
                                      Comment
                                      • pags11
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 08-18-05
                                        • 12264

                                        #20
                                        LT profits,

                                        take a free pick from me this week bud...Michigan taps that ass...
                                        Comment
                                        • pags11
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 08-18-05
                                          • 12264

                                          #21
                                          cashflow,

                                          I just saw your post...no opinion on that one...
                                          Comment
                                          • imgv94
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-16-05
                                            • 17192

                                            #22
                                            pags,

                                            I'm so pumped about tomorrow.
                                            Comment
                                            • rjt721
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 02-06-07
                                              • 7929

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by pags11
                                              LT profits,

                                              take a free pick from me this week bud...Michigan taps that ass...


                                              I don't even think this one will be competitive.

                                              Prediction:

                                              UM 37
                                              OU 17
                                              Comment
                                              • pags11
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 08-18-05
                                                • 12264

                                                #24
                                                imgv,

                                                I know it bro...

                                                rtj,

                                                agreed regarding the Michigan game...
                                                Comment
                                                • austintx05
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 08-24-06
                                                  • 3156

                                                  #25
                                                  rjt/pags - best of luck to you guys on this UM game...I hope they come out and bury Oregon...I couldn't play it....2 of the more respected posters on the net..nothin but the best...kick the books ass.....
                                                  Comment
                                                  • babaoriley
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-11-06
                                                    • 2316

                                                    #26
                                                    Best of luck pags. Hope you don't mind me tailing you while I sharpen my NFL acumen. Only disagreement I have with you is that USF game.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • pags11
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 08-18-05
                                                      • 12264

                                                      #27
                                                      thanks austin...

                                                      baba,

                                                      no problem at all...BOL...be careful going against that pesky USF team though...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • HAPPY BOY
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 08-10-05
                                                        • 7109

                                                        #28
                                                        Lopve UM pags, saw the line flux between 7.5 and 7 ...got them @ 7

                                                        UM -7 5units GL to all
                                                        Comment
                                                        • McBa1n
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-02-06
                                                          • 2642

                                                          #29
                                                          With ya on Michigan - I watched them last week too, they didn't look THAT bad (Yeah, B10 network woo!). That was a weird game last week.
                                                          I've been waiting all week to take USF - but man I havn't been able to pull the trigger for some reason. I really like the play....
                                                          Like the W. Mich play, too - glad I waited on that, got it at pick.
                                                          Riding BC -13 1/2 today, also. They want to destroy NC State for obvious reasons. Got a feeling on that one.
                                                          GL, brother.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • pags11
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 08-18-05
                                                            • 12264

                                                            #30
                                                            I stunk today guys...my bad...I let the forum down...I will get better...
                                                            Comment
                                                            • sirwinzalot
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 06-13-07
                                                              • 121

                                                              #31
                                                              You'll come back. All good cappers have bad days. Look forward to discussing next week's contests.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • imgv94
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 11-16-05
                                                                • 17192

                                                                #32
                                                                Record 2-5

                                                                YTD 7-8

                                                                Expect pags to bounce back with a solid week.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • armyoflovers
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 07-26-07
                                                                  • 714

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Man that was bad, but I'll dismiss it to early-season jitters....
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • EBone
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 08-10-05
                                                                    • 1787

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by pags11
                                                                    I stunk today guys...my bad...I let the forum down...I will get better...
                                                                    Stay the course, pags. Do not put pressure on yourself as stated above by "letting the forum down". From what I have seen in my 2 years on here, you are the best NCAA football handicapper on here. As previously stated, all good handicappers have bad days.

                                                                    Good luck and keep up the excellent work you do on here.



                                                                    E
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • hawk 5
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 09-12-06
                                                                      • 3982

                                                                      #35
                                                                      I know one thing, Michigan is a bad bet the rest of the year. Either way.
                                                                      Comment
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