Wal's College Football Week #14

**Cougar Bait** · 11-29-09, 11:38 AM

CMU, Pitt, WVU, Florida, Hawaii look good...Nebraska +10 at home...

Where is South Florida vs. UConn?

**BigdaddyQH** · 11-29-09, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by wal66

Program Generated Lines

Arkansas St -13.5 -10

Oregon -7 -8

Central Michigan -5.5 NL

West Virginia -4 PK

Cincinnati -5.5 +1

Houston -3.5 -1

Fresno St -8.5 +3

LA Tech -11.5 -16

Boise St -40 -44

USC -3.5 -8

Florida -3.5 -5

California -6 -6

Florida Atlantic -2.5 +2

Texas -10 -15.5

Georgia Tech -3 -1

Wisconsin -10.5

-13

Those are the openers. The program did not get all that close this week. So either you can hit big, or it is time to adjust the program. GL either way.

**Cougar Bait** · 11-29-09, 06:20 PM

Is Nebraska seriously going to get 15.5?

**ImBettor** · 11-29-09, 07:24 PM

BigDaddy, I posted this in last week's thread, not sure if you noticed it.

one last question for you middlers,

say you bet a game at +9 expecting it to move to +4ish. If it only moved to, say, +8, do you still bet that game at +8. What is the point where the vig is just too much to take? 1 point? 2 points?

got one more hypothetical. Say there was hypothetical bookie who offered a game at Team A -3 (suppose it's the local team and a lot of money will likely be placed on them). Say you make an extremely large wager on Team A and in order to balance the action he drastically moved the line to Team A -7. You then happily place Team B +7. Is this a reasonable occurrence? Is it feasible?

**wal66** · 11-29-09, 07:43 PM

Ok, I don't have my write-up on the Florida game prepared yet but I just went to my site and they had the line already up at Florida -4.5. I never get lines this early on any next week games and I already know I like Florida -7 so I am down on Florida at this opening line and will add more as the week goes along.

Play:

Florida -4.5 ($550 to win $500)

**TheBetBuysDanK** · 11-29-09, 08:21 PM

wow, wal. a 500 dollar play? you like them that much? I may be on it as well. all year ive been thinking 'bama, but i watched both games close this week I thought Florida looked like a superior club (and i dont think auburn is THAT much better than FSU)

my $$$ will go on the gators. BOL

**wal66** · 11-29-09, 08:40 PM

Dank, without getting into my write-up material too much i will give some of my thoughts. Alabama certainly has a chance here. In my opinion if they can ABSOLUTELY dedicate themselves to pounding it up the gut they can wear Florida down in the middle, control the clock and could come away with a victory. I see that as the best chance for Alabama.

I think Florida will load the box, roll over the top coverage on Jones and force McElroy to find other recievers. We already know what Florida is gonna do and Alabama knows what Florida is gonna do. I think the determination of Florida gets this done. I already knew before this line ever came out I liked Florida at -7. I actually think Florida wins this game by 10+ but -7 is conservatively where I set my personal line. So in my mind I have tremendous value here and will hit it again later in the week as well.

I NEVER try and sell someone (other than joking around with JJ) on a pick and I'm not doing that here. I am confident in what I know Florida is capable of and I am confident in where I set this line. As for the $500 goes I generally play games for more than I post as units here. I went ahead and showed an amount this time because I am that confident in the game. If I don't win this game I'll be more upset at not getting an opportunity to repeat than I will be about the money.

**bigcat1** · 11-30-09, 07:21 AM

mr wall, i have never seen you wager that much on a game, i know you hit the ucf game thank you, that win covered my other losses, lol...but if your on them that much...i too will place money on florida, which i was kinda leaning that way too, but i believe auburn was kinda passed on by alabama thinking bout florida, i believe alabama is alot better than they played,

(by the way i don't drink)

**wal66** · 11-30-09, 07:49 AM

Cat's I never drink either, never have. Tried it and just makes no sense I'm a one and done kind of guy and by done I mean one beer and I'm singing happy birthday to a crowded returaunt kind of done.

Alabama is certainly better than they played several games this year. The simple fact that they have played so many times this year and not looked impressive yet still managed to win every single game says a lot for just how good they actually are. By all accounts this game is a coinflip. The fact that Florida opened as the favorite of more than a FieldGoal is basically public persception in large part. Even though I am heavy on Florida I am fully aware that Florida will have to perform at a very high level, play basically mistake free football and a long the way Alabama will have to make a slip or two.

I have watched Alabama several times this year albeit fewer than I have watched Florida. While Alabama certainly has playmakers I truly feel Florida has more. When everything is clicking Florida's main weakness is offensive play calling. This is and has been a concern every game this year. IF and that is a big IF the players reach for that extra rung, dig out that extra effort the Florida should win this contest with some points to spare.

I know I generally say if you find a better game then by all means go that way. It is very true this weekend however. There obviously aren't as many games to choose from this weekend but there are softer lines out there than the Florida/Alabama game. I am on them heavy but part of this no matter how much I try and avoid it is loyalty to my colors. I just need everyone to understand this.

**bigcat1** · 11-30-09, 08:08 AM

my wife loves tim tebow, i just hope i find a reason too, she asked me if i was betting on the game, i told her (that would be one of the games) nothing wrong with loyalty or being a homer, but in this case i believe its the right call, whats the most points you would give up -5.5 or up to a touchdown

**BigdaddyQH** · 11-30-09, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by ImBettor

BigDaddy, I posted this in last week's thread, not sure if you noticed it.

got one more hypothetical. Say there was hypothetical bookie who offered a game at Team A -3 (suppose it's the local team and a lot of money will likely be placed on them). Say you make an extremely large wager on Team A and in order to balance the action he drastically moved the line to Team A -7. You then happily place Team B +7. Is this a reasonable occurrence? Is it feasible?

It happens. That is the whole object of a middle. There are several ways this can happen. Dirst, many "locals" play the lead, so they can adjust their lines and get an extra point or two with their players. So if a local likes team A -3, he may go down heavy on it, driving the line up. He gives his players team A -6 or 7, giving him a middle.

Next, there is the old "bait and switch" which was used successfully in the Florida-LSU game. The wiseguys floated a little money on LSU and started the Tebow may not play rumor. The line came crashing down. As soon as it hit -6.5, they dumped big time on Florida, driving the line all the way up to 11.5. Then they dumped big time on LSU, lowering the line. They hit both ways by creating their own middle.

Books will also determine a line on certain games. Notice that last weeks USC-UCLA game never climbed over 13 points? Notice that some lines do not budge? This is because the book, for some reason, has decided to freeze the line.

Now getting back to hypothetical. Books normally will refuse action from anyone trying to middle. It is kind of an unwritten rule with them. The best way for a book to make money is to try and middle certain games as explained above, play ties lose on all wagers ( and eliminate any 1/2 point lines), and refuse any potential "middle" plays from his players. Tis is how most books operate.

**HoldEmHook!!** · 11-30-09, 03:16 PM

Wal my friend I wish you the best of luck except in the Fla. pick.... there is no way I could ever root or bet against my beloved Crimson Tide. So dont go big against Bama, They are far better as a dog than a favorite.......Bama 26 Fla 23......ROLL TIDE!!!!!

**BigdaddyQH** · 11-30-09, 03:34 PM

The Florida-'Bama game is going to depend on how quickly the Tide recovers from various injuries sustained in the Auburn game. Right now Ingram is listed as questionable against Florida with a bad hip. This is bad news for 'Bama because even if he can physically play, how good will he be? The line is now up to 6 in some places. Things do not look real good for Alabama right now.

**HoldEmHook!!** · 11-30-09, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

The Florida-'Bama game is going to depend on how quickly the Tide recovers from various injuries sustained in the Auburn game. Right now Ingram is listed as questionable against Florida with a bad hip. This is bad news for 'Bama because even if he can physically play, how good will he be? The line is now up to 6 in some places. Things do not look real good for Alabama right now.

does the names richardson, upchurch, upshaw, mean anything..Saban proved he would sit an in-effective player, so with the depth we have at most positions we should be fine from a health stand point...Bamas' defense matches up well against Fla. contain Tebow and all else falls into place....Dont let past games fool you, Bama has had this game in thier sights since last december when they where winning after three quarters of football and tebow made some great plays in the fourth that we could not answer...this saturday will be different...Bama will finish!!!!!

**lolyoutard** · 11-30-09, 07:30 PM

How are you not more concerned with the number of sacks Florida has allowed this year? Last year the game played very close statistically and Tebow had to play a nearly perfect game and execute several clutch third downs. Florida played better in the redzone and that turned out to be the difference. This year Bama is improved at almost every position and Florida is worse all around including at offensive coordinator. The Bama players, coaches, and fans have been waiting for this game for 364 days come kickoff and they are super hungry and focused. Florida fans, players, and coahces are overconfident and and have a false sense of entitlement (see your bet). Tebow will be running for his life the whole game and turn the ball over more than once. I really, really, really hate your bet. Florida is about to get taken to the woodshed.

**wal66** · 11-30-09, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by lolyoutard

How are you not more concerned with the number of sacks Florida has allowed this year? Last year the game played very close statistically and Tebow had to play a nearly perfect game and execute several clutch third downs. Florida played better in the redzone and that turned out to be the difference. This year Bama is improved at almost every position and Florida is worse all around including at offensive coordinator. The Bama players, coaches, and fans have been waiting for this game for 364 days come kickoff and they are super hungry and focused. Florida fans, players, and coahces are overconfident and and have a false sense of entitlement (see your bet). Tebow will be running for his life the whole game and turn the ball over more than once. I really, really, really hate your bet. Florida is about to get taken to the woodshed.

The beautiful thing is, there are two sides to every game. I need plenty of people on your ide. i can get down more on Florida if enough of you bring this line back lower than where i already have it.

Seriously, I don't ask anyone to follow my selections. I don't tell anyone I am right. I don't get off on thinking I have loyal and devoted readers that tune in each and every week just to see where I am leading them. I don't care about that kind of stuff, I post what I am thinking about games. I tell you why I am on a certain team and whatever you do is up to you as it should be. I dom't make claims that I am right and anything anyone else tells you is wrong. I don't do any of these things because I don't have anymore information than is available to anyone else.

You like Alabama and I say good. There is substantial reasons for a lot of alabama love here. It won't change my opinion about this game nor will it force me to lay some off but I would be a fool if I didn't admit that Alabama has a very real opportunity here.

**wal66** · 11-30-09, 07:59 PM

I don't know how many games I will post this week. I don't know if I will be able to get around to doing write-ups or not. I got selected to do my civic duty today and start a week long trial tomorrow.

**HoldEmHook!!** · 11-30-09, 08:26 PM

Wal, I take it by your avatar and the loyalty you show Fla. that you are a Florida man. I love the old Buccaneer logo for nostalgia purposes...but ROLL TIDE ROLL!!!!

P.S I appreciate your hard work and knowledge capping games...and value your oppinion

**wal66** · 11-30-09, 08:30 PM

Holdem, born and raised 30 minutes from the Swamp. Little town just on the outskirts of Gainesville called Newberry.

My first love in the pros though is Dallas. been a Cowboys fan since i was like 10 years old and started liking football. Didn't start liking the Bucs till I was about 13.

**lolyoutard** · 11-30-09, 08:49 PM

So, basically you are just betting for fun and your gut says Florida. That's cool and I didn't mean to offend you with my analysis nor was I accusing you of anything you wrote in your 2nd paragraph. Just thought I would throw out some reasons to be on Bama this week and didn't consider you might not want that in your thread. I wasn't trying to make you change you mind. I'm way to smart to think I could do that to anyone.

Just saying that Florida has an issue giving up sacks and Bama has a great pass rush. Also that last year these teams played to a draw practically and that Bama has improved while it seems Florida has regressed. I personally think this game could turn out a lot like the one a decade ago. No one gave Bama a snow ball's chance in hell and they came out and just stomped Florida. Ill be on Bama money line.

**romanowski** · 11-30-09, 09:14 PM

Florida will skullkfuk the Tide

will be worse than last year

**wal66** · 11-30-09, 09:27 PM

I wouldn't waste my time or anyone else's time by posting if I was betting for FUN. If I were to post an opinion it would be stated as an opinion and I wouldn't insult anyones intelligence by placing a wager on an opinion.

As for the match-up. Against common opponents this season Florida has averaged 31 ppg and allowed 11 ppg. Alabama has averaged 29 ppg and allowed 11 ppg. For the season overall Florida has averaged 37 ppg and allowed an average of 10 ppg. Alabama has averaged 32 ppg and and allowed and average of 11 ppg. Now Alabama has played a strength of schedule that is 1.5 points higher than has Florida.

As you can see by the numbers above it is as I stated earlier, there is plenty of reason for people to like Alabama in this spot.

Intangibles are something that you can find in stats. Florida has experience. Florida has senior leadership and Florida has in their minds that they are a team of destiny. Alabama certainly has revenge as a leading motivator but is that enough? Alabama is set to be the team to beat for the next couple of years and I truly believe this is the case. I also believe Florida right now is still the tea, to beat and will be able to what their goal has been ever since the whistle blew in last years National title game

Oh and for the record. I never mind anyone voicing their opinions about any game I am on. This site and especially my thread is open to one and all to share their opinions and information. Just because I respond or counter does not mean I don't want your opinion. I take pride in what I do but I don't have an ego about it.

**wal66** · 11-30-09, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by romanowski

Florida will skullkfuk the Tide

will be worse than last year

My pal Romo as always, poetic analysis.

**lolyoutard** · 11-30-09, 11:01 PM

Originally posted by romanowski

Florida will skullkfuk the Tide

will be worse than last year

I wonder where I got the idea that Florida was overconfident with a false sense of entitlement? Seriously this sort of attitude is rampant among gators and without a doubt has, and is going to effect this team in their preparation and focus. Alabama is the better team, with the better coach, and will be playing and preparing with a sense of urgency and desperation. The only question to me is how much will Urban cry and when will tebow start yelling at people. If we are really lucky we might even see another copycat halftime rant. Can't wait for Saturday!

**HoldEmHook!!** · 11-30-09, 11:42 PM

Originally posted by romanowski

Florida will skullkfuk the Tide

will be worse than last year

Put your sbr points where your mouth is I have 70 SBR points that says Bama wins.... straight up

**romanowski** · 12-01-09, 12:22 AM

fuktards and their points lmao. sorry dont give a shit about points

your bookies appreciate your donation

and to the idiot that thinks a fans confidence resonates the actual teams preparation...go buy a brain

**lolyoutard** · 12-01-09, 01:06 AM

Originally posted by romanowski

fuktards and their points lmao. sorry dont give a shit about points

your bookies appreciate your donation

and to the idiot that thinks a fans confidence resonates the actual teams preparation...go buy a brain

Pretty well known fact that college kids read the internet. Especially when people are talking about them. How could it not effect them? Would anyone really work as hard to prepare play someone everyone says they are better then? Obviously not. Or did you assume the players live in a little football bubble where they can just eat, sleep, practice, and watch game film?

In the brain market yours must be OTC. That's the only thing that could explain your childish name calling and piss poor understanding of how bookies work. Go read a book.

**romanowski** · 12-01-09, 02:26 AM

lol Ill book your action

I understand how booking working there pal lol

best of luck on your plays this saturday

**lolyoutard** · 12-01-09, 03:03 AM

I feel like you are a level now.

Anyways though back to the main point.

Sacks

Alabama 31

Florida 34

Sacks Allowed:

Alabama 14

Florida 28

**DarkNite** · 12-01-09, 10:06 AM

Can someone explain? I do not understand that Florida is -3.5 (program generated line) vs the book is -5.5, we supposed to take Alabama, right? If the program is good enough, why we bet Florida -5.5 or more than -3.5?

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-01-09, 10:30 AM

There is one thing that a computer can not do, and that is measure human emotion and response. So computer program generated lines can work for some games, but not for a game that is this emotional. Alabama is going for revenge, after losing to Florida last year when they had the game won. In other words, they chocked it away. Then, to complicate matters, they got their asses handed to them by Utah in the Sugar Bowl. Florida is going for their first undefeated season and their third National Championship in 4 years. Meyer and Tebow want this team to be considered one of the all time greats, but they can not be if they do not have an undefeated season. So the emotions in this game are huge. If anything, Florida has come on in their past 5 games, while 'Bama has staggered to the finish line against Tennessee and Auburn.

This game goes to the team that wants it more. The first 3 quarters will be entertaining, but the 4th quarter will decide this game, once again, as it should. This will be a great game to watch, and a great game to pass on, wagering wise. Even the total (around 43) is going to be a tough call.

**wal66** · 12-01-09, 07:13 PM

As for the program BigDaddy explained it as good as anyone ever could. Program is raw numbers which are subjective at best in a game of this nature.

I will take it one further when it comes to the program. The way I use my program technically this game would be an atuomatic pass untill the line reached 7. I generally require +/- 3.5 points of value to even consider researching a game.

Now to the important stuff. Unless you are a Gator fan or an Alabama fan you have no business betting this game until this line climbs to Florida -7. At 7 I personally would still take Florida but onoy because I said they would win by atleast 10. At 7 though Alabama has some value. Anything can happen in this matchup. Florida could roll or they could even get rolled. It all depends on who cracks first. There are plenty of better wagering opporortunities this week than Florida/Alabama.

**scarecrow717** · 12-01-09, 09:11 PM

Wal,

I got San Jose State +23 against LA tech. Your program sure agrees with this call. I see LA tech winning, but not by more than 3 touchdowns...

like you, I usually don't bet on big lines like this, any thoughts?

**wal66** · 12-02-09, 07:58 PM

scarecrow. I have had jury duty this week and haven't capped the games yet. I will be working on them the next two days. If I develope an opinion on this game I will come back and post for you.