West Coast (Pac-10 & WAC) Week #11 (November 14th) Play(s) and Thoughts!

HoulihansTX · 11-09-09, 09:59 AM

I like your thinking, but Stanford is better than people think. USC is the team that is vastly overrated. USC still is getting Double Digit spreads, even though their defense is not what people make it out to be.

You are right about Arizona being able to play Oregon well. They are a product of a school who stayed patience with their coach, and allowed him to accumulate talent. Mike Stoops is better than Bob to me.

Do you stay away from the big spreads that Boise State gets, or do you think playing them first half is the profitable way to go?

I hope you continue to post, b/c the forum needs an insightful "West-Coast Football Enthusiast." Since you don't want to be our expert. HAHA

BigdaddyQH · 11-09-09, 10:36 AM

Here are your West Coast lines. Openers and what to expect:

UCLA -20 at Washington State. This line may drop a bit.
USC -10 vs Stanford. Maybe a tad low.
Arizona -2 at Cal. About right.
Oregon -17 vs Arizona State. About right.
Oregon State -10 vs Washington. About right.

No WAC games interest us at all. As far as playing Nevada ML against Boise State, do yourself a favor. It is Turkey Day weekend. If you are married, use the money wisely, like taking your wife out to a nice dinner. Nevada has no chance at Boise State. Boise is 9-0 vs Nevada S/U in the past 10 years. What makes you think that a team that could not beat Colorado State or score against Notre Dame can beat Boise S/U?

Kevy · 11-09-09, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

I like your thinking, but Stanford is better than people think. USC is the team that is vastly overrated. USC still is getting Double Digit spreads, even though their defense is not what people make it out to be.

I just feel this line is too fishy and everyone and their box of granola bars is on Stanford this week. Probaly a no play for me. But if the line drops some more and the touts join the public on Stanford, It might become a play.

You are right about Arizona being able to play Oregon well. They are a product of a school who stayed patience with their coach, and allowed him to accumulate talent. Mike Stoops is better than Bob to me.

I love the direction that program is heading in. I really see Arizona, Arizona Sate, and Washington as programs on the rise in the conference.

Do you stay away from the big spreads that Boise State gets, or do you think playing them first half is the profitable way to go?

I'm not a fan of heavy chalk. I haven't layed over -3 on any college spread in over 12 years.

I hope you continue to post, b/c the forum needs an insightful "West-Coast Football Enthusiast." Since you don't want to be our expert. HAHA

Will be here permanently.

Kevy · 11-09-09, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Here are your West Coast lines. Openers and what to expect:

UCLA -20 at Washington State. This line may drop a bit.
USC -10 vs Stanford. Maybe a tad low.
Arizona -2 at Cal. About right.
Oregon -17 vs Arizona State. About right.
Oregon State -10 vs Washington. About right.

No WAC games interest us at all. As far as playing Nevada ML against Boise State, do yourself a favor. It is Turkey Day weekend. If you are married, use the money wisely, like taking your wife out to a nice dinner. Nevada has no chance at Boise State. Boise is 9-0 vs Nevada S/U in the past 10 years. What makes you think that a team that could not beat Colorado State or score against Notre Dame can beat Boise S/U?

Nevada is a much better team at this point. Night and day compared to where they were at. I only fear the Refs in the upcoming game with Boise State. Nevada came up just a missed xp short back in 07' as a 28 point dog at Boise State. In 08' they had some injuries and bad breaks in the game. I think they score at will on Boise State. I will hedge with a Nevada Team Total Over wager. Will be a glorious Thanksgiving weekend for sure.

Kevy · 11-09-09, 10:45 PM

I'm sorta kicking around San Jose State. I know after the spanking they got last night it might be a little hard for them to sit down in class this week. Many of the Spartans will be listed as "probable"=red ass........in the injury reports. But Utah State laying over 10 or so points.................................. ................................

I'm sorta looking at California.........I was so caught up on how fishy the Trees & Trojans line was that I almost overlooked this one..................................... .......

I think I'm settled on three to focus on:
WASHINGTON
SAN JOSE STATE
CALIFORNIA

Now I need everyone to pound Oregon State, Utah State, and Arizona................
And maybe I'll wish upon a star for Dr. Bob, Lang, Etc to do the same..................

Got the week to figure this out

Kevy · 11-11-09, 02:30 AM

Noticed some reverse line movement with Zona/Cal. Seen Cal +1 just a bit ago.
Also quite a few posters at other sites are loving Arizona. Cal beats everyone except USC & Oregon State at home over the last several years. I haven't locked in just yet but this play is looking sharper.

There is a great thread in this forum that talks about look ahead and let down spots (I'm new here so please forgive me for not remembering the name of the poster who started that great thread). One of the possible plays/spots was to go against Utah State because the got Boise State next friday night on national tv.

Let me give you one more reason to consider a play against Utah State from someone who has capped the WAC for over twelve years. Teams after playing at Hawaii the following week more often than not tend to be good fades. I always factor it in when I cap the WAC. It's not a fool proof guarantee system or anything like that. But it is something I always factor into my capping of the WAC.

Washington now getting +12 at some shops. Climb baby climb........................

jnickell100 · 11-11-09, 02:43 AM

I'm really liking Fresno this week on the ML but ill take the +7 they are getting. When Fresno travels to Reno it is essentially a home game with about a quarter of the stadium Red. Furthermore, i believe that everyone is high on nevada because they were prime time and put as ass wipping on SJSU who is at the very bottom of the WAC. Fresno has the leading rusher in the nation and will keep the ball away from the Nevada offense and the can outscore them as well.Nevada is a great Offensive team with a great run game but Fresno wins this game.

In regards to the Cal game, im looking at this too. I like Cal here but am a little apprehenisive with Best being out. I can see this game going 2 ways, them being pumped and wanting to play for Best or being emotionally drained and losing. I can figure it out.

EDIT: just wanted to add that i like the under here. I think everyone is gonna jump the over because Fresno offense is so good and so is Nevada. But i think this week Fresno plays ball control, keep away from Karpernick and wins outright and +7

Kevy · 11-11-09, 03:21 AM

Jnickell100, What I like about your Fresno State play either ML or points is the roll of Fresno State as the dog. Over the years I have liked being on them when they are the hunter and not the hunted. Also if it's tight late in the game they're field goal kicker (a future NFL guy two years from now) could come into play and help you cash. I've been kicking around the Under as a play on that game. If it's a late game (I'm West Coast-so for me that would be a 4pm or 7pm start my time)and my noon time games cash or have me ahead, I might play the Under. If it's an early game probaly a no play for me.

I'm so loving Cal it's not even funny! I will be playing Arizona in any roll (dog or fav) the following week aginst Oregon. My best scenario is Cal to take care of business and Oregon to roll Arizona State to set me up for the following week.

Kevy · 11-12-09, 08:30 PM

Dr.Bob was/is on Oregon State today. Washington now up to +13.5
That is great news and very much appreciated by me. I'm loving
Washington at this point. I'm just debating units and size at this point.

California is now at -3 I still like em' but I'm getting better value with
Washington, especially now that it's at +13.5 So I would almost rather
take those units and put them on Washington.

San Jose State around 12.5 to 13 right now. Even this one is more attractive
to me than California at this point. Don't like this one as much as Washington.
But it's a close second.

Still might roll with California, I just wish it had not hit -3

Kevy · 11-13-09, 01:34 AM

Looking at New Mexico State/Hawaii and Arizona State/Oregon games right now.
They are on my radar now!

This is such a funky week for the Pac-10 & WAC lines. Can't remember a time where I haven't already been locked and loaded on a Monday or Tuesday. Here it is late Thursday night and I'm still picking apart the Saturday games.

jnickell100 · 11-13-09, 02:25 AM

I like your picks Kevy. In regards to NMSU/ Hawaii i dont know what to do. NM is a HORRIBLE team who has absolutely no offense and has been shut out multiple times including a 30-0 to Fresno whose defense is suspect. Hawaii is finally starting to play ok with their offense and it is super hard for teams to go to the island and win, but -19 seems a bit to much for me.

Kinda the same thing with Wash/ OR St. I dont really like this play either, but im definetly leaning on Washington to cover if i did. Ore St is so up and down but =13.5 is a lot of points. Ill watch this one and if i can get it at 14 then ill book it.

Youre right though, the WAC and PAC 10's lines are kinda weird this weekend to me too. I have a lot of leans( i also like Idaho+31.5, Cal-3, Wash -, Oregon -, and USC) i am just not confident enough to add these.
Opinions??

Kevy · 11-13-09, 03:17 AM

Jnickell100, Thanks for the good words. I agree with you on all your leans. Same way I am thinking they play out.

New Mexico State at around +19 offers a lot of value. Hawaii games are always late chase games for the degenerates. So maybe we might see possibly +21 or so closer to game time depending on how the masses do earlier in the day. I like them at +17.5 or better. To possibly get +21.5 or more would be gravy. I see this spot for New Mexico State similar to that of San Jose State. Both are playing against the weakest competition either has seen in a few weeks (San Jose State-arguably for the season). If there is a defense that could help New Mexico States offense see some life-Hawaii's could be the one.

I would love for Washington to hit 14. I like them at +10.5 or better. Getting +14 would make it a lock. I feel that Washington could score all day on the Beavers defense. Lately Washington has been shooting themselves in the foot settling on field goals and stopping themselves. Every good or half decent QB that has faced the Beavers has shredded their defense. Jake Locker poses their biggest test yet imo. But Washington needs to be able to exploit it. I'm also digging the fact that Washington needs this game for a glimmer of hope where a bowl is concerned.

I sorta intrigued with the Zona State/Oregon game. That's a late game also. And I would like to where that spread and total ends up by game time.

I was looking at team totals earlier before i seen your post (over at the Greek) and they are razor sharp this week. Nothing that jumped out as soft imo.

I think now it's just a waiting game for me with the Washington & San Jose State prices.

Killer_Demo · 11-13-09, 02:33 PM

I'm on CAL ML

BigdaddyQH · 11-13-09, 02:45 PM

Before you wager on Cal, you had better check the line movement in Vegas. They lost their best player and were routed at home by Oregon State last week. There is absolutely no LEGITIMATE reason for Cal to have gone from +2 to -3. There are no new Arizona injuries to report. It appears that someone, or group, wanted Joe Pub to jump all over Cal, which they did. Now the line drops 2 points in one hour. This is how the high rollers bait Joe Pub into a wrong play. Put a little on the team you think will lose (in this case, Cal) and hope the public follows suit. Then, when the line hits a safe number for them, slam the team that thy think will win (Arizona in this case). The classic "bait and switch".

S.K.M. · 11-13-09, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Before you wager on Cal, you had better check the line movement in Vegas. They lost their best player and were routed at home by Oregon State last week. There is absolutely no LEGITIMATE reason for Cal to have gone from +2 to -3. There are no new Arizona injuries to report. It appears that someone, or group, wanted Joe Pub to jump all over Cal, which they did. Now the line drops 2 points in one hour. This is how the high rollers bait Joe Pub into a wrong play. Put a little on the team you think will lose (in this case, Cal) and hope the public follows suit. Then, when the line hits a safe number for them, slam the team that thy think will win (Arizona in this case). The classic "bait and switch".

I have been wondering about this movement also. Isn't this a case of reverse line movement? Meaning that the smart money is on Cal? I am lost on this one because before i looked at the line movement I thought Zona was the play.

BigdaddyQH · 11-13-09, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by S.K.M.

I have been wondering about this movement also. Isn't this a case of reverse line movement? Meaning that the smart money is on Cal? I am lost on this one because before i looked at the line movement I thought Zona was the play.

What happens is this. If I love Arizona and want to sucker Joe Pub, I may put a little money on Cal, hoping that Joe Pub dives in. If you look at the wgering history, you will see that the line did not take a huge jump. It went up a little at a time. Today, the line dropped dramatically, and in a very short period of time, indicating that the samrt money all wnet on Arizona and in a big hurry. The high rollers do not wager a little at a time. So I wait for the line to get into my comfort zone, and slam Arizona.

S.K.M. · 11-13-09, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

What happens is this. If I love Arizona and want to sucker Joe Pub, I may put a little money on Cal, hoping that Joe Pub dives in. If you look at the wgering history, you will see that the line did not take a huge jump. It went up a little at a time. Today, the line dropped dramatically, and in a very short period of time, indicating that the samrt money all wnet on Arizona and in a big hurry. The high rollers do not wager a little at a time. So I wait for the line to get into my comfort zone, and slam Arizona.

I see what you're saying but isn't the public on Arizona? The public is all over Zona and the line is moving in the opposite direction indicating the smart money is on Cal. I have not seen a change today. Zona is still +3 at my book.

Kevy · 11-14-09, 07:40 AM

Saturday Afternoon Plays I'm On:

SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS (Money Line) +385

WASHINGTON HUSKIES (Money Line) +425

Weekend College & Pro 5-Team 6 Point Teaser +500
SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS +18.5
WASHINGTON HUSKIES +19.5
ARIZONA STATE/OREGON TOTAL UNDER 56
GREEN BAY PACKERS +9
BALTIMORE RAVENS -4

badhunter · 11-14-09, 09:52 AM

I don't like any of your picks or rationale. Cal is weak, they lost Javid last week and Riley is extremely inconsistent. They barely beat Arizona St., in fact, should have lost. Arizona controls its own destiny to the Rose Bowl - take the points +3 and run to the bank.

Oregon hosts Arizona State. Line climbed to +18 and I believe Oregon wins in a blowout, 41-17 and easily covers the spread.

Oregon State is playing some of the best ball in the Pac-10 right now. Washington is sliding downhill. Quizz runs for 200 yards and Beavs win by two TDs at home.

Stanford at SC. I'm taking the Cardinal and the points. SC is terribly overrated this year. How can they lost to Washington and get destroyed by Oregon yet are several spots higher in the BCS poll than Oregon who lost to Boise State and Stanford? Ridiculous.

Andrew Luck is a No. 1 pick in two years.

BigdaddyQH · 11-14-09, 10:13 AM

I agree with badhunter about the Arizona-Cal game. This is a must win for Arizona if they want any hope of the Rose Bowl (which is not happening, but hey can dream). You saw what happened to Cal without Best last week. The rest of the games are not worth wagering.

Skidcom · 11-14-09, 10:37 AM

Liking Stanford

Kevy · 11-14-09, 05:41 PM

To respond to a couple people who don't like my picks or rationale.

That's cool.

I'm primarily a money line dog player who will play teasers on the side. ChiArchie and a couple other posters wanted me to come in and be involved with getting some discussion going each week on the West Coast games. I cap a lot of Pac-10, WAC, and MWC games. I gave some thoughts and opinions on various spreads and totals above. Nothing more. Nothing less. I tend to think outside of the box a little bit as most money line dog players do ( guys at other forums who primarily do ML Dogs like Garfather, Matador, Newport, etc-usually fit this category too).

Now as far as my two ML Dog selections I seen a lot of value I took a shot. As a ML Dog player-the highs are really high-and the lows can be brutal.

The Teaser play is on life support----But the doctor hasn't pulled plug just yet!

Looking at a couple late games right now.

Kevy · 11-14-09, 05:52 PM

Early evening:

U.N.L.V (money line) +500

HoulihansTX · 11-14-09, 05:53 PM

What do you think about..

Arizona St. +20

Kevy · 11-14-09, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

What do you think about..

Arizona St. +20

Earlier this afternoon on Ducks radio here in Portland, there was a mention that the young QB Oswheiler for Zona State could get yanked early if he's struggling. That he's not going to be left in regardless of what happens. This was allegedly from the Zona State coaches. Danny Sullivan the regular starter has totally under achieved this season to put it nicely. But I do think Zona State has the defense to keep it from getting out of hand. I'm not sold on the Ducks defense (most pac-10 followers are-but I'm not).

I've been kicking around the Under 51 and the Zona State +20 all day. My gut has been screaming to take a shot on the ML......But that might be just me in chase mode. Zona State wasn't on my radar as a side until I heard mention that the young QB has a short lease.

With the day I've had today-I might be a better fade at this point.

HoulihansTX · 11-14-09, 06:22 PM

So you have no definitive answer.

I love Arizona St. +20. It opened at +16.5, and steamed up to the current number.

Kevy · 11-14-09, 07:07 PM

Late Games:

ARIZONA STATE (Money Line) +700

NEW MEXICO STATE (Money Line) +700

Kevy · 11-14-09, 07:15 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

So you have no definitive answer.

I love Arizona St. +20. It opened at +16.5, and steamed up to the current number.

I had to wrap up my post a little quickly earlier-didn't mean to not finish up the discussion.

I'm taking a shot with Zona State ML-I probaly should hedge with the +20 or more that it will close at. But I'm going all in. I'm fading the overrated smoke and mirrors Ducks defense.

S.K.M. · 11-14-09, 07:21 PM

ASU has no chance of winning in Euguene.....

badhunter · 11-15-09, 01:45 AM

Looks like my picks were pretty much right on:

Oregon destroying ASU
Oregon State hammering UW
Stanford beating USC

Fell short on Arizona.

Kevy · 11-15-09, 01:55 AM

Originally posted by badhunter

Looks like my picks were pretty much right on:

Oregon destroying ASU
Oregon State hammering UW
Stanford beating USC

Fell short on Arizona.

Congrats, you nailed em. I loved California all week but didn't play them.

Kevy · 11-15-09, 02:20 AM

What a terrible day with the Money Line Dog plays and the Teaser play going a combined 0-6. When playing ML Dogs primarily as I do this can come with the territory.

Not a great showing my first week here participating in the forum. But I will start a thread each week to talk West Coast Football and talk Money Line Dogs (I also play ML Dogs outside of the PAC-10, WAC, and MWC too, also NFL ML Dogs) I also play Teasers on the side for both college and pro.

GLTA on your Sunday NFL wagers

jnickell100 · 11-17-09, 02:09 PM

kevy what you lookin at for this week?

Kevy · 11-18-09, 02:20 PM

After last week.......looking at a jar of vaseline..........

I'll start a new thread for this week. Sill looking at this weeks card.