so is nebraska the right pick? if they werent ranked or on tv?
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I just took your system, which we believe may start us with a slight advantage, and then capped each actual game as I would a regular game. So basically took your system and then only bet the actual match-ups that I liked most after analyzing offensive & defensive statistics, strength of schedule, home vs. away, result of last weeks game, performance against top 25, etc.
I have watched both Toledo and W. Michigan play and am just much more impressed with Toledo; they pass the ball better, their running game is much better, the QB (Opelt) is mobile and can run when he needs to, and the game is at home.Comment -
took the money line,,,central mich/utah/temple....lets see how it worksComment -
Added Fresno St -9.5 as last play. I bet them all equally, but threw down this 6 game parlay for the hell of it:
6-Team (11.38 to win $566.56 sportsbetting.com):
Kent +3
Fla Int -4.5
Fresno St -10
Marshall -4
Akron +4
Utah -7Comment -
This system has merit. I've used a similar system with the WNBA and Womans College ball. The major point to be emphasized is that the oddsmakers are not as savvy with these lesser known teams and they're more than likely softer lines. I do normally filter out teams that have much larger fanbase but by looking at the first few days tend to filter that out anyway.Comment -
Just for consolidation purposes, here are the plays:
KENT +6
MARSHALL -4
AKRON +4.5
UTAH -6.5
IDAHO +3
TEMPLE -13
UTAH ST -13
CENTRAL MICH -22 (bought 1pt ---> -21)
TOLEDO -7.5 (bought .5pt---> -7)
FLA INT'L -4
FRESNO STATE -9.5
6-Team Parlay:
Kent +3
Fla Int -4.5
Fresno St -10
Marshall -4
Akron +4
Utah -7Comment -
Thanks for sharing this cakas I'm going to check it out.Comment -
Caka, if i may ask are you also really capping the games or mainly just going with your system? What's your thoughts on the Ohio/Akron game here?Comment -
im not capping any of these games... just trusting the system. obviously, im more confident about certain plays based off the movement AFTER the initial 1pt shift. ill be honest, i have no thoughts about the ohio/akron game and dont really care to learn anything about either team. i have had many winning weekends strictly from this system without any capping involved, so i dont really see a purpose to putting any effort in that may even in the end sway my system choice.Comment -
Hey Cakas...Have You tried this in the nfl??
Thanx for all you do
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Have you tried this in the NFL?Comment -
no because every NFL game is greatly publicizedComment -
Keep up the good work! I love to dabble in these sorts of strategies. I'm following you on a couple.Comment -
cmu looking great. temple not that great, but tons of time left for that cover.Comment -
KENT +6
MARSHALL -4
AKRON +4.5
UTAH -6.5
IDAHO +3
TEMPLE -13
UTAH ST -13 CENTRAL MICH -22
TOLEDO -7.5
FLA INT'L -4
FRESNO STATE -9.5
6-Team Parlay:
Kent +3
Fla Int -4.5
Fresno St -10
Marshall -4
Akron +4
Utah -7Comment -
GL today manComment -
final record: 7-4
kent +6 win
marshall -4 win
akron +4.5 loss
utah -6.5 win
idaho +3 win
temple -13 loss
utah st -13 loss
central mich -22 win
toledo -7.5 loss
fla int'l -4 win
fresno state -9.5 winComment -
I wouldn't parlay these, just bet em straight up until this thing cools off. Looking good so farComment -
7-4 is great!! I made $150 ($50 each game/matchbook) on games I didn't know crap about. I like this system as a handicapping tool, and opens up games I would have generally never looked at.Comment -
Excellent job Cakas...Looking forward to next weekComment -
Cakas, please comment on how you include Utah -6.5 as a play. the line started at 6.5 . it went to 7 and then higher by Wed. ..... I guess 6.5 was still possible at machbook at very,very bad odds. is that how you played it at -6.5? ( that would be equivalent to buying points and I don't like depending on buying points or reporting it as part of this method) Otherwise this should be labeled as a loss because , by Wed, at 'normal' juice I don't think you could even get -7.
I haven't read the entire thread - if this was discussed, sorry.Comment -
3 of the 4 losses happened amongst the largest chalk. Looking back over your use of this angle, have you found this to be a common occurrence amongst the losers....(heavy?) chalk?
Appears to me that, at least where concerns weighing plays, a potential filter exists there HEAVY CHALK and its an interesting angle overall, I personally hope that you continue to post your thoughts on this system....ideally in a new thread each week along with what you've seen re: line movement. I think that if you do so it would make your own take on this (analysis) get sharper and valuable input would come from others.
Of course pain would lie in Homers whose input is "my team is totally great" and potentially distract from just the sheer playing of the "system".....
4 losing plays saw regression to the mean, a pulling back to (or significantly back towards) the initial line...with the possible exception of Akron but I believe I was seeing it at +4.5 (.5 movement from the original 5), it only ever moved 1 point to +4 anyway which, I am trying to say that perhaps it could have been foreseen that this was (these were) not a strong play(s)?
This true of Temple as well.....same deal really, it moved a point then traced back to end just .5 from the opening line:
TEMPLE/BallST (Open TEMPLE -13): This line first moved up 1/2pt (-13.5) in the first 20 min of opening. Then another 1/2pt 10 min later (-14). It held firm for one full day before dropping down 1/2pt to (13.5) and holding.
UTAHST/NewMexicoST (Open UTAHST -10.5): The line movement on this game started out looking very strong and consistent. It quickly jumped 1pt w/in 10min of opening, and 3pts within 30 min of opening to (-13.5). This line held for 2 days until dropping to (-12) and holding.
TOLEDO/W.Michigan (Open TOLEDO -7.5): This line moved 1 pt after the first day (-8.5) and held for about 1 day before dropping back 1pt to the ORIGINAL opening line (-7.5) 1 day later and holding.
AKRON/Ohio (Open AKRON +5): This line has been very straight forward much like Marshall/Tulane. Line moved 1pt after one day (5--> 4.5--> 4) before holding firm for 2 days.
I sense a filter existing in the ability to weigh line movement, place a "value" on such. I'd be interested in your thoughts on even eliminating altogether plays that regressed to within .5 of the opening line.
Kent/BGSU was a fascinating study and to me anyway suggests that there is something to what you've got here.
Open KENT +6.5: This line quickly jumped 1 point in the first day to (+5.5), then another 1.5pts to (+4) and has consistently continued to drop... holding now editor's note: (wednesday or thursday i assume) at (+3.5).
It was quite solidly Kent +1.5 by gametime and well before really......very large movement from the opening of +6.5.....game itself was excellent, ended with a TD by BGSU with 5 seconds left to make it 36-35. A Kent cover but just damn barely. To me this line move suggests "smart money" and smart money pounding a line over the course of a few days.....
Definitely what you are onto here though and what has been revealed at the least is that Toledo totally sucks. This thread was beneficial because it made me pay mind to the Toledo game which was important because one of the suites on the bottom floor of the skyscraper my office is in is occupied by a Cheerleader Crisis Line, a helpline for despondent cheerleaders to call into and get input on their problems, and the lady who runs it we have lunch together sometimes, I was able to call her as I saw the Toledo game unfolding and give her the heads up that she could expect some calls from the Toledo Cheer squad so she got less drunk than otherwise she would have on a Saturday, forwarded the office line to her celly and was able to provide comfort to members of the Toledo Cheer Squad whom had thrown down their pom-poms in rage and disgust and walked out of the stadium at about 6:36 into the 2nd quarter.....
I don't think they're gonna be willing to Cheer for Toledo again, theres a certain degree of Trauma of course.....prolly they won't be back but maybe.....
sometimes such things just take time.Comment -
i guess u are on to something keep up the good work bossComment -
Huge Saturday: thank you SBRForum!!
sorry, meant to start this as its own thread
anyway, great saturday. tons of winners and some big ones.
and basically got my best ideas from this forum. idaho, houston/msu UNDER come to mind... "i think i'm on to something" system won big too, although i wasn't on it.
encourage people to continue posting "this line doesn't seem right" threads even if they aren't complete experts on both teams.... also, i like the general civility on this forum, compared to others i've been on. it's all relative, of course
anyway, thanks again!!!Comment -
heavy chalk comments are interesting. and to certain degree the outcomes are arbitrary........ although i'd say those games mentioned weren't quite "back-door cover" country spreads.
can someone tabulate the ATS results vs. the closing lines (or the lines that were available for most of the week)???.... i obviously think OP can do much better himself or someone who follows lines religiously. but wondering about purely recreational guy who doesn't bird-dog lines all week.
cakas, thanks again and i think the system idea is fantastic. probably even more valuable for ncaab...
i don't think the NFL is a great idea for this, but maybe someone else could start that thread.Comment -
EDIT, OOPS on my subsequent post here. utah was a loss with final line vs. a win picking off earlier line. so that affects the results
here are the results as per final odds (as per vegasinsider). just to make clear, the system plays the initial move so it often gets much better lines. ksu is a prime example. healthy cover as per system. slim cover as per final line
ksu cover 0.5 points WIN
marshall cover 17 points WIN
akron loss 9 pts LOSS
utah cover 2 pts WIN (EDIT: actually a 2 point non-cover on late line)
idaho cover 9.5 points WIN
temple non-cover 9.5 points LOSS
utah state non-cover 13.5 points LOSS
cmu cover 24 WIN
toledo non-cover 40 LOSS
fiu cover 11.5 WIN
fresno state cover 14 WIN
the cover vs. non-cover is vs. the point spread, not the point spread itself. so 7-4 with final lines, same as grabbing earlier lines. and 2 games were close. KSU early pickup was big. have to check utah.
cakas, not to harass you yet again, but i wonder if we can do something with moneylines here.Comment -
A large component of this potential system would be the lack of exposure of the games.
That being said, immediate drastic line moves per NFL could prove to be I think worth "noting" as, mentioned earlier in this thread, public isn't jumping on early lines so stupid money isn't fueling those moves.
I see challenge with avoiding the "regression to the mean" plays though as one would want within this system to nab lines nearest to the opening line so time to wait to see if regression takes place.....
would not be afforded.......Comment
