Sagarin College Bowl System Plays

**snapstick** · 12-09-09, 12:16 PM

FYI: These selections are not from my handicapping....these plays are the Sagarin SOS formula. Using the top 60 Sagarin rated teams, FADE every team whose SOS rating is 60 or worse UNLESS THEY ARE PLAYING A TEAM WITH A SOS EVEN HIGHER THAN THEIRS.

2006: 7-1, 88%
2007: 11-1, 92%
2008: 12-5, 71%
(30-7 81%)

I have completed the leg work and the above plays are what i came up with. Comments are welcome and if think i made a mistake let me know.

**snapstick** · 12-09-09, 12:18 PM

I will edit the first post to add each team's Sargarin rating and SOS rank shortly.

**snapstick** · 12-09-09, 02:07 PM

If you see any mistakes let me know for the benefit of all of us but i checked my numbers a couple times and i believe this is accurate.

**snapstick** · 12-09-09, 03:17 PM

For those interested here is a link for the explanation and the Sagarin Rankings.

http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cfsend.htm

**snapstick** · 12-09-09, 03:49 PM

I will be adding 2 plays in post #1 that qualify and i didnt have as official system plays.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-09-09, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

Here are my NCAAF Bowl Selections i will be playing for 2009-2010. All of these posted plays are final and their will be no deletions or additions. Good Luck and happy bowling. Oh yeah, i forgot to add...I wouldn't recommend fading these plays as this Sagarin System has done well in the past.

The listed lines are what i received at the time i placed my wagers.

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (SOS Rank-57) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-74)
Play #2: UCF +2.5 (SOS Rank-85) vs. Rutgers (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-100)
Play #3: Oregon State -1.5 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-21) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-17) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-35, SOS Rank-73)
Play #5: Miami, Fla -2 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-18) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-68)
Play #6: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-92) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-97)
Play #7: Missouri PK (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-50) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-79)
Play #8: LSU +2.5 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-16) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-83)
Play #9: Arkansas -7.5 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-50, SOS Rank-61)
Play #10: Troy +4 (SOS Rank-106) vs. C. Michigan (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-111)
Play #11: Florida -10 (Sagarin Rating-2, SOS Rank-27) vs. Cincinati (Sagarin Rating-6, SOS Rank-63)
Play #12: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-84) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

I can see several games that I agree with, but I will pas on Wyoming, Air Force, UCF and Troy. As a matter of fact, we may end up fading Wyoming.

**vinnie** · 12-09-09, 04:06 PM

These plays look exactly the same as posted by another poster at another forum....so i was just curious...

**snapstick** · 12-09-09, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by vinnie

These plays look exactly the same as posted by another poster at another forum....so i was just curious...

Thats probably because im not the only person posting this system.

**vinnie** · 12-09-09, 04:16 PM

Cool...can you tell me where you get your SOS ranking??? I like to look them up for other teams as well...thanks..

**snapstick** · 12-09-09, 04:22 PM

Final Sagarin Bowl System Plays:

Play #1: Wyoming +10.5 (Sagarin Rating-99, SOS Rank-57) vs. Fresno State (Sagarin Rating-53, SOS Rank-74)
Play #2: UCF +2.5 (Sagarin Rating-61, SOS Rank-85) vs. Rutgers (Sagarin Rating-52, SOS Rank-100)
Play #3: Oregon State -1.5 (Sagarin Rating-15, SOS Rank-21) vs. BYU (Sagarin Rating-29, SOS Rank-77)
Play #4: California -3 (Sagarin Rating-33, SOS Rank-17) vs. Utah (Sagarin Rating-35, SOS Rank-73)
Play #5: Nevada -14 (Sagarin rating-56, SOS Rank 82) vs.SMU (Sagarin rating-88, SOS Rank-90)
Play #6: Miami, Fla -2 (Sagarin Rating-11, SOS rank-18) vs. Wisconsin (Sagarin Rating-36, SOS Rank-68)
Play #7: Air Force +5 (Sagarin Rating-55, SOS Rank-92) vs. Houston (Sagarin Rating-46, SOS Rank-97)
Play #8: Missouri PK (Sagarin Rating-47, SOS Rank-50) vs. Navy (Sagarin Rating-54, SOS Rank-79)
Play #9: LSU +2.5 (Sagarin Rating-10, SOS Rank-16) vs. Penn State (Sagarin Rating-20, SOS Rank-83)
Play #10: Arkansas -7.5 (Sagarin Rating-16, SOS Rank-13) vs. E. Carolina (Sagarin Rating-50, SOS Rank-61)
Play #11: Troy +4 (Sagarin Rating-69, SOS Rank-106) vs. C. Michigan (Sagarin Rating-38, SOS Rank-111)
Play #12: Florida -10 (Sagarin Rating-2, SOS Rank-27) vs. Cincinati (Sagarin Rating-6, SOS Rank-63)
Play #13: S. Florida -3 (Sagarin Rating-51, SOS Rank-62) vs. N. Illinois (Sagarin Rating-87, SOS Rank-121)
Play #14: TCU -7 (Sagarin Rating-4, SOS Rank-84) vs. Boise State (Sagarin Rating-8, SOS Rank-98)

I didnt include the date of the games but they are in order of games played from top to bottom. ie, Play #1 is the first game played and so on.

**snapstick** · 12-09-09, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by vinnie

Cool...can you tell me where you get your SOS ranking??? I like to look them up for other teams as well...thanks..

Read post #5

**vinnie** · 12-09-09, 04:25 PM

Where can i find SOS rank for Texas, Texas A&M etc...???

**vinnie** · 12-09-09, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by snapstick

Read post #5

My bad..i see it now...thanks..

**snapstick** · 12-09-09, 05:24 PM

Your welcome my friend. Looks like we have more than one post with these plays. As long as we all are on the same page thats that matters. GL and all questions and comments are welcome.

**snapstick** · 12-09-09, 05:30 PM

I really dont think the line matters at the time you make your play. The system doesnt specify what line to play the game at it just specifies to play the appropriate team so dont worry so much what line you get but obviously the better you get the line to favor your side the better. You cant really argue the record the past 3 seasons though. It has hit at a alarming 30-7, 81% over the past 3 years and i have heard it was hitting at the same rate even before that but i dont have the official records to prove that. Any system that has a track record of 81% looks good but remember it doesnt mean this year it will provide the same results. Good Luck!

**Child_Please** · 12-09-09, 05:30 PM

Snapstick here are the plays in which i came up with the system

Ore st
Nev
Cal
Miami
Mizzou
Auburn
Lsu
Fla
South Fla
Arkansas
TCU

we are different on a few

- Fresno sos is worse but they are ranked in top 60 and wyoming isn't
- C mich sos schedule is worse but botht teams arent ranked in top 60
- The Houston pick looks right i missed that one
- Ucf does has better sos but neither ranked in top 60

Im not sure if i am completly correct, but lets try and get the correct plays for the system so we can get down and make dough

**snapstick** · 12-09-09, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by Child_Please

Snapstick here are the plays in which i came up with the system

Ore st
Nev
Cal
Miami
Mizzou
Auburn
Lsu
Fla
South Fla
Arkansas
TCU

we are different on a few

- Fresno sos is worse but they are ranked in top 60 and wyoming isn't
- C mich sos schedule is worse but botht teams arent ranked in top 60
- The Houston pick looks right i missed that one
- Ucf does has better sos but neither ranked in top 60

Im not sure if i am completly correct, but lets try and get the correct plays for the system so we can get down and make dough

1. Only 1 team has to be ranked in the sagarin top 60.
2. C. Michigan IS ranked in the top 60. They are ranked #38.
3. Rutgers is ranked #52 in the sagarin rankings. C. Florida doesnt have to be in the top 60 we are fading Rutgers because they are in the top 60 and their SOS is 100 and C. Florida has a lower SOS so Rutgers is the FADE play. Again only 1 team has to be in the top 60 in the sagarin rankings to make it a play.

**snapstick** · 12-09-09, 05:41 PM

Believe me these are the plays. If you dont agree dont play them but THESE plays do qualify as plays. GL

**Child_Please** · 12-09-09, 06:15 PM

I believe you i just ran through the number threw it together. i thought both had to be in top 60. thanks for cleraing it up. GL

**Cougar Bait** · 12-09-09, 06:43 PM

Looks good Snapstick. I will be on some of these as well. GL this bowl season.

**dvb02** · 12-09-09, 06:53 PM

Thanks Snap. Your work is appreciated.

**snapstick** · 12-09-09, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by dvb02

Thanks Snap. Your work is appreciated.

**snapstick** · 12-10-09, 12:41 AM

This is a solid system that has shown outstanding results in the past. I will tail all of the plays as i did last year and if you do you wont be disappointed.

**snapstick** · 12-10-09, 12:48 AM

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

Looks good Snapstick. I will be on some of these as well. GL this bowl season.

**Kustac** · 12-10-09, 03:36 AM

thanks man

**Shortstop** · 12-10-09, 04:54 AM

Very nice! Best of Luck!

**WhatAboutMeBitch** · 12-10-09, 07:49 AM

seems like a decent plan/system

**snapstick** · 12-10-09, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by Kustac

thanks man

Originally posted by Shortstop

Very nice! Best of Luck!

Originally posted by WhatAboutMeBitch

seems like a decent plan/system

**tblues2005** · 12-10-09, 03:00 PM

Thanks for these. I do like this system and I hope it does well this season.

**Munson15** · 12-10-09, 03:05 PM

I had heard of this system, and I appreciate you doing the work and posting the plays. Thanks and GL.

**M.W.** · 12-10-09, 03:21 PM

Thanks for posting. Hope it works again this year.

**Shahbucks** · 12-10-09, 03:23 PM

Keep up the work bro.

**BET THE HOOK** · 12-10-09, 03:40 PM

Thanks man. I am on board too.

**snapstick** · 12-11-09, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by tblues2005

Thanks for these. I do like this system and I hope it does well this season.

Originally posted by Munson15

I had heard of this system, and I appreciate you doing the work and posting the plays. Thanks and GL.

Originally posted by M.W.

Thanks for posting. Hope it works again this year.

Originally posted by Shahbucks

Keep up the work bro.

Originally posted by BET THE HOOK

Thanks man. I am on board too.

GL to all of u as well. I look foward to this system. Some might say they dont like some or a few of the plays and thats fine. I play all of them and 2 years ago i was 1 play (loss) from hitting a 12 team parlay. What i do is play them all for a set amount and i also play them all in a parlay just incase the system has a perfect year.