Oregon vs Indiana CFP Semifinal Picks & Discussion

SBR Andy · 01-06-26, 10:06 AM

SBR's Rob Paul is going with the Hoosiers on the NCAAF Picks page:

Indiana -4 (-112)
"Indiana beat Oregon by 10 in Autzen Stadium and is 4-0 ATS against ranked teams this season. With the Heisman-winner at QB and a top-three defense, the Hoosiers are poised for another decisive win."

Fred The Hammer · 01-07-26, 12:17 AM

I can't believe its still only +3.5 with Davison out? 15 TDs and avg 7.4 per carry vs Indiana earlier. He's 30 lbs bigger then their other RBs and that power can't be replaced.

I already liked Indiana since Mendoza is pinpoint right now and the Ducks offense didn't look that great vs Texas Tech. I watched every Indiana game and I think Iowa & Ohio State both have a better secondary. We had guys open vs the Ducks earlier and they had 4 PI calls too. One obvious PI 2Q on 3rd down that wasn't called or they probably score more then 30. Indiana is just too experienced and much more mistake free then Oregon. Better QB & Coach.

Indiana 31-16

SBR Andy · 01-07-26, 12:06 PM

SBR's Mike Spector thinks the Ducks can hang and has 2 plays posted on the NCAAF Picks page.

Oregon +3.5 (-105)
"While Indiana completely dismantled Alabama 38-3 in the quarterfinals, the truth is that the Crimson Tide had been trending downward for a month. Few are seemingly giving Oregon as much credit for a dominating 23-0 win over Texas Tech, as the Red Raiders had allowed 23 combined points in its four games prior. Texas Tech also entered with the best explosive play differential in the country (plus-81)."

Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza Under 44.5 Longest Completion (-115)
"The Ducks secondary ranks sixth in yards per drop back allowed, and they held Mendoza to a long completion of 29 yards in the first meeting."

stevenash · 01-07-26, 12:18 PM

^
I agree, and I don't want Oregon to win this game.

SBR Andy · 01-09-26, 08:35 AM

SBR's Rob Paul has added a player prop to go along with his Indiana play:

WR Omar Cooper Jr. Score a Touchdown (Yes: +145)
"Oregon has a young secondary, with three freshman starters. With the Heisman winner at QB, Indiana's pass catchers should find success. Omar Cooper Jr. leads the team in targets (79), receiving yards (849), and total TDs (13). He's scored in five straight games."

SBR Andy · 01-09-26, 10:39 AM

Oregon vs Indiana betting insights from BetMGM:

Most bet props (tickets)
1. Fernando Mendoza over 208.5 passing yards -115
2. Charlie Becker over 44.5 receiving yards -115
3. Dante Moore over 224.5 passing yards -115
4. Dierre Hill jr. over 41.5 rushing yards -115
5. Fernando Mendoza over 1.5 passing touchdowns -130

Most bet players to score anytime touchdown (tickets)
1. Elijah Sarratt (IND) +110
2. Omar Cooper Jr. (IND) +145
3. Roman Hemby (IND) +120
4. Fernando Mendoza (IND) +260
5. Noah Whittington (Ore) +120

brock · 01-09-26, 01:18 PM

My take. Indiana -3.5. Seems like the obvious play here.

5918mike · 01-09-26, 05:35 PM

What makes the sweep tough? It happens more than it doesn't

brock · 01-09-26, 07:41 PM

-3 now I'M missing something. Or not.

Fred The Hammer · 01-10-26, 12:53 AM

Wow. Oregon announces their other starting RB has the flu and won't start and it still dropped from +3.5 to +3?

Why is the public so 'n stupid so often? Oregon had both coordinators out the door. Kids hurt or out thru the portal. Literally men vs boys. Louis Moore on Indiana will be 25 in a few weeks. Our RBs Black & Hemby are both 23 with 11 seasons combined

Mendoza has progressed into a franchise QB prospect. This game was NEVER going to be close

I had -3.5 and -9.5 and then saw the line go down late. Got more at -3 and -9.5. Made over $1100 which is huge for me!

Fred The Hammer · 01-10-26, 01:11 AM

I also got $220 on Indiana -5.5 @ Miami before the game. Its -7.5 now. Beck is going to get it prison style and Mendoza will pick them apart.

Charlie Becker will end up as NFL All-Pro WR. 30 years from now they'll say Jordy Nelson was a poor mans Charlie Becker

lmreNogy · 01-10-26, 06:07 AM

thanks