Arkansas St. +2

HoulihansTX · 10-12-09, 11:13 PM

I leaned Ark St. in my thread.

Ark St. has played much tougher opponents than, Monroe. This should help Ark St., since in those losses they competed. Those games should make them a better team for it. Ark St. has played Troy. They lost, but came in a favorite(-2.5). Troy is the Best team in the Sun Belt.

Monroe has beat the cupcakes in the Sun Belt, and has gotten routed by the solid teams out of conference. Monroe has no defense to speak of, but neither does Ark St. This game was won by Ark last year 37-29. Maybe some revenge going on for Monroe. But the solid play is 57OVER. I predict another shoot-out.

Dbldown11 · 10-12-09, 11:14 PM

thanks for the thoughts houlihans...might throw some on over as well. but feeling real confident in St. +2

HoulihansTX · 10-12-09, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by Dbldown11

thanks for the thoughts houlihans...might throw some on over as well. but feeling real confident in St. +2

And you have reason to be.

Dbldown11 · 10-12-09, 11:29 PM

these are my favorite lines to bet...at first glance you have a 3-2 La Monroe team that is 2-0 in division and they are only -2 against a team that is 1-3 and 0-1 in division. EASY pick right? that's what most will think and that's why we get such an amazing line.

Ark. St. +2 and ML for me

HoulihansTX · 10-12-09, 11:32 PM

Originally posted by Dbldown11

these are my favorite lines to bet...at first glance you have a 3-2 La Monroe team that is 2-0 in division and they are only -2 against a team that is 1-3 and 0-1 in division. EASY pick right? that's what most will think and that's why we get such an amazing line. Ark. St. +2 and ML for me

My thoughts exactly. I didn't know Ark St's record, but while looking at the Iowa game I guessed they had a winning record.

Also you are on the opposite of the public. Always the way to go.

HoulihansTX · 10-12-09, 11:32 PM

Wow I got the OVER at 54. Total steal. Shoot-out like last year.

Dbldown11 · 10-12-09, 11:48 PM

WOW I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS GAME. everyone should jump on this line instantly!!!!!!!

look at arkansas st.'s schedule:

9/05 Mississippi Valley State 1-0 (0-0) W 61-0
9/12 @ No. 22 Nebraska 1-1 (0-0) L 38-9
9/26 Troy 1-2 (0-1) L 30-27
10/03 @ No. 13 Iowa 1-3 (0-1) L 24-21

Now look and La. Monroe's:

9/05 @ No. 2 Texas 0-1 (0-0) L 59-20
9/12 Texas Southern 1-1 (0-0) W 58-0
9/19 @ Arizona State 1-2 (0-0) L 38-14
9/26 @ Florida Atlantic 2-2 (1-0) W 27-25
10/03 Florida International 3-2 (2-0) W 48-35

So arkansas st. lost to Nebraska (like most teams in the nation would), and at Iowa in a close one.........

La. Monroe has 3 wins....THE COMBINED RECORD OF THE THREE TEAMS THEY BEAT IS 2-13

Dbldown11 · 10-12-09, 11:52 PM

and just for fun the 2 wins that account for the victories La. Monroes opponents have are against W. Kentucky by Fl. international....
and Texas Southern beat Texas College.

I AM SO JACKED FOR THIS GAME. I'm throwing 10 units on this game first thing in the morning because my book has night limits. Gonna be a big start to the week I feel

GatorFan · 10-12-09, 11:53 PM

I have to agree with you on Arkansas St. +2.

GatorFan · 10-12-09, 11:56 PM

Arkansas St. should be favored in this game....

Dbldown11 · 10-12-09, 11:57 PM

The past two weeks my Idaho pick was the pick that got me most excited.....this week IT'S THIS GAME

and to think I almost missed it entirely

GatorFan · 10-13-09, 12:03 AM

Arkansas St. probably win outright at least by 1 TD

HoulihansTX · 10-13-09, 12:08 AM

Parlay w/ the OVER 54 on a separate ticket. Make some money.

GatorFan · 10-13-09, 12:09 AM

UL Monroe has a powerful offense but they have no defense all. Arkansas St. defense have enough talent to slow down UL offense, and make chance for their offense take advantage on UL soft defense to win out the game

fishmonger · 10-13-09, 12:10 AM

well..

Iowa/Arkansas st was a sandwich game between penn st and Michigan so Iowa was primed for a flat game. loses for UL have been on the road vs good teams. This home game is huge for this program stepping forward in the sun belt and nation. First real home test for them too. They also beat Fla Atlantic at their house and they are the Sun Belt champs from last year.

I think UL covers with ease.

GatorFan · 10-13-09, 12:13 AM

There is only one thing that I don't like about arkansas st. is the line movement changed from -1 to +2. I hope it's not a trap

GatorFan · 10-13-09, 12:14 AM

I f*cking hate trappppppp

fishmonger · 10-13-09, 12:19 AM

Espn..

weeknight games do funny things to teams that never play in the national spotlight.

HoulihansTX · 10-13-09, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by fishmonger

Iowa/Arkansas st was a sandwich game between penn st and Michigan so Iowa was primed for a flat game. loses for UL have been on the road vs good teams. This home game is huge for this program stepping forward in the sun belt and nation. First real home test for them too. They also beat Fla Atlantic at their house and they are the Sun Belt champs from last year. I think UL covers with ease.

I totally disagree. Arizona St. didn't even cover the spread against Washington St last week, and those Florida teams are shit. I am going to discount TX since they are a BCS contender this year.

Troy is the run away favorite in the Sun Belt this year, and Ark St has giving them their best game to date. Plus Ark has played great on the road.

Sandwich game??? Iowa was home, and favored big B4 another home game against Mich.

Give Ark some credit they have gone (1-1)ATS in road games against nationally ranked teams. Plus Nebraska is the second best team in the Big 12. Yea I said it, 2nd best team.

GatorFan · 10-13-09, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

I totally disagree. Arizona St. didn't even cover the spread against Washington St last week, and those Florida teams are shit. I am going to discount TX since they are a BCS contender this year.

Troy is the run away favorite in the Sun Belt this year, and Ark St has giving them their best game to date. Plus Ark has played great on the road.

Sandwich game??? Iowa was home, and favored big B4 another home game against Mich.

Give Ark some credit they have gone (1-1)ATS in road games against nationally ranked teams. Plus Nebraska is the second best team in the Big 12. Yea I said it, 2nd best team.

fishmonger · 10-13-09, 12:50 AM

fair enough...

You have some valid points. But all Arkansas does is run the ball. UL can do both. And reggie arnold has struggled this year. If he beaks out it will be bad news to me

and good for you.

I believe this game hinges on his performance. And I think he'll come out flat.

But how can you say FAU is garbage with the top passer in the league? And being league champs a year ago?

I appreciate you putting your thoughts against mine and good luck to you on the rest of your games if their not opposite to mine.

HoulihansTX · 10-13-09, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by fishmonger

But how can you say FAU is garbage with the top passer in the league? And being league champs a year ago?

Because they cant win at home against teams with similar talent. They let Wyoming travel across 3 time zones, a couple thousand miles, and outlast them at home. I will not mention their bouts with out of conference foes, both on the road.

GatorFan · 10-13-09, 01:10 AM

F*ck the trap, if it is. I've just locked in Arkansas st. +2 . Good luck gent!

Intuitive_Edge · 10-13-09, 01:45 AM

everyone is on Ark State on here and others. Line went the other way though

Dbldown11 · 10-13-09, 07:23 AM

everyone is on ark st.? SBR lines showing 54% on UL Monroe, and that number will go up as the day goes on and the public looks to throw their money at a home team favorite for the only tuesday night game.

If you want to start your week of strong you'll take arkansas st ML. This one is very far off

as i suspected the percentage on La. Monroe is creeing up as more and more of the public starts to jump in on a slight home favorite. I can't wait for this one

Dbldown11 · 10-13-09, 07:36 AM

Originally posted by fishmonger

Iowa/Arkansas st was a sandwich game between penn st and Michigan so Iowa was primed for a flat game. loses for UL have been on the road vs good teams. This home game is huge for this program stepping forward in the sun belt and nation. First real home test for them too. They also beat Fla Atlantic at their house and they are the Sun Belt champs from last year.

I think UL covers with ease.

Fishmonger I like you....but I think you're way off here.

Losses for UL have been on the road against good teams? Yeah ok that's true, they got destroyed by Texas and Arizona St(not that good). But that doesnt show us anything.....You can't neccesarily say they are bad cause of that, but you certainly can't say they are good cause of it.

So from there lets look at the rest of their scheduel.....

Beat Texas Southern 58-0: That proves nothing as Texas St. beat texas southern 52-18, and Prairie View A&M beat them 17-7....the only team Texas Southern beat was Texas College.

Beat Florida Atlantic 27-25: Sure Fl. Atlantic was last years champs............so? This is this year. Florida Atlantic is 0-4 granted two of those are games you can't expect them to win....but they lost at home to this ULM team AND wyoming

Beat Florida International: Fl. Intl is 1-4. Even if we throw out the Alabama and Rutgers losses they are 1-2. They lost to a bad Toledo team, on this La Monroe team, The only team they beat is Western KY. and they are god awefull at 0-5 including a 28-7 loss to central arkansas

Arkansas St. only has one win, and granted it's against a bad team. However their only bad loss is getting beat up at Nebraska. Otherwise they played Troy (a good conference foe) very tight, and @ #11 Iowa they only lost by 3

I personally see a HUGE advantage for taking Arkansas St. +2 here and ML

williams22 · 10-13-09, 09:18 AM

I really like Arkansas St in this game as well. Anyone think the line could move to +3? If not, I may just take it ML, as I don't think +2 will come into play. I'm not sure about the over here, as I fear Arkansas St will eat lots of clock on each drive.

mmike032 · 10-13-09, 09:19 AM

70% on the over yet total has dropped to 53 at some shops

this according to pregame.com

TWEETS · 10-13-09, 09:49 AM

I usually stay away from O/U on weeknight games, these teams aren't use to the spotlight and it usually does funny things to them.

BigdaddyQH · 10-13-09, 09:53 AM

First, you are comparing lousy talkent to lousy talent. Always a danger there. This appears to be a bad line, but the fact is that this game is a very good situational game for Monroe. The two points probably means nothing. Arkansas State opened up at -1. I do not like games where lousy talent is involved. These games are designed to sucker in more money from the public. Pass.

Dbldown11 · 10-13-09, 09:57 AM

appreciate the thoughts bigdaddy......but people could say the same about idaho games the past two weeks and I saw their lines as easy money to be made. I view this game similarly with Ark. St. ML

minzino · 10-13-09, 10:11 AM

its dropping because there is a 100 precent rain in that game!! its gonna pour down!! also there are chances of thunderstorm!!

Dbldown11 · 10-13-09, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by minzino

its dropping because there is a 100 precent rain in that game!! its gonna pour down!! also there are chances of thunderstorm!!

ugh.....another weather factor game....BLAH. I'll stick with my play none-the-less

mcbaseball10 · 10-13-09, 10:39 AM

+2.5 at bodog, +3 @ -125...great stuff guys. Good to have more info on this game that think is probably a no bet because of the weather. Also watching Troy take down Midd Tenn. with ease has me baffled by this conference so far. Midd. Tenn is a good team that struggled on the road in the national spotlight. Does Ark. St. do the same under poor playing conditions?