The following are my picks along with the lines I got them at, all via Matchbook:,
Army (+10) vs. Rutgers - Rutgers continues to be overrated, Army looks like a strong candidate to win this outright. My favorite pick of the weekend.
Idaho (+13) at Nevada - Nevada is very overrated in what looks to be a shootout between these schools. I don't foresee either stopping the other ... ever, which makes 13 just too much for Nevada to cover. Idaho continues to appear underrated, despite their recent successes.
Virginia (+4) vs. Georgia Tech - going the other way compared to just about everyone else here. Got this line before the injury news got out, however it's interesting to note that the line did not budge initially. These seems like a classic case of showy offense and no defense getting more respect than they deserve, particularly on the road where GT has been less than impressive. If I had to bet it today, however, I'd probably lay off due to the question mark by Sewell. If he his healthy, there's even better value on the current line for Virginia here.
Michigan (+4.5) vs. Penn State - Penn State remains slightly overrated, although I love their defense. However, this appears to be the first game where that defense will be put to a significant test. I also don't believe Penn St.'s passing attack can take advantage of Michigan's biggest weakness, their secondary. I also like this play a lot.
Central Michigan (-7) at Bowling Green - Central Michigan appears to be the best team in the MAC, solid on both ends of the ball; Bowling Green isn't particularly good anywhere. Power ratings favor CM here.
West Virginia (-7) vs. Connecticut - love WVU at home here, I believe folks have started to figure out that UConn is a decent team, but WVU is playing really solid all-around football and should take this comfortably in front of their home crowd. I'm really not sure how to handicap the stabbing incident, although the bet was made beforehand.
Northern Illinois (-11.5) at Miami (OH) - Northern Illinois came off a bad loss last week and I expect a bounce back here, against one of the worst teams in college football. I don't see Miami being able to stop NI's offense.
UTEP (+7) vs. Tulsa - Weekday night home dog. Tulsa is very, very overrated; they played some of the worst cupcakes in D-1 previously, and the home game against Boise was not as close as the final score indicated. UTEP has a good chance to win this outright. UTEP 28 - Tulsa 24 (Winner)
Temple (-1) at Toledo - that's right, sucker me jumped on this before it steamed to Toledo. I'm left scratching my head here as I know Toledo has some offense, but Temple continues to fly under the radar as a decent team with a solid defense. I'd say Toledo is getting too much credit for their gaudy offensive numbers, but I'd think early sharp money better than that. Well anyway, it's my pick and I still like it.
Duke (-6) vs. Maryland - Duke has been surprising this year, particularly on offense. I expect this to continue against a suspect Maryland team. I also believe Duke's maligned defense handles Maryland's inept offense, at least enough for a comfortable cover.
UNC (-2.5) vs. FSU - love, love, love UNC's defense, classic battle of strength vs. strength here. Going with UNC's defense to play at a high level and signficantly limit FSU's offense. UNC's offense, while fairly pathetic, should move somewhat against FSU's. I project this game to go very similarly to the FSU/USF game.
Fade away and good luck with your choices this week.
Army (+10) vs. Rutgers - Rutgers continues to be overrated, Army looks like a strong candidate to win this outright. My favorite pick of the weekend.
Idaho (+13) at Nevada - Nevada is very overrated in what looks to be a shootout between these schools. I don't foresee either stopping the other ... ever, which makes 13 just too much for Nevada to cover. Idaho continues to appear underrated, despite their recent successes.
Virginia (+4) vs. Georgia Tech - going the other way compared to just about everyone else here. Got this line before the injury news got out, however it's interesting to note that the line did not budge initially. These seems like a classic case of showy offense and no defense getting more respect than they deserve, particularly on the road where GT has been less than impressive. If I had to bet it today, however, I'd probably lay off due to the question mark by Sewell. If he his healthy, there's even better value on the current line for Virginia here.
Michigan (+4.5) vs. Penn State - Penn State remains slightly overrated, although I love their defense. However, this appears to be the first game where that defense will be put to a significant test. I also don't believe Penn St.'s passing attack can take advantage of Michigan's biggest weakness, their secondary. I also like this play a lot.
Central Michigan (-7) at Bowling Green - Central Michigan appears to be the best team in the MAC, solid on both ends of the ball; Bowling Green isn't particularly good anywhere. Power ratings favor CM here.
West Virginia (-7) vs. Connecticut - love WVU at home here, I believe folks have started to figure out that UConn is a decent team, but WVU is playing really solid all-around football and should take this comfortably in front of their home crowd. I'm really not sure how to handicap the stabbing incident, although the bet was made beforehand.
Northern Illinois (-11.5) at Miami (OH) - Northern Illinois came off a bad loss last week and I expect a bounce back here, against one of the worst teams in college football. I don't see Miami being able to stop NI's offense.
UTEP (+7) vs. Tulsa - Weekday night home dog. Tulsa is very, very overrated; they played some of the worst cupcakes in D-1 previously, and the home game against Boise was not as close as the final score indicated. UTEP has a good chance to win this outright. UTEP 28 - Tulsa 24 (Winner)
Temple (-1) at Toledo - that's right, sucker me jumped on this before it steamed to Toledo. I'm left scratching my head here as I know Toledo has some offense, but Temple continues to fly under the radar as a decent team with a solid defense. I'd say Toledo is getting too much credit for their gaudy offensive numbers, but I'd think early sharp money better than that. Well anyway, it's my pick and I still like it.
Duke (-6) vs. Maryland - Duke has been surprising this year, particularly on offense. I expect this to continue against a suspect Maryland team. I also believe Duke's maligned defense handles Maryland's inept offense, at least enough for a comfortable cover.
UNC (-2.5) vs. FSU - love, love, love UNC's defense, classic battle of strength vs. strength here. Going with UNC's defense to play at a high level and signficantly limit FSU's offense. UNC's offense, while fairly pathetic, should move somewhat against FSU's. I project this game to go very similarly to the FSU/USF game.
Fade away and good luck with your choices this week.
