Wal's College Football Week #14

[twentyonekid]

Florida will skullkfuk the Tide

will be worse than last year

put away the crack pipe romo,they were lucky to win last year against a young and never supposed to be there team and barely escaped......this is a year later and the TIDE is poised to kick some GATOR ASS so i hope you don't lose too much on fag boy teabow and the GATORS

[dice]

Florida should win big (projection 35-10). I think Texas will win in the final two minutes by less than a touchdown (projection 16-10).

[BadNina]

Roll Tide Wally!!!!!!!!

[Cougar Bait]

If I play it, I'll be taking the points. Hi Nina

[strike3]

So Wal, did you vote guilty or not guilty?

[BECHunter]

The UA / UF game is very very even. This one will be won in the trenches and I like Bama's chances pounding the rock and also the D-line's chances to keep Tebow in check. Dunlap being out for UF really hurts their d-line. He is a definite first rounder. UF has Tebow so they definitely have a good chance of winning. I personally don't see Ingram being shut down two weeks in a row. He has been a beast all year with the exception of the Auburn game. I personally think he took a shot very early and played injured. Richardson is more than capable of stepping in. Julio is starting to hit his stride as well. On the other side Hernandez will give some match up problems. I like the Bama's DB's matching up with UF's receivers (see UF / LSU game). This one is too close to call.

Roll Tide!

[BadNina]

Hi Cougar Bait. I have been called a cougar all week. ROAR!!!!1

[JP10]

Wal, I like the C michigan -13 even though your program showed at -5.5. They have much better off and should win the game outright. I gonna go big on this one and like to hear your comment.

Thanks

[Cougar Bait]

Hi Cougar Bait. I have been called a cougar all week. ROAR!!!!1

Nice. Send me a PM. Or your favorite photo.

[BigdaddyQH]

Florida should win big (projection 35-10). I think Texas will win in the final two minutes by less than a touchdown (projection 16-10).

Get a new computer, or projector, or whatever makes those projections. You may have the right endings to the games, but your computers got the teams mixed up. If anything, Florida wins the close one and Texas wins big.

[wal66]

Florida/Alabama is certainly generating a lot of debate and opinions as is expected. I hope none of us are disappointed not in the outcome but the game as a whole. Win or lose I hope we get the epic battle by all accounts is has the potential to be. I don't know why I still feel as if this might end up a little anti-climatic though. I know with the recent news of Dunlop being out for Florida only adds to the hopes of one and all Tide fans and for somewhat good reasons. Defensively Florida is very deep and extremely talented. While an obvious first rounder and a hit to the defense from a starting persepctive I think Dunlop's absence can be handled and accounted for. Dunlop's main function was as a pass rusher and unless Bama changes their entire makeup pass rushing won't be super critical. Bama will want to be physical and pound our front and if they are capable of doing that with or without Dunlop would never have made the difference.

I said I liked Florida by 10+ and I still like Florida by that same margin. My bet was in Sunday I can't waver now. It's what I think not what I want anyone else to think. Everyone has to make up his or her own mind and go with what you hoestly feel is the best situation for your money to be in. Personally, your money would be better at risk on several other games.

[BECHunter]

Not a single team has scored over 24 on UA all year. Doubt Florida will score 35. Florida only scored 13 on LSU.

[wal66]

So Wal, did you vote guilty or not guilty?

Guilty on assault.
Guilty on criminal mischief.
Guilty on aggrevated assault on a police officer.


The first two were easy the aggrevated assault on the police officer was very tough for us. We actually deliberated for over 3 hours on this on verdict. There are 7 criteria that have to be met in order to render a guilty verdict on this count and we were agreed on all but one that took almost the entire time to hammer out.

It dealt with the officer feeling threatened for his own personal safety by the actions or words of the defendant.

The police officer put two rounds in the chest of the defendant after being called to a burglary in progress call that turned out to be a domestic dispute. Upon reaching the residence the officer spotted a female inside a bedroom bracing up against a closed door clutching a baby in one hand and a butcher knife in the other. The officer heard pounding and saw the door was being jolted from the other side. The officer enters the appartment clears the kitchen, clears the livingroom and spots at the end of the hall the defendant pressing against the bedroom door some 18 feet away. Testimony by the officer said he shouted "Police, hands up" and then repeated a second time. Officer said defendant turned at which time the officer saw a knife in the defendants hand and the officer said he shouted "Drop the Knife" twice. The officer said the defendant completed his turn and said "come on man" and then moved forward at which time the officer put two rounds in the defendant.

The problem was through testimony it was obvious the defendant wasn't telling the whole truth. It was also pretty evident that the police weren't being completely honest either. I mean let's face it if we were to find the defendant not guilty of the aggrevated assault on the police officer then the defendant has a very good case in a civil suit against the police department.

I had a problem with the Crime Scene officers testimoy as to where the 2 spent 40 cal. cassings were in relation to where the officer said he shot the defendant. During jury selections we were asked if any of us owned guns and not surprisingly all the jury members selected do not own guns. I guess if we were ignorant about how guns opperate then it helped both the defense and the prosecution. Anyways not owning a gun and not understanding the physics or the opperations of the projectiles aren't the same thing.

Also I had a problem because this officer even though prior to entering the dwelliing appeared to act appropiately once inside and noticing that there was a closed door between the defendant and the victim had an opportunity to use a tasser instead of his firearm. It seemed that the officer over.reacted got too close to the defendant giving himself no option but to shoot.

I would have remained deadlocked if I hadn't finally noticed in one of the crimescene photos some blood splatter on the wall that was in evidence due to the picture but never brought out in open court testimony. There were smudges of blood on the wall that could be explained easily enough but the splatters on the wall could only have been made in the defendant was actually closer to the entrance of the hallway rather than at the very end of the hallway.

This could have been cleared up easily enough if the prosecution had done a better job in the courtroom. There were so many mistakes made both by the prosecution and the defense attourney. Both parties tried tricks rather than logic to work the jurors over which was really sad.

The defendant was guilty according to the actual law but the officer has some culpability by acting too hastily. The officer wasn't on trial in this case though and as jurors we couldn't anticipate or bring anything not in evidence into out decision making.

[wal66]

I've looked at both games tonight. The program likes Arkansas St but the numbers are a little less favorable. they still suggest Arkansas St but not by as much as the program does.

As for the Oregon St/Oregon game the numbers and the program are pretty much dead on. The program likes Oregon by 7 and the numbers suggest Oregon by 6.

Motivation is a factor in both games. Lack of motivation for either team in the early game Arky St/ Western Kentucky and major motivation on both sides in the Oregon St/Oregon game.

I would like to think that since both teams seasons are over after tonights game that Western kentucky could muster up a little more fight in them to not finish a completely winless season at home against a team that is beatable. I'm obviously grasping at straws here trying to justify even considering this game.

I can't bet either tonight. I have some leans but these are not plays.

Leans:

Western Kentucky +7.5
Oregon St +9.5 (would suggest buying the hook here if not available at +10)


Official Play:
Western Kentucky/Oregon St
2-Team 7-point teaser (1/2 unit)

[wal66]

Hi Cougar Bait. I have been called a cougar all week. ROAR!!!!1

Here kitty kitty.

[strike3]

Sounds interesting Wal

[DarkNite]

I have decided to pick:
Oregon St.+10.5
CIN
WVIR
SCAL
FLA
CALI
GGTC
TEX
I want to see how many W?

[BadNina]

Wally, the only way I see Dunlop being an issue is if his backup gets hurts. Now there will be plays that he would have impacted but whoever plays in his spot will have his chance to shine. Same way we had last year in the Sugar Bowl when Smith was stupid. That didn't work too well for us though.

[tblues2005]

good pick tonight there wal. Do you have anything with Ohio and C. Michigan?

[wal66]

Too bad I didn't have the confidence to play my leans. It's ok though I got to have some action with very little at risk and still paid off so complaining would be very immature.

Nina, I agree. If Alabama were a prodominately passing team then Carlos being suspended would have a severe impact. Maybe in a weird kind of way this will actually force the defense to THINK they have to play even better. That's stretching it a bit because they already know full well where their defense ranks. Every little bit of motivation helps though.

tblues, I have an idea already about tonights game but I still need to run some numbers. I have been a play on Central Michigan guy several times this year but tonight I'm not 100% sold yet. I will be crunching some numbers today and have either a play or an opinion later on.

[BECHunter]

Wally, the only way I see Dunlop being an issue is if his backup gets hurts. Now there will be plays that he would have impacted but whoever plays in his spot will have his chance to shine. Same way we had last year in the Sugar Bowl when Smith was stupid. That didn't work too well for us though.

Losing Dunlap definitely hurts UF on passing situations such as 3rd and long. The guy will be a 1st round pick in the draft.

[DavidWoodley]

Ok, I don't have my write-up on the Florida game prepared yet but I just went to my site and they had the line already up at Florida -4.5. I never get lines this early on any next week games and I already know I like Florida -7 so I am down on Florida at this opening line and will add more as the week goes along.

Play:

Florida -4.5 ($550 to win $500)

[tblues2005]

Too bad I didn't have the confidence to play my leans. It's ok though I got to have some action with very little at risk and still paid off so complaining would be very immature.

Nina, I agree. If Alabama were a prodominately passing team then Carlos being suspended would have a severe impact. Maybe in a weird kind of way this will actually force the defense to THINK they have to play even better. That's stretching it a bit because they already know full well where their defense ranks. Every little bit of motivation helps though.

tblues, I have an idea already about tonights game but I still need to run some numbers. I have been a play on Central Michigan guy several times this year but tonight I'm not 100% sold yet. I will be crunching some numbers today and have either a play or an opinion later on.

Thanks. I will be on later before the game starts and see if you have anything on tonight's game.

[BigdaddyQH]

Getting back to the 'Bama-Florida game, I think the suspension has to give 'Bama some confindence, especially along the offensive line and to QB McElory. 'Bama is going to have to come up with some success throwing the ball, or Florida will just put 8 men in the box and play run all day. Now 'Bama does not have to win the game throwing the ball, but they do have to keep the Florida defense honest. This, like every other game this weeked is a pass for us. We are way up this year. We see no point in wagering on games that do not have great value, and tis one does not have value either way. The line is about right.

[wal66]

Wow, I was all set to go ahead and make a nice big play on Ohio tonight. I mean my program says Central Michigan should be favored by only 5.5 and my research suggest that Central Michigan should only be favored by 6-7 points. Everything was all lined up and then as I am about to write my play up I remembered I hadn't checked the injury report.

Ohio U has several players that are listed as questionable. LaVon Brazil the 2nd leading reciever on the Bobcats was injured in the 1st half last week. Quarterback Theo Scott injured his ankle last week as well and is listed as questionable. Freshman quarterback Tyler Tettleton finished the game last week and performed ok but this would be a huge stage tonight if he were to have to start. Chances are good Scott will get the go ahead but as to how muc he can endure is anybodies guess.

I have been riding Central Michigan all season in several spots but Ohio is a very solid team. I really like how they can play decent defense as well.

Even though this isn't technically a home game for the Chippewas it isn't far from it. The unknown factor of the injuries will keep me from playing this game heavy but I am gonna stick with the combination of the program, the data and my gut here.


Play:

Ohio U +14* (bought the 1/2)

[jgray]

Guilty on assault. Guilty on criminal mischief. Guilty on aggrevated assault on a police officer. The first two were easy the aggrevated assault on the police officer was very tough for us. We actually deliberated for over 3 hours on this on verdict. There are 7 criteria that have to be met in order to render a guilty verdict on this count and we were agreed on all but one that took almost the entire time to hammer out. It dealt with the officer feeling threatened for his own personal safety by the actions or words of the defendant. The police officer put two rounds in the chest of the defendant after being called to a burglary in progress call that turned out to be a domestic dispute. Upon reaching the residence the officer spotted a female inside a bedroom bracing up against a closed door clutching a baby in one hand and a butcher knife in the other. The officer heard pounding and saw the door was being jolted from the other side. The officer enters the appartment clears the kitchen, clears the livingroom and spots at the end of the hall the defendant pressing against the bedroom door some 18 feet away. Testimony by the officer said he shouted "Police, hands up" and then repeated a second time. Officer said defendant turned at which time the officer saw a knife in the defendants hand and the officer said he shouted "Drop the Knife" twice. The officer said the defendant completed his turn and said "come on man" and then moved forward at which time the officer put two rounds in the defendant. The problem was through testimony it was obvious the defendant wasn't telling the whole truth. It was also pretty evident that the police weren't being completely honest either. I mean let's face it if we were to find the defendant not guilty of the aggrevated assault on the police officer then the defendant has a very good case in a civil suit against the police department. I had a problem with the Crime Scene officers testimoy as to where the 2 spent 40 cal. cassings were in relation to where the officer said he shot the defendant. During jury selections we were asked if any of us owned guns and not surprisingly all the jury members selected do not own guns. I guess if we were ignorant about how guns opperate then it helped both the defense and the prosecution. Anyways not owning a gun and not understanding the physics or the opperations of the projectiles aren't the same thing. Also I had a problem because this officer even though prior to entering the dwelliing appeared to act appropiately once inside and noticing that there was a closed door between the defendant and the victim had an opportunity to use a tasser instead of his firearm. It seemed that the officer over.reacted got too close to the defendant giving himself no option but to shoot. I would have remained deadlocked if I hadn't finally noticed in one of the crimescene photos some blood splatter on the wall that was in evidence due to the picture but never brought out in open court testimony. There were smudges of blood on the wall that could be explained easily enough but the splatters on the wall could only have been made in the defendant was actually closer to the entrance of the hallway rather than at the very end of the hallway. This could have been cleared up easily enough if the prosecution had done a better job in the courtroom. There were so many mistakes made both by the prosecution and the defense attourney. Both parties tried tricks rather than logic to work the jurors over which was really sad. The defendant was guilty according to the actual law but the officer has some culpability by acting too hastily. The officer wasn't on trial in this case though and as jurors we couldn't anticipate or bring anything not in evidence into out decision making.

Fascinating summary.

I wonder whether the smudges of blood in the hallway were subject of a pretrial motion instructing the parties to not discuss that evidence. It's possible that there was some non-nefarious reason for the blood that had nothing to do with the case. For example, if someone contaminated the scene after the incident, then that evidence would not be relevant and the attorneys would likely be instructed not to discuss it.

In any event, sounds like an interesting experience and its clear you took it very seriously. Well done.

[tblues2005]

Wow, I was all set to go ahead and make a nice big play on Ohio tonight. I mean my program says Central Michigan should be favored by only 5.5 and my research suggest that Central Michigan should only be favored by 6-7 points. Everything was all lined up and then as I am about to write my play up I remembered I hadn't checked the injury report.

Ohio U has several players that are listed as questionable. LaVon Brazil the 2nd leading reciever on the Bobcats was injured in the 1st half last week. Quarterback Theo Scott injured his ankle last week as well and is listed as questionable. Freshman quarterback Tyler Tettleton finished the game last week and performed ok but this would be a huge stage tonight if he were to have to start. Chances are good Scott will get the go ahead but as to how muc he can endure is anybodies guess.

I have been riding Central Michigan all season in several spots but Ohio is a very solid team. I really like how they can play decent defense as well.

Even though this isn't technically a home game for the Chippewas it isn't far from it. The unknown factor of the injuries will keep me from playing this game heavy but I am gonna stick with the combination of the program, the data and my gut here.


Play:

Ohio U +14* (bought the 1/2)

I seen this in the USA Today also that the ratings was C. Mich by 8. Thanks wal.

[angelodebo]

wal..I respect your picks and I respect everyone's picks..I always read your threads.

Personally..I'm liking bama..I understand there are some injuries on offense. But I'm betting that Bama's defense gives Florida tons of trouble. I'm not saying Bama wins outright. But I think this is going to be a low scoring game with a lot of critical defensive plays. So..I'll be taking the points. I'm hoping it goes up to six points.

As far as games this weekend..I'm all over Texas! i think this game is a blow out!!!! Nebraska has NOOOO offense! They do have a good defense...but their defense is not good enough to shut down Texas (see texas tech)

Texas wins by 30!

[wal66]

Cool beans. Ohio could have easily of been blown out but it still ends up a winner.

[wal66]

Fascinating summary.

I wonder whether the smudges of blood in the hallway were subject of a pretrial motion instructing the parties to not discuss that evidence. It's possible that there was some non-nefarious reason for the blood that had nothing to do with the case. For example, if someone contaminated the scene after the incident, then that evidence would not be relevant and the attorneys would likely be instructed not to discuss it.

In any event, sounds like an interesting experience and its clear you took it very seriously. Well done.

I spent 30 minutes on the phone yesterday with the state's assistant D.A. He returned my call because he said he really likes feedback afer a trial. We discussed the blood and the shell casings. He said he didn't draw attention to either because he didn't want to either waste more money on additional witnesses and also because he didn't want to overload the jury. I explained to him that with 4 different versions of CSI, 2 NCIS, 4 Law and Orders out there that everyone has bcome more aware of the science involved. He admitted he underestemated the juorors understanding of evidence. It was really cool being given credit for a better than expected knowledge and attention to details.

As for taking it seriously, I personally feel it is an experience that is worth the time and effort. While there are serious flaws in our justice system I don't think I personally should add to them by taking my civic dutiy lightly.

[Cougar Bait]

Ohio never was less than 10 points down...it was the right side. Yes, the last 4 minutes had it's gifts, but Ohio was the right play. Glad we cashed it bro

[wal66]

Ohio never was less than 10 points down...it was the right side. Yes, the last 4 minutes had it's gifts, but Ohio was the right play. Glad we cashed it bro

[wal66]

Todays 12:00 PM games.

West Virginia vs Rutgers
My program likes West Virginia here by 4. The research suggest this game is evenly matched and suggest a 23-23 tie based on the numbers. I have no opinion on this game either way.

Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh
My program suggest Cincy by 5.5. The research suggest Cincy -2. I really like the way Pittsburgh plays tough and aggressive but you can't deny how solid Cincy has performed all year long. I know we generally look for a couple of upsets on the last games of the season and this one has the potential but I can't deny the numbers. Combined data suggest a final in the 30-27 range.

Houston vs East Carolina
My program liked Hoston by 4. the research suggest Houston by 3.5. I personally looked for an edge here for East Carolina. I think they play the better defense and have more at stake here. Objectively I was making a mistake. Looking for facts to support what you're thinking is a terrible way to approach a game. Final score by all combined data puts this game in the 34 -30 range with Houston being the winner.

Fresno St vs Illinois
My program suggest Fresno by 8.5. The research supports Fresno St by 5. However that is based on pure numbers. When you look deeper at Fresno they are a product of their schedule. They played 4 somewhat quality opponents this year in Nevada, Boise St, Cincinnati and Wisconsin and lost all 4 of those games. Illinois lost all games they would be considered quality opponents as well. I know Fresno has a history of going anywhere playing anyone and has performed well on the road in the past and that is the only reason I would even consider Fresno in this spot. Final score from all combined data suggest Fresno 33-28.

Plays:

Cincinnati -1.5*

Houston -2*

Fresno St +2.5*

[Unchained]

Your picks have been spot on. Wally
Some nice insight tks

[wal66]

It's still early but as of now the early games are going very bad for me.

Here are my last 2 games for this weekend and for the regular season.

Big 12 Championship
Texas vs Nebraska
While this isn't techically a home game for Texas it is played in Dallas at Cowboys Stadium.
I don't hink we could honestly poll the entire nation and find a handful of people that thinks Texas is not gonna win this game. Unfortunately we can't make much money wagering on Texas just winning the game though. There is no doubt Texas can put up some nice numbers. they are destined to play for a National Title and if you look at their season as a whole they have played some very good defense all year long. their defense is somewhat underrated by in large. On the flip Nebraska has won games all season because they have such a very good defense. They also have one of the best defensive linemen in all of college football. Where nebraska suffers coming intto this game is on offense though. They are unimaginative and really don't have big play potential. If Nebraska finds themselves down early they will not be capable of staying in this game.

My program suggested Texas should be a 10 point favorite. Aftr looking at the entire season and paying very close attention to common opponents the differences in the numbers are a little less than that. The research suggest Texas should be favored by 7 points. As I stated Texas could get out front in a hurry and Nebraska on't be capable of keeping up but I am gonna trust everything I have done all season here and take Nebraska and the points.

South Florida @ UConn
I wish I could go with a home state team in this contest but nothing suggest South Florida will win this game. My program likes UConn by 4. The research I did says UConn wins by 3. Based on those 2 indicators this game would normally be a pass. If I were forced to make a play based on the data I would have to tak South Florida and the points except for one very critical point. The weather. I should be extremely could and rainy tonight. A bunch of Florida boys playing in such adverse conditions doesn't bode well for this number.

Plays:

Nebraska +14* (bought the hook)

UConn -7*

2-Team 7-Point Teaser

Nebraska +20.5 UConn even*** (3 units)




I haven't had a good Saturday in 3 weeks now and with todays selections it could very easily be 4. I stand a chance if all goes poorly today to drop below 60% for the season.