Sagarin College Bowl System Plays

**snapstick** · 12-14-09, 01:27 AM

CRIS has a current line of Missouri -6.5

**tblues2005** · 12-14-09, 01:32 AM

I see it with Bookmaker under the sbr lines part at Missouri -6 1/2. I am sure that the other ones will have a line up in that game soon. Thanks.

**snapstick** · 12-14-09, 01:33 AM

YW... GL to you and thanks for your posts.

**snapstick** · 12-14-09, 01:35 AM

College Football Bowl Gams and Sagarin

I guess this poster is a lier to huh goblue12? I wont respond to any more of your posts. GL with your future wagers.

Read posts 1 and 10. I can give you more examples of the record for the year he questioned if anyone would like but i really have better things to do with my time like focusing on tomorrows plays. GL

**tblues2005** · 12-14-09, 01:38 AM

Like I said you are the one that did all the homework and helped some of us here get an insight on the bowl games. I hope you have very good luck and I hope you are betting these same games that I will be doing so we either win or lose with these. I sure like our chances here starting on next Saturday.

**tblues2005** · 12-14-09, 01:39 AM

All I know it is going to be a very busy bowl season for me and I hope that this will really help my bankroll at the end of the college football season and nfl season.

**snapstick** · 12-14-09, 01:41 AM

Originally posted by tblues2005

Like I said you are the one that did all the homework and helped some of us here get an insight on the bowl games. I hope you have very good luck and I hope you are betting these same games that I will be doing so we either win or lose with these. I sure like our chances here starting on next Saturday.

GL to you and i hope this is a profitable bowl season. I really like the ML with the LSU play.

**tblues2005** · 12-14-09, 02:16 AM

I was thinking that also. I don't think Bet Jam has a money line for some of these yet though. I will wait until the game gets closer and I am sure that there will be one. Yes I put my wagers already in with both of my accounts but the Missouri game is not up yet and I am sure it will be up within the next few days. I like the Central Florida ML, Air Force ML, and Troy State ML because they are dogs and they all could win the game.

**tblues2005** · 12-14-09, 02:25 AM

This is what I got these games at for now.

SDec 19CFB [201] WYOMING +12½-120 (B+½) 5.00 SBR / 4.00
Dec 19CFB [203] CENTRAL FLORIDA +3½-130 (B+1) 5.00 SBR / 4.00 SBR
Dec 22CFB [208] OREGON STATE -1½-130 (B+1) 5.00 SBR / 4.00 SBR
Dec 23CFB [210] CALIFORNIA -2½-120 (B+½) 5.00 SBR / 4.00 SBR
Dec 24CFB [212] NEVADA -14½-120 (B+½) 5.00 SBR / 4.00 SBR
Dec 29CFB [226] MIAMI FLORIDA -2½-120 (B+½) 5.00 SBR / 4.00 SBR
Dec 31CFB [230] MISSOURI -5½-130 (B+1) 5.00 SBR / 4.00 SBR
Dec 31CFB [233] AIR FORCE +5½-130 (B+1) 5.00 SBR / 4.00 SBR
Jan 01CFB [245] LSU +3½-130 (B+1) 5.00 SBR / 4.00 SBR
Jan 01CFB [250] FLORIDA -10½-120 (B+½) 5.00 SBR / 4.00 SBR
Jan 02CFB [252] SOUTH FLORIDA -5½-130 (B+1) 5.00 SBR / 4.00 SBR
Jan 02CFB [257] ARKANSAS -7½-120 (B+½) 5.00 SBR / 4.00 SBR
Jan 04CFB [262] TCU -6½-120 (B+½) 5.00 SBR / 4.00 SBR
Jan 06CFB [265] TROY +4½-130 (B+1) 5.00 SBR / 4.00 SBR23629

Wish us luck there. I put these into my personal account with Bet Jamaica also.

**goblue12** · 12-14-09, 05:11 AM

LOL, I hit a nerve.

Have fun with your -EV system bets and "capping" games!

**Formulawiz** · 12-14-09, 08:18 AM

Originally posted by snapstick

I dont read your NFL and pro hoops thread bro so i wouldnt know . I have played this system for the past 2 years and thus my post for this year. This post has nothing to do with your post on another thread. If you would like to make a NCAAF post with this info contained in it i would be glad to post on it. At the time and date i made this post i didnt see any other poster with this same post. GL to you and next year if you would like to do the research on the plays with the info i posted i would be most gratefull, as it would save me alot of time it took me to provide this info.

I really dont have any win/loss records prior to the 2 years I have been using this system. I watched this system 3 years ago which was excellent and thats why I decided to jump in 2 years ago. If someone else has any win/loss data it would be nice to post it. I know this system has been around for many years and I have no idea who started it and how it performed prior 2006. Again I would stress to make sure the Sagarin system plays agree with your other handicapping tools.

GL to all of us.

**snapstick** · 12-14-09, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

I really dont have any win/loss records prior to the 2 years I have been using this system. I watched this system 3 years ago which was excellent and thats why I decided to jump in 2 years ago. If someone else has any win/loss data it would be nice to post it. I know this system has been around for many years and I have no idea who started it and how it performed prior 2006. Again I would stress to make sure the Sagarin system plays agree with your other handicapping tools.

GL to all of us.

**Enfuego** · 12-14-09, 12:34 PM

Posts just flat out get deleted here?

**snapstick** · 12-14-09, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by Enfuego

Posts just flat out get deleted here?

Not usually...unless the post in question is for other reasons besides contributing to the thread. GL to you and any positive posts here are welcome and i wish you luck.

**Peep** · 12-14-09, 04:17 PM

I think what Enfeugo posted that got deleted was that

1) These picks are a copy of picks made at Rx by another poster and
2) If you are going to copy another poster, you should acknowledge that or at least change the order.

See if I can deleted too.

**snapstick** · 12-14-09, 06:28 PM

I wont respond to people like this any further. Your comments are flat out rediculous and out of line.

**Willie Bee** · 12-14-09, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by Peep

I think what Enfeugo posted that got deleted was that

1) These picks are a copy of picks made at Rx by another poster and
2) If you are going to copy another poster, you should acknowledge that or at least change the order.

See if I can deleted too.

Peep, I think where you went wrong was:

1) Thinking a post got deleted. It didn't, just got moved to the Kiddie Section, and;
2) Thinking we really give a rat's ass if someone at another forum is posting the same plays.

But glad to see you came to the rescue

**Willie Bee** · 12-14-09, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by Enfuego

Posts just flat out get deleted here?

No enfuego, it didn't. It got moved to the Kiddie Section. If you think a post or poster is out of line in the future, report it. Otherwise move along and ignore the poster. Yes, it really is that simple.

**HoldEmHook!!** · 12-14-09, 08:08 PM

Snap permit a question from a capping rookie. I went to the link you had in a previous post to look at the Saragin ranks.....what color are they in....purple or blue, sorry for being trivial. I am just trying to understand.

**snapstick** · 12-15-09, 12:05 AM

Originally posted by HoldEmHook!!

Snap permit a question from a capping rookie. I went to the link you had in a previous post to look at the Saragin ranks.....what color are they in....purple or blue, sorry for being trivial. I am just trying to understand.

**The Seer** · 12-15-09, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by HoldEmHook!!

Snap permit a question from a capping rookie. I went to the link you had in a previous post to look at the Saragin ranks.....what color are they in....purple or blue, sorry for being trivial. I am just trying to understand.

the rating is in purple, the schedule rank is in black

**Flight** · 12-15-09, 12:40 AM

I remember this system was my first introduction to the poster "Machine Choice"

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/127598-bowl-system-went-10-2-last-year.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

Profitable system so far. But I still cannot play these games blindly. For instance, the first 2 picks this year I am against (I am on Fresno St and Rutgers to lead off the bowl season).

**Peep** · 12-15-09, 12:50 AM

Thanks Willie.

Given the trash posted here, I am amazed you would find a post questioning the source of a series of bets worthy of moving.

Guess a moderator has to do something to earn his keep right? To paraphrase Dylan...

"Sometimes someone asks me
if a post is easy to move
I say "yes, it is easily done,
you just pick any one and
pretend it never existed".

**THE PROFIT** · 12-15-09, 03:57 AM

This system makes great sense as I posted earlier. What I like to do is take other factors (systems, trends, angles, etc..) that also fit certain games with this system & pound those the hardest

**HoldEmHook!!** · 12-15-09, 10:54 AM

If that is the case then snapsticks numbers are wrong......Fresno St. sar-74.46,sos-76.......Wyoming sar-63.35, sos-99. On his post those were not the numbers he had for this game......I am just trying to understand....By these numbers I dont see how Wyoming could be the play

**HoldEmHook!!** · 12-15-09, 11:05 AM

Is it just coincidence that 80% of the lines are about the same as the difference as the saragin ratings between the 2 teams. for instance.......Ore st. -2.5 sar-82.63,BYU sar-79.55.....So. miss -3.5 sar-70.90,MTSU sar-68.65......UCF sar-71.99,Rutgers -2.5 sar-74.85......there are alot more.....kind of odd...

**goblue12** · 12-15-09, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by HoldEmHook!!

If that is the case then snapsticks numbers are wrong......Fresno St. sar-74.46,sos-76.......Wyoming sar-63.35, sos-99. On his post those were not the numbers he had for this game......I am just trying to understand....By these numbers I dont see how Wyoming could be the play

Two types of games...

Type 1 play: Oregon vs. Ohio State

Oregon Sagarin Rank: 5
Oregon SOS Rank: 7
Ohio State Sagarin Rank: 12
Ohio State SOS Rank: 61
Play on: Oregon (7 >>> 61)

Type 2 play: Rutgers vs. Central Florida

Rutgers Sagarin Rank: 52
Rutgers SOS Rank: 85
UCF Sagarin Rank: 62
UCF SOS Rank: 91
Play on: Rutgers (85 >>> 91)

There are 13 plays.

**masquer** · 12-15-09, 12:39 PM

thanks

**CLASSIC ROCK** · 12-15-09, 02:30 PM

Florida not a play

**PeePee** · 12-16-09, 01:04 AM

Beware of Rutgers game as the Sagarin rating has changed and Rutger is the play. Apparently due to the Navy/Army game.
Also, Troy / C. Mich rating had changed. The play should be C. Mich.
FYI for those who interested. These are Sagarin ratings.

**DrStale** · 12-16-09, 01:16 AM

A little lost here as to why snapstick hasn't commented on the lengthy analysis goblue posted. You said the record was 7-1 and said to post conflicting data if someone had it. He then had a lengthy write-up that appears to show that the real record is 7-9, with much more factual backing than snapstick had. Snapstick either ignored this or basically responded that he was "getting attacked."

Am I missing something here?

**snapstick** · 12-16-09, 03:24 AM

I will update the plays on Wednesday since it appears there might be some slight changes in the SOS and Sagarin rankings this past week.

**THE PROFIT** · 12-16-09, 04:44 AM

Originally posted by HoldEmHook!!

Is it just coincidence that 80% of the lines are about the same as the difference as the saragin ratings between the 2 teams. for instance.......Ore st. -2.5 sar-82.63,BYU sar-79.55.....So. miss -3.5 sar-70.90,MTSU sar-68.65......UCF sar-71.99,Rutgers -2.5 sar-74.85......there are alot more.....kind of odd...

No, it's not coincidence. 90% of the lines from LVSC will be the diff between Sagarin ratings with 3.19 added for HF advantage. Here there is no HF so they should be pretty close to the diff. One that sticks out to me is VT should be about a 10 pt fav over TN, but vegas opened it at 4. Why? cause they know SEC will beat ACC. People are going to jump all over VT at -4 & -4' and get their asses handed to them when UT lays a smackdown on 'em!

**snapstick** · 12-16-09, 01:29 PM

Updated Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:

My lines posted are the opening lines from the book i use.

There were several changes regarding Sagarin Rank's and SOS's.

There were 2 games deleted after the final Sagarin update. If you already played the 2 deleted games you can hedge the wager and just lose the juice if you care to. (Florida and South Florida)

There were 2 games in which the side we were playing switched to the other team as the play. If you already played the game double your wager and play the other side if you care to. (Central Florida and Troy are now a fade)

There was 1 game added. (Ohio State/Oregon)

Good luck

and if you see any discreprncies let us know so we can make sure everyone is on the same page. I suppose next season i shouldnt post the plays until after the Army/Navy game..

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-62) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-76)
Play #2: Rutgers -3 (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-85) vs. Central Florida (Sagarin Rating-62, SOS Rank-91)
Play #3: Oregon State -1 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-15) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-20) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-81)
Play #5: Nevada -14.5 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 86) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-89, SOS Rank-94)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2.5 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-16) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-37, SOS Rank-71)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-89) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-92)
Play #8: Missouri -6 (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-56) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: LSU +3 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-18) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-80)
Play #10: Oregon -3.5 (Sagarin Rating-5, SOS Rank-7) vs. Ohio State (Sagarin Rating-12, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Arkansas -7 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-66)
Play #12: C. Michigan -4 (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-107) vs. Troy (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-110)
Play #13: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-82) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

**tblues2005** · 12-16-09, 01:51 PM

I already put these bets in with mine and now I will have to change it now. Thanks before the game has started or I would have been in trouble here.