Predicting CFB Outcomes - Multi Factor Model

twentyonekid · 11-09-09, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by titleist1604

I'm testing a model that predicts the future results of NCAA FB matchups. Listed below are the predictions for the week.

Teams win by __Points

Ohio+2.5 @ Bufflo Bufflo by 4

Toledo+16 @ CMU CMU by 10

Bowling Green-3 @ Miami OH BG by 4

Ball State+17 @ UNI UNI by 10

USF-1 @ Rutgers Rutgers by 8

WVU +9.5 @ Cincinnati Cinci by 11

Temple -4.5 @ Akron Temple by 3

Indiana +22 @ Penn St Penn st by 14

Tennessee +3.5 @ Ole Miss Ole Miss by 10 not a chance....tenn wins outright

Houston-5 @ UCF Houston by 7

Stanford+11.5 @ USC USC by 7

Arizona-2 @ Cal Arizona by 4

Fresno St+6.5 @ Nevada Fresno by 2

Tx AM+18.5 @ OU OU by 10

Miami-4 @ UNC UNC by 3

Tx Tech+3.5 @ Ok St TT by 3

Utah+17.5 @ TCU TCU by 13

This is intended for research purposes only, not to be relied on for investment purchases.
[EMAIL edited out]

i love tennessee here

titleist1604 · 11-10-09, 02:29 PM

If i were to bet on these games strictly based on these results it would be:

Bufflo -2.5

Toledo +16

Bowling Green -3

Ball State +17

Rutgers +1

Cincinnati -9.5

Akron +4.5

Indiana +22

Ole Miss +3.5

Houston-5

Stanford+11.5

Arizona-2

Fresno St+6.5

Tx AM+18.5

UNC+4

Tx Tech+3.5

Utah+17.5

titleist1604 · 11-10-09, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by twentyonekid

i love tennessee here

I guess we'll find out this week

wal66 · 11-10-09, 03:13 PM

Enjoy your model. I can tell you from personal experience that when you see it actually be supported by results there is just an enormous sense of pride that goes with it.

Good luck with your testing.

titleist1604 · 11-10-09, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by wal66

Enjoy your model. I can tell you from personal experience that when you see it actually be supported by results there is just an enormous sense of pride that goes with it.

Good luck with your testing.

Thanks wal. GL this weekend

titleist1604 · 11-10-09, 04:01 PM

*Typo
Its Ole Miss -3.5

That line is -5 right now at pinnacal. All spreads are the pinnacal opening lines

strictlywinners · 11-10-09, 06:51 PM

Good luck my man, I really like alot of the predictions its coming out with. I have a few similiar predictions, Rutgers is great 1 by you.

titleist1604 · 11-16-09, 08:14 PM

Bufflo -2.5

Toledo +16

Bowling Green -3

Ball State +17

Rutgers +1

Cincinnati -9.5

Akron +4.5

Indiana +22

Ole Miss -3.5

Houston-5

Stanford+11.5

Arizona-2

Fresno St+6.5

Tx AM+18.5

UNC+4

Tx Tech+3.5

Utah+17.5

Week 11 results: random sample of 17 games: 7-10

I believe this model provides little significance with big favorites (14+), while it's accuracy increases with lower spreads.

titleist1604 · 11-16-09, 08:27 PM

I made minor tweaks on a few parameters and lets give it a go for this week

Week 12 picks based on predictions with a few random samples (don't have time to do all the games)

Miss St. @ Arkansas -10.5

Colorado @ OSU -14

Akron @ BG -12.5

N Illinois -1 @ Ohio

Oregon @ Arizona +5.5

UNC @ Boston College -3.5

Uconn+6 @ Notre Dame

Penn St @ Mich st +3.5

Wisconsin @ Nwestern +6

UAB +10 @ ECU

Baylor @ Tx AM -7.5

LA Tech @ Fresno st -10

Cal @ Stanford -6.5

Kstate @ Nebraska -14.5

titleist1604 · 11-17-09, 08:33 PM

Forgot to add the predicted margins..

Team win by __ Points

Miss St. @ Arkansas -10.5
Arkansas 14

Colorado @ Ok St -14
OSU 16

Akron @ Bowling Green -12.5
BG 13

N Illinois -1 @ Ohio
UNI 2

Oregon @ Arizona +5.5
Oregon 3

UNC @ Boston College -3.5
BC 6

Uconn+6 @ Notre Dame
ND 5

Penn St @ Mich st +3.5
Penn St 1

Wisconsin @ Nwestern +6
Nwestern 3

UAB +10 @ ECU
ECU 7

Baylor @ Tx AM -7.5
Tx AM 10

LA Tech @ Fresno st -10
Fresno st 13

Cal @ Stanford -6.5
Stanford 12

Kstate @ Nebraska -14.5
Nebraska 15

Oklahoma @ Tx Tech
Tx Tech 3

titleist1604 · 11-17-09, 08:56 PM

titleist1604 · 11-18-09, 01:58 AM

Adding a couple more:

Ohio State @ Michigan +11.5
Ohio State 4

LSU @ Ole Miss -3
Ole Miss 7

titleist1604 · 11-18-09, 02:43 PM

Bufflo @ Miami Ohio +1.5
Bufflo 1